(09-12-2017 12:17 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(09-12-2017 09:33 AM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  

(09-12-2017 09:23 AM)Crump1 Wrote:  I thought a power ranking was simply who you think looks like the best team at this point? It is always hard to judge on one or two games, especially when some play road games vs. SEC, ACC, Big Ten while other might have played FCS or MAC type programs. I promise that I will not give any weight when ASU beats UAPB by 60 this weekend.

The disparate scheduling and small sample is why the SBC and CUSA start at the bottom. Much better to schedule Big Ten or lower rung PAC-12 programs if you can get them.

I posted my rankings based on performance to date. Really could not rank them, just group them, so I agree it is hard, and in my case probably impossible.

In fact, as I have said many times all I have ever done is give a prediction of the overall record based only on talent rankings I no longer have access to anyway.

Lets say App had played Savannah State in the first week and not lost to Georgia, would you have placed them at Number 1?

I don't have anybody at #1, and just have four teams that I thought were looking the best thus far, but could not rank them.

As far as the "why" the other SBC teams thought they could beat either AppSt of A-State, Anderson said in the Jonesboro Sun today that "we're going to match up better with them (UAPB) than anybody else on our schedule for the year in terms of size and speed, but it's not played on paper as we said a week ago against Nebraska."

Because UAPB is #253 of the 255 teams ranked in the Jeff Sagarin rankings, there should be a lot of reasons about 252 teams feel that they could beat them.

Not sure anyone has given a good "why" they can beat AppSt.

(09-12-2017 12:15 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(09-11-2017 03:18 PM)airtroop Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 11:59 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 08:45 PM)CoastalAlum2011 Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 08:27 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  They are set to balance action on both sides so that books can profit from the vig. However, if there were a better indicator of game outcomes than Vegas odds then someone would use that and Vegas would be out of business.

There is not a better publicly available indicator of game outcomes than Vegas odds.

It has nothing to do with predicting game outcomes. It has everything to do with predicting the betting public's perception of game outcomes.

Therefore, it's safe to assume that most of the betting public is not going to think a first year FBS team is going to win any given FBS game in their first season. So how do you balance the betting action on both sides? It's simple. You lower the expectations for Coastal on the betting line to try and entice people to take Coastal in their bet.

So if you're predicting a first year FBS team to win, you better keep the spread low so you can still entice people to take them.

It doesn't mean you think Coastal will only win by 3....it means that you think the betting public won't have confidence in a first year FBS squad.

That's what you see reflected there, and you'll see it all year when you look at the lines on Coastal games.

If you presume most of the money put on games is from Bubba betting on Texas Tech because he's a Texas Tech fan or Joe Bob looking at the line and think whatever SEC team is gonna whup up on whatever non-conference team then balancing the money is about the perceptions of uninformed bettors.

The reality is there is a lot of money wagered and the bulk of the real money is people who obsess over power ratings, team performance, injury reports, and such.

If the Bubbas bet Auburn heavily because they think Auburn is going to stomp a Sun Belt team the line climbs and the serious bettors jump in to grab a bargain until they drive it back down.

Good post. In general, betting against the public will assure you will, at worst, break even. The public is more often wrong than they are right.

The only reason you break even is because in the instance that you win, you win more money which covers up for the others losses.

My favorite bet is laying the points when the vig is +. In obvious situations where it is more likely the favored team wins, that is a value bet. Example was the Panthers and 49ers this past weekend. The line was -6 (+125), and was only one of two lines with + vig in the NFL this past week on the spread. That bet covered up for some other off the cuff bets I made last week.

Also won quite a bit of money off of the Kansas City game. The money line was +350 (bet $100 to win $350).

I love those +vig and dawg bets. Reading the lines, the money wagered and the amount wagered can tell you quite a bit also - when you see a line with 40% of the bets but 60% of the money, somebody probably knows something the public doesn't. I'm a fairly successful handicapper and I *always* look for reverse lines as one of my first steps. $$$

(09-10-2017 10:48 AM)runninjoe Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 10:46 AM)LatahCounty Wrote:  1. NMSU
2. App St.
3. Troy
4. Arkansas St? Coastal?
5. Coastal? Arkansas St?
6. I don't know and who cares?

We've lost how many sbc games over the last 6 years and you're not sure if we'd beat Coastal

Didn't you say that about App in 2014?

(09-10-2017 10:54 AM)Arrowhead Wrote:  Am I the only one that doesn't get the infatuation with Coastal? They beat a terrible UMass team by what? 10 points or so? Again, very glad the won and definitely not a bad win, but my money would be on Arkansas St. smoking them. This is not a knock on y'all Coastal fans and I know you have a very good program, but a win over UMass in your first year in the SBC does not put you on the level of stAte already. For your sake and the improvement of the conference I hope you guys are that good, besides got the game in Monroe this year! Lol.

Did you watch the game? Coastal will likely get better as the season the goes along and the players adjust to the increased speed of play from the Big South to Sun Belt conference. I expect they will likely finish in the 8-4 to 6-6 range, due to playing App, Troy, and Arkansas State.

(09-13-2017 07:32 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 10:54 AM)Arrowhead Wrote:  Am I the only one that doesn't get the infatuation with Coastal? They beat a terrible UMass team by what? 10 points or so? Again, very glad the won and definitely not a bad win, but my money would be on Arkansas St. smoking them. This is not a knock on y'all Coastal fans and I know you have a very good program, but a win over UMass in your first year in the SBC does not put you on the level of stAte already. For your sake and the improvement of the conference I hope you guys are that good, besides got the game in Monroe this year! Lol.

Did you watch the game? Coastal will likely get better as the season the goes along and the players adjust to the increased speed of play from the Big South to Sun Belt conference. I expect they will likely finish in the 8-4 to 6-6 range, due to playing App, Troy, and Arkansas State.

Jeez again? It's about you being better on level with Arkansas State.

(09-13-2017 09:02 PM)Golota Wrote:  

(09-13-2017 07:32 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 10:54 AM)Arrowhead Wrote:  Am I the only one that doesn't get the infatuation with Coastal? They beat a terrible UMass team by what? 10 points or so? Again, very glad the won and definitely not a bad win, but my money would be on Arkansas St. smoking them. This is not a knock on y'all Coastal fans and I know you have a very good program, but a win over UMass in your first year in the SBC does not put you on the level of stAte already. For your sake and the improvement of the conference I hope you guys are that good, besides got the game in Monroe this year! Lol.

Did you watch the game? Coastal will likely get better as the season the goes along and the players adjust to the increased speed of play from the Big South to Sun Belt conference. I expect they will likely finish in the 8-4 to 6-6 range, due to playing App, Troy, and Arkansas State.

Jeez again? It's about you being better on level with Arkansas State.

You realize ericsaid is an App St fan, right?

(09-13-2017 09:17 PM)rokamortis Wrote:  

(09-13-2017 09:02 PM)Golota Wrote:  

(09-13-2017 07:32 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 10:54 AM)Arrowhead Wrote:  Am I the only one that doesn't get the infatuation with Coastal? They beat a terrible UMass team by what? 10 points or so? Again, very glad the won and definitely not a bad win, but my money would be on Arkansas St. smoking them. This is not a knock on y'all Coastal fans and I know you have a very good program, but a win over UMass in your first year in the SBC does not put you on the level of stAte already. For your sake and the improvement of the conference I hope you guys are that good, besides got the game in Monroe this year! Lol.

Did you watch the game? Coastal will likely get better as the season the goes along and the players adjust to the increased speed of play from the Big South to Sun Belt conference. I expect they will likely finish in the 8-4 to 6-6 range, due to playing App, Troy, and Arkansas State.

Jeez again? It's about you being better on level with Arkansas State.

You realize ericsaid is an App St fan, right?

Ha noticed after I posted but it's still the same message. He was talking about CC being better than A State.

(09-12-2017 06:27 PM)airtroop Wrote:  

(09-12-2017 12:15 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(09-11-2017 03:18 PM)airtroop Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 11:59 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 08:45 PM)CoastalAlum2011 Wrote:  It has nothing to do with predicting game outcomes. It has everything to do with predicting the betting public's perception of game outcomes.

Therefore, it's safe to assume that most of the betting public is not going to think a first year FBS team is going to win any given FBS game in their first season. So how do you balance the betting action on both sides? It's simple. You lower the expectations for Coastal on the betting line to try and entice people to take Coastal in their bet.

So if you're predicting a first year FBS team to win, you better keep the spread low so you can still entice people to take them.

It doesn't mean you think Coastal will only win by 3....it means that you think the betting public won't have confidence in a first year FBS squad.

That's what you see reflected there, and you'll see it all year when you look at the lines on Coastal games.

If you presume most of the money put on games is from Bubba betting on Texas Tech because he's a Texas Tech fan or Joe Bob looking at the line and think whatever SEC team is gonna whup up on whatever non-conference team then balancing the money is about the perceptions of uninformed bettors.

The reality is there is a lot of money wagered and the bulk of the real money is people who obsess over power ratings, team performance, injury reports, and such.

If the Bubbas bet Auburn heavily because they think Auburn is going to stomp a Sun Belt team the line climbs and the serious bettors jump in to grab a bargain until they drive it back down.

Good post. In general, betting against the public will assure you will, at worst, break even. The public is more often wrong than they are right.

The only reason you break even is because in the instance that you win, you win more money which covers up for the others losses.

My favorite bet is laying the points when the vig is +. In obvious situations where it is more likely the favored team wins, that is a value bet. Example was the Panthers and 49ers this past weekend. The line was -6 (+125), and was only one of two lines with + vig in the NFL this past week on the spread. That bet covered up for some other off the cuff bets I made last week.

Also won quite a bit of money off of the Kansas City game. The money line was +350 (bet $100 to win $350).

I love those +vig and dawg bets. Reading the lines, the money wagered and the amount wagered can tell you quite a bit also - when you see a line with 40% of the bets but 60% of the money, somebody probably knows something the public doesn't. I'm a fairly successful handicapper and I *always* look for reverse lines as one of my first steps. $$$

I have no idea about handicapping as I just got into this beginning in Week 1. I thought that I watch enough football to make it more worth my while than playing scratch offs which require almost no skill unless you sit and watch people buy the tickets, knowing the odds of winners in a roll.

I assume if the vig is + on a favorite on the spread than most people are taking the points. With as much football as I watch and read, I expect I know about the minor details that could affect the game, though it's tough to tell if some big bets are placed by insiders prior to news being announced.

I'll have to research what you were discussing as to where the money is going and handicapping. Thus far, on a $25 investment, I earned about $125. Don't place big bets, 10% to 15% of roll, which is still small, unless i'm sure a team is going to cover; Boise State and New Mexico is an example. Would be an upset for UNM to cover 14 points, especially given how they have played this season thus far.

(09-13-2017 09:26 PM)Golota Wrote:  

(09-13-2017 09:17 PM)rokamortis Wrote:  

(09-13-2017 09:02 PM)Golota Wrote:  

(09-13-2017 07:32 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 10:54 AM)Arrowhead Wrote:  Am I the only one that doesn't get the infatuation with Coastal? They beat a terrible UMass team by what? 10 points or so? Again, very glad the won and definitely not a bad win, but my money would be on Arkansas St. smoking them. This is not a knock on y'all Coastal fans and I know you have a very good program, but a win over UMass in your first year in the SBC does not put you on the level of stAte already. For your sake and the improvement of the conference I hope you guys are that good, besides got the game in Monroe this year! Lol.

Did you watch the game? Coastal will likely get better as the season the goes along and the players adjust to the increased speed of play from the Big South to Sun Belt conference. I expect they will likely finish in the 8-4 to 6-6 range, due to playing App, Troy, and Arkansas State.

Jeez again? It's about you being better on level with Arkansas State.

You realize ericsaid is an App St fan, right?

Ha noticed after I posted but it's still the same message. He was talking about CC being better than A State.

I never said Coastal was better than Arkansas State. I only suggested that no one thought App would beat Arkansas State or Louisiana in 2014, yet App beat both, on the road, after losing to Liberty. Coastal is a bit of a darkhorse in that Chadwells offense is unique in the Sun Belt and much like Southern with Fritz, I feel that could pose problems to conference teams the first season.

Arkansas State is due annually for a let down game, as are most other teams. It may happen to be Coastal. Any given Saturday.

(09-13-2017 09:26 PM)Golota Wrote:  

(09-13-2017 09:17 PM)rokamortis Wrote:  

(09-13-2017 09:02 PM)Golota Wrote:  

(09-13-2017 07:32 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 10:54 AM)Arrowhead Wrote:  Am I the only one that doesn't get the infatuation with Coastal? They beat a terrible UMass team by what? 10 points or so? Again, very glad the won and definitely not a bad win, but my money would be on Arkansas St. smoking them. This is not a knock on y'all Coastal fans and I know you have a very good program, but a win over UMass in your first year in the SBC does not put you on the level of stAte already. For your sake and the improvement of the conference I hope you guys are that good, besides got the game in Monroe this year! Lol.

Did you watch the game? Coastal will likely get better as the season the goes along and the players adjust to the increased speed of play from the Big South to Sun Belt conference. I expect they will likely finish in the 8-4 to 6-6 range, due to playing App, Troy, and Arkansas State.

Jeez again? It's about you being better on level with Arkansas State.

You realize ericsaid is an App St fan, right?

Ha noticed after I posted but it's still the same message. He was talking about CC being better than A State.

Not to mention I stated that Coastal will likely finish with 6 losses because they get the toughest conference line-up of any team, playing App, Troy, and Arkansas State.

(09-12-2017 12:28 PM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  

(09-12-2017 12:17 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(09-12-2017 09:33 AM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  

(09-12-2017 09:23 AM)Crump1 Wrote:  I thought a power ranking was simply who you think looks like the best team at this point? It is always hard to judge on one or two games, especially when some play road games vs. SEC, ACC, Big Ten while other might have played FCS or MAC type programs. I promise that I will not give any weight when ASU beats UAPB by 60 this weekend.

The disparate scheduling and small sample is why the SBC and CUSA start at the bottom. Much better to schedule Big Ten or lower rung PAC-12 programs if you can get them.

I posted my rankings based on performance to date. Really could not rank them, just group them, so I agree it is hard, and in my case probably impossible.

In fact, as I have said many times all I have ever done is give a prediction of the overall record based only on talent rankings I no longer have access to anyway.

Lets say App had played Savannah State in the first week and not lost to Georgia, would you have placed them at Number 1?

I don't have anybody at #1, and just have four teams that I thought were looking the best thus far, but could not rank them.

As far as the "why" the other SBC teams thought they could beat either AppSt of A-State, Anderson said in the Jonesboro Sun today that "we're going to match up better with them (UAPB) than anybody else on our schedule for the year in terms of size and speed, but it's not played on paper as we said a week ago against Nebraska."

Because UAPB is #253 of the 255 teams ranked in the Jeff Sagarin rankings, there should be a lot of reasons about 252 teams feel that they could beat them.

Not sure anyone has given a good "why" they can beat AppSt.

I'm not sure exactly Anderson would even mention that. State could likely win 70-7 if they wanted to in this game and it goes without saying that you match up well against a bottom dweller in the FCS.

Teams who can stop the long run and are deep on the defensive line can beat App. Teams who can stretch the field on offense can also beat App. Troy is dangerous because they run option routes in which the receiver goes to a point depending on the defensive coverage and that gave App fits at points in the game last season, ultimately giving Troy the ability to drive the field to end the game.

The only problem is that I don't see a team aside from Wake Forest that can truly match-up with App across the board on the schedule this year. Deserved or not, App will get credit for being at least a 10 win team (I have App losing to Wake by a couple touchdowns) despite a horrific conference schedule that see's any semblance of rivalry (was being built with Troy, was established with Arkansas State after 2015) wiped out by poor Sun Belt conference planning.

In my humble opinion, any league schedule that doesn't have App, Southern, Troy, and Arkansas State playing each other isn't getting the best out of what the conference can offer.

I really don't think the way that comes across is what he meant, or he is getting really good at "coach speak", which is a very good thing IMO.

I did watch them in their game against Akron on ESPN3, and while they are better than they have been recently, they probably don't match-up with any SBC team at any position.

(09-15-2017 12:06 PM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  I really don't think the way that comes across is what he meant, or he is getting really good at "coach speak", which is a very good thing IMO.

I did watch them in their game against Akron on ESPN3, and while they are better than they have been recently, they probably don't match-up with any SBC team at any position.

What he said he the equivalent of Nick Saban saying that Georgia State matches up with them better than any team on the schedule.

The only purpose this serves is to treat it like any other game, lest they have another UCA moment.