(10-24-2017 07:46 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  

(10-24-2017 07:38 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(10-24-2017 07:36 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  No -- the strength of schedule in the AAC East is too weak.

Sagarin ratings --

99. Temple
106. Cincinnati
130. UConn
136. East Carolina

(10-25-2017 07:55 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  We talked about this before with ECU, UCF, or whoever happens to have a good schedule any given year.

What would likely need to happen...

1. Obviously need to go undefeated
2. WVU and VT would need to make or win their CCG's, and 1 would likely need to win theirs and be in the playoff. (this was extra tough this year because they also played against each other AND even 1 loss can keep a team out of the playoff if it's against one of our teams)
3. You'd need a perfect storm of multiple 2-loss champions. Even with ECU's schedule this year, no undefeated team from our conference is passing a 1-loss team from the other 5. I think that the year that one of our teams makes it (IF they ever do), if will be a year with a LOT of parity in the other 5 power conferences.

Even then....who knows.

Look closely at Wisconsin's schedule & if they lost a game this year but won their conference they would not have as good of a resume as UCF running the table (if they beat both WVU & VT). That said, they might would get the nod simply due to bias but not due to merit & it would certainly be an interesting debate.

(10-25-2017 07:55 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  We talked about this before with ECU, UCF, or whoever happens to have a good schedule any given year.

What would likely need to happen...

1. Obviously need to go undefeated
2. WVU and VT would need to make or win their CCG's, and 1 would likely need to win theirs and be in the playoff. (this was extra tough this year because they also played against each other AND even 1 loss can keep a team out of the playoff if it's against one of our teams)
3. You'd need a perfect storm of multiple 2-loss champions. Even with ECU's schedule this year, no undefeated team from our conference is passing a 1-loss team from the other 5. I think that the year that one of our teams makes it (IF they ever do), if will be a year with a LOT of parity in the other 5 power conferences.

Even then....who knows.

The playoff committee would still explain it away as WVU and VT not being the same team when <insert AAC team here> played them versus when they won the B12/ACC.

I'm simultaneously envious and astonished that some of you can see how high the deck is stacked against the AAC and still convince yourself that there is hope that one of our teams would get invited to the "P5s" end of year 3 game invitational.

(10-25-2017 08:32 AM)Indiana Bones Wrote:  

(10-25-2017 07:55 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  We talked about this before with ECU, UCF, or whoever happens to have a good schedule any given year.

What would likely need to happen...

1. Obviously need to go undefeated
2. WVU and VT would need to make or win their CCG's, and 1 would likely need to win theirs and be in the playoff. (this was extra tough this year because they also played against each other AND even 1 loss can keep a team out of the playoff if it's against one of our teams)
3. You'd need a perfect storm of multiple 2-loss champions. Even with ECU's schedule this year, no undefeated team from our conference is passing a 1-loss team from the other 5. I think that the year that one of our teams makes it (IF they ever do), if will be a year with a LOT of parity in the other 5 power conferences.

Even then....who knows.

Look closely at Wisconsin's schedule & if they lost a game this year but won their conference they would not have as good of a resume as UCF running the table (if they beat both WVU & VT). That said, they might would get the nod simply due to bias but not due to merit & it would certainly be an interesting debate.

That is factored into #3. By default, a crappy B10 schedule trumps any combination of conference schedule in our league.

Also, a 1-loss conference champion Wisconsin team implies a CCG win over Ohio State or Penn State. Any 1-loss conference champ from their league is getting in (unless the other 4 have undefeated champs) over one of our teams.

Hell, the committee took a 1-loss Ohio State team that didn't even make their CCG last year.

So even with multiple 2-loss champions, they might just go and pick some other team that looks nice but didn't win their conference anyway.

In 2013 UCF had two victories against teams ranked in the top 10, and a 3 point loss to a 3rd (which was our only loss of the season). We finished ranked 10th.

An AAC school would need to beat four or five ranked P6 schools in the same season to overcome the bias.

(10-25-2017 08:43 AM)FonzKnight Wrote:  In 2013 UCF had two victories against teams ranked in the top 10, and a 3 point loss to a 3rd (which was our only loss of the season). We finished ranked 10th.

An AAC school would need to beat four or five ranked P6 schools in the same season to overcome the bias.

Which is pretty much impossible given schedule constraints.

The more promising scenario would be a little chaos among the other P6 conferences. Technically, a school can win their conference with as little as 5 or 6 wins. I don't expect anything like that, but it's not impossible to end up with 8 or 9 win champions every now and then if the relative performance evens out among the members.

So, time to get it together...
Chapel Hill
Kansas
Baylor
Indiana
Illinois
Oregon State
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Missouri
Arkansas

If you guys could go ahead and get 1 conference win (2 would be better), then we could go ahead and get ourselves into a friggin playoff.

(10-25-2017 08:20 AM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(10-24-2017 07:46 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  

(10-24-2017 07:38 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(10-24-2017 07:36 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  No -- the strength of schedule in the AAC East is too weak.

Sagarin ratings --

99. Temple
106. Cincinnati
130. UConn
136. East Carolina

You know how to use the internet right? Go look it up.

The Sagarin Ratings through 10/21 under the "Combo" section (combines their 2 different forms of methodology) rank UCF's schedule at 62 and ECU's schedule at 11. I don't know if it would be enough to boost UCF into the top 4 but it is significantly higher. It would also include UCF as part of ECU's strength of schedule calculation, so that would skew it a bit.

(10-25-2017 11:01 PM)mikeinoki Wrote:  The Sagarin Ratings through 10/21 under the "Combo" section (combines their 2 different forms of methodology) rank UCF's schedule at 62 and ECU's schedule at 11. I don't know if it would be enough to boost UCF into the top 4 but it is significantly higher. It would also include UCF as part of ECU's strength of schedule calculation, so that would skew it a bit.

So we'd have to play ourselves? Like Superman vs Bizarro?

I still think the only way this happens is if a school has back to back great seasons. If UCF goes undefeated this season as AAC Champ and wins the Access Bowl and Frost stays they come into next year probably ranked in Top 15. If next year they go undefeated knocking off North Carolina and Pittsburgh OOC and hopefully a few ranked AAC teams then next year it would be the scenario where they might make the playoff.

I havent read this thread... but I think if we had played them, in the weeks ECU played them... that neither WVU nor VT would be considered "big wins" and while maybe ranked a little higher, we'd still have that road block of "not enough proof"...

Looking at WVU, they started off ranked #22 to start the season. They come out Week 1 and lose to VT, and drop out of the rankings. The next week, they played ECU. Had we beat them in Week 2 instead, and WVU started off 0-2 losing to then unranked and previous year 6-7 UCF... would they have been viewed as any good? They next games followed were wins over Delaware State and Kansas, a loss to TCU, and then beating #24 Texas Tech and a winless Baylor. Would a 4-3 team that's wins are Delaware State, Kansas, Texas Tech, and Baylor be viewed as a "Top End Program"? I dont think they would be, and I think UCF's win would then be downplayed as beating a mediocre P5 team.

Same goes for VT. They would have started off ranked #21 and opened the season beating #22 WVU and then Delaware... climbing to #16. Week 3 they played ECU. But if they lost to UCF (who probably wouldn't have even been receiving votes at that point being just 2-0), it would have knocked them down significantly in the rankings. I don't think it would have knocked them out completely, but probably down into the #23 range. The next week, they beat a crappy Old Dominion, and then that would be followed by a beat down from Clemson. I think after that loss, they fall out of the rankings completely. And the 2 wins that would follow over a poor Boston College and a terrible UNC team probably don't get them back in the rankings. Their only decent win would be that over a now unranked 4-3 WVU.

So, that's the problem. A P5 team losing to UCF or USF or any other G5 team is never viewed as a "good loss" like losses to other P5 programs. So, any win we ever do have actually hurts the rankings and perceptions of the teams we beat more than it does elevate our status as being viewed as good wins. And this of course makes it harder for us to actually have "good big wins" on our schedule... b/c it changes the perception of the teams we beat. The only way we can do that is by beating a notorious historical power P5 teams (The Ohio States, Michigans, USCs, FSUs, etc of the world), and pretty much be the only loss of of that teams season (maybe one other loss if its to a "good P5 team".). Those types of teams are the only ones that can absorb the perception damage of losing to a G5 team and still viewed as a good team.

...and since those big programs don't want to actually schedule us (Texas has continually postponed the 2nd game of our Home and Home now to 2023... with the first game being in 2007!)... I don't think the system that's in place actually makes it possible for us to get there unless there is an extreme set of circumstances that require a crap ton of schedule luck, since schedules are determined years in advance.

(10-26-2017 06:06 AM)ShoreBuc Wrote:  I still think the only way this happens is if a school has back to back great seasons. If UCF goes undefeated this season as AAC Champ and wins the Access Bowl and Frost stays they come into next year probably ranked in Top 15. If next year they go undefeated knocking off North Carolina and Pittsburgh OOC and hopefully a few ranked AAC teams then next year it would be the scenario where they might make the playoff.

Even then, North Carolina would have to be less horribly embarrassing. They only play one FCS team next year, and that's after UCF, so wouldn't hold out much hope of that. Hell, they could be 0-2 when they head to Orlando.

(10-26-2017 05:17 AM)SublimeKnight Wrote:  

(10-25-2017 11:01 PM)mikeinoki Wrote:  The Sagarin Ratings through 10/21 under the "Combo" section (combines their 2 different forms of methodology) rank UCF's schedule at 62 and ECU's schedule at 11. I don't know if it would be enough to boost UCF into the top 4 but it is significantly higher. It would also include UCF as part of ECU's strength of schedule calculation, so that would skew it a bit.

So we'd have to play ourselves? Like Superman vs Bizarro?

Not only would you have to somehow play yourselves --- you'd have to NOT play East side mate #136 ranked ECU. Flaw stacked on flaw.

(10-24-2017 07:46 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  

(10-24-2017 07:38 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(10-24-2017 07:36 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  No -- the strength of schedule in the AAC East is too weak.

Sagarin ratings --

99. Temple
106. Cincinnati
130. UConn
136. East Carolina

Don't kill his dream...he thinks they are relevant.

(10-25-2017 07:55 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  We talked about this before with ECU, UCF, or whoever happens to have a good schedule any given year.

What would likely need to happen...

1. Obviously need to go undefeated
2. WVU and VT would need to make or win their CCG's, and 1 would likely need to win theirs and be in the playoff. (this was extra tough this year because they also played against each other AND even 1 loss can keep a team out of the playoff if it's against one of our teams)
3. You'd need a perfect storm of multiple 2-loss champions. Even with ECU's schedule this year, no undefeated team from our conference is passing a 1-loss team from the other 5. I think that the year that one of our teams makes it (IF they ever do), if will be a year with a LOT of parity in the other 5 power conferences.

Even then....who knows.

Unfortunately for you guys, I think the statement in bold is probably true in most cases. However, I think there's a way to overcome it. You need to go undefeated or 13-1 the previous year (including win the Access Bowl like Houston did). That's because reputation carries from year to year. It's why certain teams are always ranked in the pre-season, because they are always ranked at the end of the season. An occasional good year won't cut it if playoffs are the goal (IMO).

(10-26-2017 09:49 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(10-25-2017 07:55 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  We talked about this before with ECU, UCF, or whoever happens to have a good schedule any given year.

What would likely need to happen...

1. Obviously need to go undefeated
2. WVU and VT would need to make or win their CCG's, and 1 would likely need to win theirs and be in the playoff. (this was extra tough this year because they also played against each other AND even 1 loss can keep a team out of the playoff if it's against one of our teams)
3. You'd need a perfect storm of multiple 2-loss champions. Even with ECU's schedule this year, no undefeated team from our conference is passing a 1-loss team from the other 5. I think that the year that one of our teams makes it (IF they ever do), if will be a year with a LOT of parity in the other 5 power conferences.

Even then....who knows.

Unfortunately for you guys, I think the statement in bold is probably true in most cases. However, I think there's a way to overcome it. You need to go undefeated or 13-1 the previous year (including win the Access Bowl like Houston did). That's because reputation carries from year to year. It's why certain teams are always ranked in the pre-season, because they are always ranked at the end of the season. An occasional good year won't cut it if playoffs are the goal (IMO).

Valid point. Also, I was even going to clarify before urrrbody jumped on me that I meant that no undefeated team from our conference would outrank a 1-loss "champion" from the other 4. After a quick look, however, there are no 1-loss P6 teams (other than Memphis) behind USF and UCF. So I guess we can pretty much always rely on the 1-game handicap.

Still remains to be seen whether a 2-loss champion would outrank our guys.

(10-26-2017 08:00 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(10-26-2017 06:06 AM)ShoreBuc Wrote:  I still think the only way this happens is if a school has back to back great seasons. If UCF goes undefeated this season as AAC Champ and wins the Access Bowl and Frost stays they come into next year probably ranked in Top 15. If next year they go undefeated knocking off North Carolina and Pittsburgh OOC and hopefully a few ranked AAC teams then next year it would be the scenario where they might make the playoff.

Even then, North Carolina would have to be less horribly embarrassing. They only play one FCS team next year, and that's after UCF, so wouldn't hold out much hope of that. Hell, they could be 0-2 when they head to Orlando.

Just realized ECU-UNC game is in Greenville next year. UCF needs to start praying for ECU not to hang 70 on the holes again, the week before they go to Chapel Hill.