(09-28-2017 07:31 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 12:57 PM)fanhood Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 10:55 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 10:27 AM)fanhood Wrote:  

(09-26-2017 03:09 PM)k5james Wrote:  Looks like I was off by a week or two. Are you really celebrating the fact SDSU didn't pass USF after four weeks?

USF/AAC FAN should be worried. SDSU had a 4 point win on CBSSN vs AFA while USF had a 36 point win vs Temple on ESPN and SDSU still closed the gap on USF. SDSU closed the gap by 30 votes in the AP and just under 100 votes in the Coaches.

If SDSU keeps winning it's not a matter of if they pass USF but when.

Wow. It is funny, how funny those posters find this. It should be concerning to them how close the gap is, after we had a four point win on the road. Meanwhile USF won by a ton at Home.

SDSU will get in in front of USF if both are undefeated. It is as simple as that. The AAC fans would have a better argument with Memphis or Navy. But using their own logic of "once ahead you stay ahead" they would look hypocritical making that argument so they don't make them.

An undefeated Memphis or Navy vs an undefeated SDSU would be very close. I am not sure about UCF. I have not really looked at their schedule yet.

Remaining Strength of Schedule (from ESPN FPI):
USF 77
SDSU 112

From Massey, SoS played to date -> SoS full schedule:
USF 90-82
SDSU 33-87

That's not a recipe for overtaking.

You are right, though, recipe for overtaking SDSU looks like Navy's profile - SoS Remaining 64 vs your 112, such that Navy moves from 108 SoS to 68, nearly 20 spots higher

We agree on Navy (possibly Memphis as well).

Regarding the USF stuff, nobody outside of this board cares. They just see USF without quality wins, and SDSU with quality wins.

Okay, I was trying to keep it tight and focused, but we'll go back to big picture: In ESPN FPI's SoS remaining, every AAC team is ahead of SDSU. Every. One.
According to Massey, full SoS, SDSU is actually ahead of Connecticut. 11 AAC teams, including all the contenders have a stronger schedule than SDSU (stronger than Toledo and UTSA, too).

You are right that the CFP committee appears to look not so much at a single SoS calculation or where that ranks -- they look at quality wins as defining the body of work. As of now, that Stanford victory is a better quality win than anything any AAC contender has in their pocket. But that is far from a done deal....

Massey Composite Rankings as of week 4:
13 Notre Dame
17 USF
19 SDSU
26 Stanford
28 UCF
36 Navy
40 Houston
42 Memphis
50 UCLA
51 SMU
53 Maryland
57 Arizona State
61 Boise State
63 CSU
67 AF
71 N. Illinois
73 Arizona

If Stanford stumbles at all, numerous AAC wins will look just as strong.
Even without Stanford stumbling, as of today, USF over UCF would be a comparable quality win to Stanford. Anyone out of the west beating a 12-0 USF in ccg would get a quality win better than Stanford. Navy running the table would have ND and USF. Memphis running the table would have UCF, Navy, and USF.
Your Arizona State win compares badly to any number of AAC wins, or to the Terps for UCF or to UCLA for Memphis.

You could come up with different ways for there to be ALL 2- and 3-loss teams in the AAC, but there are also many paths to an AAC CCG matchup of 0- or 1-loss teams that will stay ahead of or leap SDSU.

Because of the weak remaining schedule SDSU is far, far, far from being in driver's seat for the NY6 bowl bid, even if Stanford stays strong.

Good analysis, in that your conclusions make logical sense. But logic doesn't always prevail here. I think the reality is that if Stanford doesn't stumble, SDSU's win over them will be much higher-profile than any wins over AAC teams. As soon as AAC schools lose, they basically drop out of the rankings. In contrast, a two-loss Stanford team could still climb into the top 10. It's just the way it is.

It just isn't likely that a USF win over even an unbeaten UCF in November is going to have the same cachet as a win over a two-loss Stanford team.

For G5, the coin of the realm when it comes to CFP positioning is OOC wins, specifically OOC wins over ranked P5 teams. Navy could possibly have that, if you beat Notre Dame and Notre Dame otherwise wins a lot, but USF and UCF simply will not. The CFP just isn't likely to be as impressed with AAC teams beating each other, no matter how unfair that is.

That doesn't mean SDSU will get the NY6 bid if they win out and Stanford runs the table. An unbeaten AAC team, especially USF (since we are already ranked), will be a very formidable candidate as well and it will be a close call. But it will be a very close call, neither side can rest easy about it.

(09-28-2017 08:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-28-2017 07:31 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 12:57 PM)fanhood Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 10:55 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 10:27 AM)fanhood Wrote:  Wow. It is funny, how funny those posters find this. It should be concerning to them how close the gap is, after we had a four point win on the road. Meanwhile USF won by a ton at Home.

SDSU will get in in front of USF if both are undefeated. It is as simple as that. The AAC fans would have a better argument with Memphis or Navy. But using their own logic of "once ahead you stay ahead" they would look hypocritical making that argument so they don't make them.

An undefeated Memphis or Navy vs an undefeated SDSU would be very close. I am not sure about UCF. I have not really looked at their schedule yet.

Remaining Strength of Schedule (from ESPN FPI):
USF 77
SDSU 112

From Massey, SoS played to date -> SoS full schedule:
USF 90-82
SDSU 33-87

That's not a recipe for overtaking.

You are right, though, recipe for overtaking SDSU looks like Navy's profile - SoS Remaining 64 vs your 112, such that Navy moves from 108 SoS to 68, nearly 20 spots higher

We agree on Navy (possibly Memphis as well).

Regarding the USF stuff, nobody outside of this board cares. They just see USF without quality wins, and SDSU with quality wins.

Okay, I was trying to keep it tight and focused, but we'll go back to big picture: In ESPN FPI's SoS remaining, every AAC team is ahead of SDSU. Every. One.
According to Massey, full SoS, SDSU is actually ahead of Connecticut. 11 AAC teams, including all the contenders have a stronger schedule than SDSU (stronger than Toledo and UTSA, too).

You are right that the CFP committee appears to look not so much at a single SoS calculation or where that ranks -- they look at quality wins as defining the body of work. As of now, that Stanford victory is a better quality win than anything any AAC contender has in their pocket. But that is far from a done deal....

Massey Composite Rankings as of week 4:
13 Notre Dame
17 USF
19 SDSU
26 Stanford
28 UCF
36 Navy
40 Houston
42 Memphis
50 UCLA
51 SMU
53 Maryland
57 Arizona State
61 Boise State
63 CSU
67 AF
71 N. Illinois
73 Arizona

If Stanford stumbles at all, numerous AAC wins will look just as strong.
Even without Stanford stumbling, as of today, USF over UCF would be a comparable quality win to Stanford. Anyone out of the west beating a 12-0 USF in ccg would get a quality win better than Stanford. Navy running the table would have ND and USF. Memphis running the table would have UCF, Navy, and USF.
Your Arizona State win compares badly to any number of AAC wins, or to the Terps for UCF or to UCLA for Memphis.

You could come up with different ways for there to be ALL 2- and 3-loss teams in the AAC, but there are also many paths to an AAC CCG matchup of 0- or 1-loss teams that will stay ahead of or leap SDSU.

Because of the weak remaining schedule SDSU is far, far, far from being in driver's seat for the NY6 bowl bid, even if Stanford stays strong.

Good analysis, in that your conclusions make logical sense. But logic doesn't always prevail here. I think the reality is that if Stanford doesn't stumble, SDSU's win over them will be much higher-profile than any wins over AAC teams. As soon as AAC schools lose, they basically drop out of the rankings. In contrast, a two-loss Stanford team could still climb into the top 10. It's just the way it is.

It just isn't likely that a USF win over even an unbeaten UCF in November is going to have the same cachet as a win over a two-loss Stanford team.

For G5, the coin of the realm when it comes to CFP positioning is OOC wins, specifically OOC wins over ranked P5 teams. Navy could possibly have that, if you beat Notre Dame and Notre Dame otherwise wins a lot, but USF and UCF simply will not. The CFP just isn't likely to be as impressed with AAC teams beating each other, no matter how unfair that is.

That doesn't mean SDSU will get the NY6 bid if they win out and Stanford runs the table. An unbeaten AAC team, especially USF (since we are already ranked), will be a very formidable candidate as well and it will be a close call. But it will be a very close call, neither side can rest easy about it.

I agree if both run the table it is going to be an extremely close call. With that said the American has 6 teams in the top 51 where as the MWC has 1 and SDSU can't play themselves. I just think the overall body of work would benefit a team in the American as the strength of schedule is simply much better and the committee has focused on that. I do think it will be a very close call though. Still lots of games to be played though so we will see what it looks like in a few weeks.

(09-28-2017 08:21 AM)PT_american Wrote:  

(09-28-2017 08:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-28-2017 07:31 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 12:57 PM)fanhood Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 10:55 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Remaining Strength of Schedule (from ESPN FPI):
USF 77
SDSU 112

From Massey, SoS played to date -> SoS full schedule:
USF 90-82
SDSU 33-87

That's not a recipe for overtaking.

You are right, though, recipe for overtaking SDSU looks like Navy's profile - SoS Remaining 64 vs your 112, such that Navy moves from 108 SoS to 68, nearly 20 spots higher

We agree on Navy (possibly Memphis as well).

Regarding the USF stuff, nobody outside of this board cares. They just see USF without quality wins, and SDSU with quality wins.

Okay, I was trying to keep it tight and focused, but we'll go back to big picture: In ESPN FPI's SoS remaining, every AAC team is ahead of SDSU. Every. One.
According to Massey, full SoS, SDSU is actually ahead of Connecticut. 11 AAC teams, including all the contenders have a stronger schedule than SDSU (stronger than Toledo and UTSA, too).

You are right that the CFP committee appears to look not so much at a single SoS calculation or where that ranks -- they look at quality wins as defining the body of work. As of now, that Stanford victory is a better quality win than anything any AAC contender has in their pocket. But that is far from a done deal....

Massey Composite Rankings as of week 4:
13 Notre Dame
17 USF
19 SDSU
26 Stanford
28 UCF
36 Navy
40 Houston
42 Memphis
50 UCLA
51 SMU
53 Maryland
57 Arizona State
61 Boise State
63 CSU
67 AF
71 N. Illinois
73 Arizona

If Stanford stumbles at all, numerous AAC wins will look just as strong.
Even without Stanford stumbling, as of today, USF over UCF would be a comparable quality win to Stanford. Anyone out of the west beating a 12-0 USF in ccg would get a quality win better than Stanford. Navy running the table would have ND and USF. Memphis running the table would have UCF, Navy, and USF.
Your Arizona State win compares badly to any number of AAC wins, or to the Terps for UCF or to UCLA for Memphis.

You could come up with different ways for there to be ALL 2- and 3-loss teams in the AAC, but there are also many paths to an AAC CCG matchup of 0- or 1-loss teams that will stay ahead of or leap SDSU.

Because of the weak remaining schedule SDSU is far, far, far from being in driver's seat for the NY6 bowl bid, even if Stanford stays strong.

Good analysis, in that your conclusions make logical sense. But logic doesn't always prevail here. I think the reality is that if Stanford doesn't stumble, SDSU's win over them will be much higher-profile than any wins over AAC teams. As soon as AAC schools lose, they basically drop out of the rankings. In contrast, a two-loss Stanford team could still climb into the top 10. It's just the way it is.

It just isn't likely that a USF win over even an unbeaten UCF in November is going to have the same cachet as a win over a two-loss Stanford team.

For G5, the coin of the realm when it comes to CFP positioning is OOC wins, specifically OOC wins over ranked P5 teams. Navy could possibly have that, if you beat Notre Dame and Notre Dame otherwise wins a lot, but USF and UCF simply will not. The CFP just isn't likely to be as impressed with AAC teams beating each other, no matter how unfair that is.

That doesn't mean SDSU will get the NY6 bid if they win out and Stanford runs the table. An unbeaten AAC team, especially USF (since we are already ranked), will be a very formidable candidate as well and it will be a close call. But it will be a very close call, neither side can rest easy about it.

I agree if both run the table it is going to be an extremely close call. With that said the American has 6 teams in the top 51 where as the MWC has 1 and SDSU can't play themselves. I just think the overall body of work would benefit a team in the American as the strength of schedule is simply much better and the committee has focused on that. I do think it will be a very close call though. Still lots of games to be played though so we will see what it looks like in a few weeks.

Again, it isn't OOC only for American teams.

Last year, the committee said out loud and in public that 2-loss Navy was a threat to WMU because of three quality wins, which were all in conference. Disclaimer 1 - there were second-order OOC wins in there - Houston was a quality win for Navy in large part because of Houston's big OOC wins.
Disclaimer 2 - that was in comparison to WMU's win over mid-40s Northwestern...all three of those AAC quality wins were slightly to solidly below where Stanford is now.
It will be interesting to see how the committee handles three B wins vs 1 A- win and nothing else.

Macro-level point remains: any 0- or 1-loss AAC champ, it is NOT a slamdunk for SDSU even with their Stanford win.

(09-28-2017 08:40 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(09-28-2017 08:21 AM)PT_american Wrote:  

(09-28-2017 08:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-28-2017 07:31 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(09-27-2017 12:57 PM)fanhood Wrote:  We agree on Navy (possibly Memphis as well).

Regarding the USF stuff, nobody outside of this board cares. They just see USF without quality wins, and SDSU with quality wins.

Okay, I was trying to keep it tight and focused, but we'll go back to big picture: In ESPN FPI's SoS remaining, every AAC team is ahead of SDSU. Every. One.
According to Massey, full SoS, SDSU is actually ahead of Connecticut. 11 AAC teams, including all the contenders have a stronger schedule than SDSU (stronger than Toledo and UTSA, too).

You are right that the CFP committee appears to look not so much at a single SoS calculation or where that ranks -- they look at quality wins as defining the body of work. As of now, that Stanford victory is a better quality win than anything any AAC contender has in their pocket. But that is far from a done deal....

Massey Composite Rankings as of week 4:
13 Notre Dame
17 USF
19 SDSU
26 Stanford
28 UCF
36 Navy
40 Houston
42 Memphis
50 UCLA
51 SMU
53 Maryland
57 Arizona State
61 Boise State
63 CSU
67 AF
71 N. Illinois
73 Arizona

If Stanford stumbles at all, numerous AAC wins will look just as strong.
Even without Stanford stumbling, as of today, USF over UCF would be a comparable quality win to Stanford. Anyone out of the west beating a 12-0 USF in ccg would get a quality win better than Stanford. Navy running the table would have ND and USF. Memphis running the table would have UCF, Navy, and USF.
Your Arizona State win compares badly to any number of AAC wins, or to the Terps for UCF or to UCLA for Memphis.

You could come up with different ways for there to be ALL 2- and 3-loss teams in the AAC, but there are also many paths to an AAC CCG matchup of 0- or 1-loss teams that will stay ahead of or leap SDSU.

Because of the weak remaining schedule SDSU is far, far, far from being in driver's seat for the NY6 bowl bid, even if Stanford stays strong.

Good analysis, in that your conclusions make logical sense. But logic doesn't always prevail here. I think the reality is that if Stanford doesn't stumble, SDSU's win over them will be much higher-profile than any wins over AAC teams. As soon as AAC schools lose, they basically drop out of the rankings. In contrast, a two-loss Stanford team could still climb into the top 10. It's just the way it is.

It just isn't likely that a USF win over even an unbeaten UCF in November is going to have the same cachet as a win over a two-loss Stanford team.

For G5, the coin of the realm when it comes to CFP positioning is OOC wins, specifically OOC wins over ranked P5 teams. Navy could possibly have that, if you beat Notre Dame and Notre Dame otherwise wins a lot, but USF and UCF simply will not. The CFP just isn't likely to be as impressed with AAC teams beating each other, no matter how unfair that is.

That doesn't mean SDSU will get the NY6 bid if they win out and Stanford runs the table. An unbeaten AAC team, especially USF (since we are already ranked), will be a very formidable candidate as well and it will be a close call. But it will be a very close call, neither side can rest easy about it.

I agree if both run the table it is going to be an extremely close call. With that said the American has 6 teams in the top 51 where as the MWC has 1 and SDSU can't play themselves. I just think the overall body of work would benefit a team in the American as the strength of schedule is simply much better and the committee has focused on that. I do think it will be a very close call though. Still lots of games to be played though so we will see what it looks like in a few weeks.

Again, it isn't OOC only for American teams.

Last year, the committee said out loud and in public that 2-loss Navy was a threat to WMU because of three quality wins, which were all in conference. Disclaimer 1 - there were second-order OOC wins in there - Houston was a quality win for Navy in large part because of Houston's big OOC wins.
Disclaimer 2 - that was in comparison to WMU's win over mid-40s Northwestern...all three of those AAC quality wins were slightly to solidly below where Stanford is now.
It will be interesting to see how the committee handles three B wins vs 1 A- win and nothing else.

Macro-level point remains: any 0- or 1-loss AAC champ, it is NOT a slamdunk for SDSU even with their Stanford win.

Fine, not a 'slam dunk,' but still likely

Can't we all agree that:

1) If SDSU and any AAC team goes unbeaten, it will be a close call, very uncertain, as to what the CFP will do?

2) There is way too much football left to be played to be seriously worrying about this right now?

(09-28-2017 09:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Can't we all agree that:

1) If SDSU and any AAC team goes unbeaten, it will be a close call, very uncertain, as to what the CFP will do?

2) There is way too much football left to be played to be seriously worrying about this right now?

1) no it wont, a 1 loss aac team will be a win or close dependending on the loss. A 2 loss team puts sdsu ahead unless a bunch of things fall the right way.

2) very true and my 1 is very possible, but fanhood argues for everything being equal in which any aac undefeated will have the advantage, and some will have huge advabtages, navy, usf.