(08-19-2017 02:18 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-19-2017 01:36 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  also according to the Big 12 contract for conference membership the exit fees could be as high as the PRIOR two years worth of distributions

at the end of the GOR the Big 12 will be distributing somewhere around $45 or $46 million per team

past court cases have generally allowed the conference to keep the prior years distributions for each leaving member (about $46 million for the Big 12 at that time)

so based on that if two teams left the others would have $92 million to split up and if three left they would have $138 million to split up

and if it was upheld for two years worth of distributions it could be as high as $184 to $276

and again Maryland paid $31.5 to leave the ACC when they were a party to a contract that had (I believe) a $25 million exit fee at the time thought it could have been the $50 million one.....Maryland was not a party to the GOR and Maryland paid well over 1 years worth of distributions to leave the ACC because they were not paying close to $31.5 million at that time and I do not think they have paid out that amount per year per member even in the most recent year

so there is a long precedent of these contracts being upheld

even if the Big 12 members were looking at something similar to Maryland that is still $63 to $94.5 million for two or three teams leaving the Big 12

and that is millions of reasons for the remaining members to stay together considering even at the amount Maryland paid the ACC the members of the Big 12 would be splitting $63/8 = $7.875 or $94.5/7 = $13.5

and I think the AAC is the last conference that would have fans of member teams that can try and say that contracts with exit fees are irrelevant or easily broken.......because several members of the ACC are collecting some pretty big dollars off of just those very contracts (but then again we have this thread...)

I have to agree. The remaining Big12 members would have a strong motivation to rebuild due to exit fees and left behind NCAA credits. Using pieces from the MW and AAC, they could build a very attractive conference with reasonable geography that, while not power conference, would be clearly different from the other non-power conferences. No invited AAC or MW would decline an invite from the B12 leftovers. Something like this might even be able to land a decent bowl or two (at least by G5 standards).

I don't think they will grab anything out west aside of BYU. Ea$t is where the money is. I could see Memphis, Cincy, Tulane (yes Tulane, you can't underestimate New Orleans as a factor and their top notch academics), the Florida twins and possibly even Temple depending on how many leave.

(08-19-2017 02:48 PM)8BitPirate Wrote:  

(08-19-2017 02:18 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-19-2017 01:36 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  also according to the Big 12 contract for conference membership the exit fees could be as high as the PRIOR two years worth of distributions

at the end of the GOR the Big 12 will be distributing somewhere around $45 or $46 million per team

past court cases have generally allowed the conference to keep the prior years distributions for each leaving member (about $46 million for the Big 12 at that time)

so based on that if two teams left the others would have $92 million to split up and if three left they would have $138 million to split up

and if it was upheld for two years worth of distributions it could be as high as $184 to $276

and again Maryland paid $31.5 to leave the ACC when they were a party to a contract that had (I believe) a $25 million exit fee at the time thought it could have been the $50 million one.....Maryland was not a party to the GOR and Maryland paid well over 1 years worth of distributions to leave the ACC because they were not paying close to $31.5 million at that time and I do not think they have paid out that amount per year per member even in the most recent year

so there is a long precedent of these contracts being upheld

even if the Big 12 members were looking at something similar to Maryland that is still $63 to $94.5 million for two or three teams leaving the Big 12

and that is millions of reasons for the remaining members to stay together considering even at the amount Maryland paid the ACC the members of the Big 12 would be splitting $63/8 = $7.875 or $94.5/7 = $13.5

and I think the AAC is the last conference that would have fans of member teams that can try and say that contracts with exit fees are irrelevant or easily broken.......because several members of the ACC are collecting some pretty big dollars off of just those very contracts (but then again we have this thread...)

I have to agree. The remaining Big12 members would have a strong motivation to rebuild due to exit fees and left behind NCAA credits. Using pieces from the MW and AAC, they could build a very attractive conference with reasonable geography that, while not power conference, would be clearly different from the other non-power conferences. No invited AAC or MW would decline an invite from the B12 leftovers. Something like this might even be able to land a decent bowl or two (at least by G5 standards).

I don't think they will grab anything out west aside of BYU. Ea$t is where the money is. I could see Memphis, Cincy, Tulane (yes Tulane, you can't underestimate New Orleans as a factor and their top notch academics), the Florida twins and possibly even Temple depending on how many leave.

BYU, Boise, AF, NM, or Colorado St would all be interesting western options that maintain somewhat reasonable geography. To the east---there are a ton of choices. If you build a bridge to W Virginia using Cinci and/or Memphis--you wouldnt need to add much more--maybe Houston and BYU? I guess it depends on how much of the Big12 is left.

(08-18-2017 12:32 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  Something I've been mulling over...

We all know something is going to happen in 2023, but what if it's limited to just Texas going independent?

Without Texas as the lynchpin, I don't think we see 2 or 4 B12 schools going to the PAC-12

There's no indication that any conference is willing to go to 16, so that makes Kansas unlikely to the B1G tbh, especially considering that adding Kansas flies in the face of the B1G's recent expansion patterns (ala tv markets in Maryland / DC and New York).

It may very well be that Texas goes independent, resumes scheduling with historic rivals in Nebraska, Oklahoma, aTm, et al. leaving the B12 at 9.

The question at that point, is do they stay at 9 with their "One True Champion" model, do they expand by 3 (in which case I think the easy solution is Cinci, UCF, USF in that order) or do they go to 14 with 2 more adds? Who are those other 2 teams?

How many time have people said Texas may go indy.... yet never answered the question......what happens to their non-football teams??

(08-19-2017 04:50 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(08-18-2017 12:32 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  Something I've been mulling over...

We all know something is going to happen in 2023, but what if it's limited to just Texas going independent?

Without Texas as the lynchpin, I don't think we see 2 or 4 B12 schools going to the PAC-12

There's no indication that any conference is willing to go to 16, so that makes Kansas unlikely to the B1G tbh, especially considering that adding Kansas flies in the face of the B1G's recent expansion patterns (ala tv markets in Maryland / DC and New York).

It may very well be that Texas goes independent, resumes scheduling with historic rivals in Nebraska, Oklahoma, aTm, et al. leaving the B12 at 9.

The question at that point, is do they stay at 9 with their "One True Champion" model, do they expand by 3 (in which case I think the easy solution is Cinci, UCF, USF in that order) or do they go to 14 with 2 more adds? Who are those other 2 teams?

How many time have people said Texas may go indy.... yet never answered the question......what happens to their non-football teams??

Texas is arguably more valuable than ND.

If ND can pull off a deal like that, Texas can too.

(08-19-2017 04:57 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  

(08-19-2017 04:50 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(08-18-2017 12:32 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  Something I've been mulling over...

We all know something is going to happen in 2023, but what if it's limited to just Texas going independent?

Without Texas as the lynchpin, I don't think we see 2 or 4 B12 schools going to the PAC-12

There's no indication that any conference is willing to go to 16, so that makes Kansas unlikely to the B1G tbh, especially considering that adding Kansas flies in the face of the B1G's recent expansion patterns (ala tv markets in Maryland / DC and New York).

It may very well be that Texas goes independent, resumes scheduling with historic rivals in Nebraska, Oklahoma, aTm, et al. leaving the B12 at 9.

The question at that point, is do they stay at 9 with their "One True Champion" model, do they expand by 3 (in which case I think the easy solution is Cinci, UCF, USF in that order) or do they go to 14 with 2 more adds? Who are those other 2 teams?

How many time have people said Texas may go indy.... yet never answered the question......what happens to their non-football teams??

Texas is arguably more valuable than ND.

If ND can pull off a deal like that, Texas can too.

Disagree

ND is popular nationwide due to tradition and probably more importantly most catholics pull for them and they are everywhere. Texas may have tradition but people in Boston or Seattle or Cincinnati etc couldnt give two craps about them. See the epic failure which is the Longhorn network.

There won't be a B12 after it expires.

Texas, TCU, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State to Pac-12
Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas Tech to ACC (Norte Dame becomes full member)
Iowa State and WVU to B1G
Clemson and FSU to SEC
Baylor, BYU, Air Force, and ARMY/VCU to AAC


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(08-19-2017 06:32 PM)PurpleReigns Wrote:  There won't be a B12 after it expires.

Texas, TCU, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State to Pac-12
Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas Tech to ACC (Norte Dame becomes full member)
Iowa State and WVU to B1G
Clemson and FSU to SEC
Baylor, BYU, Air Force, and ARMY/VCU to AAC


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Haven't followed every post to this thread & there may be some credence to several opinions. One question that may have already been asked & answered, how many schools have to agree for the B12 to be dissolved with no further obligation to the dissolved B12? Surely if the majority have other potential homes, there won't be any GOR or NCAA credits for the leaving members to lose. The required number (as controlled by the conference bylaws) simply have to agree to dissolve the conference & everyone keeps their share & simply leaves free of any obligations toward the other former members.

(08-19-2017 06:32 PM)PurpleReigns Wrote:  There won't be a B12 after it expires.

Texas, TCU, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State to Pac-12
Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas Tech to ACC (Norte Dame becomes full member)
Iowa State and WVU to B1G
Clemson and FSU to SEC
Baylor, BYU, Air Force, and ARMY/VCU to AAC


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ISU to the big 10 won't happen...they already have Iowa and this isn't 1940. Markets/eyeballs are why the B1g expands now, see Rutgers

I can't see Kstate, Ttech to the ACC at all

KU will go big 10
TCU could go SEC, Clemson and FSU would for sure


I don't want baylor

(08-19-2017 06:32 PM)PurpleReigns Wrote:  There won't be a B12 after it expires.

Texas, TCU, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State to Pac-12
Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas Tech to ACC (Norte Dame becomes full member)
Iowa State and WVU to B1G
Clemson and FSU to SEC
Baylor, BYU, Air Force, and ARMY/VCU to AAC


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B1G would NEVER take WV due to their academics.

(08-19-2017 07:00 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(08-19-2017 06:32 PM)PurpleReigns Wrote:  There won't be a B12 after it expires.

Texas, TCU, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State to Pac-12
Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas Tech to ACC (Norte Dame becomes full member)
Iowa State and WVU to B1G
Clemson and FSU to SEC
Baylor, BYU, Air Force, and ARMY/VCU to AAC


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Haven't followed every post to this thread & there may be some credence to several opinions. One question that may have already been asked & answered, how many schools have to agree for the B12 to be dissolved with no further obligation to the dissolved B12? Surely if the majority have other potential homes, there won't be any GOR or NCAA credits for the leaving members to lose. The required number (as controlled by the conference bylaws) simply have to agree to dissolve the conference & everyone keeps their share & simply leaves free of any obligations toward the other former members.

75%

so in a 10 team conference that means 8 need to

which means that 8 of 10 would need to be finding places they were happy with

and the bylaws say that "disinterested" members get a vote which some believe to mean that members that are looking to leave and to benefit from that would not be voting....I am not sure that is the case

but it is doubtful that 8 of the 10 members would find comparable homes and vote to dissolve

not to mention that the bylaws state that any team that makes contact or that is contacted about leaving the conference has 12 days to notify the conference AND to issue a letter to the parties involved indicating they are not interested in leaving or they will be in violation of the conference contract for membership

so it is highly doubtful that 8 of the 10 members would be able to find a comparable home in less than 12 days and then all 8 inform the conference of their intentions to leave and then take a vote to do so all in 12 days or less

so if you have 8 of 10 violating that rule you can be sure the one or two left over will be looking to go to court to get compensation for the fact that 8 or more members ignored their contractual obligations of notification of contact/intent to leave the conference and follow the procedures for that

so it is not as simple as 8 or more members (but less than 10) all go out and start working deals while leaving one or two in the dark for over 12 days and then once they find a new home and they all let each other know they vote to dissolve the conference with no repercussions

I am sure some will pretend that it could get done in "super top secret" but other conferences, media partners and most likely several members of the Big 12 are not going to expose themselves to the collusion issues and the potential large liability from that collusion

(08-19-2017 06:32 PM)PurpleReigns Wrote:  There won't be a B12 after it expires.

Texas, TCU, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State to Pac-12
Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas Tech to ACC (Norte Dame becomes full member)
Iowa State and WVU to B1G
Clemson and FSU to SEC
Baylor, BYU, Air Force, and ARMY/VCU to AAC


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

So- The ACC takes small population Kansas schools and the Texas school in a small population area of Texas?

The Big Ten takes Iowa State and West Virginia?

This will not happen.

Texas is the most powerful athletic department in the nation. The resources available to the school are as high as needed.

It still amazes me that Texas A&M had more revenue last year and Texas is #2.

Let's say the B12 does lose some people and lets assume its Texas, OU/OSU, and KU.

They are still in a position to poach the AAC, not the other way around. It will be Big East implosion, taking CUSA part II. CUSA didn't poach the left over Big East teams.

The B12 name, even without Texas, OU, OSU, and KU is still more powerful than the AAC. I see the B12 taking people from the AAC + BYU, then going to ESPN/Fox and probably having to renegotiate a contract. That being said, the B12 will pick four teams that they feel give them the best opportunity with TV money.

I would imagine that BYU at this point see's this as their last chance and jumps. So we can assume BYU is #1 choice.

That means there will be three taken from the AAC.

They will come from this group: UC, UH, Tulane, USF, UCF.

One could also assume Boise and Col St would get an interview as well.


Point is, the B12 loses four and they will stay the B12. The AAC, BYU, and MWC teams will all feed into the B12.

Todgerodge thinks the Houston cougars will go to the new b12 as the flagship sports program even with Texas and oklahoma still there

(08-18-2017 07:51 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(08-18-2017 04:54 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  

(08-18-2017 08:41 AM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(08-18-2017 08:17 AM)Underdog Wrote:  

(08-17-2017 02:04 PM)jaredf29 Wrote:  Only under these assertions: the new B12 keeps its power status, keeps its bowl access, and keeps a least a larger payout than the current aac. If these aren't present, you're looking at more travel expenses to terrible places that aren't easy to get to and very little to gain.

Good points; however, I will counter with the following with emphasis on UCF:

Think about the precarious circumstances that surrounded this conference when UCF agreed to join. It was losing its AQ status, losing members, and there was great uncertainty about the TV $$. This conference subsequently lost the C7 and the Big East name. Moreover, our commissioner said during a radio interview that he didn’t think the conference would make it at one point. Why did UCF still join despite the odds stacked against this conference surviving? One important reason is because the president and AD for UCF knew that it was better to be in a conference with UC, UCONN, USF, Temple, Houston, Memphis, and SMU than possibly being left behind in CUSA. They also knew that UC, UCONN, and USF had leverage over CUSA (because of the perceived FBS conference hierarchy) and could invite another school if UCF had turned down an invite. The president and AD for UCF made the right decision because look at what CUSA is worth now….

When the B12 implodes, it will have the same leverage over this conference even if it drops in status, TV $$$, and bowl affiliations. Do you really think UC, UCONN, USF, and Temple would stay here if the B12 leftovers are willing to reunite them with WV? Furthermore, do think Houston, SMU, Memphis, etc… would say no to a rebuilding B12 and risk having to rebuild the American with depreciated CUSA parts? That’s the leverage the B12 leftovers have over this conference: "Join us even if it’s a literal move or risk rebuilding the American with CUSA parts and lowering your value." In addition to the aforementioned, the B12 will likely invite four schools from this conference so that they arrive the last two years before its TV contract and GOR expires. Consequently, this conference would already have 4 former members in the B12 before its GOR expires—which greatly increases the odds of additional American schools joining them….

Not to mention Houston would take the big 12 over the American any day simply for the geography of the conference.

SMH

So you prefer a terrible geographical conference with teams that most houston fans don't get excited about playing? Interesting coming from a "houston" fan.

Hate to tell you this but ucf accepted way before Memphis and Houston and before people were jumping ship. Espn wanted to invite us before the contract was turned down but usf said no. We were always in the cards. Any cache usf had went away when we were invited. It's an even playing field going forward. We were passed over the first time because the sun dome was a better bball venue in a conference that was founded on bball first. That venue by the way was built by the state. Ours was largely self funded.

(08-19-2017 04:57 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  

(08-19-2017 04:50 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(08-18-2017 12:32 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  Something I've been mulling over...

We all know something is going to happen in 2023, but what if it's limited to just Texas going independent?

Without Texas as the lynchpin, I don't think we see 2 or 4 B12 schools going to the PAC-12

There's no indication that any conference is willing to go to 16, so that makes Kansas unlikely to the B1G tbh, especially considering that adding Kansas flies in the face of the B1G's recent expansion patterns (ala tv markets in Maryland / DC and New York).

It may very well be that Texas goes independent, resumes scheduling with historic rivals in Nebraska, Oklahoma, aTm, et al. leaving the B12 at 9.

The question at that point, is do they stay at 9 with their "One True Champion" model, do they expand by 3 (in which case I think the easy solution is Cinci, UCF, USF in that order) or do they go to 14 with 2 more adds? Who are those other 2 teams?

How many time have people said Texas may go indy.... yet never answered the question......what happens to their non-football teams??

Texas is arguably more valuable than ND.

If ND can pull off a deal like that, Texas can too.

Sure Texas can pull it off, but why would they want to? Answer: they don't.

You still have not answered the question....Where would they place their non-football teams?

I'll answer. I think they go to Pac or stay Big12 plus a couple. If they go indy in football, they could just about choose any conference for their very good non-football teams. Heck, AAC would take them in a minute, which I would love.

(08-20-2017 04:40 PM)AusTxPony Wrote:  I'll answer. I think they go to Pac or stay Big12 plus a couple. If they go indy in football, they could just about choose any conference for their very good non-football teams. Heck, AAC would take them in a minute, which I would love.

That is not the point. It is NOT who would take their teams. Do you really think Texas is going to place their basketball, baseball, tennis, golf etc. teams on an island with teams in the PAC or lower them to the AAC. That is not going to happen. Texas does not have to settle.

Texas Tech is the Wake Forest of the Big12. No one is going to take them. They would be CUSA bound.

If the PAC is smart they'll offer Texas and 1-3 other Texas teams or maybe OU (the PAC did before). But Texas doesn't need OU, they will play them OOC. Will Texas go, the fans I know want it and Texas has the money to travel. Fans see the weakness of the Big 12. And as I said they will choose which conference they want if football is indy, but I think Indy is 3rd choice though.