Not that it really pertains to the MAC, but FBS is a crapshoot in 2017. If UCF loses to USF and USF loses to a 2 loss Memphis or SMU in the title game??? 2 loss NIU, CSU, Boise State, Fresno State, or 1 loss Toledo and Marshall are not dead.

Its a steep hill to climb but chaos can make it possible for a MWC, MAC, or CUSA team to sneak in ranked between 18th and 21st in the CFB playoff poll.

Fresno State has losses to Washington and Bama but would have wins over SDSU and Boise State and whoever wins the other side.
NIU has losses to SDSU and BC but beat Nebraska and possibly Toledo.
Boise State has losses to Wazzu and Virginia but beat SDSU and probably Fresno State x2.
CSU has losses to Colorado and Bama but could beat Boise State and Fresno State.
Toledo's loss is Miami but could beat NIU and Ohio or Akron x2.
Marshall would be product of schedule but could be 12-1.

(10-22-2017 01:25 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  Not that it really pertains to the MAC, but FBS is a crapshoot in 2017. If UCF loses to USF and USF loses to a 2 loss Memphis or SMU in the title game??? 2 loss NIU, CSU, Boise State, Fresno State, or 1 loss Toledo and Marshall are not dead.

Its a steep hill to climb but chaos can make it possible for a MWC, MAC, or CUSA team to sneak in ranked between 18th and 21st in the CFB playoff poll.

Fresno State has losses to Washington and Bama but would have wins over SDSU and Boise State and whoever wins the other side.
NIU has losses to SDSU and BC but beat Nebraska and possibly Toledo.
Boise State has losses to Wazzu and Virginia but beat SDSU and probably Fresno State x2.
CSU has losses to Colorado and Bama but could beat Boise State and Fresno State.
Toledo's loss is Miami but could beat NIU and Ohio or Akron x2.
Marshall would be product of schedule but could be 12-1.

Hard for a G5 team to get the access bowl bid without a signature win. NIU's win over Nebraska is more than offset by losses to SDSU and BC, two games they woulda, coulda, shoulda won and Toledo's schedule looked a lot more impressive before the season began than it does now vis a vis the Nevada and Tulsa collapses. My guess is that the G5 rep at the access bowl this year will come from the AAC or the MW but as you point out there are a lot of teams in play and at this point they are all probably "long shots" although obviously one will prevail.

Its funny how NIU did it with a loss to 4-8 Iowa. If Toledo's loss is to a 10, 11, or 12 win Miami... How is that their fault for the loss. It will be a situation where Toledo could have possibly won all "winnable" games.

(10-22-2017 06:46 AM)UofToledoFans 03127 Wrote:  Its funny how NIU did it with a loss to 4-8 Iowa. If Toledo's loss is to a 10, 11, or 12 win Miami... How is that their fault for the loss. It will be a situation where Toledo could have possibly won all "winnable" games.

Western's sig wins were a one point win over a 7-6 Northwestern and a beatdown of a 3-9 Illinois.

The American Conference champion will play on New Years Day

Toledo with 1 loss to Miami FL has a shot over one loss Marshall and 2 loss MWC teams.

The question is how many losses will the American champ have? If the champ has 3 losses again they won't be getting it.

(10-22-2017 07:46 AM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  

(10-22-2017 06:46 AM)UofToledoFans 03127 Wrote:  Its funny how NIU did it with a loss to 4-8 Iowa. If Toledo's loss is to a 10, 11, or 12 win Miami... How is that their fault for the loss. It will be a situation where Toledo could have possibly won all "winnable" games.

Western's sig wins were a one point win over a 7-6 Northwestern and a beatdown of a 3-9 Illinois.

NIU lost to Iowa by one point in the first game of the season in 2012 and then went on a 10 game winning streak ----an early loss doesn't usually hurt as much as a late season loss and they did beat a pathetic Kansas to even their P5 record at 1-1. No outstanding signature win, but the biggest thing to help NIU in 2012 was that the top of the G5 was probably the weakest since the access bowl arrangement started and NIU was simply the best of a sub-par field.

Unlike 2012, 2015 saw a number of impressive G5 teams particularly in the AAC, but with an outstanding signature win over a ranked Arkansas team and 2-0 against the P5, had Toledo not suffered their annual November collapse and gone 0-2 at home I think that the Rockets would have edged out Houston for the access bowl slot that year. Incidentally this year's November home schedule is exactly the same as in 2015.

In 2016 WMU went 2-0 against the P5, neither an outstanding signature win, but the biggest thing they had going was that they were 11-0 and it is hard to argue that a team with a few "good" losses is better than one who defeated everyone on their schedule because to make those arguments you have to make assumptions about games that were never played.

(10-22-2017 08:16 AM)Tor Johnson Wrote:  The American Conference champion will play on New Years Day

It certainly appears likely at this point; however, there is still almost half a season to yet be played and things can change, so it is still a bit early to be as confident as you seem to be.

Besides, according to their fans I thought the AAC was essentially a P5 conference (in their own minds at least) and not a mere G5 conference anyway, so why should they even be eligible for the G5 access bowl slot?

(10-22-2017 08:16 AM)Tor Johnson Wrote:  The American Conference champion will play on New Years Day

What if USF wins? At the present, USF has a worse Strength of Schedule than the 2014 Marshall team that got snubbed?

Meanwhile, Toledo could be 12-1 with their only loss to the ACC Coastal Division champ. Marshall could be 12-1 with their only loss to the ACC Atlantic Division champ. Both have higher SoS ratings than USF at present.

To be honest, Marshall is still a year away. We are starting 2 seniors and have three freshmen starting on the o-line. Our offense isn't quite consistent enough to warrant playing in the big game this year. But if everyone starts throwing out SoS arguments like it has been exclusively done in the past, 12-1 Toledo could end up with a better argument that USF if they somehow beat UCF.

(10-22-2017 04:18 PM)CoachMaclid Wrote:  

(10-22-2017 08:16 AM)Tor Johnson Wrote:  The American Conference champion will play on New Years Day

What if USF wins? At the present, USF has a worse Strength of Schedule than the 2014 Marshall team that got snubbed?

Meanwhile, Toledo could be 12-1 with their only loss to the ACC Coastal Division champ. Marshall could be 12-1 with their only loss to the ACC Atlantic Division champ. Both have higher SoS ratings than USF at present.

To be honest, Marshall is still a year away. We are starting 2 seniors and have three freshmen starting on the o-line. Our offense isn't quite consistent enough to warrant playing in the big game this year. But if everyone starts throwing out SoS arguments like it has been exclusively done in the past, 12-1 Toledo could end up with a better argument that USF if they somehow beat UCF.

Undefeated USF would have wins over top 25 UCF and top 25 Memphis... Theyd get a huge boost there. Also not losing in the toughest G5 league means something. 13-0 USF is ranked like 10th in the nation.

Imo the only way the AAC won't get the NY6 bid is if the West winner has three or more losses and then pulls an upset against the East. SMU would have a shot at that, Memphis already has the tiebreaker on Navy and Houston.

USF has a very easy schedule until the end of the year when they will have to earn some things. it's certainly theirs to lose.

UCF certainly has the best resume with blowout wins vs. Memphis and Maryland and also a good win on the road against Navy. Them and Memphis have the only feel of teams who can beat a P5er in that game.

Welp. USF lost to Houston. They couldnt afford a loss to the first decent team on their schedule... UCF is in the drivers seat with Memphis in the passengers seat and Toledo and USF in the back. Marshall and CSU also have gone down today...

(10-28-2017 06:37 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  Welp. USF lost to Houston. They couldnt afford a loss to the first decent team on their schedule... UCF is in the drivers seat with Memphis in the passengers seat and Toledo and USF in the back. Marshall and CSU also have gone down today...

It would take an act of God for it not to go to the AAC this year

well, God may exist in the form of a balanced conference. if everyone continues to beat each other up in the AAC you will probably have a 2 loss team winning the league. that said, a 2 loss AAC champ might be better than any other G5 champ. Toledo may end up with the best G5 record but tough to push them for the big bowl with no marquee wins. I think this shows why we need a second good P5 vs G5 bowl game. if a 12-1 toledo or 11-1 UCF is left out of the new year's bowl there should be a matchup with a good P5 team in the post Christmas bowl window when fans can actually plan to make the bowl trip.

(10-28-2017 06:37 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  Welp. USF lost to Houston. They couldnt afford a loss to the first decent team on their schedule... UCF is in the drivers seat with Memphis in the passengers seat and Toledo and USF in the back. Marshall and CSU also have gone down today...

Saw someone proudly flying their UT flag here in Kalamazoo today.

(10-29-2017 03:59 PM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  

(10-28-2017 06:37 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  Welp. USF lost to Houston. They couldnt afford a loss to the first decent team on their schedule... UCF is in the drivers seat with Memphis in the passengers seat and Toledo and USF in the back. Marshall and CSU also have gone down today...

Saw someone proudly flying their UT flag here in Kalamazoo today.

(10-29-2017 03:59 PM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  

(10-28-2017 06:37 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  Welp. USF lost to Houston. They couldnt afford a loss to the first decent team on their schedule... UCF is in the drivers seat with Memphis in the passengers seat and Toledo and USF in the back. Marshall and CSU also have gone down today...

Saw someone proudly flying their UT flag here in Kalamazoo today.

(10-29-2017 03:59 PM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  

(10-28-2017 06:37 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  Welp. USF lost to Houston. They couldnt afford a loss to the first decent team on their schedule... UCF is in the drivers seat with Memphis in the passengers seat and Toledo and USF in the back. Marshall and CSU also have gone down today...

Saw someone proudly flying their UT flag here in Kalamazoo today.

Must have been the mental hospital.