(10-06-2017 12:56 PM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote: (10-06-2017 09:28 AM)Enviro5609 Wrote: (10-05-2017 11:50 AM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote: Fri, Oct 6
Memphis @ UConn
Sat, Oct 7
Temple @ East Carolina
Air Force @ Navy
Tulsa @ Tulane One of the last times I can pick Tulsa and we have a real shot.
SMU @ Houston
UCF @ Cincinnati
![[Image: z3J5Evh.png]](https://i.imgur.com/z3J5Evh.png)
Y'all need to stop sleeping on Tulane.
Not sleeping on them. You all should be favored to win. It's just one of the better chances at a win Tulsa has left. If you want more respect though, beat us a little more often. And can we really give that much credit to ESPN's FPI win % stuff when they have Tulane favored by ~37% to beat us but #18 USF favored by only 18%?
Its not one of the better chances. Those would be Temple and UConn.
I don't think you fully understand how these metrics work (and thats ok, I didn't either at first). They are based on a variety of factors, during all phases of play, plus additional metrics like time of possession, turn overs, home or away, turnovers, etc. Tulsa matches up to Tulane much in the same way they match up to Navy or NM. USF runs a different offense and defense, and that game is more likely to be a shoot-out.
Still, with all those metrics accounted for, reading percentages isn't really that intuitive. 37% makes Tulane a 2-1 favorite. 16 % makes USF a ~5-1 favorite. (Techincally a 25-4 favorite, but lets call it 5-1). That is a huge difference. They have been accurate so far this year, by in large, and only get more accurate the longer the season goes on.
EDIT-
As for beating Tulsa more, I would like nothing but. Tulsa fans seem to forget, though, that the Tulane/Tulsa games (with the notable exception of last year) have been consistently super competitive for the better part of a decade running now. Triple OTs, single score games, etc. We've just been on the unlucky side more often than not. But Tulsa hasn't owned Tulane like they used too in the old C-USA days for a while now.
unless skipper is inserted into game