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olddawg Offline
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New Rankings and ratings after week 2
New Massey Ratings out- We moved up 4 spots to 51 in the combined FBS/FCS rankings. 2nd to NDSU in FCS.
https://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s...&sub=11590

Sagarin, AGS, Coaches and Stats polls to follow.
09-10-2017 11:24 PM
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Longhorn Offline
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RE: New Rankings and ratings after week 2
(09-10-2017 11:24 PM)olddawg Wrote:  New Massey Ratings out- We moved up 4 spots to 51 in the combined FBS/FCS rankings. 2nd to NDSU in FCS.
https://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s...&sub=11590

Sagarin, AGS, Coaches and Stats polls to follow.

It's early, and the rankings ultimately mean nothing in FCS as the best team is determined on the field through a real playoff system, however, the placement of NDSU in a higher position (than JMU) in rankings like Sagarin exposes how biased or meaningless these "polls" truly are. It's only through some person's guess that NDSU has begun the season ranked so much higher than JMU, and until (and if) JMU gets the chance to play and beat NDSU will there be an adjustment. Even then, after a loss to JMU, NDSU could theoretically remain higher ranked. My complaint holds true for the "power" rankings of conferences too. With New Hamphire's win over an FBS team, and even Elon's win over Furman, you might expect the CAA to get a bump, but somehow in the polls equation NDSU + SDSU > JMU + NHU.
09-10-2017 11:39 PM
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91Alum Offline
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RE: New Rankings and ratings after week 2
(09-10-2017 11:39 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  
(09-10-2017 11:24 PM)olddawg Wrote:  New Massey Ratings out- We moved up 4 spots to 51 in the combined FBS/FCS rankings. 2nd to NDSU in FCS.
https://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s...&sub=11590

Sagarin, AGS, Coaches and Stats polls to follow.

It's early, and the rankings ultimately mean nothing in FCS as the best team is determined on the field through a real playoff system, however, the placement of NDSU in a higher position (than JMU) in rankings like Sagarin exposes how biased or meaningless these "polls" truly are. It's only through some person's guess that NDSU has begun the season ranked so much higher than JMU, and until (and if) JMU gets the chance to play and beat NDSU will there be an adjustment. Even then, after a loss to JMU, NDSU could theoretically remain higher ranked. My complaint holds true for the "power" rankings of conferences too. With New Hamphire's win over an FBS team, and even Elon's win over Furman, you might expect the CAA to get a bump, but somehow in the polls equation NDSU + SDSU > JMU + NHU.

I'm surprised our strength of schedule rankings seem to be so close. It's to the point where we don't even get credit for beating our FBS opponents any more. Their toughest opponent so far has been a down Easten Washington (who is 0-2).

Just so long as we stay Top 2 in the seedlings, we don't have to go back to Fargo and everything in the playoffs comes through BFS.
09-11-2017 07:12 AM
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JMURocks Offline
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RE: New Rankings and ratings after week 2
A lot of these rankings (eg Sagarin) are "weighted" based on prior years and other factors. Sagarin gives NDSU credit for years prior to last year still. This is phased out as the season progresses and the teams are more "connected"

Bottom line is these algorithmic ratings become more accurate as the season progresses. Stats and Coaches polls are the ones I view as significant for now, as it may have some influence at playoff time in determining seeds.
09-11-2017 07:33 AM
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Potomac Offline
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RE: New Rankings and ratings after week 2
(09-11-2017 07:33 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  A lot of these rankings (eg Sagarin) are "weighted" based on prior years and other factors. Sagarin gives NDSU credit for years prior to last year still. This is phased out as the season progresses and the teams are more "connected"

Bottom line is these algorithmic ratings become more accurate as the season progresses. Stats and Coaches polls are the ones I view as significant for now, as it may have some influence at playoff time in determining seeds.

People forget that NDSU has been a semifinal appearance at worst for seven consecutive seasons now. They have not been eliminated earlier in the playoffs them the semifinals since they became eligible for the FCS playoffs beginning in 2010.

These computer models give them credit because they continue to win the overwhelming majority of the time.
(This post was last modified: 09-11-2017 07:48 AM by Potomac.)
09-11-2017 07:47 AM
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JMU08 Offline
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RE: New Rankings and ratings after week 2
(09-11-2017 07:12 AM)91Alum Wrote:  
(09-10-2017 11:39 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  
(09-10-2017 11:24 PM)olddawg Wrote:  New Massey Ratings out- We moved up 4 spots to 51 in the combined FBS/FCS rankings. 2nd to NDSU in FCS.
https://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s...&sub=11590

Sagarin, AGS, Coaches and Stats polls to follow.

It's early, and the rankings ultimately mean nothing in FCS as the best team is determined on the field through a real playoff system, however, the placement of NDSU in a higher position (than JMU) in rankings like Sagarin exposes how biased or meaningless these "polls" truly are. It's only through some person's guess that NDSU has begun the season ranked so much higher than JMU, and until (and if) JMU gets the chance to play and beat NDSU will there be an adjustment. Even then, after a loss to JMU, NDSU could theoretically remain higher ranked. My complaint holds true for the "power" rankings of conferences too. With New Hamphire's win over an FBS team, and even Elon's win over Furman, you might expect the CAA to get a bump, but somehow in the polls equation NDSU + SDSU > JMU + NHU.

I'm surprised our strength of schedule rankings seem to be so close. It's to the point where we don't even get credit for beating our FBS opponents any more. Their toughest opponent so far has been a down Easten Washington (who is 0-2).

Just so long as we stay Top 2 in the seedlings, we don't have to go back to Fargo and everything in the playoffs comes through BFS.

Strength of schedule is dynamic. There's a reason the old BCS system didn't release rankings until week 5. Computed factors, like SoS, don't mean much after 2 weeks. Currently, it sees ECU as almost the same as an FCS team(1 FCS loss, 1 FBS loss), but that'll change as ECU plays more games against FBS teams. The goal of these rankings and systems is to be correct at the end of the regular season, and even then, as we all know, it's just one tool, that's still not perfect.
09-11-2017 07:59 AM
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RE: New Rankings and ratings after week 2
[Image: tumblr_lsrwvcI0lO1qfsr58o1_500.png]

Mike Houston as HC at JMU is still undefeated against D1AA opposition. Let's keep it that way.

04-rock04-rock04-rock04-rock04-rock
09-11-2017 08:26 AM
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olddawg Offline
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RE: New Rankings and ratings after week 2
New Sagarin ratings: We are 70th, NDSU is 50th. 2nd overall amongst FCS schools. Schedule strength so far rated pretty weak, even with an FBS team on the slate.
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
09-11-2017 10:17 AM
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JMURocks Offline
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RE: New Rankings and ratings after week 2
(09-11-2017 10:17 AM)olddawg Wrote:  New Sagarin ratings: We are 70th, NDSU is 50th. 2nd overall amongst FCS schools. Schedule strength so far rated pretty weak, even with an FBS team on the slate.
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Right now, Sagarin thinks SHSU (101) would be favored over ECU (114). Kind of doubt the season ends that way, but it's possible if ECU goes in the tank. Hope they turn it around vs the gobblers next week.
09-11-2017 10:43 AM
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BDKJMU Offline
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RE: New Rankings and ratings after week 2
(09-11-2017 07:47 AM)Potomac Wrote:  
(09-11-2017 07:33 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  A lot of these rankings (eg Sagarin) are "weighted" based on prior years and other factors. Sagarin gives NDSU credit for years prior to last year still. This is phased out as the season progresses and the teams are more "connected"

Bottom line is these algorithmic ratings become more accurate as the season progresses. Stats and Coaches polls are the ones I view as significant for now, as it may have some influence at playoff time in determining seeds.

People forget that NDSU has been a semifinal appearance at worst for seven consecutive seasons now. They have not been eliminated earlier in the playoffs them the semifinals since they became eligible for the FCS playoffs beginning in 2010.

These computer models give them credit because they continue to win the overwhelming majority of the time.

NDSU has been at least the semis in at least 6 straight seasons. The 1st year they were eligible for the playoffs was 2008. The 1st year they made the playoffs was 2010. Their 6 year streak of making at least the semis started in 2011.

I know we have a couple of NDSU lurkers on here that can correct this if wrong.
2004 8-3 1st year playing mostly I-AA schedule (played 3 Div III) (ineligible for playoffs)
2005 7-4 1st year playing full (now) MVFC schedule (ineligible for playoffs)
2006 10-1 (only loss @ Minnesota) (ineligible for playoffs)
2007 10-1 (2 I-A wins over Minnesota and C Mich) (ineligible for playoffs)
2008 6-5 (1st year eligible for playoffs)
2009 3-8
2010 7-4/4-4 1st year in playoffs. Playoffs went from 16 to 20 teams that season, they may have gotten the last at large. Win over Kansas regular season. Lost in the quarterfinals @ #5 seed EWU in OT on a very controversial call in OT. EWU went on to win the NC game over UD..
(This post was last modified: 09-11-2017 12:41 PM by BDKJMU.)
09-11-2017 11:58 AM
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BDKJMU Offline
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RE: New Rankings and ratings after week 2
(09-11-2017 07:59 AM)JMU08 Wrote:  
(09-11-2017 07:12 AM)91Alum Wrote:  
(09-10-2017 11:39 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  
(09-10-2017 11:24 PM)olddawg Wrote:  New Massey Ratings out- We moved up 4 spots to 51 in the combined FBS/FCS rankings. 2nd to NDSU in FCS.
https://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s...&sub=11590

Sagarin, AGS, Coaches and Stats polls to follow.

It's early, and the rankings ultimately mean nothing in FCS as the best team is determined on the field through a real playoff system, however, the placement of NDSU in a higher position (than JMU) in rankings like Sagarin exposes how biased or meaningless these "polls" truly are. It's only through some person's guess that NDSU has begun the season ranked so much higher than JMU, and until (and if) JMU gets the chance to play and beat NDSU will there be an adjustment. Even then, after a loss to JMU, NDSU could theoretically remain higher ranked. My complaint holds true for the "power" rankings of conferences too. With New Hamphire's win over an FBS team, and even Elon's win over Furman, you might expect the CAA to get a bump, but somehow in the polls equation NDSU + SDSU > JMU + NHU.

I'm surprised our strength of schedule rankings seem to be so close. It's to the point where we don't even get credit for beating our FBS opponents any more. Their toughest opponent so far has been a down Easten Washington (who is 0-2).

Just so long as we stay Top 2 in the seedlings, we don't have to go back to Fargo and everything in the playoffs comes through BFS.

Strength of schedule is dynamic. There's a reason the old BCS system didn't release rankings until week 5. Computed factors, like SoS, don't mean much after 2 weeks. Currently, it sees ECU as almost the same as an FCS team(1 FCS loss, 1 FBS loss), but that'll change as ECU plays more games against FBS teams. The goal of these rankings and systems is to be correct at the end of the regular season, and even then, as we all know, it's just one tool, that's still not perfect.
Bingo. These computer rankings are pretty worthless until you're closer to halfway through the season. Only 2 full weeks to go on (and a few teams only 1 game with either byes or hurricane postponements/cancellations). I wouldn't pay them any attention, much less complain or get bent out of shape, until Oct..
09-11-2017 12:05 PM
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Wear Purple Offline
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RE: New Rankings and ratings after week 2
(09-11-2017 12:05 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  Bingo. These computer rankings are pretty worthless until you're closer to halfway through the season. Only 2 full weeks to go on (and a few teams only 1 game with either byes or hurricane postponements/cancellations). I wouldn't pay them any attention, much less complain or get bent out of shape, until Oct..

+1

And by then (halfway), we have the most excellent of all giving us the playoff breakdown. I'm of course talking about NH/JMU Saxkow. A sampling of his weekly contribution... http://csnbbs.com/thread-798393.html

Quite possibly, the best constructed and most informative weekly thread on this board at any time in the year (once we get into the season enough for it to be worthwhile of course).
09-11-2017 12:14 PM
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Potomac Offline
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RE: New Rankings and ratings after week 2
You're right BDK. 2010 was a QF loss for them. I could've sworn I saw someone say they were in the semifinals in 2010 and I took their word for it. Still though, how many programs can say they've made the QFs at minimum for seven consecutive seasons?

They still have yet to have a true road playoff game since that 2010 EWU loss in the QF. Frisco is a neutral site game.
(This post was last modified: 09-11-2017 12:23 PM by Potomac.)
09-11-2017 12:22 PM
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olddawg Offline
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RE: New Rankings and ratings after week 2
New AGS poll. Still #1. Actually like their polls better than the Coaches or Stats:
http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthre...09-11-2017
09-11-2017 01:10 PM
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olddawg Offline
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RE: New Rankings and ratings after week 2
Coaches poll. #1 w/ all but two first place votes:
http://www.espn.com/college-football/ran...asontype/2

Stats poll: #1 w/ 148 out of 159 first place votes:
http://www.fcs.football/cfb/polls.asp?div=fcs#
09-11-2017 01:45 PM
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KickItToScotty Offline
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RE: New Rankings and ratings after week 2
(09-11-2017 01:45 PM)olddawg Wrote:  Coaches poll. #1 w/ all but two first place votes:
http://www.espn.com/college-football/ran...asontype/2

Stats poll: #1 w/ 148 out of 159 first place votes:
http://www.fcs.football/cfb/polls.asp?div=fcs#

At least Sam Houston State stopped getting first place votes. I can kind of understand giving NDSU your #1 spot, but I have no idea what was going through the minds of the people putting Sam Houston State on top.
09-11-2017 02:47 PM
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JMad03 Offline
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RE: New Rankings and ratings after week 2
(09-11-2017 02:47 PM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  
(09-11-2017 01:45 PM)olddawg Wrote:  Coaches poll. #1 w/ all but two first place votes:
http://www.espn.com/college-football/ran...asontype/2

Stats poll: #1 w/ 148 out of 159 first place votes:
http://www.fcs.football/cfb/polls.asp?div=fcs#

At least Sam Houston State stopped getting first place votes. I can kind of understand giving NDSU your #1 spot, but I have no idea what was going through the minds of the people putting Sam Houston State on top.

Give them time. I'm calling it right now- I guarantee they'll start getting first place votes in a few weeks if they keep winning. Some people still give them too much credit for beating cupcakes. Happens every year.
09-11-2017 08:04 PM
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Dukester Offline
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RE: New Rankings and ratings after week 2
(09-11-2017 10:43 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  
(09-11-2017 10:17 AM)olddawg Wrote:  New Sagarin ratings: We are 70th, NDSU is 50th. 2nd overall amongst FCS schools. Schedule strength so far rated pretty weak, even with an FBS team on the slate.
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Right now, Sagarin thinks SHSU (101) would be favored over ECU (114). Kind of doubt the season ends that way, but it's possible if ECU goes in the tank. Hope they turn it around vs the gobblers next week.

It's a bit too early for Sagarins - but I think SHSU is better than ECU as of today. 03-idea

Maybe the end of the season ECU will approve.

ECU was down to WVU 49-3 at the half before they called off the dogs. ECU is not good at all right now. I doubt SHSU would of been down 49-3 at WVU - unless they played them in the playoffs. 03-lmfao
09-11-2017 08:37 PM
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Yesolitis Offline
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RE: New Rankings and ratings after week 2
We also have a few posters that are AGS voters. Every bit of sanity helps equalize the poll. I think AGS is by far the most educated pollsters of FCS football out there. We don't have to coach for a living, so we can use our free time to analyze things a bit more across the leagues and conferences.

ECU also lost a few key players against us. That did not do them any favors in Morgantown last week. The defense is atrocious and the offense is still trying to find its identity. They still have some very talented WRs that are going to waste with a bad O-line and below average/still learning QB. Add in a tough ass schedule and ECU was destined for ESPN's Bottom-10. In reality, they have talent. I'm not sure they have the coaching though.
09-12-2017 03:48 AM
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Potomac Offline
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New Rankings and ratings after week 2
ECU should do themselves a favor and schedule a bit easier while they're in a rebuilding mode. Just do so quietly and I think even your fans will welcome some wins against ULM and GA State instead of losses to WVU and VT.
09-12-2017 05:24 AM
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