(09-27-2017 07:22 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 07:11 AM)ken d Wrote:  So, again, how deep does this go? At what point is it a bad gamble for the agents and shoe companies?

I'd say it -the Louisville aspect of the scandal - goes down to the high-3* level, and I'm not sure how many more of those there are. If you are a shoe company that sponsors a particular college program and provides it with shoes, you want that program to be successful, so as to raise the visibility of your brand right then, by having that high-profile college team taking the court each night on national TV in your shoes. And that is facilitated by helping that college successfully recruit talented high school players. Below high-3*, guys just aren't likely to make a tangible impact in that regard.

That's a good point. The shoe companies motives aren't exactly the same as the agents' motives. But the laws of supply and demand are the same for both. The best players will still command more money than lesser players, because they will further the motives of both groups, albeit in different ways.

(09-26-2017 09:07 PM)Chappy Wrote:  Of course it happens in football too. Cam Newton's price tag was a big controversy a few years back.

Auburn?? no way

At the very least, what this could do for the NCAA is help them decide what the appropriate pay scale should be for athletes once they decide to let schools pay their athletes directly.

Apparently, it only costs $100K to get the #14 ranked basketball player to change his commitment. That should be affordable enough. I imagine football players would get a lot less, just because no one player can have that big an impact on team performance, and because there are so many more players to feed.

I wonder if the FBI is able to subpoena the income tax reports for players and families who are receiving these payments. They are clearly taxable income, and failure to claim them could put players an their families in personal legal jeopardy.

That could give the FBI a lot more leverage to get players to talk candidly.

(09-26-2017 10:08 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(09-26-2017 09:00 PM)SactoHornetAlum Wrote:  

(09-26-2017 08:54 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(09-26-2017 06:45 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(09-26-2017 06:29 PM)YNot Wrote:  Well, with the money issues, I would not be surprised UC-Merced could stoop so low to save their programs to stay in the NCAA.

As the original post said, how deep this scandal could go.

BTW, I actually lived near Merced for about 4 months with the USAF.

Castle!

Yup...was also at Mather and I taught Sac St.

I grew up in Rancho. And of course Sac State is my alma mater. Small world!

(09-26-2017 01:26 PM)Rube Dali Wrote:  Once, not if, this issue hits college football, the **** doing the mating dance with the oscillator won't be regular manure, but radioactive.

I'm sure there is plenty of payola going to in college football too, but I imagine that this particular scandal is isolated to college basketball. In basketball it is easy to spot who is a potential one and done and there is a natural connection to be made between financial advisors and coaches. With football its three years at least before the kids can go pro and by the time the agents can identify the 1st round picks they are already in school.

(09-26-2017 07:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The FBI is just tugging on the first few inches of a 5 mile long ball of yarn. The question is do they unroll and investigate all 5 miles or grab some headlines with the first few inches? Who they don't investigate will likely show us the motives for the investigative process. If they investigate the whole 5 miles they will have earned my applause. If they stop with just a few this was a hatchet job on behalf of another party or parties.

This in bold is my biggest fear. If they go all the way with this, the question must be asked "How much did the NCAA know and when did they know it?" If, people involved with this start saving themselves to stay out of the slam and show that it went all the way up the food chain to Indianapolis, it could be game over for the whole thing....

(09-27-2017 07:11 AM)ken d Wrote:  Now that David has managed to derail another thread by pretending to be the village idiot, can we back to reality for a minute?

Whenever a governing body bans some activity for which there should logically be a free market, we can be sure a black market will emerge in response. Amateurism in NCAA sports is just such a ban, and this is the natural response.

When I asked how deep this goes, I was implying that the laws of supply and demand will apply to this black market as it does to all black markets. What we are seeing in this case is the workings of what amounts to a futures market. Basketball talent is a commodity that will be traded over the career of each player. Two groups will leech off that talent in a very direct way - shoe companies and agents.

But it stands to reason that both agents and shoe companies will benefit (or win their gamble) to the extent any player they bet on has a successful career. So they aren't likely to be paying a recruit who has little chance of getting drafted. And the less money the player will earn, the smaller the wager the prospective agent should place for the chance to get his cut of those earnings.

There are only 30 first round picks in every draft, and some of these will be foreign players. So, maybe 25 college players will get a guaranteed contract each year, and maybe another 20-25 will go in the second round where they will command a much lower initial contract. So, if you are an agent, or a shoe company, would you bet on more than 40-50 players each recruiting season? And wouldn't you pay more for the guys projected to be lottery picks than second rounders?

So, what are the chances that nobody bet on the 8 players ranked in the top 20 by ESPN and signed by Duke (4 of the top 8) and Kentucky (4 of the top 20) in this year's class?

This year, Miami signed the #13 prospect (from Pennsylvania) in the ESPN 100. There's a good chance somebody bet on him. They also signed #48 (from Maryland). Maybe yes, maybe no. And they signed #94 (from New Jersey). He's a long shot to get paid (at least by this particular black market mechanism).

So, again, how deep does this go? At what point is it a bad gamble for the agents and shoe companies?

There's no bad gamble for the shoe companies. If Louisville basketball succeeds, Adidas succeeds, regardless of how the kid fares as a pro.

(09-27-2017 10:57 AM)lance99 Wrote:  

(09-26-2017 07:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The FBI is just tugging on the first few inches of a 5 mile long ball of yarn. The question is do they unroll and investigate all 5 miles or grab some headlines with the first few inches? Who they don't investigate will likely show us the motives for the investigative process. If they investigate the whole 5 miles they will have earned my applause. If they stop with just a few this was a hatchet job on behalf of another party or parties.

This in bold is my biggest fear. If they go all the way with this, the question must be asked "How much did the NCAA know and when did they know it?" If, people involved with this start saving themselves to stay out of the slam and show that it went all the way up the food chain to Indianapolis, it could be game over for the whole thing....

It wouldn't make any sense for the NCAA to be involved. Aside from the fact that catching a big fish like Pitino is every NCAA investigators fantasy, they gain nothing from this. The American players have to play college basketball for a year whether they like it or not (with 1 or 2 exceptions), so there's no benefit to having all of the 1st round caliber players on a handful of teams. This scandal just makes the NCAA look useless.

(09-27-2017 09:04 AM)ken d Wrote:  I wonder if the FBI is able to subpoena the income tax reports for players and families who are receiving these payments. They are clearly taxable income, and failure to claim them could put players an their families in personal legal jeopardy.

That could give the FBI a lot more leverage to get players to talk candidly.

The IRS does it's own persecution. The IRS will likely be after them anyway so not much leverage there.

(09-27-2017 11:14 AM)UpStreamRedTeam Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 10:57 AM)lance99 Wrote:  

(09-26-2017 07:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The FBI is just tugging on the first few inches of a 5 mile long ball of yarn. The question is do they unroll and investigate all 5 miles or grab some headlines with the first few inches? Who they don't investigate will likely show us the motives for the investigative process. If they investigate the whole 5 miles they will have earned my applause. If they stop with just a few this was a hatchet job on behalf of another party or parties.

This in bold is my biggest fear. If they go all the way with this, the question must be asked "How much did the NCAA know and when did they know it?" If, people involved with this start saving themselves to stay out of the slam and show that it went all the way up the food chain to Indianapolis, it could be game over for the whole thing....

It wouldn't make any sense for the NCAA to be involved. Aside from the fact that catching a big fish like Pitino is every NCAA investigators fantasy, they gain nothing from this. The American players have to play college basketball for a year whether they like it or not (with 1 or 2 exceptions), so there's no benefit to having all of the 1st round caliber players on a handful of teams. This scandal just makes the NCAA look useless.

What I mean is it is found out that they knew about it, and received hush money. That alone would get the FBI to go after this, just for PR reasons.....

(09-26-2017 07:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The FBI is just tugging on the first few inches of a 5 mile long ball of yarn. The question is do they unroll and investigate all 5 miles or grab some headlines with the first few inches? Who they don't investigate will likely show us the motives for the investigative process. If they investigate the whole 5 miles they will have earned my applause. If they stop with just a few this was a hatchet job on behalf of another party or parties.

Not necessarily. The FBI and the federal prosecutors can only investigate and, if they have enough evidence, prosecute, actions that could be violations of federal law.

Much of your 5 mile ball of yarn is stuff that is incredibly sleazy but might not violate federal law.

Louisville got lucky they got the last ticket to the P5. Otherwise, no P5 conference, even the dysfunctional Big XII would touch them. They just proved what was always assumed of them: a toxic, dirty athletic program that does what it takes to win at any cost.

(09-26-2017 07:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The FBI is just tugging on the first few inches of a 5 mile long ball of yarn. The question is do they unroll and investigate all 5 miles or grab some headlines with the first few inches? Who they don't investigate will likely show us the motives for the investigative process. If they investigate the whole 5 miles they will have earned my applause. If they stop with just a few this was a hatchet job on behalf of another party or parties.

You think the FBI cares if it's Louisville or Kentucky? That the FBI is doing a hatchet job on behalf of another school/conference? Uh okay...

(09-27-2017 09:04 AM)ken d Wrote:  I wonder if the FBI is able to subpoena the income tax reports for players and families who are receiving these payments. They are clearly taxable income, and failure to claim them could put players an their families in personal legal jeopardy.

That could give the FBI a lot more leverage to get players to talk candidly.

BINGO!

A whole lot of players/families are either going to jail/face heavy fines for tax evasion, or will sing and name names

(09-27-2017 12:20 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 09:04 AM)ken d Wrote:  I wonder if the FBI is able to subpoena the income tax reports for players and families who are receiving these payments. They are clearly taxable income, and failure to claim them could put players an their families in personal legal jeopardy.

That could give the FBI a lot more leverage to get players to talk candidly.

BINGO!

A whole lot of players/families are either going to jail/face heavy fines for tax evasion, or will sing and name names

Nike has been subpoenaed

Hang on boys and girls...they kitty has just started to play

(09-27-2017 11:22 AM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  Louisville got lucky they got the last ticket to the P5. Otherwise, no P5 conference, even the dysfunctional Big XII would touch them. They just proved what was always assumed of them: a toxic, dirty athletic program that does what it takes to win at any cost.

But all that sleazy activity helped to get them the golden ticket invite. Assuming no death penalty, it was worth it in the end. Nice message to send.

(09-27-2017 11:22 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-26-2017 07:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The FBI is just tugging on the first few inches of a 5 mile long ball of yarn. The question is do they unroll and investigate all 5 miles or grab some headlines with the first few inches? Who they don't investigate will likely show us the motives for the investigative process. If they investigate the whole 5 miles they will have earned my applause. If they stop with just a few this was a hatchet job on behalf of another party or parties.

Not necessarily. The FBI and the federal prosecutors can only investigate and, if they have enough evidence, prosecute, actions that could be violations of federal law.

Much of your 5 mile ball of yarn is stuff that is incredibly sleazy but might not violate federal law.

I disagree here Wedge. That five miles of yarn almost certainly involves illicit payments of one kind or another. So tax questions arise, money laundering arises, and misuse of non profit is there. That's a very large bailiwick for the FBI to peruse. And even the use of prostitutes as the past few years have made us painfully aware, might in many instances be a violation of the Mann Act.

(09-27-2017 01:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 11:22 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-26-2017 07:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The FBI is just tugging on the first few inches of a 5 mile long ball of yarn. The question is do they unroll and investigate all 5 miles or grab some headlines with the first few inches? Who they don't investigate will likely show us the motives for the investigative process. If they investigate the whole 5 miles they will have earned my applause. If they stop with just a few this was a hatchet job on behalf of another party or parties.

Not necessarily. The FBI and the federal prosecutors can only investigate and, if they have enough evidence, prosecute, actions that could be violations of federal law.

Much of your 5 mile ball of yarn is stuff that is incredibly sleazy but might not violate federal law.

I disagree here Wedge. That five miles of yarn almost certainly involves illicit payments of one kind or another. So tax questions arise, money laundering arises, and misuse of non profit is there. That's a very large bailiwick for the FBI to peruse. And even the use of prostitutes as the past few years have made us painfully aware, might in many instances be a violation of the Mann Act.

As you probably know...this will be much larger than the last huge scandal in 1951

https://www.espn.com/classic/s/basketbal...osion.html

(09-27-2017 11:27 AM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(09-26-2017 07:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The FBI is just tugging on the first few inches of a 5 mile long ball of yarn. The question is do they unroll and investigate all 5 miles or grab some headlines with the first few inches? Who they don't investigate will likely show us the motives for the investigative process. If they investigate the whole 5 miles they will have earned my applause. If they stop with just a few this was a hatchet job on behalf of another party or parties.

You think the FBI cares if it's Louisville or Kentucky? That the FBI is doing a hatchet job on behalf of another school/conference? Uh okay...

You are so obtuse sometimes. The FBI had to get a tip to start an investigation. That tip could have come from another shoe company, a school, or a conference. Heck it could have come from a kid or a parent. Immunity is frequently given for a tip. If the scope is limited it "may" indicate a source. It's not the FBI that would have an agenda, it's the one who gave the tip to start the investigation that likely has an agenda.

It is possible too that a tip could have come from another government agency, like the Treasury Department. It is also possible that the FBI was investigating an entirely different matter and stumbled across this one.

We'll see.