(10-12-2017 12:30 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 12:09 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  One other point, it is possible for 2 so called G5 teams to be placed in NY6 bowls by the committee and this is the year it could happen. The bowls do not choose the teams. If both SDSU and the American champ are ranked in the top12, then they likely will HAVE to be both be placed in NY6 bowls. The at large pool comes from the highest ranked available teams from the CFP rankings, and there are 5 at large spots

That sounds highly unlikely.

Why is it highly unlikely? USF (for example) already sits at #15 in the coaches poll. Let's assume that the CFP matches the coaches (bad assumption, probably, but go along here). USF has to make up THREE SPOTS in the next 7 games to be guaranteed a spot, regardless if they finish higher than SDSU. And that is with playing a potential undefeated UCF, who will also be highly ranked.

If USF and UCF go undefeated, they both WILL be in the top 15 in every poll, including CFP. Being top 15 and beating another top 15 team will basically guarantee you a top 12 ranking in the final ranking. And if for some reason the USF/UCF winner gets to play a ranked Navy or Houston, even more of a boost. By simply winning the next 7 weeks, undefeated AAC teams will simply move up a spot or 2 every week by attrition.

Do I think this scenario is likely, probably not, but everything is aligning for this to be the year it could happen. (5 at large spots, several ranked and undefeated "G5" teams)

Historically, unbeaten teams are rare. But not unknown. Without speculating about which of SDSU, USF and UCF might accomplish this, I have a question. If you are the Fiesta Bowl, and get tabbed to host the G5 autobid team, would you rather SDSU be matched against a second G5 unbeaten, or against a 9-3 Auburn team?

How about if you are ESPN?

(10-12-2017 01:36 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 12:30 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 12:09 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  One other point, it is possible for 2 so called G5 teams to be placed in NY6 bowls by the committee and this is the year it could happen. The bowls do not choose the teams. If both SDSU and the American champ are ranked in the top12, then they likely will HAVE to be both be placed in NY6 bowls. The at large pool comes from the highest ranked available teams from the CFP rankings, and there are 5 at large spots

That sounds highly unlikely.

Why is it highly unlikely? USF (for example) already sits at #15 in the coaches poll. Let's assume that the CFP matches the coaches (bad assumption, probably, but go along here). USF has to make up THREE SPOTS in the next 7 games to be guaranteed a spot, regardless if they finish higher than SDSU. And that is with playing a potential undefeated UCF, who will also be highly ranked.

If USF and UCF go undefeated, they both WILL be in the top 15 in every poll, including CFP. Being top 15 and beating another top 15 team will basically guarantee you a top 12 ranking in the final ranking. And if for some reason the USF/UCF winner gets to play a ranked Navy or Houston, even more of a boost. By simply winning the next 7 weeks, undefeated AAC teams will simply move up a spot or 2 every week by attrition.

Do I think this scenario is likely, probably not, but everything is aligning for this to be the year it could happen. (5 at large spots, several ranked and undefeated "G5" teams)

Looked at the last three seasons initial CFP rankings for the top rated G5 teams:

2014 - East Carolina (6-1) at #23 -- Boise ended up #20 at 11-2, and didn't enter the CFP rankings until the 5th ranking
2015 - Temple (7-1) at #22, Toledo (7-0) at #24, Houston (8-0) at #25 -- Houston ended up #18 at 12-1
2016 - W Michigan (8-0) at #23, Boise (7-1) at #24 -- W Michigan ended up #15 at 13-0


I'm afraid that history is just not on your side.

(10-12-2017 02:01 PM)ken d Wrote:  Historically, unbeaten teams are rare. But not unknown. Without speculating about which of SDSU, USF and UCF might accomplish this, I have a question. If you are the Fiesta Bowl, and get tabbed to host the G5 autobid team, would you rather SDSU be matched against a second G5 unbeaten, or against a 9-3 Auburn team?

How about if you are ESPN?

I think the Fiesta Bowl would end up with the G5 auto bid in SDSU (assuming rankings hold) and then the AAC champ would go at-large to the Peach (or Cotton). So you don't get the G5 vs G5 matchup, which is what the Fiesta had in 2009. You'd get UCF vs Auburn and SDSU vs Wisconsin or something.

(10-12-2017 12:09 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  One other point, it is possible for 2 so called G5 teams to be placed in NY6 bowls by the committee and this is the year it could happen. The bowls do not choose the teams. If both SDSU and the American champ are ranked in the top12, then they likely will HAVE to be both be placed in NY6 bowls. The at large pool comes from the highest ranked available teams from the CFP rankings, and there are 5 at large spots

I do not think that is the way it works. IIRC only one G5 team is allowed. But I could be wrong. I am sure someone better at searches than me will look it up. I bet Stever20 knows

(10-12-2017 02:02 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 01:36 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 12:30 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 12:09 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  One other point, it is possible for 2 so called G5 teams to be placed in NY6 bowls by the committee and this is the year it could happen. The bowls do not choose the teams. If both SDSU and the American champ are ranked in the top12, then they likely will HAVE to be both be placed in NY6 bowls. The at large pool comes from the highest ranked available teams from the CFP rankings, and there are 5 at large spots

That sounds highly unlikely.

Why is it highly unlikely? USF (for example) already sits at #15 in the coaches poll. Let's assume that the CFP matches the coaches (bad assumption, probably, but go along here). USF has to make up THREE SPOTS in the next 7 games to be guaranteed a spot, regardless if they finish higher than SDSU. And that is with playing a potential undefeated UCF, who will also be highly ranked.

If USF and UCF go undefeated, they both WILL be in the top 15 in every poll, including CFP. Being top 15 and beating another top 15 team will basically guarantee you a top 12 ranking in the final ranking. And if for some reason the USF/UCF winner gets to play a ranked Navy or Houston, even more of a boost. By simply winning the next 7 weeks, undefeated AAC teams will simply move up a spot or 2 every week by attrition.

Do I think this scenario is likely, probably not, but everything is aligning for this to be the year it could happen. (5 at large spots, several ranked and undefeated "G5" teams)

Looked at the last three seasons initial CFP rankings for the top rated G5 teams:

2014 - East Carolina (6-1) at #23 -- Boise ended up #20 at 11-2, and didn't enter the CFP rankings until the 5th ranking
2015 - Temple (7-1) at #22, Toledo (7-0) at #24, Houston (8-0) at #25 -- Houston ended up #18 at 12-1
2016 - W Michigan (8-0) at #23, Boise (7-1) at #24 -- W Michigan ended up #15 at 13-0


I'm afraid that history is just not on your side.

but lets look a bit deeper-
2014- ECU was #23 in CFP poll. They were 21/19 in the human polls.
2015- Temple was #22 in CFP poll. They were 23 in the human polls.
2016- WMU was #23 in CFP poll. They were 17/18 in the human polls.

While last year was a big difference between the 2- that's because the MAC wasn't viewed that strong- the other 2 years- there was little difference between polls and CFP.

The AAC is viewed strongly, AND SDSU has 2 P12 wins.

(10-12-2017 02:12 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 02:01 PM)ken d Wrote:  Historically, unbeaten teams are rare. But not unknown. Without speculating about which of SDSU, USF and UCF might accomplish this, I have a question. If you are the Fiesta Bowl, and get tabbed to host the G5 autobid team, would you rather SDSU be matched against a second G5 unbeaten, or against a 9-3 Auburn team?

How about if you are ESPN?

I think the Fiesta Bowl would end up with the G5 auto bid in SDSU (assuming rankings hold) and then the AAC champ would go at-large to the Peach (or Cotton). So you don't get the G5 vs G5 matchup, which is what the Fiesta had in 2009. You'd get UCF vs Auburn and SDSU vs Wisconsin or something.

But that wasn't the question. What I want to know is what the Fiesta Bowl would prefer, not what the committee is likely to do. Would they want a 12-0 UCF or a 9-3 Auburn? And which matchup would get better ratings for ESPN?

(10-12-2017 02:25 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 02:12 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 02:01 PM)ken d Wrote:  Historically, unbeaten teams are rare. But not unknown. Without speculating about which of SDSU, USF and UCF might accomplish this, I have a question. If you are the Fiesta Bowl, and get tabbed to host the G5 autobid team, would you rather SDSU be matched against a second G5 unbeaten, or against a 9-3 Auburn team?

How about if you are ESPN?

I think the Fiesta Bowl would end up with the G5 auto bid in SDSU (assuming rankings hold) and then the AAC champ would go at-large to the Peach (or Cotton). So you don't get the G5 vs G5 matchup, which is what the Fiesta had in 2009. You'd get UCF vs Auburn and SDSU vs Wisconsin or something.

But that wasn't the question. What I want to know is what the Fiesta Bowl would prefer, not what the committee is likely to do. Would they want a 12-0 UCF or a 9-3 Auburn? And which matchup would get better ratings for ESPN?

They would vastly prefer 9-3 Auburn, as would ESPN.

But it's up to the CFP.

(10-12-2017 01:36 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 12:30 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 12:09 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  One other point, it is possible for 2 so called G5 teams to be placed in NY6 bowls by the committee and this is the year it could happen. The bowls do not choose the teams. If both SDSU and the American champ are ranked in the top12, then they likely will HAVE to be both be placed in NY6 bowls. The at large pool comes from the highest ranked available teams from the CFP rankings, and there are 5 at large spots

That sounds highly unlikely.

Why is it highly unlikely? USF (for example) already sits at #15 in the coaches poll. Let's assume that the CFP matches the coaches (bad assumption, probably, but go along here). USF has to make up THREE SPOTS in the next 7 games to be guaranteed a spot, regardless if they finish higher than SDSU. And that is with playing a potential undefeated UCF, who will also be highly ranked.

There will be a poll churn, we and UCF and SDSU will all hit a wall after which we won't rise higher. If a team in front of us loses, we will be leap-frogged by a P5 power behind us who wins.

We just don't have the OOC SOS to make the top 12, not in addition to another G5.

(10-12-2017 02:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 02:02 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 01:36 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 12:30 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 12:09 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  One other point, it is possible for 2 so called G5 teams to be placed in NY6 bowls by the committee and this is the year it could happen. The bowls do not choose the teams. If both SDSU and the American champ are ranked in the top12, then they likely will HAVE to be both be placed in NY6 bowls. The at large pool comes from the highest ranked available teams from the CFP rankings, and there are 5 at large spots

That sounds highly unlikely.

Why is it highly unlikely? USF (for example) already sits at #15 in the coaches poll. Let's assume that the CFP matches the coaches (bad assumption, probably, but go along here). USF has to make up THREE SPOTS in the next 7 games to be guaranteed a spot, regardless if they finish higher than SDSU. And that is with playing a potential undefeated UCF, who will also be highly ranked.

If USF and UCF go undefeated, they both WILL be in the top 15 in every poll, including CFP. Being top 15 and beating another top 15 team will basically guarantee you a top 12 ranking in the final ranking. And if for some reason the USF/UCF winner gets to play a ranked Navy or Houston, even more of a boost. By simply winning the next 7 weeks, undefeated AAC teams will simply move up a spot or 2 every week by attrition.

Do I think this scenario is likely, probably not, but everything is aligning for this to be the year it could happen. (5 at large spots, several ranked and undefeated "G5" teams)

Looked at the last three seasons initial CFP rankings for the top rated G5 teams:

2014 - East Carolina (6-1) at #23 -- Boise ended up #20 at 11-2, and didn't enter the CFP rankings until the 5th ranking
2015 - Temple (7-1) at #22, Toledo (7-0) at #24, Houston (8-0) at #25 -- Houston ended up #18 at 12-1
2016 - W Michigan (8-0) at #23, Boise (7-1) at #24 -- W Michigan ended up #15 at 13-0


I'm afraid that history is just not on your side.

but lets look a bit deeper-
2014- ECU was #23 in CFP poll. They were 21/19 in the human polls.
2015- Temple was #22 in CFP poll. They were 23 in the human polls.
2016- WMU was #23 in CFP poll. They were 17/18 in the human polls.

While last year was a big difference between the 2- that's because the MAC wasn't viewed that strong- the other 2 years- there was little difference between polls and CFP.

The AAC is viewed strongly, AND SDSU has 2 P12 wins.

The previous data would seem to indicate that: the CFP will rank a G5 the same as human polls when the team is in the 20's ranking, but will push down a G5 team if it's higher than 20 in the human polls. I guess we'll see if that happens again.

(10-12-2017 02:43 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 02:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 02:02 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 01:36 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 12:30 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  That sounds highly unlikely.

Why is it highly unlikely? USF (for example) already sits at #15 in the coaches poll. Let's assume that the CFP matches the coaches (bad assumption, probably, but go along here). USF has to make up THREE SPOTS in the next 7 games to be guaranteed a spot, regardless if they finish higher than SDSU. And that is with playing a potential undefeated UCF, who will also be highly ranked.

If USF and UCF go undefeated, they both WILL be in the top 15 in every poll, including CFP. Being top 15 and beating another top 15 team will basically guarantee you a top 12 ranking in the final ranking. And if for some reason the USF/UCF winner gets to play a ranked Navy or Houston, even more of a boost. By simply winning the next 7 weeks, undefeated AAC teams will simply move up a spot or 2 every week by attrition.

Do I think this scenario is likely, probably not, but everything is aligning for this to be the year it could happen. (5 at large spots, several ranked and undefeated "G5" teams)

Looked at the last three seasons initial CFP rankings for the top rated G5 teams:

2014 - East Carolina (6-1) at #23 -- Boise ended up #20 at 11-2, and didn't enter the CFP rankings until the 5th ranking
2015 - Temple (7-1) at #22, Toledo (7-0) at #24, Houston (8-0) at #25 -- Houston ended up #18 at 12-1
2016 - W Michigan (8-0) at #23, Boise (7-1) at #24 -- W Michigan ended up #15 at 13-0


I'm afraid that history is just not on your side.

but lets look a bit deeper-
2014- ECU was #23 in CFP poll. They were 21/19 in the human polls.
2015- Temple was #22 in CFP poll. They were 23 in the human polls.
2016- WMU was #23 in CFP poll. They were 17/18 in the human polls.

While last year was a big difference between the 2- that's because the MAC wasn't viewed that strong- the other 2 years- there was little difference between polls and CFP.

The AAC is viewed strongly, AND SDSU has 2 P12 wins.

I made no claim that this year would be the same as the previous three, only that the previous three are what they are.

The previous data would seem to indicate that: the CFP will rank a G5 the same as human polls when the team is in the 20's ranking, but will push down a G5 team if it's higher than 20 in the human polls. I guess we'll see if that happens again.

WMU though a lot different resume ways from SDSU and UCF/USF. MAC not respected anywhere near as much as MWC/AAC.

But a G5 is a G5 to these guys. Like I said, we'll see.

(10-12-2017 02:25 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 02:12 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 02:01 PM)ken d Wrote:  Historically, unbeaten teams are rare. But not unknown. Without speculating about which of SDSU, USF and UCF might accomplish this, I have a question. If you are the Fiesta Bowl, and get tabbed to host the G5 autobid team, would you rather SDSU be matched against a second G5 unbeaten, or against a 9-3 Auburn team?

How about if you are ESPN?

I think the Fiesta Bowl would end up with the G5 auto bid in SDSU (assuming rankings hold) and then the AAC champ would go at-large to the Peach (or Cotton). So you don't get the G5 vs G5 matchup, which is what the Fiesta had in 2009. You'd get UCF vs Auburn and SDSU vs Wisconsin or something.

But that wasn't the question. What I want to know is what the Fiesta Bowl would prefer, not what the committee is likely to do. Would they want a 12-0 UCF or a 9-3 Auburn? And which matchup would get better ratings for ESPN?

That's a false choice -- but you knew that.

If the Fiesta gets a G5 team, then they will also get a team from the Pac-12 or Big 12 that is much closer to Arizona. So the genuine question would be, would the Fiesta want 9-3 USC or 9-3 Oklahoma, as opposed to a 2nd G5 team.

(10-12-2017 01:01 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 11:56 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Personally, I think it makes more sense to see who the G5 rep is before deciding what bowl they should go to. Geography matters.

Geography matters to the team that has to travel, but what matters to the NY6 bowls is NOT getting stuck with the G5 rep more than once every three years.

And what matters to the bowls matters more to the powers running this show than what the G5 champ fan base would prefer with regards to travel.

No bowl wants a G5 that has to travel 1000 miles either.

(10-12-2017 01:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 01:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  if both SDSU and AAC champ are undefeated, they are both going to be pretty high up there. Right now there are only 24 P5(plus ND) teams that have 0-1 losses. with still half the season to go. If both are in the top 12, they must go to the NY6 bowls.

The thing is, though, the final rankings aren't made by a computer that doesn't know who the teams are. It's made by the CFP committee, who knows exactly who they are, and also who the big bowls want to see in the big games.

To me, it seems very unlikely that if say UCF is the highest-ranked G5 team, and it comes down to say 12-0 SDSU and 10-2 Ohio State for the #12 position, that the committee will vote SDSU over Ohio State. And if SDSU is the auto-team and it's 12-0 UCF vs 10-2 Ohio State, UCF won't get voted in either.

That just isn't going to happen, and that's what it probably will come down to. And if it's not Ohio State, it will be USC or Penn State or Auburn or some other team with a big name, and the same thing will happen.

The committee isnt going to put a G5 in the top ten. They put a 4-loss P-5 in front of an undefeated G5 with 2 P5 wins. The committee is comprised of almost 100% P5 representatives and will it vote in that manner. So yes, a 3-loss V Tech would most definitely be in front of a undefeated G5 and one (or both) of the standard throw down reasons will be used---the "eye test" or "SOS".

(10-12-2017 01:25 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 01:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 01:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  if both SDSU and AAC champ are undefeated, they are both going to be pretty high up there. Right now there are only 24 P5(plus ND) teams that have 0-1 losses. with still half the season to go. If both are in the top 12, they must go to the NY6 bowls.

The thing is, though, the final rankings aren't made by a computer that doesn't know who the teams are. It's made by the CFP committee, who knows exactly who they are, and also who the big bowls want to see in the big games.

To me, it seems very unlikely that if say UCF is the highest-ranked G5 team, and it comes down to say 12-0 SDSU and 10-2 Ohio State for the #12 position, that the committee will vote SDSU over Ohio State.

That just isn't going to happen, and that's what it probably will come down to. And if it's not Ohio State, it will be USC or Penn State or Auburn or some other team with a big name, and the same thing will happen.

but the odds are strong that it won't be an 10-2 team. It would be more like a 9-3 team. I mean last year, there were only 8 0-2 loss p5 teams. Western Michigan was #15 from a mediocre at best MAC. 2 years ago 13 0-2 loss p5 teams. Houston was #18 with 1 loss. 3 years ago- 8 0-2 loss p5 teams. Boise was #20 with 2 losses.

So in the 3 years had 29 0-2 loss p5 teams- or average of 9.67 per year. And there gets to be a pretty big difference between an undefeted team and a 3 loss team.

Doesnt matter. Think of the committee composition. There is a reason the P5 refused to agree to a playoff without a selection committee where they controlled the membership. The reason that will be given by the committee will be "SOS" or "eye test". As long as the P5 controls the committee and the committee uses nebulous subjective methodology---its impossible to argue. Its not even unethical, because the committee is stacked with a membership that honestly believes there is really no way a G5 could conceivable be a top 10 team---let alone a top 4. If you want real system, you need a 10 man committee with each conference having one representative on the committee. Do that, and you have a real playoff system. It aint going to happen.

(10-12-2017 02:25 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 02:12 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  

(10-12-2017 02:01 PM)ken d Wrote:  Historically, unbeaten teams are rare. But not unknown. Without speculating about which of SDSU, USF and UCF might accomplish this, I have a question. If you are the Fiesta Bowl, and get tabbed to host the G5 autobid team, would you rather SDSU be matched against a second G5 unbeaten, or against a 9-3 Auburn team?

How about if you are ESPN?

I think the Fiesta Bowl would end up with the G5 auto bid in SDSU (assuming rankings hold) and then the AAC champ would go at-large to the Peach (or Cotton). So you don't get the G5 vs G5 matchup, which is what the Fiesta had in 2009. You'd get UCF vs Auburn and SDSU vs Wisconsin or something.

But that wasn't the question. What I want to know is what the Fiesta Bowl would prefer, not what the committee is likely to do. Would they want a 12-0 UCF or a 9-3 Auburn? And which matchup would get better ratings for ESPN?

Auburn. This was confimred last year. In fact, an 8-4 Auburn would still finish in front of a 13-0 G5 (and did).

I'm guessing it'll be Fiesta, though it'd be cool to see someone like SDSU play in the Rose Bowl as the Big Ten/Pac-12 substitute like TCU did that one year.

If SDSU is the one put them in the Fiesta. If it is USF/UCF put them in the Peach. You don't want to have a repeat of the UConn-OU game in which they couldn't give tickets away because of distance.

Woohoo! Lets all fight for the last discarded bone from masters table.