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Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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Post: #1
Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
I initially posted this in another thread, but thought it might stand better on its own thread.

I'm mostly just throwing this out there, not sure I believe it would happen, but think it is plausible.

Assumptions:
1) OK wants in the SEC.
2) OK has an easier time going to the SEC if OK State moves with them.
3) The SEC has an easier time accepting OK State if OK State is seen as an elite football school.

So, I'm wondering if we will see some "thrown" games. For instance, if OK beats OK State in the regular season, but has 2 losses and is not playoff team, they might throw the game to allow OK State to be the Big 12 champ. Then when the SEC expands they are expanding with another conferences champ.

The same could be said if ESPN wanted WVU in the SEC for instance, but I'm thinking OK State is higher up on the list for the SEC in order to bring in OK.

Is this feasible? Would a school or a network throw a game to help along their realignment strategy?
08-25-2017 07:00 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
(08-25-2017 07:00 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I initially posted this in another thread, but thought it might stand better on its own thread.

I'm mostly just throwing this out there, not sure I believe it would happen, but think it is plausible.

Assumptions:
1) OK wants in the SEC.
2) OK has an easier time going to the SEC if OK State moves with them.
3) The SEC has an easier time accepting OK State if OK State is seen as an elite football school.

So, I'm wondering if we will see some "thrown" games. For instance, if OK beats OK State in the regular season, but has 2 losses and is not playoff team, they might throw the game to allow OK State to be the Big 12 champ. Then when the SEC expands they are expanding with another conferences champ.

The same could be said if ESPN wanted WVU in the SEC for instance, but I'm thinking OK State is higher up on the list for the SEC in order to bring in OK.

Is this feasible? Would a school or a network throw a game to help along their realignment strategy?

I have strongly suspected point shaving at times, but that is usually controlled by an official making holding or interference calls, either of which can be called on almost any passing play, and holding on any running play (along with the block in the back). It might even be argued that the temptation exists in some CCG for the team with 2 or 3 losses to lose so that their conference gets its loftiest ranked team in. But, I can't see any circumstance where the conferences or officials could be bribed to boost someone's ability to defect to another conference.

Besides in this circumstance Oklahoma State is a wash with West Virginia and both would be behind Kansas and a number 2 pairing with Oklahoma. So it would probably be Oklahoma's call if Kansas wasn't coming as to whether they would want OSU or WVU to be #2. So no need for chicanery.
08-25-2017 07:16 PM
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murrdcu Offline
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RE: Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
(08-25-2017 07:00 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I initially posted this in another thread, but thought it might stand better on its own thread.

I'm mostly just throwing this out there, not sure I believe it would happen, but think it is plausible.

Assumptions:
1) OK wants in the SEC.
2) OK has an easier time going to the SEC if OK State moves with them.
3) The SEC has an easier time accepting OK State if OK State is seen as an elite football school.

So, I'm wondering if we will see some "thrown" games. For instance, if OK beats OK State in the regular season, but has 2 losses and is not playoff team, they might throw the game to allow OK State to be the Big 12 champ. Then when the SEC expands they are expanding with another conferences champ.

The same could be said if ESPN wanted WVU in the SEC for instance, but I'm thinking OK State is higher up on the list for the SEC in order to bring in OK.

Is this feasible? Would a school or a network throw a game to help along their realignment strategy?

To throw a game, there has to be a reason; money, realignment odds, something.

The Pokies have nice facilities, competitive sports and good support. Their fan base is only larger than Vanderbilt and the Mississippi schools. I'm sure the SEC would prefer a Texas, Virginia Tech, West Virginia or some other new market addition to compliment adding an Oklahoma, but if the TV payouts and scheduling works out, adding OK State could work.
08-25-2017 07:19 PM
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10thMountain Offline
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RE: Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
I just don't believe ESPN is willing to pay enough for a 2nd team in an already small state. I also don't believe any conspiracy that deep exists to make them appear more attractive to get us to ignore that same reality that all they do financially is lessen the positive financial impact of adding OU.
08-25-2017 09:31 PM
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XLance Offline
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RE: Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
(08-25-2017 09:31 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  I just don't believe ESPN is willing to pay enough for a 2nd team in an already small state. I also don't believe any conspiracy that deep exists to make them appear more attractive to get us to ignore that same reality that all they do financially is lessen the positive financial impact of adding OU.

The one thing that ESPN does not want is the B1G on Texas' border. If they have to take 'em both to prevent it.....then so be it!
08-27-2017 01:43 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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RE: Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
(08-27-2017 01:43 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(08-25-2017 09:31 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  I just don't believe ESPN is willing to pay enough for a 2nd team in an already small state. I also don't believe any conspiracy that deep exists to make them appear more attractive to get us to ignore that same reality that all they do financially is lessen the positive financial impact of adding OU.

The one thing that ESPN does not want is the B1G on Texas' border. If they have to take 'em both to prevent it.....then so be it!

That and the market model, even at is height, was overrated.

People want to watch quality games and while having a large fan base certainly helps, what matters most is whether or not you have an attractive product. Oklahoma State is a better program that most in the Big 12.

If market size was the end-all be-all then schools like Syracuse would be invaluable.
08-27-2017 04:07 PM
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10thMountain Offline
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RE: Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
1) How good will they be once T. Boone is gone and no longer floating their AD?

2) OKST has zero history with any of the current SEC schools but Missouri and that was never a rivalry or game either school cared about.

3) OSUs presence means fewer matchups between SEC schools fans DO want to see.

4) Their presence does nothing but water down the money just OU would bring.

I could be wrong, but there are just too many negatives and unknowns to bring in OSU.
08-27-2017 06:30 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
(08-27-2017 06:30 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  1) How good will they be once T. Boone is gone and no longer floating their AD?
I'm pretty sure I heard him say on a business channel interview that he would endow O.S.U. by bequest.

2) OKST has zero history with any of the current SEC schools but Missouri and that was never a rivalry or game either school cared about.
True, but if they are in a division of essentially old SWC/Big 8 schools that would minimize that issue. Now I'm not saying this will happen, just that adding 4 instead of just two and placing Arkansas and Missouri in that division makes some sense. A&M would stay with L.S.U. and Alabama if that ever happened.

3) OSUs presence means fewer matchups between SEC schools fans DO want to see.
See answer to #2

4) Their presence does nothing but water down the money just OU would bring.
That depends on if OU's acceptance is contingent upon including OSU. If we don't get OU without them then we have to make a decision as to whether having OU (which essentially limits the B1G's ability to leverage their value into making them the best paid conference) even at a reduced rate is worth it.

I could be wrong, but there are just too many negatives and unknowns to bring in OSU.
We'll just have to wait and see what the conference does on this one.
08-27-2017 07:19 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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RE: Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
(08-27-2017 06:30 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  1) How good will they be once T. Boone is gone and no longer floating their AD?

2) OKST has zero history with any of the current SEC schools but Missouri and that was never a rivalry or game either school cared about.

3) OSUs presence means fewer matchups between SEC schools fans DO want to see.

4) Their presence does nothing but water down the money just OU would bring.

I could be wrong, but there are just too many negatives and unknowns to bring in OSU.

1. It's a reasonable concern, but generally speaking when enough capital has been put into a program to make it competitive then it's not going to go anywhere. Pickens has enough money that he could ensure the success of OSU long after he's gone by investing in athletic endowments. I'm not sure if he's done that already or not, but I wouldn't be surprised if something like that was a condition of OSU joining the SEC. It would probably be wise of our leaders to make sure OSU is committed to the future and I think Pickens and company would pony up.

2. I don't think that really matters honestly. All that really matters is whether or not fans buy tickets and watch on TV.

3. Someone has to come in at 16. Theoretically it could be Kansas, but I think people would be much more interested in an OSU game than a KU match-up. KU football has always sucked, not a better option from that standpoint. WVU could be an option, but I don't think that would really be any different than OSU as far as anticipation would go.

4. If all of the new money is coming from the OK market then I would agree with you, but that's really not how it works. If it was simply a matter of cable subs in OK or ratings in a state of only 4M people then even OU probably wouldn't pay for themselves. The quality of content draws casual fans from across the country. From the streaming angle, each addition brings a unique audience so it's a matter of whether or not that audience is large enough. I wouldn't characterize OSU's fan base as small although it's obviously not as large and dispersed as that of OU. But like I said, someone has to be 16 and the only other school potentially out there that wouldn't be a step down from OU's worth is Texas.

And then there's the political angle. If taking OSU is necessary to get OU then it's really a move we have to make.
08-27-2017 07:42 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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RE: Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
JR beat me to some of that.
08-27-2017 07:44 PM
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XLance Offline
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RE: Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
You had better hope 15 is the number.
Kansas to the B1G.
Oklahoma to the SEC
Texas, TCU, and Texas Tech to the PAC
Notre Dame to the ACC

Everybody else heads to the American.
08-27-2017 08:48 PM
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RE: Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
(08-27-2017 08:48 PM)XLance Wrote:  You had better hope 15 is the number.
Kansas to the B1G.
Oklahoma to the SEC
Texas, TCU, and Texas Tech to the PAC
Notre Dame to the ACC

Everybody else heads to the American.

I don't think 15 is workable.

With odd numbers, at least one team has to be off every week. Sure, it's mathematically possible, but it's an awful lot of content being left on the table. Scheduling so many off weeks will also limit the options schools have for non-conference games. In other words, there's less flexibility when you can play a conference game and who has to be played at that time.

16 teams and 9 games is so much easier.
08-28-2017 01:18 AM
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XLance Offline
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RE: Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
(08-28-2017 01:18 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-27-2017 08:48 PM)XLance Wrote:  You had better hope 15 is the number.
Kansas to the B1G.
Oklahoma to the SEC
Texas, TCU, and Texas Tech to the PAC
Notre Dame to the ACC

Everybody else heads to the American.

I don't think 15 is workable.

With odd numbers, at least one team has to be off every week. Sure, it's mathematically possible, but it's an awful lot of content being left on the table. Scheduling so many off weeks will also limit the options schools have for non-conference games. In other words, there's less flexibility when you can play a conference game and who has to be played at that time.

16 teams and 9 games is so much easier.

15 is very workable with 5 team pods and 9 conference games. You could play every team in your conference home and away every two years.
08-28-2017 07:25 AM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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RE: Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
(08-27-2017 08:48 PM)XLance Wrote:  You had better hope 15 is the number.
Kansas to the B1G.
Oklahoma to the SEC
Texas, TCU, and Texas Tech to the PAC
Notre Dame to the ACC

Everybody else heads to the American.

It seems to me (and I could be wrong), that the general consensus is that texas will wind up either in the SEC or the ACC? If that's the case, PAC might take Tech, TCU and Houston in a 15 team scenario.
08-28-2017 11:36 AM
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RE: Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
(08-28-2017 07:25 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 01:18 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-27-2017 08:48 PM)XLance Wrote:  You had better hope 15 is the number.
Kansas to the B1G.
Oklahoma to the SEC
Texas, TCU, and Texas Tech to the PAC
Notre Dame to the ACC

Everybody else heads to the American.

I don't think 15 is workable.

With odd numbers, at least one team has to be off every week. Sure, it's mathematically possible, but it's an awful lot of content being left on the table. Scheduling so many off weeks will also limit the options schools have for non-conference games. In other words, there's less flexibility when you can play a conference game and who has to be played at that time.

16 teams and 9 games is so much easier.

15 is very workable with 5 team pods and 9 conference games. You could play every team in your conference home and away every two years.

I understand. The problem is when you schedule those games. You have to fit those 9 games and 3 more non-conference games into a 13 week window. The 14th week is for the CCG.

At least one team has to be off every week which will create some interesting problems as far as when you play those non-conference games and who's available on the calendar to play.

Ultimately it would limit schedule flexibility so any extra cash saved by not splitting the pie a 16th way is probably not worth the hassle in my opinion.
08-28-2017 12:03 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
(08-28-2017 11:36 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(08-27-2017 08:48 PM)XLance Wrote:  You had better hope 15 is the number.
Kansas to the B1G.
Oklahoma to the SEC
Texas, TCU, and Texas Tech to the PAC
Notre Dame to the ACC

Everybody else heads to the American.

It seems to me (and I could be wrong), that the general consensus is that texas will wind up either in the SEC or the ACC? If that's the case, PAC might take Tech, TCU and Houston in a 15 team scenario.

That is possible. But, I'm still not sure the moves will be to 15. It would be the most efficient number with which to expand, but it is also probably the stickiest. There are too many ties that would have to be severed.
08-28-2017 12:28 PM
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XLance Offline
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RE: Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
(08-28-2017 12:03 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 07:25 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 01:18 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-27-2017 08:48 PM)XLance Wrote:  You had better hope 15 is the number.
Kansas to the B1G.
Oklahoma to the SEC
Texas, TCU, and Texas Tech to the PAC
Notre Dame to the ACC

Everybody else heads to the American.

I don't think 15 is workable.

With odd numbers, at least one team has to be off every week. Sure, it's mathematically possible, but it's an awful lot of content being left on the table. Scheduling so many off weeks will also limit the options schools have for non-conference games. In other words, there's less flexibility when you can play a conference game and who has to be played at that time.

16 teams and 9 games is so much easier.

15 is very workable with 5 team pods and 9 conference games. You could play every team in your conference home and away every two years.

I understand. The problem is when you schedule those games. You have to fit those 9 games and 3 more non-conference games into a 13 week window. The 14th week is for the CCG.

At least one team has to be off every week which will create some interesting problems as far as when you play those non-conference games and who's available on the calendar to play.

Ultimately it would limit schedule flexibility so any extra cash saved by not splitting the pie a 16th way is probably not worth the hassle in my opinion.

It might make a difference to ESPN (like a $50M difference).
Since the cost of adding a team has gotten so expensive and the Big 12 isn't loaded with teams that can truly pay their own way (with the exception if Texas and possibly Oklahoma), I think you are now more likely to see a move to 15 rather than 16.
08-28-2017 12:28 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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RE: Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
(08-28-2017 12:28 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 12:03 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 07:25 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 01:18 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-27-2017 08:48 PM)XLance Wrote:  You had better hope 15 is the number.
Kansas to the B1G.
Oklahoma to the SEC
Texas, TCU, and Texas Tech to the PAC
Notre Dame to the ACC

Everybody else heads to the American.

I don't think 15 is workable.

With odd numbers, at least one team has to be off every week. Sure, it's mathematically possible, but it's an awful lot of content being left on the table. Scheduling so many off weeks will also limit the options schools have for non-conference games. In other words, there's less flexibility when you can play a conference game and who has to be played at that time.

16 teams and 9 games is so much easier.

15 is very workable with 5 team pods and 9 conference games. You could play every team in your conference home and away every two years.

I understand. The problem is when you schedule those games. You have to fit those 9 games and 3 more non-conference games into a 13 week window. The 14th week is for the CCG.

At least one team has to be off every week which will create some interesting problems as far as when you play those non-conference games and who's available on the calendar to play.

Ultimately it would limit schedule flexibility so any extra cash saved by not splitting the pie a 16th way is probably not worth the hassle in my opinion.

It might make a difference to ESPN (like a $50M difference).
Since the cost of adding a team has gotten so expensive and the Big 12 isn't loaded with teams that can truly pay their own way (with the exception if Texas and possibly Oklahoma), I think you are now more likely to see a move to 15 rather than 16.

They'll save money on the back end by not having to pay the remnants of the Big 12 nearly as much as they are paying now so it wouldn't quite be a $50M difference.

If all the little brothers are excluded then I think it's entirely possible if not probable that OU and UT don't move at all and the networks end up signing a new contract with the Big 12. It won't be as rich a contract, but the content value wouldn't be maximized. That and we won't end up with a P4 that guarantees a champs only playoff which in turn adds value to the regular season.

All in all, the money saved by not making that 16th addition would either be miniscule or non-existent given the earning power of a new P4 format.
08-28-2017 03:51 PM
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RE: Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
I would be fine with either OSU or WVU to round out the OU addition.
08-28-2017 09:33 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Realignment Conpsiracy Theory: OK State
(08-28-2017 09:33 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  I would be fine with either OSU or WVU to round out the OU addition.

Me too, and would actually prefer them to Kansas.
08-28-2017 09:48 PM
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