(10-27-2017 06:40 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-27-2017 06:16 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-27-2017 11:11 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State is still in the running for a NY6 bowl. They could win out the rest of the way. UCF, USF, Navy and Memphis still could stumbled to lose 2 games. Toledo is not even ahead of Boise State in the rankings for their lone loss.

UCF
USF
Memphis
Boise State
Navy
San Diego State
Toledo

That is how they shape up. The top AAC schools still have to face each other.

And if any G5 school outside of the AAC runs the table, they wont beat a single top 25 team between now and then. On the other hand, whoever wins the AAC will have to beat one or more top 25 teams between today and the end of the season in order to win the AAC championship. Game over.

Lets say Boise State did beat Washington State earlier this year? they would have the better win over everybody. Of all the top 25 teams the teams played? Boise State tops everybody else in that department. UCLA and Maryland both sucked.

Other schools also mentioned outside the ones I talked about are Fresno State and Colorado State. So, Fresno State, Colorado State and Boise State still in the hunt to win the conference.
Memphis, UCF, USF and Navy are still in play.It will be a cluster fluck if all the G5 schools have 2 loses while Toledo with one lose, but of all the luck, they will chose Boise State over the other schools because of their better W/L record in the NY6 bowls.

yeah but they didn't. Sorry.....

Right now UCF, USF, and Memphis combined have a 56% chance of 1 of them winning out. And with that- it doesn't even include the chance of UCF or USF losing, but beating the other- and then the CCG(thus being a 1 loss champion). So odds are EXTREMLY high that the AAC will have a 0-1 loss champion. And will go up in the next 1-2 weeks.

Heck, would bring up that Boise themselves has only a 5.1% chance right now of winning out.

Until all of USF/UCF/Memphis lose at least ONE game they are favored in, the AAC champ is the NY6 representative.

(10-27-2017 06:40 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-27-2017 06:16 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-27-2017 11:11 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State is still in the running for a NY6 bowl. They could win out the rest of the way. UCF, USF, Navy and Memphis still could stumbled to lose 2 games. Toledo is not even ahead of Boise State in the rankings for their lone loss.

UCF
USF
Memphis
Boise State
Navy
San Diego State
Toledo

That is how they shape up. The top AAC schools still have to face each other.

And if any G5 school outside of the AAC runs the table, they wont beat a single top 25 team between now and then. On the other hand, whoever wins the AAC will have to beat one or more top 25 teams between today and the end of the season in order to win the AAC championship. Game over.

Lets say Boise State did beat Washington State earlier this year? they would have the better win over everybody. Of all the top 25 teams the teams played? Boise State tops everybody else in that department. UCLA and Maryland both sucked.

Other schools also mentioned outside the ones I talked about are Fresno State and Colorado State. So, Fresno State, Colorado State and Boise State still in the hunt to win the conference.
Memphis, UCF, USF and Navy are still in play.It will be a cluster fluck if all the G5 schools have 2 loses while Toledo with one lose, but of all the luck, they will chose Boise State over the other schools because of their better W/L record in the NY6 bowls.

If the MWC is still in the running, it is because SDSU wins the conference over Boise in a rematch. SDSU is the only contender with OOC wins against decent opponents. Arizona St. and especially Stanford are good wins. That *could* help the Aztecs overcome losses to Boise and Fresno (and if the AAC contenders falter down the stretch).

Fantasy "what if" scenarios do not cure the fact that Boise actually LOST to Washington St and Virginia...

...or that Fresno St. was smashed by Alabama and Washington...and just lost to UNLV (3-5) and hasn't won a single game over anyone other than SDSU. Seriously, here are Fresno's other wins:

New Mexico (3-5)
Nevada (1-7)
SJSU (1-8)
FCS

...or that Colorado St. lost to Colorado and Alabama...and Air Force (4-4). CSU's "big" win is over Oregon St. (1-7). But that's still probably better than any of their MWC wins:

Utah St. (4-5)
Hawaii (3-5)
New Mexico (3-5)
Nevada (1-7)

If UCF lose and Boise wins out, Boise gets it, as both losses were to P5.


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I hope you don't go to Vegas thinking any P5 automatically has an edge over a G5

(11-01-2017 07:21 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  If UCF lose and Boise wins out, Boise gets it, as both losses were to P5.


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Memphis says hello. Memphis actually has you know a win over a p5.

No, but a top 25 P5 and another from the ACC are very good for the purpose of the access bowl, though UCF still must lose and Boise must win out.


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If Memphis wins out, they are in the game. Period.
If USF wins out, they are in the game. Period.

not a damn thing Boise can do about it.

Think you re wrong but we shall see.


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(11-01-2017 08:53 PM)stever20 Wrote:  If Memphis wins out, they are in the game. Period.
If USF wins out, they are in the game. Period.

not a damn thing Boise can do about it.

But if SMU loses to UCF and then wins out from there? Not probable by any means, but far from impossible. An AAC champ at 10-3 would have an argument, but likely not enough to beat 12-1 Toledo or 11-2 Boise.

Lots of football left, the scenario we see today could be totally wiped out in 2 weeks


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If UCF goes 2-1 vs SMU, UConn, Temple- combined record 12-12, USF beats UConn and Tulsa- combined record of 5-12, and Memphis beats Tulsa, SMU, and ECU- combined record- 10-15- there is no hope at all for anyone else.

Really if Memphis beast SMU on the 18th- it's over.

UCF
Memphis
Boise State
USF
Toledo

Are in that order. If Memphis loses and UCF lose one and then lose in the AAC Championship game? Boise State would sneak in to get the spot.

(11-03-2017 09:33 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  UCF
Memphis
Boise State
USF
Toledo

Are in that order. If Memphis loses and UCF lose one and then lose in the AAC Championship game? Boise State would sneak in to get the spot.

Sorry but Boise has almost no shot. Frankly they may be behind Toledo, and also quite frankly SMU. IF SMU runs the table- they beat UCF, Memphis, and then either UCF or USF.

For Boise to get in ahead of the AAC they need the AAC to have a 3 loss fluke champion. It's not happening.

(11-03-2017 09:52 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-03-2017 09:33 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  UCF
Memphis
Boise State
USF
Toledo

Are in that order. If Memphis loses and UCF lose one and then lose in the AAC Championship game? Boise State would sneak in to get the spot.

Sorry but Boise has almost no shot. Frankly they may be behind Toledo, and also quite frankly SMU. IF SMU runs the table- they beat UCF, Memphis, and then either UCF or USF.

For Boise to get in ahead of the AAC they need the AAC to have a 3 loss fluke champion. It's not happening.

Memphis, SMU and Toledo along with USF have no history about winning in the access bowl. Boise State have the most wins. UCF only have one win. Boise State's is a known quality team in the access bowl than any of the teams you mention. Boise got in over a 1 lost Marshall when Boise State had two loses.

(11-04-2017 05:49 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(11-03-2017 09:52 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-03-2017 09:33 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  .

Sorry but Boise has almost no shot. Frankly they may be behind Toledo, and also quite frankly SMU. IF SMU runs the table- they beat UCF, Memphis, and then either UCF or USF.

For Boise to get in ahead of the AAC they need the AAC to have a 3 loss fluke champion. It's not happening.

Memphis, SMU and Toledo along with USF have no history about winning in the access bowl. Boise State have the most wins. UCF only have one win. Boise State's is a known quality team in the access bowl than any of the teams you mention. Boise got in over a 1 lost Marshall when Boise State had two loses.

Boise got in over a Marshall who had the weakest schedule in Div 1 football. The odds of Boise getting in are 10%. It will take a perfect storm of mishaps in AAC.

(11-04-2017 05:49 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(11-03-2017 09:52 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-03-2017 09:33 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  UCF
Memphis
Boise State
USF
Toledo

Are in that order. If Memphis loses and UCF lose one and then lose in the AAC Championship game? Boise State would sneak in to get the spot.

Sorry but Boise has almost no shot. Frankly they may be behind Toledo, and also quite frankly SMU. IF SMU runs the table- they beat UCF, Memphis, and then either UCF or USF.

For Boise to get in ahead of the AAC they need the AAC to have a 3 loss fluke champion. It's not happening.

Memphis, SMU and Toledo along with USF have no history about winning in the access bowl. Boise State have the most wins. UCF only have one win. Boise State's is a known quality team in the access bowl than any of the teams you mention. Boise got in over a 1 lost Marshall when Boise State had two loses.

Zero chance. In 2014 Boise had 11 wins and dominated in its wins. This year, Boise has zero P5 wins and has not been dominant in conference play. In 2014 the AAC has 3 teams tied for the championship and none had more than 10 wins (no AAC CCG that year). Marshall had a horrible schedule and was finished when they lost. Marshall's only claim to access bowl was being undefeated. Playing in a extremely weak CUSA, no P5 wins, and having no challenge in OOC doomed Marshall if they had any slip up. Boise is out unless they have more wins than the AAC champ—they were blown out by Virginia and the access bowl opponent will be better than Virginia.

(11-04-2017 05:49 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(11-03-2017 09:52 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-03-2017 09:33 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  UCF
Memphis
Boise State
USF
Toledo

Are in that order. If Memphis loses and UCF lose one and then lose in the AAC Championship game? Boise State would sneak in to get the spot.

Sorry but Boise has almost no shot. Frankly they may be behind Toledo, and also quite frankly SMU. IF SMU runs the table- they beat UCF, Memphis, and then either UCF or USF.

For Boise to get in ahead of the AAC they need the AAC to have a 3 loss fluke champion. It's not happening.

Memphis, SMU and Toledo along with USF have no history about winning in the access bowl. Boise State have the most wins. UCF only have one win. Boise State's is a known quality team in the access bowl than any of the teams you mention. Boise got in over a 1 lost Marshall when Boise State had two loses.

completely and utterly meaningless.

Unless the sun starts rising in the west, the AAC champ has the access bowl, which would then almost certainly be the Peach.

(11-04-2017 11:25 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Unless the sun starts rising in the west, the AAC champ has the access bowl, which would then almost certainly be the Peach.

It's extremely probable, but not a certainty. As I mentioned earlier, the following scenario, while unlikely, could result in another conference getting it:

1. SMU loses to UCF, but wins out to capture the AAC West on the Memphis tiebreaker.
2. SMU then beats the East champ to land at 10-3 with good wins versus against UCF/USF, Memphis, and Arkansas State and losses to TCU, Houston, and UCF.
3A. Toledo wins out, finishing with their best wins against Ohio, NIU, and Akron with their only loss being to The U.
3B. Boise State wins out, with wins against SDSU, Colorado State, and Troy and losses to Wazzu and UVa.

Then it's in the hand of the committee. SMU has better wins at the end of the day, but losses matter and they'd have three. Toledo or Boise get the bid if their loss teams keep playing well; even with no big wins a 12-win Toledo team with their only loss to the CFP-bound Canes has a legit argument.

For the record I think UCF will win out, they're for real. But until Toledo and Boise lose or Memphis wins the West over SMU, it's not locked in imo.