RE: Preseason predictions
Our unknowns outweigh our knowns at this point.
1. What will we look like on the floor minus the press? It was our X factor while Keatts was here, and gave us bursts of scoring that could put a game out of reach or get us back in games quickly. It also allowed our undersized roster to play off speed and endurance to wear down opponents.
My feeling... Yes, the press is good, but what happens when it doesn't bother the other team. Often times, our Hawks didn't sell out on the press and just traded not trying at all to get steals. It was more to get the game going faster and the more possessions ended up in the Hawks favor do to having better offensive players and endurance to some extent.
2. Will Cacok play the 4 or 5 this year? UNCW gave up size at the 4 in favor of the offensive mismatch last year. If Cacock moves to the 4, we gain size in the post and a more traditional inside/out offense. If he stays at the 5, who plays the four? Elmore or another guard?
My gut tells me that Cacok will guard a 4 or 5 depending on who is in. Elmore will get minutes and may get a lot of minutes because he can shoot the ball well and can score. This is going to depend on match ups. You may see the other two bigs play a lot of minutes with the new staff.
3. Do we have enough overall talent to compete at the top of the CAA? We know what Cacock and Talley can do on the floor as starters and in clutch situations. They're good. Fornes has shown he can be good. Marcus Bryan has looked below average, Elmore hasn't played enough to know what he can do, and Richmond has looked average at best. Every other player is an unknown at this point.
Good question. It's going to be tougher this year. Look for Fornes to be a dependable scorer. We will have to see how it shakes out but there is some talent available albeit young/inexperienced. Look for Elmore to step up and get some things done. On paper, you would think that Fornes, Cacok and Talley are guys that can get you double figures and we don't know much about Taylor yet. Who know's if Estime is ready to roll yet...he's just a freshman as is Gary? You can't be top dog every year if your coach leaves. If Bryce were still here, we would be #1 again or #2 but he's gone. Scoring will be a guess at this point, BUT I'm alll about the collective D. That's where UNCW needs to be better.
4. Coaching? How do the players respond to McGrath if we don't come out of the gate winning? Unlike the past, when our players were used to losing and Keatts had to get them to believe in themselves, McGrath will be dealing with players who've only experienced winning and finishing first in the CAA. How does he handle in game adjustments, substitutions, strategy? All unknown.
Coaching. Well let's wait and see. I'm expecting an upgrade/push on this and that may surprise some but Keatts was stubborn at times with respect to playing some zone and sold out the entire floor when he didn't need to-either press or token press-don't get stuck in between. This new coach has seen it all and at the highest level so I'm thinking that speaks for itself. Still, Keatts had a way to get guys to play to win and that is a real feather in his cap. That's his gift and you have to give it to the man. He also had top flight talent too and having coached myself..makes it WAY easier. Keatts was good with regular guys but great with great players. They never played good D IMHO which was the ultimate issue with me.
5. Assistants. With a very experienced coaching staff(on paper, the best we've ever had), this may be the most encouraging aspect of this upcoming year. It's by far the most compelling reason to believe we can maintain a high level of play. I expect to see a great deal of player improvement, especially with our big men with Wolfe on the bench. Keatts was more involved in using the best players available to win games and spent little time on developing players who weren't in his game plan.
They seem great. Let's see. You can only do what your talent level will allow you to do but I feel good about the staff. This staff is more seasoned and should help get guys to play at their potential. That's all you can ask.
IMO, 6th is too low and 2nd too high. CofC and Towson should be the favorites at this point. I predict UNCW finishes in the 3-5 range. Elon is a sleeper that could surprise everyone.
This year isn't on this staff to win big or the CAA. They need to establish their way of teaching the game. Let's wait and see. In the long run, this staff may be very good for the program. It's about program direction at this point and I'm digging it thus far.
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