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NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
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DavidSt Online
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Post: #61
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(11-04-2017 12:09 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  
(11-04-2017 11:25 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Unless the sun starts rising in the west, the AAC champ has the access bowl, which would then almost certainly be the Peach.

It's extremely probable, but not a certainty. As I mentioned earlier, the following scenario, while unlikely, could result in another conference getting it:

1. SMU loses to UCF, but wins out to capture the AAC West on the Memphis tiebreaker.
2. SMU then beats the East champ to land at 10-3 with good wins versus against UCF/USF, Memphis, and Arkansas State and losses to TCU, Houston, and UCF.
3A. Toledo wins out, finishing with their best wins against Ohio, NIU, and Akron with their only loss being to The U.
3B. Boise State wins out, with wins against SDSU, Colorado State, and Troy and losses to Wazzu and UVa.

Then it's in the hand of the committee. SMU has better wins at the end of the day, but losses matter and they'd have three. Toledo or Boise get the bid if their loss teams keep playing well; even with no big wins a 12-win Toledo team with their only loss to the CFP-bound Canes has a legit argument.

For the record I think UCF will win out, they're for real. But until Toledo and Boise lose or Memphis wins the West over SMU, it's not locked in imo.


Boise State is inside the top 30 for the playoffs. SMU is nowhere in the top 30. toledo is not inside the top 30. UCF is like 25th. USF is behind Boise State with their lost. Boise's next tough opponent is Air Force. As it is, UCF do not have the room to screw up. If they lose? boise State will sneak in ahead of UCF. There is really no love for the AAC this year. They had Houston ranked as high as number 6, and stumbled to three losses. That is why you do not see UCF anywhere near the top 10 in all the polls.
11-04-2017 12:38 PM
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dwalker85 Offline
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Post: #62
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(11-04-2017 12:38 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(11-04-2017 12:09 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  
(11-04-2017 11:25 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Unless the sun starts rising in the west, the AAC champ has the access bowl, which would then almost certainly be the Peach.

It's extremely probable, but not a certainty. As I mentioned earlier, the following scenario, while unlikely, could result in another conference getting it:

1. SMU loses to UCF, but wins out to capture the AAC West on the Memphis tiebreaker.
2. SMU then beats the East champ to land at 10-3 with good wins versus against UCF/USF, Memphis, and Arkansas State and losses to TCU, Houston, and UCF.
3A. Toledo wins out, finishing with their best wins against Ohio, NIU, and Akron with their only loss being to The U.
3B. Boise State wins out, with wins against SDSU, Colorado State, and Troy and losses to Wazzu and UVa.

Then it's in the hand of the committee. SMU has better wins at the end of the day, but losses matter and they'd have three. Toledo or Boise get the bid if their loss teams keep playing well; even with no big wins a 12-win Toledo team with their only loss to the CFP-bound Canes has a legit argument.

For the record I think UCF will win out, they're for real. But until Toledo and Boise lose or Memphis wins the West over SMU, it's not locked in imo.


Boise State is inside the top 30 for the playoffs. SMU is nowhere in the top 30. toledo is not inside the top 30. UCF is like 25th. USF is behind Boise State with their lost. Boise's next tough opponent is Air Force. As it is, UCF do not have the room to screw up. If they lose? boise State will sneak in ahead of UCF. There is really no love for the AAC this year. They had Houston ranked as high as number 6, and stumbled to three losses. That is why you do not see UCF anywhere near the top 10 in all the polls.

Huh? 01-wingedeagle

The CFP rankings are 1-25... There are no "Others receiving votes." UCF is 18th. Memphis is 23rd. Boise is, well, no where to be found. And I don't expect that to change any time soon.

UCF beat a P5 in Maryland, but Houston had beaten a #3 ranked OU team last year. That's how they climbed so high in the rankings. If UCF had played (and won) the game vs GT, maybe they're a couple of spots higher in the rankings, but that's probably it. Nothing to the magnitude of Houston's win over OU.
(This post was last modified: 11-04-2017 02:03 PM by dwalker85.)
11-04-2017 02:02 PM
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DavidSt Online
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Post: #63
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
Boise State beat a top 25 San Diego State, and could have won a top 25 team against Washington State. Boise State's SOS is tougher than UCF's right now. Memphis losing to Navy might have hurt their chances.
11-04-2017 04:43 PM
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rtaylor Offline
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RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(11-04-2017 12:38 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(11-04-2017 12:09 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  
(11-04-2017 11:25 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Unless the sun starts rising in the west, the AAC champ has the access bowl, which would then almost certainly be the Peach.

It's extremely probable, but not a certainty. As I mentioned earlier, the following scenario, while unlikely, could result in another conference getting it:

1. SMU loses to UCF, but wins out to capture the AAC West on the Memphis tiebreaker.
2. SMU then beats the East champ to land at 10-3 with good wins versus against UCF/USF, Memphis, and Arkansas State and losses to TCU, Houston, and UCF.
3A. Toledo wins out, finishing with their best wins against Ohio, NIU, and Akron with their only loss being to The U.
3B. Boise State wins out, with wins against SDSU, Colorado State, and Troy and losses to Wazzu and UVa.

Then it's in the hand of the committee. SMU has better wins at the end of the day, but losses matter and they'd have three. Toledo or Boise get the bid if their loss teams keep playing well; even with no big wins a 12-win Toledo team with their only loss to the CFP-bound Canes has a legit argument.

For the record I think UCF will win out, they're for real. But until Toledo and Boise lose or Memphis wins the West over SMU, it's not locked in imo.


Boise State is inside the top 30 for the playoffs. SMU is nowhere in the top 30. toledo is not inside the top 30. UCF is like 25th. USF is behind Boise State with their lost. Boise's next tough opponent is Air Force. As it is, UCF do not have the room to screw up. If they lose? boise State will sneak in ahead of UCF. There is really no love for the AAC this year. They had Houston ranked as high as number 6, and stumbled to three losses. That is why you do not see UCF anywhere near the top 10 in all the polls.

Top 30? 03-lmfao
11-04-2017 07:03 PM
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gulfcoastgal Offline
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Post: #65
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(11-04-2017 04:43 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State beat a top 25 San Diego State, and could have won a top 25 team against Washington State. Boise State's SOS is tougher than UCF's right now. Memphis losing to Navy might have hurt their chances.

Is this another one of those hypotheticals? If so, I agree that if Memphis would have lost to Navy then it might have hurt their chances.
11-04-2017 07:38 PM
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PGEMF Offline
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RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(11-04-2017 04:43 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State beat a top 25 San Diego State, and could have won a top 25 team against Washington State. Boise State's SOS is tougher than UCF's right now. Memphis losing to Navy might have hurt their chances.

By this logic Bama beat a Top 3 Florida State
11-04-2017 07:40 PM
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RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
If the following occurs:

8-0 UCF beats 3-6 UConn in Orlando on 11/11
8-1 USF beats 2-8 Tulsa in Tampa on 11/16
8-0 UCF beats 4-5 Temple in Philly on 11/18
8-1 Memphis beats 6-3 SMU in Memphis on 11/18**
8-1 Memphis beats 2-7 ECU in Memphis on 11/25

Then the American title game will contain the top 2 ranked G5 teams and will be a "Play In" game for the NY6 bowl.

Futher, the UCF/USF game on 11/24 will be a "semifinal" game for a NY6 bid.

** The only game on the list expected to be closer than 2 TDs
(This post was last modified: 11-06-2017 07:21 AM by CougarRed.)
11-04-2017 10:34 PM
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Post: #68
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(11-04-2017 10:34 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  If the following occurs:

8-0 UCF beats 3-6 UConn in Orlando on 11/11
8-1 USF beats 2-8 Tulsa in Tampa on 11/16
8-0 UCF beats 4-5 Temple in Philly on 11/18
8-1 Memphis beats 6-3 SMU in Memphis on 11/18**
8-1 Memphis beats 2-7 ECU in Memphis on 11/25

Then the American title game will contain the top 2 ranked G5 teams and will be a "Play In" game for the NY6 bowl.

Futher, the UCF/USF game on 11/24 will be a "semifinal" game for a NY6 bid.

** The only game on the list expected to be closer than 3 TDs

and would say of the 1st 3 things if UCF were to lose 1 of their 2 games on your list- the UCF/USF game would still be the semifinal game for the NY6 slot. And the winner of that game/Memphis would be the play in game.
11-04-2017 10:39 PM
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Post: #69
NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
If UCF loses a-game and Boise wins out, Boise is in.


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11-05-2017 12:50 AM
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RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(11-05-2017 12:50 AM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  If UCF loses a-game and Boise wins out, Boise is in.


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Not a chance. If Memphis or USF or UCF for that matter are champions with 1 loss, they are in. Boise needs the champion to have at least 2 losses to have any prayer.
11-05-2017 12:58 AM
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RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
Heavyweight battle in the MAC this Wednesday.

Ohio 7-2 hosting Toledo 8-1.

Last year Ohio was 5-3 played @ Toledo 6-1 in Toledo and won 31-26.

Ohio is #14 in the country at 39.0ppg.
Toledo is #15 in the country at 38.0ppg.

W.Michigan is next in the MAC at 33.6ppg (31st overall).
11-05-2017 01:13 AM
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Kittonhead Online
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RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
Red Zone scores per game.

1. Ohio St. 5.2
2. Oklahoma St. 4.9
3. Oklahoma 4.6
4. UCF 4.3
5. Virginia Tech 4.3
6. Ohio 4.2
7. Washington 4.1
8. Auburn 4.1
9. Alabama 4.1
10. USF 4.0
11. ULM 4.0
12. Toledo 4.0

This year's Ohio team has a vastly improved offense than the one which defeated Toledo in 2016.

The game in 2016 was also won by Ohio's second string QB and second string RB having good games. Both are on the bench this year behind the first stringers.
11-05-2017 01:33 AM
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NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(11-05-2017 12:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 12:50 AM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  If UCF loses a-game and Boise wins out, Boise is in.


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Not a chance. If Memphis or USF or UCF for that matter are champions with 1 loss, they are in. Boise needs the champion to have at least 2 losses to have any prayer.


We shall see.


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(This post was last modified: 11-05-2017 03:48 PM by Jjoey52.)
11-05-2017 03:47 PM
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RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(11-05-2017 12:50 AM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  If UCF loses a-game and Boise wins out, Boise is in.


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False, if Memphis or USF win out they'll go over Boise State.

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11-05-2017 04:17 PM
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RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(11-05-2017 04:17 PM)Insane_Baboon Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 12:50 AM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  If UCF loses a-game and Boise wins out, Boise is in.


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False, if Memphis or USF win out they'll go over Boise State.

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If USF and Memphis lose another game, and UCF loses 2 more? Boise State is in. Boise State have the better win of SOS. San Diego State they beat who beat Stanford.

UCF's only strong team they won was Memphis, but it would be moot since Memphis's beat UCLA who is 4-5. USF only strong opponent that they beat was a 7-2 Stony Brook. Boise's lose was to Washington State at 8-2 (should have won) and Virginia at 6-3 and only 2 games behind Miami for the Coastal Champion.

The issue is the more P5 schools that they beat loses more games? The AAC's schedule becomes weaker compared to the MWC schools.
11-05-2017 05:54 PM
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Insane_Baboon Offline
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RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(11-05-2017 05:54 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 04:17 PM)Insane_Baboon Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 12:50 AM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  If UCF loses a-game and Boise wins out, Boise is in.


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False, if Memphis or USF win out they'll go over Boise State.

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If USF and Memphis lose another game, and UCF loses 2 more? Boise State is in. Boise State have the better win of SOS. San Diego State they beat who beat Stanford.

UCF's only strong team they won was Memphis, but it would be moot since Memphis's beat UCLA who is 4-5. USF only strong opponent that they beat was a 7-2 Stony Brook. Boise's lose was to Washington State at 8-2 (should have won) and Virginia at 6-3 and only 2 games behind Miami for the Coastal Champion.

The issue is the more P5 schools that they beat loses more games? The AAC's schedule becomes weaker compared to the MWC schools.
So you agree then, there are 3 AAC teams ahead of Boise State, not just UCF. If any of those AAC teams win out, they'll be in.

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11-05-2017 05:56 PM
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DavidSt Online
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RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(11-05-2017 05:56 PM)Insane_Baboon Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 05:54 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 04:17 PM)Insane_Baboon Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 12:50 AM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  If UCF loses a-game and Boise wins out, Boise is in.


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False, if Memphis or USF win out they'll go over Boise State.

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If USF and Memphis lose another game, and UCF loses 2 more? Boise State is in. Boise State have the better win of SOS. San Diego State they beat who beat Stanford.

UCF's only strong team they won was Memphis, but it would be moot since Memphis's beat UCLA who is 4-5. USF only strong opponent that they beat was a 7-2 Stony Brook. Boise's lose was to Washington State at 8-2 (should have won) and Virginia at 6-3 and only 2 games behind Miami for the Coastal Champion.

The issue is the more P5 schools that they beat loses more games? The AAC's schedule becomes weaker compared to the MWC schools.
So you agree then, there are 3 AAC teams ahead of Boise State, not just UCF. If any of those AAC teams win out, they'll be in.

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Not necessarily. Marshall had a much better record than Boise State, but Boise was picked over Marshall. Boise was a much better match up than Marshall. So far, I have seen the three AAC schools struggle against weaker teams in their conference like Houston, Tulsa, Tulane and UConn. They sometimes squeak out victories while Boise State won in larger point margins.
11-05-2017 06:00 PM
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otown Offline
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RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(11-05-2017 06:00 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 05:56 PM)Insane_Baboon Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 05:54 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 04:17 PM)Insane_Baboon Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 12:50 AM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  If UCF loses a-game and Boise wins out, Boise is in.


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False, if Memphis or USF win out they'll go over Boise State.

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If USF and Memphis lose another game, and UCF loses 2 more? Boise State is in. Boise State have the better win of SOS. San Diego State they beat who beat Stanford.

UCF's only strong team they won was Memphis, but it would be moot since Memphis's beat UCLA who is 4-5. USF only strong opponent that they beat was a 7-2 Stony Brook. Boise's lose was to Washington State at 8-2 (should have won) and Virginia at 6-3 and only 2 games behind Miami for the Coastal Champion.

The issue is the more P5 schools that they beat loses more games? The AAC's schedule becomes weaker compared to the MWC schools.
So you agree then, there are 3 AAC teams ahead of Boise State, not just UCF. If any of those AAC teams win out, they'll be in.

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Not necessarily. Marshall had a much better record than Boise State, but Boise was picked over Marshall. Boise was a much better match up than Marshall. So far, I have seen the three AAC schools struggle against weaker teams in their conference like Houston, Tulsa, Tulane and UConn. They sometimes squeak out victories while Boise State won in larger point margins.

Sorry to burst your bubble of grasping straws........ you mentioned 3 AAC teams..... so you are including UCF. What weak teams did they struggle against?
11-05-2017 06:12 PM
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DavidSt Online
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RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(11-05-2017 06:12 PM)otown Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 06:00 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 05:56 PM)Insane_Baboon Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 05:54 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 04:17 PM)Insane_Baboon Wrote:  False, if Memphis or USF win out they'll go over Boise State.

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If USF and Memphis lose another game, and UCF loses 2 more? Boise State is in. Boise State have the better win of SOS. San Diego State they beat who beat Stanford.

UCF's only strong team they won was Memphis, but it would be moot since Memphis's beat UCLA who is 4-5. USF only strong opponent that they beat was a 7-2 Stony Brook. Boise's lose was to Washington State at 8-2 (should have won) and Virginia at 6-3 and only 2 games behind Miami for the Coastal Champion.

The issue is the more P5 schools that they beat loses more games? The AAC's schedule becomes weaker compared to the MWC schools.
So you agree then, there are 3 AAC teams ahead of Boise State, not just UCF. If any of those AAC teams win out, they'll be in.

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Not necessarily. Marshall had a much better record than Boise State, but Boise was picked over Marshall. Boise was a much better match up than Marshall. So far, I have seen the three AAC schools struggle against weaker teams in their conference like Houston, Tulsa, Tulane and UConn. They sometimes squeak out victories while Boise State won in larger point margins.

Sorry to burst your bubble of grasping straws........ you mentioned 3 AAC teams..... so you are including UCF. What weak teams did they struggle against?


Houston, Tulsa, Navy, UConn., Tulane, East Carolina are a few. USF had some close wins against weaker OOC teams.
11-05-2017 06:43 PM
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RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(11-04-2017 12:09 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  
(11-04-2017 11:25 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Unless the sun starts rising in the west, the AAC champ has the access bowl, which would then almost certainly be the Peach.

It's extremely probable, but not a certainty. As I mentioned earlier, the following scenario, while unlikely, could result in another conference getting it:

1. SMU loses to UCF, but wins out to capture the AAC West on the Memphis tiebreaker.
2. SMU then beats the East champ to land at 10-3 with good wins versus against UCF/USF, Memphis, and Arkansas State and losses to TCU, Houston, and UCF.
3A. Toledo wins out, finishing with their best wins against Ohio, NIU, and Akron with their only loss being to The U.
3B. Boise State wins out, with wins against SDSU, Colorado State, and Troy and losses to Wazzu and UVa.

Then it's in the hand of the committee. SMU has better wins at the end of the day, but losses matter and they'd have three. Toledo or Boise get the bid if their loss teams keep playing well; even with no big wins a 12-win Toledo team with their only loss to the CFP-bound Canes has a legit argument.

For the record I think UCF will win out, they're for real. But until Toledo and Boise lose or Memphis wins the West over SMU, it's not locked in imo.

LOL. Give me a little poetic license. Everybody who has basic math skills understands it's still possible for it to go south on the AAC.

Unless SMU wins at Navy this Saturday, (Memphis has a bye), SMU can't win the West, even if they beat Memphis, as long as Memphis doesn't also lose to ECU.

SMU is an underdog to Navy with a 41.9% chance of winning.

Right now, SMU also is an underdog at Memphis with a 22.7% chance of winning.

And they still have to play Tulane (75.9% chance).

So, SMU has a 7% chance of sweeping those 3.

If they did all that, THEN they would have to beat either UCF or USF on the road. They might have a 22% chance or less.

That gives SMU about a 1.5% chance of winning the AAC and triggering your scenario.
11-05-2017 06:44 PM
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