Since he put this on his Facebook page and it's open to all, here is the entire story.
Give me three minutes for this week's edition of McMurphy's Law:
I will cut to the chase: the American Athletic Conference is not a power conference. Despite an aggressive Power 6 marketing campaign, #AmericanPow6r hashtags and “P6” plastered on its first-down markers, the American will never be a power league.
I’m not anti-American, I’m a realist. And I don’t hate the AAC or the Group of 5 conferences. I respect Commissioner Mike Aresco a great deal. The league has some of the nation’s best coaches and players. But the AAC a power conference? Nope. There’s a better chance of Notre Dame giving up its football independence today to join the AAC.
I know about the league’s on-field success. Last week, Memphis upset UCLA and USF dominated Illinois. In fact, since 2015, the AAC has played 52 contests against Power 5 leagues. They were the underdog in 42 of those games, but still managed a respectable 21-31 record vs. the Power 5.
The American has proven it can beat anybody – and lose to anybody – as evidenced by its recent 1-8 bowl record vs. other Group of 5 schools. The harsh reality for the AAC – along with Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt – is it is not a power league. Just because you can (occasionally) beat ‘em, you can’t join ‘em.
The on-field results have no impact on what schools have the power. Some deserve to be in a power conference while others may not but were fortunate to wake up with a winning lottery ticket under their pillow (good morning, Rutgers). Yet, there is a clear separation between the Power 5 conferences and the Group of 5. How’s that old junior high school cheer go? “Watermelon, watermelon, watermelon rind! Look at the scoreboard, see who’s behind!”
Check out this scoreboard tally: the revenue from last year’s College Football Playoff.
Big Ten $141 million; $10 million per school
Pac-12 $105 million; $8.75 million per school
SEC $105 million; $7.5 million per school
Big 12 $97 million; $9.7 million per school
ACC $92 million; $6.6 million per school
MAC $19.1 million; $1.89 million per school
Sun Belt $16.7 million; $1.5 million per school
AAC $16.7 million; $1.39 million per school
MWC $16.7 million; $1.39 million per school
C-USA $16.7 million; $1.28 million per school
And this financial disparity - voted on and approved by all 10 conferences - will continue exactly like above for at least the next nine years – the remainder of the CFB Playoff contract.
The TV revenue is just as lopsided. In 2013, the American signed a seven-year media rights deal with ESPN. Add in its basketball contract and the league averages about $20 million per year. The American's entire annual TV package is $11 million less than what every Big Ten "school" will earn.
Before the season Aresco said they “want to be accepted eventually as an autonomy Power 6 conference because we believe we are already a Power 6 conference.” Believing you’re a power conference doesn’t make you a power conference. It’s the same as boasting about your top-four finish at the Olympics. Congrats, but only the top three received medals.
Whether you are college football’s sixth-best or 10th-best conference, it doesn’t matter. It's the same. You are not in the Power 5.
Not too long ago there were six automatic qualifying conferences, but then the Big East was gutted and only five power leagues remained. Maybe in the future, a Power 5 league is raided and we are left with only a Fab Four. Who knows? But there will never again be six power leagues. The Power 5 conferences have made certain of that, having already blocked the Group of 5’s access to the Rose, Sugar and Orange bowls.
Unfortunately for the Group of 5 leagues, a slight twist on a Ricky Bobby quote sums up their fate: “If you ain’t a Power 5, you’re last.”
XX
So what is the Group of 5’s options? Check back with me next week for one radical possibility.
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