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NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
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Sellular1 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-26-2017 01:41 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I haven't run the numbers, but is there a possible scenario when the NY6 bowl slot goes to an AAC team that does not win the AAC Championship?

To get the slot, one HAS to be the conf champ. Doesn't matter the ranking
10-26-2017 01:45 PM
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Stay Cool Offline
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Post: #22
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-26-2017 01:41 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I haven't run the numbers, but is there a possible scenario when the NY6 bowl slot goes to an AAC team that does not win the AAC Championship?
No, must be a conference champ

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10-26-2017 04:05 PM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #23
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
The UCF-USF loser (ie, non-champ) has a shot at an NY6 bowl. The Big 12, PAC, and ACC+Notre Dame will beat up on each other down the stretch and a few teams that are in the current top 10-20 rankings will fall - some more than once. It just depends on how much they beat up each other. A couple more Syracuse-Clemson, ISU-Oklahoma, and ASU-Washington type upsets would help.

So, it's *possible* for a top-ten UCF-USF matchup. In that instance, the loser in a close game could stay ranked just ahead of the 3-loss P5 contenders. The loser would sit at home and watch yet other NY6 contenders lose in their conference championship games - conceivably paving the way to for both UCF and USF to make an NY6 bowl game - one as AAC champ and the other as a top-12 at large selection.

But, in reality, who am I kidding? The CFP selection committee will surely rank someone else into the NY6 ahead of the UCF/USF loser. Too many justifications available.
10-26-2017 04:28 PM
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Post: #24
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-25-2017 10:12 PM)cotton1991 Wrote:  
(10-25-2017 09:12 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  So I guess the question is, what would it take for another team to get it. Multiple losses by AAC? Memphis winning AAC? Boise winning MWC?

If Memphis runs the table and wins the CCG they're a shoe-in imho.

I'd agree since it would mean both USF and UCF would have a loss... but moreso that the slot goes to (by rule) a G5 conference champion. Basically, whomever our Champ is... they are almost a lock for the access bowl.
10-26-2017 04:47 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-25-2017 09:08 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Are there any legitimate contenders for the NY6 bowl for the so called "G5" outside of the AAC, or do you think it is locked up for USF, UCF, or Memphis? If there are other contenders, who are they? Curious as to the general thought process. Marshall? Boise St?

At this point, probably a 95% chance that the NY6 bowl goes to an AAC team. Would take a series of unlikely events, namely UCF and USF both losing two games from here on out, plus SDSU winning out and Stanford having a huge finish, for it to happen.

It's really hard to envision any kind of likely scenario that doesn't result in an AAC team in the NY6 game.

Basically, about the same chance that the Patriots had of winning the Super Bowl late in the third quarter, or UCLA had of beating TAMU at the same time of their game. It can happen, but ....
(This post was last modified: 10-26-2017 06:32 PM by quo vadis.)
10-26-2017 06:31 PM
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otown Offline
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Post: #26
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
If Memphis didn't play UCF already and was undefeated this season, I wonder if they would have gone as an "At Large" team if they lost to UCF/USF in the AACCG. Likewise, would UCF/USF have gone as an "At Large" in a similar reverse circumstance?
10-26-2017 08:44 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-26-2017 06:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-25-2017 09:08 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Are there any legitimate contenders for the NY6 bowl for the so called "G5" outside of the AAC, or do you think it is locked up for USF, UCF, or Memphis? If there are other contenders, who are they? Curious as to the general thought process. Marshall? Boise St?

At this point, probably a 95% chance that the NY6 bowl goes to an AAC team. Would take a series of unlikely events, namely UCF and USF both losing two games from here on out, plus SDSU winning out and Stanford having a huge finish, for it to happen.

It's really hard to envision any kind of likely scenario that doesn't result in an AAC team in the NY6 game.

Basically, about the same chance that the Patriots had of winning the Super Bowl late in the third quarter, or UCLA had of beating TAMU at the same time of their game. It can happen, but ....

SDSU winning out is almost certainly a moot point. SDSU needs Fresno to lose 3 of their final 4 MWC games to just win the division. Considering Fresno has left in MWC play UNLV, Hawaii, Wyoming, and Boise- that's not happening.
10-26-2017 10:06 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #28
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-26-2017 08:44 PM)otown Wrote:  If Memphis didn't play UCF already and was undefeated this season, I wonder if they would have gone as an "At Large" team if they lost to UCF/USF in the AACCG. Likewise, would UCF/USF have gone as an "At Large" in a similar reverse circumstance?

In a word, no. The odds of two G5 teams ever making the NY6 are extremely small in any event, and from the same conference basically zero. There isn't any way a non-champ G5 team is getting over P5 powerhouse. Basically, when a G5 team loses, they tumble far down the rankings, no way a G5 team loses late and stays in the top 12, which is about where you need to be.

This year, there was a slight chance it could have happened, very slight, but it would have had to be a multi-conference thing, like if say unbeaten AAC champ UCF had gotten the NY6 bid, and then you also had unbeaten MWC champ SDSU, with a win over a powerful Stanford team, also eligible. Maybe, just maybe, SDSU could have gotten in too. But that went out the window when SDSU lost.
(This post was last modified: 10-27-2017 06:11 AM by quo vadis.)
10-27-2017 06:10 AM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #29
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-26-2017 04:05 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  
(10-26-2017 01:41 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I haven't run the numbers, but is there a possible scenario when the NY6 bowl slot goes to an AAC team that does not win the AAC Championship?
No, must be a conference champ

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Why anyone cannot get this I simply don't understand.
10-27-2017 06:16 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-27-2017 06:16 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(10-26-2017 04:05 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  
(10-26-2017 01:41 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I haven't run the numbers, but is there a possible scenario when the NY6 bowl slot goes to an AAC team that does not win the AAC Championship?
No, must be a conference champ

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Why anyone cannot get this I simply don't understand.

In fairness, the only thing wrong with the original question was the use of the term "the" instead of "a", because there's no rule that precludes a non-champ G5 team from getting into the NY6 as an at-large team. They just can't get "the" designated NY6 spot that's reserved by rule for the top G5 champ.

And maybe the former is how he meant the question?
(This post was last modified: 10-27-2017 06:30 AM by quo vadis.)
10-27-2017 06:29 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #31
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-26-2017 04:28 PM)YNot Wrote:  The UCF-USF loser (ie, non-champ) has a shot at an NY6 bowl. The Big 12, PAC, and ACC+Notre Dame will beat up on each other down the stretch and a few teams that are in the current top 10-20 rankings will fall - some more than once. It just depends on how much they beat up each other. .....

But, in reality, who am I kidding? The CFP selection committee will surely rank someone else into the NY6 ahead of the UCF/USF loser. Too many justifications available.

Yes, while it's theoretically possible, it won't happen, but actually for a good reason, not anti-G5 bias: The AAC has zero accomplishments versus the P5 this season. Not a single win vs P5 worth mentioning. The best P5 win that either UCF or USF have is UCF's win over Maryland, and Maryland is a 3-4 team, in 6th place in one of the B1G divisions, unlikely to even be bowl-eligible this year.

So the loser of their game won't have any accomplishments vs the P5 worth pointing to, and getting an NY6 at-large slot is about beating out P5 teams.
(This post was last modified: 10-27-2017 06:36 AM by quo vadis.)
10-27-2017 06:34 AM
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Post: #32
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-27-2017 06:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-26-2017 04:28 PM)YNot Wrote:  The UCF-USF loser (ie, non-champ) has a shot at an NY6 bowl. The Big 12, PAC, and ACC+Notre Dame will beat up on each other down the stretch and a few teams that are in the current top 10-20 rankings will fall - some more than once. It just depends on how much they beat up each other. .....

But, in reality, who am I kidding? The CFP selection committee will surely rank someone else into the NY6 ahead of the UCF/USF loser. Too many justifications available.

Yes, while it's theoretically possible, it won't happen, but actually for a good reason, not anti-G5 bias: The AAC has zero accomplishments versus the P5 this season. Not a single win vs P5 worth mentioning. The best P5 win that either UCF or USF have is UCF's win over Maryland, and Maryland is a 3-4 team, in 6th place in one of the B1G divisions, unlikely to even be bowl-eligible this year.

So the loser of their game won't have any accomplishments vs the P5 worth pointing to, and getting an NY6 at-large slot is about beating out P5 teams.

Quo, what is your hangup about UCLA? They are currently ranked 45th by Athlon, and Maryland is 61st.

https://athlonsports.com/college-footbal...teams-2017

In the CBS ranking, UCLA is 45th and Maryland is 80th.

https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootbal...gs/cbs/130

Not only that, but UCLA was ranked 25th when Memphis played them, and Rosen was the hottest QB in CFB.
(This post was last modified: 10-27-2017 10:13 AM by TripleA.)
10-27-2017 10:11 AM
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Post: #33
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
Boise State is still in the running for a NY6 bowl. They could win out the rest of the way. UCF, USF, Navy and Memphis still could stumbled to lose 2 games. Toledo is not even ahead of Boise State in the rankings for their lone loss.

UCF
USF
Memphis
Boise State
Navy
San Diego State
Toledo

That is how they shape up. The top AAC schools still have to face each other.
10-27-2017 11:11 AM
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RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-27-2017 10:11 AM)TripleA Wrote:  
(10-27-2017 06:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-26-2017 04:28 PM)YNot Wrote:  The UCF-USF loser (ie, non-champ) has a shot at an NY6 bowl. The Big 12, PAC, and ACC+Notre Dame will beat up on each other down the stretch and a few teams that are in the current top 10-20 rankings will fall - some more than once. It just depends on how much they beat up each other. .....

But, in reality, who am I kidding? The CFP selection committee will surely rank someone else into the NY6 ahead of the UCF/USF loser. Too many justifications available.

Yes, while it's theoretically possible, it won't happen, but actually for a good reason, not anti-G5 bias: The AAC has zero accomplishments versus the P5 this season. Not a single win vs P5 worth mentioning. The best P5 win that either UCF or USF have is UCF's win over Maryland, and Maryland is a 3-4 team, in 6th place in one of the B1G divisions, unlikely to even be bowl-eligible this year.

So the loser of their game won't have any accomplishments vs the P5 worth pointing to, and getting an NY6 at-large slot is about beating out P5 teams.

Quo, what is your hangup about UCLA? They are currently ranked 45th by Athlon, and Maryland is 61st.

https://athlonsports.com/college-footbal...teams-2017

In the CBS ranking, UCLA is 45th and Maryland is 80th.

https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootbal...gs/cbs/130

Not only that, but UCLA was ranked 25th when Memphis played them, and Rosen was the hottest QB in CFB.

You didn't read carefully. Neither UCF or USF played UCLA, which is why i mentioned Maryland not UCLA.

FWIW, UCLA is a better win for Memphis than Maryland is for UCF, but it is still not a very good win. UCLA is 4-3, and would be 3-4 if not for a Patriots type miracle choke by Texas AM.
10-27-2017 12:52 PM
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Post: #35
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-27-2017 12:52 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-27-2017 10:11 AM)TripleA Wrote:  
(10-27-2017 06:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-26-2017 04:28 PM)YNot Wrote:  The UCF-USF loser (ie, non-champ) has a shot at an NY6 bowl. The Big 12, PAC, and ACC+Notre Dame will beat up on each other down the stretch and a few teams that are in the current top 10-20 rankings will fall - some more than once. It just depends on how much they beat up each other. .....

But, in reality, who am I kidding? The CFP selection committee will surely rank someone else into the NY6 ahead of the UCF/USF loser. Too many justifications available.

Yes, while it's theoretically possible, it won't happen, but actually for a good reason, not anti-G5 bias: The AAC has zero accomplishments versus the P5 this season. Not a single win vs P5 worth mentioning. The best P5 win that either UCF or USF have is UCF's win over Maryland, and Maryland is a 3-4 team, in 6th place in one of the B1G divisions, unlikely to even be bowl-eligible this year.

So the loser of their game won't have any accomplishments vs the P5 worth pointing to, and getting an NY6 at-large slot is about beating out P5 teams.

Quo, what is your hangup about UCLA? They are currently ranked 45th by Athlon, and Maryland is 61st.

https://athlonsports.com/college-footbal...teams-2017

In the CBS ranking, UCLA is 45th and Maryland is 80th.

https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootbal...gs/cbs/130

Not only that, but UCLA was ranked 25th when Memphis played them, and Rosen was the hottest QB in CFB.

You didn't read carefully. Neither UCF or USF played UCLA, which is why i mentioned Maryland not UCLA.

FWIW, UCLA is a better win for Memphis than Maryland is for UCF, but it is still not a very good win. UCLA is 4-3, and would be 3-4 if not for a Patriots type miracle choke by Texas AM.

But more often then not, those games between middling to Top 30 P5 schools will be the barometer used for determining the access bowl slots. Would the top P5 schools play the G5s that have an outside shot of cracking the playoff? Houston might have been able to do it last year, but Penn State winning the Big 10 would have knocked them out I believe. It'll be a long time before an OOC game like Houston - Louisville will come around again.
10-27-2017 01:05 PM
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RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
I think it's extremely unlikely for it not to be an AAC team at this point. UCF and USF only have 3-4 games to lose to someone else. And UCF is coming up on the worst part of its schedule.
10-27-2017 01:11 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #37
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-27-2017 01:05 PM)megadrone Wrote:  
(10-27-2017 12:52 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-27-2017 10:11 AM)TripleA Wrote:  
(10-27-2017 06:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-26-2017 04:28 PM)YNot Wrote:  The UCF-USF loser (ie, non-champ) has a shot at an NY6 bowl. The Big 12, PAC, and ACC+Notre Dame will beat up on each other down the stretch and a few teams that are in the current top 10-20 rankings will fall - some more than once. It just depends on how much they beat up each other. .....

But, in reality, who am I kidding? The CFP selection committee will surely rank someone else into the NY6 ahead of the UCF/USF loser. Too many justifications available.

Yes, while it's theoretically possible, it won't happen, but actually for a good reason, not anti-G5 bias: The AAC has zero accomplishments versus the P5 this season. Not a single win vs P5 worth mentioning. The best P5 win that either UCF or USF have is UCF's win over Maryland, and Maryland is a 3-4 team, in 6th place in one of the B1G divisions, unlikely to even be bowl-eligible this year.

So the loser of their game won't have any accomplishments vs the P5 worth pointing to, and getting an NY6 at-large slot is about beating out P5 teams.

Quo, what is your hangup about UCLA? They are currently ranked 45th by Athlon, and Maryland is 61st.

https://athlonsports.com/college-footbal...teams-2017

In the CBS ranking, UCLA is 45th and Maryland is 80th.

https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootbal...gs/cbs/130

Not only that, but UCLA was ranked 25th when Memphis played them, and Rosen was the hottest QB in CFB.

You didn't read carefully. Neither UCF or USF played UCLA, which is why i mentioned Maryland not UCLA.

FWIW, UCLA is a better win for Memphis than Maryland is for UCF, but it is still not a very good win. UCLA is 4-3, and would be 3-4 if not for a Patriots type miracle choke by Texas AM.

But more often then not, those games between middling to Top 30 P5 schools will be the barometer used for determining the access bowl slots.

No question. And it is still possible that the AAC could have a big P5 win, if Notre Dame is high ranked when Navy plays them.
10-27-2017 02:44 PM
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Post: #38
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-27-2017 12:52 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-27-2017 10:11 AM)TripleA Wrote:  
(10-27-2017 06:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-26-2017 04:28 PM)YNot Wrote:  The UCF-USF loser (ie, non-champ) has a shot at an NY6 bowl. The Big 12, PAC, and ACC+Notre Dame will beat up on each other down the stretch and a few teams that are in the current top 10-20 rankings will fall - some more than once. It just depends on how much they beat up each other. .....

But, in reality, who am I kidding? The CFP selection committee will surely rank someone else into the NY6 ahead of the UCF/USF loser. Too many justifications available.

Yes, while it's theoretically possible, it won't happen, but actually for a good reason, not anti-G5 bias: The AAC has zero accomplishments versus the P5 this season. Not a single win vs P5 worth mentioning. The best P5 win that either UCF or USF have is UCF's win over Maryland, and Maryland is a 3-4 team, in 6th place in one of the B1G divisions, unlikely to even be bowl-eligible this year.

So the loser of their game won't have any accomplishments vs the P5 worth pointing to, and getting an NY6 at-large slot is about beating out P5 teams.

Quo, what is your hangup about UCLA? They are currently ranked 45th by Athlon, and Maryland is 61st.

https://athlonsports.com/college-footbal...teams-2017

In the CBS ranking, UCLA is 45th and Maryland is 80th.

https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootbal...gs/cbs/130

Not only that, but UCLA was ranked 25th when Memphis played them, and Rosen was the hottest QB in CFB.

You didn't read carefully. Neither UCF or USF played UCLA, which is why i mentioned Maryland not UCLA.

FWIW, UCLA is a better win for Memphis than Maryland is for UCF, but it is still not a very good win. UCLA is 4-3, and would be 3-4 if not for a Patriots type miracle choke by Texas AM.

I read carefully. In fact, I had to go back and edit it, after it dawned on me that you were only talking UCF/USF.

But I couldn't resist busting your chops a bit for UCLA, since you have been on that jag about SDSU and Stanford until SDSU finally lost 2 in a row, lol.
10-27-2017 05:57 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #39
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-27-2017 11:11 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State is still in the running for a NY6 bowl. They could win out the rest of the way. UCF, USF, Navy and Memphis still could stumbled to lose 2 games. Toledo is not even ahead of Boise State in the rankings for their lone loss.

UCF
USF
Memphis
Boise State
Navy
San Diego State
Toledo

That is how they shape up. The top AAC schools still have to face each other.

And if any G5 school outside of the AAC runs the table, they wont beat a single top 25 team between now and then. On the other hand, whoever wins the AAC will have to beat one or more top 25 teams between today and the end of the season in order to win the AAC championship. Game over.
(This post was last modified: 10-27-2017 06:19 PM by Attackcoog.)
10-27-2017 06:16 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-27-2017 06:16 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(10-27-2017 11:11 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State is still in the running for a NY6 bowl. They could win out the rest of the way. UCF, USF, Navy and Memphis still could stumbled to lose 2 games. Toledo is not even ahead of Boise State in the rankings for their lone loss.

UCF
USF
Memphis
Boise State
Navy
San Diego State
Toledo

That is how they shape up. The top AAC schools still have to face each other.

And if any G5 school outside of the AAC runs the table, they wont beat a single top 25 team between now and then. On the other hand, whoever wins the AAC will have to beat one or more top 25 teams between today and the end of the season in order to win the AAC championship. Game over.


Lets say Boise State did beat Washington State earlier this year? they would have the better win over everybody. Of all the top 25 teams the teams played? Boise State tops everybody else in that department. UCLA and Maryland both sucked.

Other schools also mentioned outside the ones I talked about are Fresno State and Colorado State. So, Fresno State, Colorado State and Boise State still in the hunt to win the conference.
Memphis, UCF, USF and Navy are still in play.It will be a cluster fluck if all the G5 schools have 2 loses while Toledo with one lose, but of all the luck, they will chose Boise State over the other schools because of their better W/L record in the NY6 bowls.
10-27-2017 06:40 PM
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