1% chance
B-12 a lock 100%
B-10 at 33%
SEC at 22%
Pac12 at 66%, should have been 5 out of 6
ACC at 31%

(08-08-2017 02:42 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  1% chance
B-12 a lock 100%
B-10 at 33%
SEC at 22%
Pac12 at 66%, should have been 5 out of 6

If you're responding to my last post, I'm referring to the chance of a rematch in consecutive games. It's only happened once in 105 CCGs.

Isn't the consecutive-game rematch the one people are most concerned about, for whatever reason?

that's fine, i don't like any rematches
CFB was not built that way

(08-08-2017 02:57 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  that's fine, i don't like any rematches
CFB was not built that way

OK, suppose that Temple finishes at the top of the AAC East with a 7-1 conference record and an 11-1 overall record. Temple's one loss was at home in the last game of the regular season to Houston, who finishes at the top of the AAC West with a 5-3 conference record and an 8-4 overall record. The conference championship game would be Temple vs. Houston, but they've already played. Should the second place team in the AAC East instead play Houston for the championship?

Last year's C-USA Championship was a rematch. La Tech vs. WKU

LA Tech won in October 52-49
WKU won in December 58-44

No Temple should play #2 in west, Temple still has #1 seed
listen, I don't like these kids playing needless games
there getting hurt & not paid, nothing irks me more than OT
even tough i Like the playoffs, i prefer no semi-finals

(08-08-2017 03:54 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  No Temple should play #2 in west, Temple still has #1 seed
listen, I don't like these kids playing needless games
there getting hurt & not paid, nothing irks me more than OT
even tough i Like the playoffs, i prefer no semi-finals

Fair enough. Although if the idea is that the regular season matchup already determined the winner, then I still think Houston would play the #2 team in the East.

And I don't see anything wrong with ties, at least in the regular season.

(08-08-2017 12:11 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  How about in just the last three seasons 14,15,16? Obviously Fresno at Boise and SDSU at Wyoming are two ... but how many total rematches have there been?

I just don't think it's that common of an occurrence.

See the post above yours...

Thanks, didn't see the link originally.

So just 2016 CUSA, 2014 & 2016 MWC, and 2014 & 2015 PAC. With a total of 3 CCG's for the PAC, Big Ten, ACC, SEC, MWC, CUSA, and MAC, and 2 CCG's for the AAC = 23 CCG's total. So 5 out of 23 = 21.7% in the last three seasons. That's much higher than I would've thought. But no rematches in the Big Ten, SEC, or ACC.

When you think about it, every PAC team plays 9 out of 11 other teams in the conference, every year. Compare that to SEC, where every team plays 8 out of 13 other teams in the conference, every year.

(08-09-2017 03:55 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Thanks, didn't see the link originally.

So just 2016 CUSA, 2014 & 2016 MWC, and 2014 & 2015 PAC.

When you think about it, every PAC team plays 9 out of 11 other teams in the conference, every year. Compare that to SEC, where every team plays 8 out of 13 other teams in the conference, every year.

Yes, conference schedule and size are the major determinants of rematch frequency.

(08-07-2017 09:28 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(08-07-2017 09:21 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  1. Boring to see the same game 2 weeks in a row.
2. Screams mediocrity if they split (fair or not).

1. Does it actually drop TV ratings or attendance? If it's a rivalry game, I would think fans of the teams would be ecstatic over having a second game, one with even higher stakes. Plus this sort of thing can happen easily in other sports leagues, even the NFL, and no one says boo about that.

2. Very subjective. The outcome of many games between teams with similar talent levels is due in large part to chance. And upsets can happen between teams with widely disparate talent levels. A single game (or even two) is not a conclusive measure of how good a team is vs. the other or in general.

In other words, the ccg can have a fluky result.

(08-09-2017 03:56 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Yes, conference schedule and size are the major determinants of rematch frequency.

Yes. But it a very sharp cliff, even between 12 and 14!

Look at the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC since having 14 members.
Then look at the PAC and MWC, with 12 members, in the same timeframe!

(08-09-2017 03:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-07-2017 09:28 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(08-07-2017 09:21 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  1. Boring to see the same game 2 weeks in a row.
2. Screams mediocrity if they split (fair or not).

1. Does it actually drop TV ratings or attendance? If it's a rivalry game, I would think fans of the teams would be ecstatic over having a second game, one with even higher stakes. Plus this sort of thing can happen easily in other sports leagues, even the NFL, and no one says boo about that.

2. Very subjective. The outcome of many games between teams with similar talent levels is due in large part to chance. And upsets can happen between teams with widely disparate talent levels. A single game (or even two) is not a conclusive measure of how good a team is vs. the other or in general.

In other words, the ccg can have a fluky result.

Right. And as such, retroactively treating the regular season match as if it were the conference semifinal is silly. Just play the game again as the conference final. Each team won their division, so they have the right to play again for the championship.

The one caveat to that is if it was just played the week before. As you investigated, that mostly doesn't happen.

But we actually could have that exact scenario this year, in the Big 12: Bedlem, then the CCG.

(08-09-2017 03:55 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Thanks, didn't see the link originally.

So just 2016 CUSA, 2014 & 2016 MWC, and 2014 & 2015 PAC. With a total of 3 CCG's for the PAC, Big Ten, ACC, SEC, MWC, CUSA, and MAC, and 2 CCG's for the AAC = 23 CCG's total. So 5 out of 23 = 21.7% in the last three seasons. That's much higher than I would've thought. But no rematches in the Big Ten, SEC, or ACC.

When you think about it, every PAC team plays 9 out of 11 other teams in the conference, every year. Compare that to SEC, where every team plays 8 out of 13 other teams in the conference, every year.

The total number of rematches has actually been spread out fairly consistently over time, at least since 1999. The greater number of CCGs in recent years is counterbalanced by the larger conferences. Although the sample size is still pretty small, so chance plays strongly.

1992: 0 / 1
1993: 0 / 1
1994: 0 / 1
1995: 0 / 1
1996: 0 / 3
1997: 0 / 4
1998: 0 / 4
1999: 3 / 3
2000: 3 / 3
2001: 2 / 3
2002: 1 / 3
2003: 2 / 3
2004: 2 / 3
2005: 2 / 5
2006: 1 / 5
2007: 3 / 5
2008: 1 / 5
2009: 1 / 5
2010: 1 / 5
2011: 2 / 6
2012: 3 / 6
2013: 1 / 7
2014: 2 / 7
2015: 1 / 8
2016: 2 / 8

(08-09-2017 04:12 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  The one caveat to that is if it was just played the week before. As you investigated, that mostly doesn't happen.

But we actually could have that exact scenario this year, in the Big 12: Bedlem, then the CCG.

Still, why would you need to do anything about it? It's a scheduled regular season game, not a postseason game. The Big 12 knew the CCG would necessarily be a rematch with a round-robin schedule. If the schools are so concerned about the chance of playing in two straight weeks, then don't schedule Bedlam as the last game of the regular season. Everyone can schedule OOC in the last game. Just silly though. I haven't seen a legitimate argument for why any kind of rematch is a bad thing.

There's one last point to it, which might explain why the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC have escaped the last three seasons: imbalanced divisions.

Because, ALL conf games count for determining the division winner, not just division games. So in comes Ohio St, Penn St, or Alabama, Auburn, or FL St, Clemson. They beat whomever they play on the other division. That makes the rematch with those teams less likely, because those loses will count against those teams winning the division.

PAC and MWC on the other hand, more balanced divisions.

I could be wrong but the PAC 12 has had a rematch every year except 1. They did have a rematch of 2 teams playing 2 weeks in a row. I think it was Stanford vs UCLA?

(08-09-2017 04:12 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  The one caveat to that is if it was just played the week before. As you investigated, that mostly doesn't happen.

But we actually could have that exact scenario this year, in the Big 12: Bedlem, then the CCG.

Bedlam is Nov 4th this season.

http://www.okstate.com/schedule.aspx?path=football

(08-11-2017 04:09 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  I could be wrong but the PAC 12 has had a rematch every year except 1. They did have a rematch of 2 teams playing 2 weeks in a row. I think it was Stanford vs UCLA?

The PAC has had six CCGs, four have been rematches, two have not, the first one in 2011 and the most recent one in 2016. Though the 2011 game would have been a rematch, but one of the division winners (USC) was ineligible to play the game because of NCAA punishment.