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2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
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Potomac Offline
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Post: #41
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
The huge thing about the ECU win too is that it just gave us an extra FCS loss margin of error from a playoff seeding perspective. It unofficially "excuses" up to one quality loss.
(This post was last modified: 09-06-2017 02:58 PM by Potomac.)
09-06-2017 02:57 PM
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Longhorn Offline
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Post: #42
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
(09-06-2017 02:57 PM)Potomac Wrote:  The huge thing about the ECU win too is that it just gave us an extra FCS loss margin of error from a playoff seeding perspective. It unofficially "excuses" up to one quality loss.

JMU isn't losing this season.
09-06-2017 03:01 PM
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Potomac Offline
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Post: #43
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
(09-06-2017 03:01 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  
(09-06-2017 02:57 PM)Potomac Wrote:  The huge thing about the ECU win too is that it just gave us an extra FCS loss margin of error from a playoff seeding perspective. It unofficially "excuses" up to one quality loss.

JMU isn't losing this season.

We're a heavy favorite in every remaining game. No lower than an 86% chance of beating every team and that toughest opponent is Villanova.
09-06-2017 03:03 PM
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bcp_jmu Offline
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Post: #44
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
Updated

bcp_jmu: 14-1 (loss to 'Nova called)
DirtyDukes: 15-0
Deez Nuts: 16-0 (that will be amazing)
jmufan2008: 15-0
Potomac: 10-1 (semifinal loss)
BDKJMU: 14-1 (loss to ECU or DU called)
bridgeforthduke: 10-1
olderduke: 15-0 (inferred)
Wear Purple: 15-0 (with authority)
Hart Foundation9-2 (semifinal loss)
Longhorn: 15-0 (with authority)
Bill: 13-2
Knit35: 12-3 (or 13-3 if we don't get the bye)
Doox: 17-0 (classic)
JMU 71: 9-2 (what's a "deep run"?)
BleedingPurple: 15-0
JMU2004: 9-2 (ECU, UR, WM or UD loss called - "make" or "win" NC?)
JMUNation: 15-0
Jay M. Youix: 15-0
JMURocks: 15-0 (asterisk prediction for after the bell)
09-06-2017 03:09 PM
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DirtyDukes Offline
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Post: #45
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
Who the **** are we going to lose to
09-06-2017 03:25 PM
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Bisonlurker Offline
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Post: #46
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
I just don't see you guys losing during the regular season unless you lose a couple key players to injury. If the Nova game was away maybe, but not at home. I think you guys win all games by 7 points or more.
09-06-2017 10:26 PM
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DirtyDukes Offline
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Post: #47
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
(09-06-2017 10:26 PM)Bisonlurker Wrote:  I just don't see you guys losing during the regular season unless you lose a couple key players to injury. If the Nova game was away maybe, but not at home. I think you guys win all games by 7 points or more.

This Bizzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzon gets it
09-07-2017 08:11 AM
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Wear Purple Offline
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Post: #48
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
(09-06-2017 03:25 PM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  Who the **** are we going to lose to

Another question...

...who the hell is going to score on us?

It took a short field (25 yds) for ECU to do it. The last TD was with 25 seconds left, the game out of hand, and our backups in.

This Dukes defense is LOADED and stingy. Maybe my question should be who the hell is going to score on our starting D because I'm sure we'll give up a late TD here or there. Maybe an offensive blunder (like at ECU) or special teams lapse. I just don't see very many threats on our schedule of teams who are going to drive the ball down the field against this JMU defense for any length/time.
09-07-2017 08:24 AM
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Potomac Offline
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Post: #49
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
(09-07-2017 08:24 AM)Wear Purple Wrote:  I just don't see very many threats on our schedule of teams who are going to drive the ball down the field against this JMU defense for any length/time.

As it stands right now, Lauletta and UR are the only real threat to do that. Maine couldn't beat UNH on the road, they won't beat us in front of a sold out crowd.
UD is probably the trap game but they're still a big question mark trending more towards not that good still.
VU barely beat Lehigh by a field goal and even gave up 35 points with a supposedly stellar defense. Nothing too concerning yet.
WM could be a trap game too but dukes fans will help turn that into BFS East and the nerds need to show me they can hang before I'm too concerned. They're still looking for a good QB.
UNH barely got by Maine and was in a position to lose several times. Maine was just inept.
URI may have took CMU to 3OT, but that's more of a statement of how bad CMU is than how good URI will be. They won't turn around a 77 point loss in one season.
UR probably the only offense that could gash us, but they better hope their defense is better than what showed up at SHSU or they won't stop us.
Elon will improve, but how much? The verdict is still out there. Either way, not enough to have a shot against us.
09-07-2017 08:31 AM
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JMad03 Online
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Post: #50
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
I thought I had my prediction in, and I know it's going to have an asterisk, but I say we go 14-1.
09-07-2017 08:35 AM
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Wear Purple Offline
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Post: #51
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
Since the Richmond game last year, we have played 7 games with only Elon being a cupcake. This streak has included a road game at Nova, home games against UNH and SHSU in the playoffs, and games away from BFS at NDSU, vs YSU in Texas and at ECU.

Our defense in this streak has given up a total of 35 points in the first half. That's 5 ppg allowed at halftime. The most anybody has scored is 7 pts at the half (5 of the 7 games). The Softies and ECU were of course shutout at the half.

Our 1st team defense for the full game has given up a total of 67 pts during this 7-game streak. That's 9.6 ppg. Again, this is against the stronger set of opponents we have or will face (less Elon).

It is like a light bulb turned on for this defense after giving up 43 at UR last year. Think about that for a sec. We gave up 43 at UR and since then in 7 games our 1st team D has given up 67.
09-07-2017 08:42 AM
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TXGiant Offline
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Post: #52
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
(09-07-2017 08:42 AM)Wear Purple Wrote:  Since the Richmond game last year, we have played 7 games with only Elon being a cupcake. This streak has included a road game at Nova, home games against UNH and SHSU in the playoffs, and games away from BFS at NDSU, vs YSU in Texas and at ECU.

Our defense in this streak has given up a total of 35 points in the first half. That's 5 ppg allowed at halftime. The most anybody has scored is 7 pts at the half (5 of the 7 games). The Softies and ECU were of course shutout at the half.

Our 1st team defense for the full game has given up a total of 67 pts during this 7-game streak. That's 9.6 ppg. Again, this is against the stronger set of opponents we have or will face (less Elon).

It is like a light bulb turned on for this defense after giving up 43 at UR last year. Think about that for a sec. We gave up 43 at UR and since then in 7 games our 1st team D has given up 67.

This!
09-07-2017 08:57 AM
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bcp_jmu Offline
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Post: #53
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
good point...may have been that UNH game that woke them up too... incredible when you think how BAD this D was a couple years ago - mostly the same players...that's leadership there, that's good leadership
09-07-2017 10:11 AM
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Dukie95 Offline
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Post: #54
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
This isn't the strong CAA of the twenty-oughts....I honestly don't see any losses.

I've been around a long time and have been very conservative. I knew 2008 would be a monster year, but I don't think I've ever predicted a season sweep.
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2017 10:25 AM by Dukie95.)
09-07-2017 10:24 AM
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bcp_jmu Offline
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Post: #55
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
OK - going to do a weekly tracker on this...everyone is still in it. There is some subjectivity to this due to the flabby predictions :) For folks that did a regular season prediction only, I added in your inferred playoff run to the overall record (please check on those for me and ping if you disagree).


MOST PURPLE
Doox: 17-0 (classic)
Deez Nuts: 16-0 (that will be amazing)
DirtyDukes: 15-0
JMUFan2008: 15-0
Olderduke: 15-0 (inferred)
Wear Purple: 15-0 (with authority)
Longhorn: 15-0 (with authority)
JMURocks: 15-0 (asterisk prediction for after the bell)
JMUNation: 15-0
Jay M. Youix: 15-0
BleedingPurple: 15-0


DEEP PURPLE
bcp_jmu: 14-1 (loss to 'Nova called)
BDKJMU: 14-1 (loss to ECU or DU called)
Bill: 13-2

SEMI PURPLE
JMU2004: 12-2 (ECU, UR, WM or UD losses called, semi loss)
Potomac: 12-2 (semifinal loss)
Hart Foundation: 11-3 (semifinal loss)


PURPLE CLARIFICATION NEEDED
Knit35: 12-3 (or 13-3 if we don't get the bye - which? assume this means NC either way?)
bridgeforthduke: 10-1 (can you make a playoffs prediction?)
JMU 71: 9-2 (can you make a playoffs prediction?)
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2017 10:33 AM by bcp_jmu.)
09-07-2017 10:27 AM
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bridgeforthduke Offline
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Post: #56
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
In response to the above, playoff prediction would be undefeated. Back to back champs with a win over South Dakota State in the championship. Yes I said South, not North.
09-07-2017 10:56 AM
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JMU_71 Offline
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Post: #57
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
(09-06-2017 02:02 PM)bcp_jmu Wrote:  JMU 71: 9-2 (what's a "deep run"?)

I explained what I meant in the next sentence. Either we lose a close one in the semis or we make it to Frisco. If you need further clarification, here it is: 11-3.
09-07-2017 11:14 AM
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bcp_jmu Offline
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Post: #58
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
Thanks for updates! This will be a boring set of updates for a while I'm guessing...

MOST PURPLE
Doox: 17-0 (classic)
Deez Nuts: 16-0 (that will be amazing)
DirtyDukes: 15-0
JMUFan2008: 15-0
Olderduke: 15-0 (inferred)
Wear Purple: 15-0 (with authority)
Longhorn: 15-0 (with authority)
JMURocks: 15-0 (asterisk prediction for after the bell)
JMUNation: 15-0
Jay M. Youix: 15-0
BleedingPurple: 15-0


DEEP PURPLE
bcp_jmu: 14-1 (nc, but loss to 'Nova called)
BDKJMU: 14-1 (nc, but loss to ECU or DU called)
bridgeforthduke: 14-1 (nc with W over SDakota State called)
Bill: 13-2 (nc assumes 2 liss dukes get a bye)
Knit35: 13-3 (nc but assumes no bye for 3 loss Dukes)

SEMI PURPLE
JMU2004: 12-2 (ECU, UR, WM or UD losses called, semi loss)
Potomac: 12-2 (semifinal loss)
Hart Foundation: 11-3 (semifinal loss)
JMU 71: 11-3 (semifinal loss)
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2017 12:38 PM by bcp_jmu.)
09-07-2017 11:51 AM
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Jay M. Youix Offline
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Post: #59
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
(09-07-2017 11:51 AM)bcp_jmu Wrote:  Thanks for updates! This will be a boring set of updates for a while I'm guessing...

can I update my record, also? i'd like to update it after the Richmond game. 04-cheers
09-07-2017 12:32 PM
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JMURocks Offline
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Post: #60
RE: 2017 Dukes Official Season Record Predictions
(09-06-2017 02:55 PM)Potomac Wrote:  
(09-06-2017 02:00 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  Also, FWIW and as stated previously, I think odds are close to 75% Frisco will be JMU vs the Bison. Still a bit concerned they will buy up the lions share of the seats this year. I don't see the committee putting us on the same side of the bracket with them.

NDSU will lose a minimum of one game this regular season. Their conference is too strong. They'd probably need to drop at least 2 though to not be a top 2 seed.

If JMU was a 1 seed and NDSU dropped to a 3 seed, they would still be on the other side of the bracket. My opinion is if JMU and NDSU are both top 4 seeds, it's highly likely we face off at Frisco. Anything can happen, but the odds of this look good to me.
09-07-2017 01:57 PM
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