(09-14-2017 06:54 PM)Seahawkhoops Wrote: I don't disagree. While i agree there isn't a such thing as Can't miss, wasn't he selected in the first round? First round pitchers have a higher success rate than not.
Well, yeah, the higher you're drafted the better your chances. And part of that is the team that takes a guy in the 1st will invest a lot of time and resources in order to maximize his potential.
But it's baseball, and drafts are 40 rounds. There's a high bust rate even amongst 1st rounders, especially when it comes to pitchers. Just look at the pitchers taken in the top 50 picks in drafts between 2009-2011 (chosen because 2012-present are too recent to make judgment calls):
2009
"Hits" (7): Stephen Strasburg (1st), Mike Leake (8th), Drew Storen (10th), Shelby Miller (19th), James Paxton (37th), Garrett Richards (42nd), Brad Boxberger (43rd)
"Misses" (21): Matt Hobgood (5th), Zack Wheeler (6th), Mike Minor (7th), Jacob Turner (9th), Tyler Matzek (11th), Aaron Crow (12th), Matt Purke (14th), Alex White (15th), Chad James (18th), Chad Jenkins (20th), Kyle Gibson (22nd), Eric Arnett (26th), Rex Brothers (34th), Aaron Miller (36th), Tyler Skaggs (40th), Tanner Scheppers (44th), Michael Belfiore (45th), Matthew Bashore (46th), Kyle Heckathorn (47th), Tyler Kehrer (48th), Vic Black (49th)
2010
Hits (9): Jameson Taillon (2nd overall), Drew Pomeranz (5th), Matt Harvey (7th), Chris Sale (13th), Mike Foltynewicz (19th), Cam Bedrosian (29th), Aaron Sanchez (34th), Noah Syndergaard (38th), Taijuan Walker (43rd)
Misses (15): Barret Loux (6th), Karsten Whitson (9th), Derek McGuire (11th), Dylan Covey (14th), Hayden Simpson (16th), Alex Wimmers (21st), Jesse Biddle (27th), Zach Lee (28th), Anthony Ranaudo (39th), Asher Wojciechowski (41st), Luke Jackson (45th), Seth Blair (46th), Peter Tago (47th), Chance Ruffin (48th), Tyrell Jenkins (50th)
2011
Hits (8): Gerrit Cole (1st), Trevor Bauer (3rd), Dylan Bundy (4th), Jose Fernandez (14th), Sonny Gray (18th), Tyler Anderson (20th), Joe Ross (25th), Michael Fulmer (44th)
Misses (17): Danny Hultzen (2nd), Archie Bradley (7th), Taylor Jungmann (12th), Jed Bradley (15th), Chris Reed (16th), Matt Barnes (19th), Alex Meyer (23rd), Taylor Guerrieri (24th), Robert Stephenson (27th), Sean Gilmartin (28th), Kevin Matthews (33rd), Henry Owens (36th), Jeff Ames (42nd), Andrew Chafin (43rd), Joe Musgrove (46th), Michael Kelly (48th), Kyle Crick (49th)
So by my count, that's 24 hits and 53 misses, or a 68.8 % "Miss Rate". And I imagine if you looked back to 2008 and prior, that "Miss Rate" would be fairly consistent.
Amongst the 24 "hits", I would only count maybe 5-6 guys I'd qualify as "studs".
And amongst those many misses there were plenty of guys who, like Holt, never even made it to the bigs.