Ark St - 3 tomorrow, free money boys, load up.

(10-27-2017 09:27 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Ark St - 3 tomorrow, free money boys, load up.

I'll likely bet on my boys but I damn sure don't think it is free money. That line dropped 3 points in a half hour for a reason, and it wasn't because big money slammed in on stAte.

General public money coming in on NMSU makes me like the play even more.

(10-27-2017 06:33 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(10-27-2017 10:34 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(10-27-2017 10:13 AM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(10-27-2017 09:58 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(10-27-2017 09:41 AM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  Projected Wins by ESPN FPI, in order of FPI Ranking

stAte 7.6
Troy 9.0
APP 8.9

NMSU 6.6

ULM 4.1
USA 4.8
GSU 6.4

ULL 4.5
Idaho 3.7

CC 3.0
GS 1.5

TXST 1.6

??? ESPN FPI has you going 10-2...

http://www.espn.com/college-football/tea...&year=2017

Nah - that would only be if they had each projected win at 100% probable.

If we had 3 games left at 66.666% probable for a win, then that would be 2-1 projection.

Look up higher to the right and it has 7.6-3.4 for stAte.

I think you guys win 9 or 10 for what it's worth. Interestingly, they have NMSU with a better chance to beat you guys than Troy, which is understandable considering the locations.

I watched NMSU play Arkansas and APP and their skill players are legit. They really pass the eye test. I've very concerned that NMSU could hand APP the SBC championship tomorrow.

They have a ton of talent, but we are deeper, and bigger. That's going to be a huge edge I think.

I worry about NMSU and ULM because they have offenses that can in theory, match us point for point if our defense has an off game. If our defense plays to its level though, we should be in good shape.

I pay no attention to vegas lines. General public money is almost always set to go on NMSU. They have played a tougher schedule, are even with us stat wise, and were a 7 point home dog. Home Dog's always get a lot of money from the betting public.

You can bet a significant amount of that late money coming in on NMSU is hog money as their bias is to prop up a former opponent that gave them a game while discrediting Ark St. Win by seven equates to a lot of hog tears.

(10-28-2017 04:22 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  You can bet a significant amount of that late money coming in on NMSU is hog money as their bias is to prop up a former opponent that gave them a game while discrediting Ark St. Win by seven equates to a lot of hog tears.

Could also be those who have noticed NMSU has done well against the spread this year.

(10-28-2017 04:22 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  You can bet a significant amount of that late money coming in on NMSU is hog money as their bias is to prop up a former opponent that gave them a game while discrediting Ark St. Win by seven equates to a lot of hog tears.

Razorback fans wouldn't be able to figure out how to place a bet. The money is going on NMSU because the Aggies are very good against the spread, are even with AState stat wise, and are a home dog.

None of that has anything to do with the result, seasoned gamblers don't know enough about either team to make a decision. Instead, they look at stats, schedules, and injuries to find lines that stand a decent shot to win them something. Most of them bet on multiple games as well, to offset the loss if one or two of the games don't go their way.

As a neutral observer, you've got an Arkansas State team without its starting RB that hasn't beaten anyone with a pulse yet, traveling over a thousand miles to play an NMSU team that hasn't beaten anyone with a pulse yet, but has come very close. None of those people have any actual clue about either team, or have watched enough of Arkansas State to know they are playing far better football than they were against SMU, they just know we're injured, traveling a long way, and playing a good team and are a favorite.

We’ve had good close games in the previous years, but this year won’t be. I think we pull away late and win by 21 pts.

(10-27-2017 10:05 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  General public money coming in on NMSU makes me like the play even more.

What source? Sports Insights has more bets on A-State.

https://www.sportsinsights.com/ncaaf/