(09-25-2017 09:09 AM)Sellular1 Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 09:04 AM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  If UCF runs the table... and that's a BIG if, wouldn't their schedule be favorable even with one less game, with wins over Maryland, Memphis, and USF? Plus a conf championship game vs Memphis/Navy/Houston?

I would think any team that wins the AAC CG, and is undefeated in the regular season, goes to the NY6 game at a minimum.

Yes, and you also have the fact that UCF had the GT game cancelled due to the hurricane. The committee is not going to hold that against UCF at selection time, should it come to that. Very bad optics if they do. So, in that case a UCF would get in over a SDSU, for example. The committee is not going to penalize a team for a natural disaster outside of their control.

(09-25-2017 11:07 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 09:09 AM)Sellular1 Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 09:04 AM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  If UCF runs the table... and that's a BIG if, wouldn't their schedule be favorable even with one less game, with wins over Maryland, Memphis, and USF? Plus a conf championship game vs Memphis/Navy/Houston?

I would think any team that wins the AAC CG, and is undefeated in the regular season, goes to the NY6 game at a minimum.

Yes, and you also have the fact that UCF had the GT game cancelled due to the hurricane. The committee is not going to hold that against UCF at selection time, should it come to that. Very bad optics if they do. So, in that case a UCF would get in over a SDSU, for example. The committee is not going to penalize a team for a natural disaster outside of their control.

The committee also isn't going to give them an automatic W either. All you can judge on is what was played. I wish the committee would give USF a W even though Wisconsin moved our game

(09-24-2017 03:20 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  

(09-24-2017 03:15 PM)correcamino Wrote:  Noone else, huh?

Throw this crap out the window... C'mon man you know any other league doesn't matter only the AAC

UTSA can play. But the reality is that no team outside of the blue blood conferences will get a sniff at a playoff spot.
Even if USF runs the gauntlet the CFP panel will dump on the AAC.
For years the Big Ten has been OSU, one other strong team, an hot garbage. But they will always have inclusion.

We are fighting for scraps even though we in the have-not section always seem to beat the blue blood in the Big Bowls since the CBS days.

(09-25-2017 10:58 AM)Cubanbull Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 10:15 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  http://csnbbs.com/thread-827466-post-146...id14601368

(09-20-2017 11:30 AM)k5james Wrote:  If SDSU wins Saturday they'll be ahead after THIS weekend.

What a dumb***.

LOL Thanks for finding it. I remember someone from that school posting that last week. Guess it didnt worked out as planned.

Looks like I was off by a week or two. Are you really celebrating the fact SDSU didn't pass USF after four weeks?

USF/AAC FAN should be worried. SDSU had a 4 point win on CBSSN vs AFA while USF had a 36 point win vs Temple on ESPN and SDSU still closed the gap on USF. SDSU closed the gap by 30 votes in the AP and just under 100 votes in the Coaches.

If SDSU keeps winning it's not a matter of if they pass USF but when.

(09-26-2017 03:09 PM)k5james Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 10:58 AM)Cubanbull Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 10:15 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  http://csnbbs.com/thread-827466-post-146...id14601368

(09-20-2017 11:30 AM)k5james Wrote:  If SDSU wins Saturday they'll be ahead after THIS weekend.

What a dumb***.

LOL Thanks for finding it. I remember someone from that school posting that last week. Guess it didnt worked out as planned.

Looks like I was off by a week or two. Are you really celebrating the fact SDSU didn't pass USF after four weeks?

USF/AAC FAN should be worried. SDSU had a 4 point win on CBSSN vs AFA while USF had a 36 point win vs Temple on ESPN and SDSU still closed the gap on USF. SDSU closed the gap by 30 votes in the AP and just under 100 votes in the Coaches.

If SDSU keeps winning it's not a matter of if they pass USF but when.

Wow. It is funny, how funny those posters find this. It should be concerning to them how close the gap is, after we had a four point win on the road. Meanwhile USF won by a ton at Home.

SDSU will get in in front of USF if both are undefeated. It is as simple as that. The AAC fans would have a better argument with Memphis or Navy. But using their own logic of "once ahead you stay ahead" they would look hypocritical making that argument so they don't make them.

An undefeated Memphis or Navy vs an undefeated SDSU would be very close. I am not sure about UCF. I have not really looked at their schedule yet.

(09-27-2017 10:27 AM)fanhood Wrote:  

(09-26-2017 03:09 PM)k5james Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 10:58 AM)Cubanbull Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 10:15 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  http://csnbbs.com/thread-827466-post-146...id14601368

(09-20-2017 11:30 AM)k5james Wrote:  If SDSU wins Saturday they'll be ahead after THIS weekend.

What a dumb***.

LOL Thanks for finding it. I remember someone from that school posting that last week. Guess it didnt worked out as planned.

Looks like I was off by a week or two. Are you really celebrating the fact SDSU didn't pass USF after four weeks?

USF/AAC FAN should be worried. SDSU had a 4 point win on CBSSN vs AFA while USF had a 36 point win vs Temple on ESPN and SDSU still closed the gap on USF. SDSU closed the gap by 30 votes in the AP and just under 100 votes in the Coaches.

If SDSU keeps winning it's not a matter of if they pass USF but when.

Wow. It is funny, how funny those posters find this. It should be concerning to them how close the gap is, after we had a four point win on the road. Meanwhile USF won by a ton at Home.

SDSU will get in in front of USF if both are undefeated. It is as simple as that. The AAC fans would have a better argument with Memphis or Navy. But using their own logic of "once ahead you stay ahead" they would look hypocritical making that argument so they don't make them.

An undefeated Memphis or Navy vs an undefeated SDSU would be very close. I am not sure about UCF. I have not really looked at their schedule yet.

Remaining Strength of Schedule (from ESPN FPI):
USF 77
SDSU 112

From Massey, SoS played to date -> SoS full schedule:
USF 90-82
SDSU 33-87

That's not a recipe for overtaking.

You are right, though, recipe for overtaking SDSU looks like Navy's profile - SoS Remaining 64 vs your 112, such that Navy moves from 108 SoS to 68, nearly 20 spots higher

(09-27-2017 10:55 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 10:27 AM)fanhood Wrote:  

(09-26-2017 03:09 PM)k5james Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 10:58 AM)Cubanbull Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 10:15 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  http://csnbbs.com/thread-827466-post-146...id14601368


What a dumb***.

LOL Thanks for finding it. I remember someone from that school posting that last week. Guess it didnt worked out as planned.

Looks like I was off by a week or two. Are you really celebrating the fact SDSU didn't pass USF after four weeks?

USF/AAC FAN should be worried. SDSU had a 4 point win on CBSSN vs AFA while USF had a 36 point win vs Temple on ESPN and SDSU still closed the gap on USF. SDSU closed the gap by 30 votes in the AP and just under 100 votes in the Coaches.

If SDSU keeps winning it's not a matter of if they pass USF but when.

Wow. It is funny, how funny those posters find this. It should be concerning to them how close the gap is, after we had a four point win on the road. Meanwhile USF won by a ton at Home.

SDSU will get in in front of USF if both are undefeated. It is as simple as that. The AAC fans would have a better argument with Memphis or Navy. But using their own logic of "once ahead you stay ahead" they would look hypocritical making that argument so they don't make them.

An undefeated Memphis or Navy vs an undefeated SDSU would be very close. I am not sure about UCF. I have not really looked at their schedule yet.

Remaining Strength of Schedule (from ESPN FPI):
USF 77
SDSU 112

From Massey, SoS played to date -> SoS full schedule:
USF 90-82
SDSU 33-87

That's not a recipe for overtaking.

You are right, though, recipe for overtaking SDSU looks like Navy's profile - SoS Remaining 64 vs your 112, such that Navy moves from 108 SoS to 68, nearly 20 spots higher

We agree on Navy (possibly Memphis as well).

Regarding the USF stuff, nobody outside of this board cares. They just see USF without quality wins, and SDSU with quality wins.

(09-27-2017 10:27 AM)fanhood Wrote:  

(09-26-2017 03:09 PM)k5james Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 10:58 AM)Cubanbull Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 10:15 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  http://csnbbs.com/thread-827466-post-146...id14601368

(09-20-2017 11:30 AM)k5james Wrote:  If SDSU wins Saturday they'll be ahead after THIS weekend.

What a dumb***.

LOL Thanks for finding it. I remember someone from that school posting that last week. Guess it didnt worked out as planned.

Looks like I was off by a week or two. Are you really celebrating the fact SDSU didn't pass USF after four weeks?

USF/AAC FAN should be worried. SDSU had a 4 point win on CBSSN vs AFA while USF had a 36 point win vs Temple on ESPN and SDSU still closed the gap on USF. SDSU closed the gap by 30 votes in the AP and just under 100 votes in the Coaches.

If SDSU keeps winning it's not a matter of if they pass USF but when.

Wow. It is funny, how funny those posters find this. It should be concerning to them how close the gap is, after we had a four point win on the road. Meanwhile USF won by a ton at Home.

SDSU will get in in front of USF if both are undefeated. It is as simple as that. The AAC fans would have a better argument with Memphis or Navy. But using their own logic of "once ahead you stay ahead" they would look hypocritical making that argument so they don't make them.

An undefeated Memphis or Navy vs an undefeated SDSU would be very close. I am not sure about UCF. I have not really looked at their schedule yet.

Disagree because your schedule gets drastically worse in a major way. If anything, you should be ahead of USF now in the polls, then USF would potentially overtake SDSU as USF plays Houston, UCF, and potentially Memphis.

Your schedule is so bad from here on out it makes USF's look like a murderers row. Not conducive to overtaking people.

Congrats on the 2 Pac12 wins. I do admit it will be close if both win out, and I still contend if both go undefeated, both may be selected for at large bids, due to the 5 available at large spots (both schools would need to be in top 12 by end of year).

And by the way, we do not know yet if Illinois is a quality win. Let's wait until we see how they do in the Big 10 before declaring it a quality win or not.

(09-27-2017 01:52 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 10:27 AM)fanhood Wrote:  

(09-26-2017 03:09 PM)k5james Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 10:58 AM)Cubanbull Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 10:15 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  http://csnbbs.com/thread-827466-post-146...id14601368


What a dumb***.

LOL Thanks for finding it. I remember someone from that school posting that last week. Guess it didnt worked out as planned.

Looks like I was off by a week or two. Are you really celebrating the fact SDSU didn't pass USF after four weeks?

USF/AAC FAN should be worried. SDSU had a 4 point win on CBSSN vs AFA while USF had a 36 point win vs Temple on ESPN and SDSU still closed the gap on USF. SDSU closed the gap by 30 votes in the AP and just under 100 votes in the Coaches.

If SDSU keeps winning it's not a matter of if they pass USF but when.

Wow. It is funny, how funny those posters find this. It should be concerning to them how close the gap is, after we had a four point win on the road. Meanwhile USF won by a ton at Home.

SDSU will get in in front of USF if both are undefeated. It is as simple as that. The AAC fans would have a better argument with Memphis or Navy. But using their own logic of "once ahead you stay ahead" they would look hypocritical making that argument so they don't make them.

An undefeated Memphis or Navy vs an undefeated SDSU would be very close. I am not sure about UCF. I have not really looked at their schedule yet.

Disagree because your schedule gets drastically worse in a major way. If anything, you should be ahead of USF now in the polls, then USF would potentially overtake SDSU as USF plays Houston, UCF, and potentially Memphis.

Your schedule is so bad from here on out it makes USF's look like a murderers row. Not conducive to overtaking people.

Congrats on the 2 Pac12 wins. I do admit it will be close if both win out, and I still contend if both go undefeated, both may be selected for at large bids, due to the 5 available at large spots (both schools would need to be in top 12 by end of year).

Everything you say here is a reasonable opinion that is defensible, except the bolded portion.

(09-26-2017 03:09 PM)k5james Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 10:58 AM)Cubanbull Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 10:15 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  http://csnbbs.com/thread-827466-post-146...id14601368

(09-20-2017 11:30 AM)k5james Wrote:  If SDSU wins Saturday they'll be ahead after THIS weekend.

What a dumb***.

LOL Thanks for finding it. I remember someone from that school posting that last week. Guess it didnt worked out as planned.

Looks like I was off by a week or two. Are you really celebrating the fact SDSU didn't pass USF after four weeks?

USF/AAC FAN should be worried. SDSU had a 4 point win on CBSSN vs AFA while USF had a 36 point win vs Temple on ESPN and SDSU still closed the gap on USF. SDSU closed the gap by 30 votes in the AP and just under 100 votes in the Coaches.

If SDSU keeps winning it's not a matter of if they pass USF but when.

Oh king cherry picker let us all bow before your mastery of the top 25 poll.

Lol even in a hospital and on drugs i can see your bias plainly showing.

How many top 15 teams lost last week?

How many 18-25 lost?

You're picking up votes on the backside of the polls, you're not catching usf, you're jumping over others who have lost along the way. You have no chance, none, not even a chaos theory opportunity to move yourself up. You will face zero ranked opponents the rest of the season. Teams jump teams they beat or when they have a big victory against a higher ranked team then the one they are jumping (see Oklahoma after winning against Ohio st.)


In the mean time enjoy the view from behind usf who will remain in front of you till they lose or you beat someone. Even better usf has the possibility of playing two or three ranked opponents this year which would only add to their lead. You play a coalition of the sisters of the poor, schools for the blind, and southern idaho tech school of teaching. Not exactly resume builders.

IF, and it's a big IF, USF runs the table they will be on a 17 game winning streak and abosolutely no way will SDSU pass them.

(09-27-2017 05:17 PM)TU4ever Wrote:  

(09-26-2017 03:09 PM)k5james Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 10:58 AM)Cubanbull Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 10:15 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  http://csnbbs.com/thread-827466-post-146...id14601368

(09-20-2017 11:30 AM)k5james Wrote:  If SDSU wins Saturday they'll be ahead after THIS weekend.

What a dumb***.

LOL Thanks for finding it. I remember someone from that school posting that last week. Guess it didnt worked out as planned.

Looks like I was off by a week or two. Are you really celebrating the fact SDSU didn't pass USF after four weeks?

USF/AAC FAN should be worried. SDSU had a 4 point win on CBSSN vs AFA while USF had a 36 point win vs Temple on ESPN and SDSU still closed the gap on USF. SDSU closed the gap by 30 votes in the AP and just under 100 votes in the Coaches.

If SDSU keeps winning it's not a matter of if they pass USF but when.

Oh king cherry picker let us all bow before your mastery of the top 25 poll.

Lol even in a hospital and on drugs i can see your bias plainly showing.

How many top 15 teams lost last week?

How many 18-25 lost?

You're picking up votes on the backside of the polls, you're not catching usf, you're jumping over others who have lost along the way. You have no chance, none, not even a chaos theory opportunity to move yourself up. You will face zero ranked opponents the rest of the season. Teams jump teams they beat or when they have a big victory against a higher ranked team then the one they are jumping (see Oklahoma after winning against Ohio st.)


In the mean time enjoy the view from behind usf who will remain in front of you till they lose or you beat someone. Even better usf has the possibility of playing two or three ranked opponents this year which would only add to their lead. You play a coalition of the sisters of the poor, schools for the blind, and southern idaho tech school of teaching. Not exactly resume builders.

Look, you seem like a nice guy. Your program is cute. I admire it. They punch above their weight, play a tough schedule, they try really hard. Every few years they will have a big season, then will go back to being bad, and start over. It is a constant build, rebuild cycle. They are trying real hard to play a tough OOC schedule which is admirable. But, when you cannot win big games, and lose to teams with 3rd string QBs, it is challenging to continue the season. With that being said, if you get in a shootout this weekend, you could win, and could be very competitive in the AAC. You have a lot to look forward to.

(09-27-2017 06:07 PM)Sellular1 Wrote:  IF, and it's a big IF, USF runs the table they will be on a 17 game winning streak and abosolutely no way will SDSU pass them.

Agree to disagree.

For the record, I don't think SDSU or USF will go undefeated either. It is too hard to do.

(09-27-2017 08:22 PM)fanhood Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 06:07 PM)Sellular1 Wrote:  IF, and it's a big IF, USF runs the table they will be on a 17 game winning streak and abosolutely no way will SDSU pass them.

Agree to disagree.

For the record, I don't think SDSU or USF will go undefeated either. It is too hard to do.

UCF did it....no wait...other way around....never mind....

(09-27-2017 08:56 PM)8BitPirate Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 08:22 PM)fanhood Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 06:07 PM)Sellular1 Wrote:  IF, and it's a big IF, USF runs the table they will be on a 17 game winning streak and abosolutely no way will SDSU pass them.

Agree to disagree.

For the record, I don't think SDSU or USF will go undefeated either. It is too hard to do.

UCF did it....no wait...other way around....never mind....

No one is better at sucking than we are. No one in the aac is better at being good either.

(09-27-2017 08:56 PM)8BitPirate Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 08:22 PM)fanhood Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 06:07 PM)Sellular1 Wrote:  IF, and it's a big IF, USF runs the table they will be on a 17 game winning streak and abosolutely no way will SDSU pass them.

Agree to disagree.

For the record, I don't think SDSU or USF will go undefeated either. It is too hard to do.

UCF did it....no wait...other way around....never mind....

It takes talent to go winless and stay perfect.

(09-27-2017 07:52 PM)fanhood Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 05:17 PM)TU4ever Wrote:  

(09-26-2017 03:09 PM)k5james Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 10:58 AM)Cubanbull Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 10:15 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  http://csnbbs.com/thread-827466-post-146...id14601368


What a dumb***.

LOL Thanks for finding it. I remember someone from that school posting that last week. Guess it didnt worked out as planned.

Looks like I was off by a week or two. Are you really celebrating the fact SDSU didn't pass USF after four weeks?

USF/AAC FAN should be worried. SDSU had a 4 point win on CBSSN vs AFA while USF had a 36 point win vs Temple on ESPN and SDSU still closed the gap on USF. SDSU closed the gap by 30 votes in the AP and just under 100 votes in the Coaches.

If SDSU keeps winning it's not a matter of if they pass USF but when.

Oh king cherry picker let us all bow before your mastery of the top 25 poll.

Lol even in a hospital and on drugs i can see your bias plainly showing.

How many top 15 teams lost last week?

How many 18-25 lost?

You're picking up votes on the backside of the polls, you're not catching usf, you're jumping over others who have lost along the way. You have no chance, none, not even a chaos theory opportunity to move yourself up. You will face zero ranked opponents the rest of the season. Teams jump teams they beat or when they have a big victory against a higher ranked team then the one they are jumping (see Oklahoma after winning against Ohio st.)


In the mean time enjoy the view from behind usf who will remain in front of you till they lose or you beat someone. Even better usf has the possibility of playing two or three ranked opponents this year which would only add to their lead. You play a coalition of the sisters of the poor, schools for the blind, and southern idaho tech school of teaching. Not exactly resume builders.

Look, you seem like a nice guy. Your program is cute. I admire it. They punch above their weight, play a tough schedule, they try really hard. Every few years they will have a big season, then will go back to being bad, and start over. It is a constant build, rebuild cycle. They are trying real hard to play a tough OOC schedule which is admirable. But, when you cannot win big games, and lose to teams with 3rd string QBs, it is challenging to continue the season. With that being said, if you get in a shootout this weekend, you could win, and could be very competitive in the AAC. You have a lot to look forward to.

Yes we're the school that is ranked in back to back years for the first time since the 70s. Oh wait two years and marshall faulk doesn't make a program. How many new years bowls have you been to? Isnt this one of your highest ranked teams ever?

And again even on some good pain medicine i noticed you didnt actually answer any of my points. No stats to cherry pick?

Here is one, marshall faulks lost his only bowl game ever, to tulsa.

I dont have anything against you man, just against bs in general. You just happen to be full of it.

(09-27-2017 08:22 PM)fanhood Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 06:07 PM)Sellular1 Wrote:  IF, and it's a big IF, USF runs the table they will be on a 17 game winning streak and abosolutely no way will SDSU pass them.

Agree to disagree.

For the record, I don't think SDSU or USF will go undefeated either. It is too hard to do.

17 game win streak vs beating stanford on a down year? Hmmm, sure you'll be ranked higher

(09-27-2017 12:57 PM)fanhood Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 10:55 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 10:27 AM)fanhood Wrote:  

(09-26-2017 03:09 PM)k5james Wrote:  

(09-25-2017 10:58 AM)Cubanbull Wrote:  LOL Thanks for finding it. I remember someone from that school posting that last week. Guess it didnt worked out as planned.

Looks like I was off by a week or two. Are you really celebrating the fact SDSU didn't pass USF after four weeks?

USF/AAC FAN should be worried. SDSU had a 4 point win on CBSSN vs AFA while USF had a 36 point win vs Temple on ESPN and SDSU still closed the gap on USF. SDSU closed the gap by 30 votes in the AP and just under 100 votes in the Coaches.

If SDSU keeps winning it's not a matter of if they pass USF but when.

Wow. It is funny, how funny those posters find this. It should be concerning to them how close the gap is, after we had a four point win on the road. Meanwhile USF won by a ton at Home.

SDSU will get in in front of USF if both are undefeated. It is as simple as that. The AAC fans would have a better argument with Memphis or Navy. But using their own logic of "once ahead you stay ahead" they would look hypocritical making that argument so they don't make them.

An undefeated Memphis or Navy vs an undefeated SDSU would be very close. I am not sure about UCF. I have not really looked at their schedule yet.

Remaining Strength of Schedule (from ESPN FPI):
USF 77
SDSU 112

From Massey, SoS played to date -> SoS full schedule:
USF 90-82
SDSU 33-87

That's not a recipe for overtaking.

You are right, though, recipe for overtaking SDSU looks like Navy's profile - SoS Remaining 64 vs your 112, such that Navy moves from 108 SoS to 68, nearly 20 spots higher

We agree on Navy (possibly Memphis as well).

Regarding the USF stuff, nobody outside of this board cares. They just see USF without quality wins, and SDSU with quality wins.

Okay, I was trying to keep it tight and focused, but we'll go back to big picture: In ESPN FPI's SoS remaining, every AAC team is ahead of SDSU. Every. One.
According to Massey, full SoS, SDSU is actually ahead of Connecticut. 11 AAC teams, including all the contenders have a stronger schedule than SDSU (stronger than Toledo and UTSA, too).

You are right that the CFP committee appears to look not so much at a single SoS calculation or where that ranks -- they look at quality wins as defining the body of work. As of now, that Stanford victory is a better quality win than anything any AAC contender has in their pocket. But that is far from a done deal....

Massey Composite Rankings as of week 4:
13 Notre Dame
17 USF
19 SDSU
26 Stanford
28 UCF
36 Navy
40 Houston
42 Memphis
50 UCLA
51 SMU
53 Maryland
57 Arizona State
61 Boise State
63 CSU
67 AF
71 N. Illinois
73 Arizona

If Stanford stumbles at all, numerous AAC wins will look just as strong.
Even without Stanford stumbling, as of today, USF over UCF would be a comparable quality win to Stanford. Anyone out of the west beating a 12-0 USF in ccg would get a quality win better than Stanford. Navy running the table would have ND and USF. Memphis running the table would have UCF, Navy, and USF.
Your Arizona State win compares badly to any number of AAC wins, or to the Terps for UCF or to UCLA for Memphis.

You could come up with different ways for there to be ALL 2- and 3-loss teams in the AAC, but there are also many paths to an AAC CCG matchup of 0- or 1-loss teams that will stay ahead of or leap SDSU.

Because of the weak remaining schedule SDSU is far, far, far from being in driver's seat for the NY6 bowl bid, even if Stanford stays strong.

(09-28-2017 07:31 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 12:57 PM)fanhood Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 10:55 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 10:27 AM)fanhood Wrote:  

(09-26-2017 03:09 PM)k5james Wrote:  Looks like I was off by a week or two. Are you really celebrating the fact SDSU didn't pass USF after four weeks?

USF/AAC FAN should be worried. SDSU had a 4 point win on CBSSN vs AFA while USF had a 36 point win vs Temple on ESPN and SDSU still closed the gap on USF. SDSU closed the gap by 30 votes in the AP and just under 100 votes in the Coaches.

If SDSU keeps winning it's not a matter of if they pass USF but when.

Wow. It is funny, how funny those posters find this. It should be concerning to them how close the gap is, after we had a four point win on the road. Meanwhile USF won by a ton at Home.

SDSU will get in in front of USF if both are undefeated. It is as simple as that. The AAC fans would have a better argument with Memphis or Navy. But using their own logic of "once ahead you stay ahead" they would look hypocritical making that argument so they don't make them.

An undefeated Memphis or Navy vs an undefeated SDSU would be very close. I am not sure about UCF. I have not really looked at their schedule yet.

Remaining Strength of Schedule (from ESPN FPI):
USF 77
SDSU 112

From Massey, SoS played to date -> SoS full schedule:
USF 90-82
SDSU 33-87

That's not a recipe for overtaking.

You are right, though, recipe for overtaking SDSU looks like Navy's profile - SoS Remaining 64 vs your 112, such that Navy moves from 108 SoS to 68, nearly 20 spots higher

We agree on Navy (possibly Memphis as well).

Regarding the USF stuff, nobody outside of this board cares. They just see USF without quality wins, and SDSU with quality wins.

Okay, I was trying to keep it tight and focused, but we'll go back to big picture: In ESPN FPI's SoS remaining, every AAC team is ahead of SDSU. Every. One.
According to Massey, full SoS, SDSU is actually ahead of Connecticut. 11 AAC teams, including all the contenders have a stronger schedule than SDSU (stronger than Toledo and UTSA, too).

You are right that the CFP committee appears to look not so much at a single SoS calculation or where that ranks -- they look at quality wins as defining the body of work. As of now, that Stanford victory is a better quality win than anything any AAC contender has in their pocket. But that is far from a done deal....

Massey Composite Rankings as of week 4:
13 Notre Dame
17 USF
19 SDSU
26 Stanford
28 UCF
36 Navy
40 Houston
42 Memphis
50 UCLA
51 SMU
53 Maryland
57 Arizona State
61 Boise State
63 CSU
67 AF
71 N. Illinois
73 Arizona

If Stanford stumbles at all, numerous AAC wins will look just as strong.
Even without Stanford stumbling, as of today, USF over UCF would be a comparable quality win to Stanford. Anyone out of the west beating a 12-0 USF in ccg would get a quality win better than Stanford. Navy running the table would have ND and USF. Memphis running the table would have UCF, Navy, and USF.
Your Arizona State win compares badly to any number of AAC wins, or to the Terps for UCF or to UCLA for Memphis.

You could come up with different ways for there to be ALL 2- and 3-loss teams in the AAC, but there are also many paths to an AAC CCG matchup of 0- or 1-loss teams that will stay ahead of or leap SDSU.

Because of the weak remaining schedule SDSU is far, far, far from being in driver's seat for the NY6 bowl bid, even if Stanford stays strong.

Based on what you posted, Arizona State is four spots behind Maryland and 7 behind UCLA. How does that compare badly? That is a minuscule difference that will change. Maryland doesn't have a QB, so unfortunately, they will keep losing.

Nonetheless, like I said, none of this matters. USF will be perceived to have minimal quality wins. Wins over UCF or Memphis will still be seen as wins over non-power 5 opponents. I don't like it any more than you do. The system is rigged and biased. It just so happens that in the specific instance of comparing SDSU and USF, it works in SDSUs favor this year.

As I said, Navy is a different story. They would hypothetically have a high profile win over a good ND team.