(10-23-2017 08:28 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:19 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:06 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 07:36 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  All things being equal, I'd find it hard to believe that the committee would take:

A Clemson team that lost to a average Syracuse team

Clemson is very much still alive. As with the pollsters, the CFP is likely to give Clemson a lot of benefit of the doubt, given their track record of the last few years.

If Clemson wins out and wins the ACC, they are almost surely in. They basically control their destiny.

not really. If Notre Dame and TCU win out, Clemson is out. If it's Notre Dame and Oklahoma winning out- it's pretty much 50/50 between Oklahoma and Clemson- and if Ohio St wins out- that's a huge favor to Oklahoma. Clemson really could use either NC State or Miami beating Notre Dame.

I am convinced that if Notre Dame and Clemson end up with one loss each, Clemson will finish ranked ahead of Notre Dame in the decisive last CFP rankings. We'll see, maybe ....

Notre Dame would have wins over Stanford, USC, Michigan St, Miami, NC State. And a 1 point loss to Georgia. They would easily be in over Clemson. What exactly does Clemson have that Notre Dame doesn't? ND has Stanford, USC, Mich St wins. Clemson would have Auburn, Va Tech, and then whoever in the ACC title game(note if it's not Miami, then add that win to the ND ledger as well). If Stanford, USC, and Mich St all do well over last 6 weeks of season- it's going to make things very good for Notre Dame.

Bottom line- Clemson in no fashion controls their own destiny right now. Not even remotely close.

That's exactly what I'm thinking.

If ND wins out there's no way the committee can put Clemson in ahead of them. If they do then they should just come out and admit that playing (and winning) a strong schedule is irrelevant. Sorry, bit if those two win out and the committee picks Clemson, they'll have lost whatever credibility they still have left.

(10-23-2017 08:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:28 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:19 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:06 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Clemson is very much still alive. As with the pollsters, the CFP is likely to give Clemson a lot of benefit of the doubt, given their track record of the last few years.

If Clemson wins out and wins the ACC, they are almost surely in. They basically control their destiny.

not really. If Notre Dame and TCU win out, Clemson is out. If it's Notre Dame and Oklahoma winning out- it's pretty much 50/50 between Oklahoma and Clemson- and if Ohio St wins out- that's a huge favor to Oklahoma. Clemson really could use either NC State or Miami beating Notre Dame.

I am convinced that if Notre Dame and Clemson end up with one loss each, Clemson will finish ranked ahead of Notre Dame in the decisive last CFP rankings. We'll see, maybe ....

Notre Dame would have wins over Stanford, USC, Michigan St, Miami, NC State. And a 1 point loss to Georgia. They would easily be in over Clemson. What exactly does Clemson have that Notre Dame doesn't? ND has Stanford, USC, Mich St wins. Clemson would have Auburn, Va Tech, and then whoever in the ACC title game(note if it's not Miami, then add that win to the ND ledger as well). If Stanford, USC, and Mich St all do well over last 6 weeks of season- it's going to make things very good for Notre Dame.

Bottom line- Clemson in no fashion controls their own destiny right now. Not even remotely close.

Clemson also plays NC State.

Bear in mind that right now, even with wins over MSU and USC, Sagarin has Clemson as having played a tougher schedule.

Clemson has one thing Notre Dame doesn't have - recent history. They are the defending champs and before that the national runner-ups. Clemson has beaten Saban, Meyer, and Stoops in playoff games the past two years. They are 3-1 in major bowls over the past two seasons.

It will be, IMO, impossible to leave an ACC champ Clemson out. It just won't happen, like they weren't going to leave Ohio State out last year or in 2014.

PS - FWIW, I am far more an Irish fan than a Clemson fan, but that's how i see it.

I hate Clemson, but you're right. 1 loss ACC Champ gets in over 1 loss Notre Dame. Clemson would also presumably have 2 wins against SEC teams (Auburn and SC) in addition to a conference title game against Miami or VT.

(10-23-2017 08:37 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Last year a Clemson team that lost to an average Pitt team went on to win the ACC (what is it with Clemson and these pesky northeastern Big East expansion schools?), earn a playoff berth, and win a national title so I don't think the Tigers are entirely out.

Notre Dame has a pretty tough schedule ahead--I think somewhere along the road they trip up and this won't even be an issue.

No one is saying that Clemson is out. There will be more attrition. It's more of a "control own destiny" discussion.

FWIW, here are the % chance at the playoffs from 538, should each respective team win out (stopped at 25%):

Alabama- >99%
Georgia- >99%
Penn State- >99%
Wisconsin- >99%
TCU- >99%
Clemson- 98%
Miami- 98%
Ohio State- 96%
OU- 95%
NC State- 92%
Washington- 83%
Oklahoma State- 83%
Wash St- 78%
Va Tech- 77%
LSU- 71%
Auburn- 69%
Stanford- 67%
Iowa State- 55%
Notre Dame- 47%
West Virginia- 41%
Southern Cal- 27%
South Carolina- 26%

Basically their model thinks that Alabama, Georgia, Penn State, Wisconsin and TCU control their own destiny, regardless of what anyone else does. Clemson, Miami, Ohio State, OU, NC State need a little help, but for all intents and purposes would be in. Washington, Oklahoma State, Wash St, Va Tech, LSU, Auburn, and Stanford more often than not make it if they win out. Iowa State, Notre Dame and West Virginia are a coin flip if they win out. The USCs are going to need a lot of help.

I think those percentages seem about right. Where their model differs from the conventional wisdom on this board is with Notre Dame. I tend to agree their model is underestimating ND's chances, should they win out. I think it is more in the 80%-90% range, rather than 50-50. They would need some help but not a ton.

(10-23-2017 08:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:28 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:19 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:06 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Clemson is very much still alive. As with the pollsters, the CFP is likely to give Clemson a lot of benefit of the doubt, given their track record of the last few years.

If Clemson wins out and wins the ACC, they are almost surely in. They basically control their destiny.

not really. If Notre Dame and TCU win out, Clemson is out. If it's Notre Dame and Oklahoma winning out- it's pretty much 50/50 between Oklahoma and Clemson- and if Ohio St wins out- that's a huge favor to Oklahoma. Clemson really could use either NC State or Miami beating Notre Dame.

I am convinced that if Notre Dame and Clemson end up with one loss each, Clemson will finish ranked ahead of Notre Dame in the decisive last CFP rankings. We'll see, maybe ....

Notre Dame would have wins over Stanford, USC, Michigan St, Miami, NC State. And a 1 point loss to Georgia. They would easily be in over Clemson. What exactly does Clemson have that Notre Dame doesn't? ND has Stanford, USC, Mich St wins. Clemson would have Auburn, Va Tech, and then whoever in the ACC title game(note if it's not Miami, then add that win to the ND ledger as well). If Stanford, USC, and Mich St all do well over last 6 weeks of season- it's going to make things very good for Notre Dame.

Bottom line- Clemson in no fashion controls their own destiny right now. Not even remotely close.

Clemson also plays NC State.

Bear in mind that right now, even with wins over MSU and USC, Sagarin has Clemson as having played a tougher schedule.

Clemson has one thing Notre Dame doesn't have - recent history. They are the defending champs and before that the national runner-ups. Clemson has beaten Saban, Meyer, and Stoops in playoff games the past two years. They are 3-1 in major bowls over the past two seasons.

It will be, IMO, impossible to leave an ACC champ Clemson out. It just won't happen, like they weren't going to leave Ohio State out last year or in 2014.

PS - FWIW, I am far more an Irish fan than a Clemson fan, but that's how i see it.

Notre Dame also has NC State- so that cancels out....

SOS- right now yes Clemson is 9 and ND is 25. But ND has left NC State, Wake Forest, Miami, Navy, and Stanford. Average Sagarin rating of those 5 teams- 26.8. Clemson has left Ga Tech, NC State, Florida St, The Citadel, and S Carolina. Avg Sagarin rating of those 5 teams- 48.6. So the SOS gap will close entirely.

The reason Ohio St didn't get left out didn't have a damn thing to do with recent history. in '16 Ohio St had beaten what was it 3 top 10 teams? THAT'S why they were in the playoff.

I am unconcerned about any possible playoff scenarios involving ND.

I am just happy that the Irish have turned things around from last year.

I was at the Southern Cal game and that win alone made this a successful season for me. :)

A number of fellow ND fans I spoke to at tailgates still think that ND may potentially have two or maybe three losses coming up, so any playoff angst involving ND is not something that is on many of their radars.

Lots of people in the stands (including me) were still waiting for the other shoe to drop and for ND to crap the bed even up 28-0. It was only after the Josh Adams 84 yard TD run (why is he not getting much Heisman talk with 967 yards, 9.2 yards per carry and 8 rushing touchdowns in 7 games ?) that we collectively relaxed and thought ND would win on Saturday night.

It may just be the Pavlovian response from the past, but it is ingrained in ND fans right now. You won't find too many who are overly confident in the team or who are plotting out playoff scenarios right now.

We just have our fingers crossed that ND will find a way to get past a tough NC State team next Saturday and are enjoying an unforeseen good season so far.

It's funny Terry- I feel like this is a better team than even the '12 team- which felt in a large part was smoke and mirrors. Some schedule luck and also didn't a few teams have backup QB's?

I just think ND controls their own destiny. If they win out, it's going to be close to impossible to leave you guys out. And on October 23, is there anything else you could ask for?

(10-23-2017 09:21 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:28 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:19 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:06 AM)stever20 Wrote:  not really. If Notre Dame and TCU win out, Clemson is out. If it's Notre Dame and Oklahoma winning out- it's pretty much 50/50 between Oklahoma and Clemson- and if Ohio St wins out- that's a huge favor to Oklahoma. Clemson really could use either NC State or Miami beating Notre Dame.

I am convinced that if Notre Dame and Clemson end up with one loss each, Clemson will finish ranked ahead of Notre Dame in the decisive last CFP rankings. We'll see, maybe ....

Notre Dame would have wins over Stanford, USC, Michigan St, Miami, NC State. And a 1 point loss to Georgia. They would easily be in over Clemson. What exactly does Clemson have that Notre Dame doesn't? ND has Stanford, USC, Mich St wins. Clemson would have Auburn, Va Tech, and then whoever in the ACC title game(note if it's not Miami, then add that win to the ND ledger as well). If Stanford, USC, and Mich St all do well over last 6 weeks of season- it's going to make things very good for Notre Dame.

Bottom line- Clemson in no fashion controls their own destiny right now. Not even remotely close.

Clemson also plays NC State.

Bear in mind that right now, even with wins over MSU and USC, Sagarin has Clemson as having played a tougher schedule.

Clemson has one thing Notre Dame doesn't have - recent history. They are the defending champs and before that the national runner-ups. Clemson has beaten Saban, Meyer, and Stoops in playoff games the past two years. They are 3-1 in major bowls over the past two seasons.

It will be, IMO, impossible to leave an ACC champ Clemson out. It just won't happen, like they weren't going to leave Ohio State out last year or in 2014.

PS - FWIW, I am far more an Irish fan than a Clemson fan, but that's how i see it.

Notre Dame also has NC State- so that cancels out....

SOS- right now yes Clemson is 9 and ND is 25. But ND has left NC State, Wake Forest, Miami, Navy, and Stanford. Average Sagarin rating of those 5 teams- 26.8. Clemson has left Ga Tech, NC State, Florida St, The Citadel, and S Carolina. Avg Sagarin rating of those 5 teams- 48.6. So the SOS gap will close entirely.

The reason Ohio St didn't get left out didn't have a damn thing to do with recent history. in '16 Ohio St had beaten what was it 3 top 10 teams? THAT'S why they were in the playoff.

Clemson will also have the ACC title game to play as well.

IMO, if Notre Dame wins out, they will definitely be behind:

1) Alabama with one or fewer losses
2) Georgia with one or fewer losses
3) Any one-loss or fewer B1G champ
4) A one-loss Clemson ACC champ
5) An unbeaten Big 12 champ

So ND needs some help, they can be frozen out at #6.

Alabama losing more than 1 game seems unlikely, so Alabama is likely in.

The B1G champ is likely to have 1 or fewer losses, so the B1G is likely in.

That leaves two slots left. ND really needs TCU to lose a game, and they need Clemson to lose a game. It would also really help if Auburn upset Georgia before the SEC title game, so that Alabama could tag them with a second loss.

(10-23-2017 10:12 AM)TerryD Wrote:  We just have our fingers crossed that ND will find a way to get past a tough NC State team next Saturday and are enjoying an unforeseen good season so far.

I get that. Notre Dame has several tough games to play, there really isn't a "gimme" on the schedule other than Wake Forest. NC State, as you say, is a BIG challenge looming this weekend, and they have had a bye week to prepare while ND is coming off the emotional high of crushing their top rival. It will take a big effort just to get past NC State. The odds of ND running the table are probably less than 25%.

But, this discussion is more about "what if ND does run the table"? Not whether they will or not.

Clemson just isn't the lock that you make them out to be.

What is Clemson's big win? Auburn? Who could easily be 8-4 with 2 losses already- and then to Georgia and Alabama. Sorry but that's not a lock by any stretch of the imagination. Their loss is much worse than ND's loss- not even remotely close.

Oh, and if Michigan St wins the Big 10 with 1 loss, ND will be ahead of them guaranteed.

(10-23-2017 10:25 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 10:12 AM)TerryD Wrote:  We just have our fingers crossed that ND will find a way to get past a tough NC State team next Saturday and are enjoying an unforeseen good season so far.

I get that. Notre Dame has several tough games to play, there really isn't a "gimme" on the schedule other than Wake Forest. NC State, as you say, is a BIG challenge looming this weekend, and they have had a bye week to prepare while ND is coming off the emotional high of crushing their top rival. It will take a big effort just to get past NC State. The odds of ND running the table are probably less than 25%.

But, this discussion is more about "what if ND does run the table"? Not whether they will or not.

I have never been big on hypothetical discussions about how a season will play out.

As a fan, I just worry and obsess about the next game. :)

(10-23-2017 10:20 AM)stever20 Wrote:  It's funny Terry- I feel like this is a better team than even the '12 team- which felt in a large part was smoke and mirrors. Some schedule luck and also didn't a few teams have backup QB's?

I just think ND controls their own destiny. If they win out, it's going to be close to impossible to leave you guys out. And on October 23, is there anything else you could ask for?

This year's defense is not nearly as good as the 2012 team.

On offense, I certainly agree that it is much better, at least on the ground.

(I think that the 2015 10-3 team with Deshone Kizer and Will Fuller was better than both).

I think that one thing that the percentage chances from 538 shows is that most of the 2 loss teams with a path to their respective CCG are still in the discussion should they win out. For example, Iowa State and WVU have a 50-50 chance at the playoff should they win out. The "control your own destiny" game is fun, but the reality, as we saw a few weeks ago, is that upsets happen with a predictable frequency. Even 2 TD underdogs win a bout 30% of the time. And we really haven't had a crazy CCG weekend, which will happen eventually. With only 3 years experience, it is easy to think that 2 losses and you are out, but those 12 CCG have been pretty upset free (has there even been an upset?). When you go through thousands of simulations, upsets happen and 11-2 conference champs are going to make it more often than we think.

(10-23-2017 09:16 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:37 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Last year a Clemson team that lost to an average Pitt team went on to win the ACC (what is it with Clemson and these pesky northeastern Big East expansion schools?), earn a playoff berth, and win a national title so I don't think the Tigers are entirely out.

Notre Dame has a pretty tough schedule ahead--I think somewhere along the road they trip up and this won't even be an issue.

No one is saying that Clemson is out. There will be more attrition. It's more of a "control own destiny" discussion.

FWIW, here are the % chance at the playoffs from 538, should each respective team win out (stopped at 25%):

Alabama- >99%
Georgia- >99%
Penn State- >99%
Wisconsin- >99%
TCU- >99%
Clemson- 98%
Miami- 98%
Ohio State- 96%
OU- 95%
NC State- 92%
Washington- 83%
Oklahoma State- 83%
Wash St- 78%
Va Tech- 77%
LSU- 71%
Auburn- 69%
Stanford- 67%
Iowa State- 55%
Notre Dame- 47%
West Virginia- 41%
Southern Cal- 27%
South Carolina- 26%

Basically their model thinks that Alabama, Georgia, Penn State, Wisconsin and TCU control their own destiny, regardless of what anyone else does. Clemson, Miami, Ohio State, OU, NC State need a little help, but for all intents and purposes would be in. Washington, Oklahoma State, Wash St, Va Tech, LSU, Auburn, and Stanford more often than not make it if they win out. Iowa State, Notre Dame and West Virginia are a coin flip if they win out. The USCs are going to need a lot of help.

I think those percentages seem about right. Where their model differs from the conventional wisdom on this board is with Notre Dame. I tend to agree their model is underestimating ND's chances, should they win out. I think it is more in the 80%-90% range, rather than 50-50. They would need some help but not a ton.

It'll never happen, but if South Carolina actually did win out we'd have one hell of a resume. Wins against NC State in Charlotte, @Georgia, Clemson, and Alabama in Atlanta; the last 3 of which all being in November/early December.

(10-23-2017 10:49 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I think that one thing that the percentage chances from 538 shows is that most of the 2 loss teams with a path to their respective CCG are still in the discussion should they win out. For example, Iowa State and WVU have a 50-50 chance at the playoff should they win out. The "control your own destiny" game is fun, but the reality, as we saw a few weeks ago, is that upsets happen with a predictable frequency. Even 2 TD underdogs win a bout 30% of the time. And we really haven't had a crazy CCG weekend, which will happen eventually. With only 3 years experience, it is easy to think that 2 losses and you are out, but those 12 CCG have been pretty upset free (has there even been an upset?). When you go through thousands of simulations, upsets happen and 11-2 conference champs are going to make it more often than we think.

thing is- 2 spots are pretty much done now. SEC and Big Ten champs will get in easily- and almost guaranteed to have 0-1 loss. Both should have CCG where both sides have 0-1 loss. ACC could easily have 0 loss Miami or 1 loss Va Tech vs 1 loss Clemson. Big 12 is set up to have top 2 teams- making it as little chaos as possible there. And you have Washington sitting there as well. And ND is a possibility.

11-2 you need a lot to go right.

(10-22-2017 08:48 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  I think the ACC may be in trouble as well. Miami has not had a convincing win recently while playing weaker teams, and Miami still has Virginia Tech and Notre Dame left on their schedule. Maybe Clemson or Miami makes it to 12-1, but another loss by either of those two prior to December will be problematic.

wtf?? Miami has beaten FSU, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse (the team that just beat Clemson)

If you are going to discount an FSU win, well then Alabama hasn't played anyone

(10-23-2017 11:16 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(10-22-2017 08:48 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  I think the ACC may be in trouble as well. Miami has not had a convincing win recently while playing weaker teams, and Miami still has Virginia Tech and Notre Dame left on their schedule. Maybe Clemson or Miami makes it to 12-1, but another loss by either of those two prior to December will be problematic.

wtf?? Miami has beaten FSU, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse (the team that just beat Clemson)

If you are going to discount an FSU win, well then Alabama hasn't played anyone

When Syracuse is a reason you are using in football- you don't have much....

Alabama will get more credit for beating FSU than Miami will. Why? Alabama beat them with their regular QB. Miami won't.

(10-23-2017 10:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 10:49 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I think that one thing that the percentage chances from 538 shows is that most of the 2 loss teams with a path to their respective CCG are still in the discussion should they win out. For example, Iowa State and WVU have a 50-50 chance at the playoff should they win out. The "control your own destiny" game is fun, but the reality, as we saw a few weeks ago, is that upsets happen with a predictable frequency. Even 2 TD underdogs win a bout 30% of the time. And we really haven't had a crazy CCG weekend, which will happen eventually. With only 3 years experience, it is easy to think that 2 losses and you are out, but those 12 CCG have been pretty upset free (has there even been an upset?). When you go through thousands of simulations, upsets happen and 11-2 conference champs are going to make it more often than we think.

thing is- 2 spots are pretty much done now. SEC and Big Ten champs will get in easily- and almost guaranteed to have 0-1 loss. Both should have CCG where both sides have 0-1 loss. ACC could easily have 0 loss Miami or 1 loss Va Tech vs 1 loss Clemson. Big 12 is set up to have top 2 teams- making it as little chaos as possible there. And you have Washington sitting there as well. And ND is a possibility.

11-2 you need a lot to go right.

538 is taking that into account. First, that's still 2 spots that could undergo chaos. Second is that upsets and losses happen even to good teams. We tend to forget that. According to the football study hall and the S/P rankings, here are the chances for each undefeated P5 team to lose not once but twice before the CCG weekend (click on each team to see % chance for projected # of wins in regular season):

Alabama- 13%
Wisconsin- 22%
Georgia- 32%
Penn State- 36%
TCU 37%
Miami 56%

Again, that is the chances for 2 or more losses before the CCG. Even if you just take Alabama and Georgia, it is almost a 40% chance one of those 2 teams (or whoever beats them and makes the CCG instead) will have 2 losses heading into the SEC CCG. It's hard for us to see it because we just see the the more likely outcomes in our head.

At this point, 2 loss teams are still very much in the running if they win out. It could end up another season that goes chalk, but it is still too early to say that.

(10-23-2017 10:44 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 10:20 AM)stever20 Wrote:  It's funny Terry- I feel like this is a better team than even the '12 team- which felt in a large part was smoke and mirrors. Some schedule luck and also didn't a few teams have backup QB's?

I just think ND controls their own destiny. If they win out, it's going to be close to impossible to leave you guys out. And on October 23, is there anything else you could ask for?

This year's defense is not nearly as good as the 2012 team.

On offense, I certainly agree that it is much better, at least on the ground.

(I think that the 2015 10-3 team with Deshone Kizer and Will Fuller was better than both).

I agree. That 2015 team had the talent to make the playoffs, maybe even with the national title.

Snake-bit by bad luck, primarily in the injury department.

(10-23-2017 08:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 07:36 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  All things being equal, I'd find it hard to believe that the committee would take:

A Clemson team that lost to a average Syracuse team

Clemson is very much still alive. As with the pollsters, the CFP is likely to give Clemson a lot of benefit of the doubt, given their track record of the last few years.

If Clemson wins out and wins the ACC, they are almost surely in. They basically control their destiny.

You can go back to the first year of the CFP with OSU and the loss to Va Tech. Clemson lost its starting QB for the 2nd half and the committee takes it into account. If Clemson wins out they will be in the CFP.

(10-23-2017 12:22 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 08:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-23-2017 07:36 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  All things being equal, I'd find it hard to believe that the committee would take:

A Clemson team that lost to a average Syracuse team

Clemson is very much still alive. As with the pollsters, the CFP is likely to give Clemson a lot of benefit of the doubt, given their track record of the last few years.

If Clemson wins out and wins the ACC, they are almost surely in. They basically control their destiny.

You can go back to the first year of the CFP with OSU and the loss to Va Tech. Clemson lost its starting QB for the 2nd half and the committee takes it into account. If Clemson wins out they will be in the CFP.

Not if TCU and Notre Dame win out- and especially if Auburn loses 1 extra game to make them 7-5- Clemson is very much in danger. What quality win would Clemson have then at that point?