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Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
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Kronke Offline
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Post: #61
Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(09-01-2017 07:45 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(09-01-2017 06:50 PM)Kronke Wrote:  04-jawdrop 04-jawdrop 04-jawdrop

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=39.7;-81.6;5...0170910/15

You might as well have posted something from Cartoon Network. It would be just as accurate

Those models are only accurate up to 5 days or so in the future, but any particular one could end up being right on the money, you don't know, so I'm not sure what you're talking about.
(This post was last modified: 09-01-2017 09:11 PM by Kronke.)
09-01-2017 07:53 PM
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EverRespect Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(09-01-2017 07:53 PM)Kronke Wrote:  
(09-01-2017 07:45 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(09-01-2017 06:50 PM)Kronke Wrote:  04-jawdrop 04-jawdrop 04-jawdrop

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=39.7;-81.6;5...0170910/15

You might as well have posted something from Cartoon Network. It would be just as accurate

Those models are only accurate up to 5 days or so in the future, but any particular one could end up being right on the money, you don't know, so I'm not sure what you're talking about.
A storm will not sustain itself at that latitude. With that track, it will start to fall apart before it reaches NC. The track is plausible, but there is a better chance of Obama, Trump, David Duke, and Vladimir Putin having a beer together than a storm of that intensity hitting NY or anywhere else North of Cape Lookout.

Floyd, Sandy, and Isabel were dying Cat 5s that effected the mid Atlantic. That is more like what could happen here.

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(This post was last modified: 09-01-2017 10:17 PM by EverRespect.)
09-01-2017 10:15 PM
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Kaplony Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(09-01-2017 07:53 PM)Kronke Wrote:  
(09-01-2017 07:45 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(09-01-2017 06:50 PM)Kronke Wrote:  04-jawdrop 04-jawdrop 04-jawdrop

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=39.7;-81.6;5...0170910/15

You might as well have posted something from Cartoon Network. It would be just as accurate

Those models are only accurate up to 5 days or so in the future, but any particular one could end up being right on the money, you don't know, so I'm not sure what you're talking about.

You want to put money on the model you posted being accurate?
09-01-2017 10:17 PM
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Kronke Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(09-01-2017 10:17 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(09-01-2017 07:53 PM)Kronke Wrote:  
(09-01-2017 07:45 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(09-01-2017 06:50 PM)Kronke Wrote:  04-jawdrop 04-jawdrop 04-jawdrop

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=39.7;-81.6;5...0170910/15

You might as well have posted something from Cartoon Network. It would be just as accurate

Those models are only accurate up to 5 days or so in the future, but any particular one could end up being right on the money, you don't know, so I'm not sure what you're talking about.

You want to put money on the model you posted being accurate?

Not really. What do you consider more accurate and where does it show it going?
09-01-2017 10:18 PM
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Kaplony Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(09-01-2017 10:18 PM)Kronke Wrote:  
(09-01-2017 10:17 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(09-01-2017 07:53 PM)Kronke Wrote:  
(09-01-2017 07:45 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(09-01-2017 06:50 PM)Kronke Wrote:  04-jawdrop 04-jawdrop 04-jawdrop

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=39.7;-81.6;5...0170910/15

You might as well have posted something from Cartoon Network. It would be just as accurate

Those models are only accurate up to 5 days or so in the future, but any particular one could end up being right on the money, you don't know, so I'm not sure what you're talking about.

You want to put money on the model you posted being accurate?

Not really. What do you consider more accurate and where does it show it going?

At this point? None of the models are accurate. This far out there are too many factors at play that will have an effect on where this storm goes, how intense it is, etc.
09-01-2017 10:25 PM
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Kronke Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
GFS has it hitting the SC/NC border now.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=32.61;-77.38...0170911/21
09-03-2017 03:54 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
Still seems to be too much uncertainty. They appear to have ruled out a trip into the Gulf, but they seem split on an East Coast danger, or perhaps being taken out to sea (obviously the best path for all of us).
09-03-2017 04:54 PM
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Kaplony Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(09-03-2017 04:54 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Still seems to be too much uncertainty. They appear to have ruled out a trip into the Gulf, but they seem split on an East Coast danger, or perhaps being taken out to sea (obviously the best path for all of us).

It's going to be at least Tuesday until the picture becomes clear enough to say if it's going to hit the Continental US or not.
09-03-2017 05:41 PM
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WoodlandsOwl Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
8:00 AST Advisory shows a shift from SW at 14 MPH to W at 14 MPH. Max winds 115 KT.

Still too early. I just hope it doesn't cross S Florida and go into the Gulf.
09-03-2017 07:06 PM
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Post: #70
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(09-03-2017 07:06 PM)WoodlandsOwl Wrote:  8:00 AST Advisory shows a shift from SW at 14 MPH to W at 14 MPH. Max winds 115 KT.

Still too early. I just hope it doesn't cross S Florida and go into the Gulf.

you and me both....
09-03-2017 09:25 PM
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WoodlandsOwl Offline
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Post: #71
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(09-03-2017 09:25 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  
(09-03-2017 07:06 PM)WoodlandsOwl Wrote:  8:00 AST Advisory shows a shift from SW at 14 MPH to W at 14 MPH. Max winds 115 KT.

Still too early. I just hope it doesn't cross S Florida and go into the Gulf.

you and me both....

Model Runs keep shifting West.

[Image: at201711_model.gif]
09-04-2017 02:40 AM
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WoodlandsOwl Offline
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Post: #72
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
Shooting the Gap in the Florida Straits? 5:00 AM EST 4 September, 2017

[Image: at201711_5day.gif]
09-04-2017 04:07 AM
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WoodlandsOwl Offline
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Post: #73
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
This time Wednesday Morning might be pretty interesting. It better be turned to the NNW by then or everyone between Brownsville and Key West will be in a panic, fueled by the TV coverage of Harvey.

It's 2005 all over again.
(This post was last modified: 09-04-2017 04:14 AM by WoodlandsOwl.)
09-04-2017 04:10 AM
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stinkfist Online
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Post: #74
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(09-04-2017 04:10 AM)WoodlandsOwl Wrote:  This time Wednesday Morning might be pretty interesting. It better be turned to the NNW by then or everyone between Brownsville and Key West will be in a panic, fueled by the TV coverage of Harvey.

It's 2005 all over again.

it's looking that way.....this one has me very nervous....

I'm 60 mi. inland.....we've already doubled our annual rainfall amount this year....I'm certain all the gulf coastline is in the same situation....even at that distance, Katrina caused power/water outages for up to three weeks for some.....the MS coast is still dealing with the residual from Kat....

it she crosses over into the gulf, it's gonna be devastating wherever it makes landfall....
(This post was last modified: 09-04-2017 04:40 AM by stinkfist.)
09-04-2017 04:24 AM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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Post: #75
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
I still don't think Texas is a possibility. If it gets into Cuba, the mountains there tend to wreck havoc on hurricanes. There is also a cold front sweeping down to the Gulf late next week that would likely move the storm east (or north) eventually.

It is looking more and more scary for Florida.
09-04-2017 06:15 AM
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BlazerFan11 Offline
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Post: #76
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(09-01-2017 04:17 PM)Machiavelli Wrote:  It's crazy that as soon as you get a Republican prez you get nailed with these hurricanes again. Almost like a liberal has a switch to put in on the front burner. Crazy.

Putin hacked the weather to cause more natural disasters, which unite people and push Presidential approval ratings up.
09-04-2017 06:19 AM
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stinkfist Online
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Post: #77
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(09-04-2017 06:15 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I still don't think Texas is a possibility. If it gets into Cuba, the mountains there tend to wreck havoc on hurricanes. There is also a cold front sweeping down to the Gulf late next week that would likely move the storm east (or north) eventually.

It is looking more and more scary for Florida.

agree....however, if it crosses over, it could push up anywhere from N.O. to the panhandle....

the last thing that needs to happen is for it to hit the gulf....that cold front won't affect the water temps....however, it will help once it hits land....
09-04-2017 06:27 AM
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Kaplony Offline
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Post: #78
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
Latest Forecast Discussion from the National Hurricane Center.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIA...0854.shtml

Key part of the discussion:

Quote:3. It is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have
on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in
hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane
plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.
09-04-2017 07:46 AM
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stinkfist Online
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Post: #79
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
(09-04-2017 07:46 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  Latest Forecast Discussion from the National Hurricane Center.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIA...0854.shtml

Key part of the discussion:

Quote:3. It is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have
on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in
hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane
plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.

just talked to pops about this one....forced him to ensure his generator was still functional and was aware....

good luck to you guys....

I take nothing for granted after living 43 yrs here....been through too many....
09-04-2017 08:15 AM
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EverRespect Offline
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Post: #80
RE: Irma could become hurricane by Friday...
Yesterday, best case scenario was out to sea. Now best case is death over Cuba.

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09-04-2017 09:56 AM
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