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How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
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DawgNBama Offline
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How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
I was looking at this post I copied from the AAC board


(07-19-2017 07:31 AM)Moody Magic Wrote:  The WSU thread about being great for the board got me thinking about what they add numbers wise. I'm sure this has been discussed before but I quickly ranked the metro areas by population for each AAC school. I'm not saying each school delivers their market but it is their base. Interesting to note the two schools with loudest/most annoying/vocal fans come from the two smallest markets.....

AAC rank - metro area (metro pop, US metro rank)

1. SMU - DFW (7,200,000 4th)
2. UH - Houston (6,800,000 5th)
3. Temple - Philly (6,100,000 7th)
4. USF - Tampa (3,000,000 18th)
5. Navy - Baltimore/Annapolis (2,700,000 21st)
6. UCF - Orlando (2,500,000 23rd)
7. Cincy - Cincinnati (2,200,000 28th)
8. Memphis - Memphis (1,300,000 42nd)
9. Tulane - New Orleans (1,300,000 46th)
10. UConn - Hartford (1,200,000 47th)
11. Tulsa - Tulsa (1,000,000 55th)
12. WSU - Wichita (600,000 87th)
13. ECU - Greenville, NC (200,000 236th)

Also, I included Annapolis in the Baltimore metro.

, and it got me thinking, "how does one accurately determine a college team's market?" With some teams, it's kinda obvious like UCLA's market is LA and Miami, Fl's market is Miami, etc. But how do you determine USC's market? It stands for the University of Southern California, so just how many markets can it claim? And Auburn has fans both in the states of Alabama and Georgia. What markets can they claim? See what I mean? So, how does one determine the market for each team??
07-29-2017 12:17 AM
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nzmorange Offline
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Post: #2
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
You don't. It's meaningless.

You determine the size of their fan base, the size of the population that watches them in hopes that they lose, and the size of th epopulation that's willing to watch them due to their quality of play (i.e. people that just want a good game).
07-29-2017 12:31 AM
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DawgNBama Offline
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RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-29-2017 12:31 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  You don't. It's meaningless.

You determine the size of their fan base, the size of the population that watches them in hopes that they lose, and the size of th epopulation that's willing to watch them due to their quality of play (i.e. people that just want a good game).

How do you accurately determine those three things? Some have a fan base in just one city, some have a fan base in an entire state, some have a fan base in a region, etc.
07-29-2017 12:46 AM
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Post: #4
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
Markets are mostly meaningless.

ESPN, FS1 don't distribute to markets, they distribute nationally

RSNs like Fox South and Altitude distribute regionally.

Outside of OTA television, markets just don't mean anything.
07-29-2017 01:22 AM
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nzmorange Offline
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Post: #5
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-29-2017 12:46 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 12:31 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  You don't. It's meaningless.

You determine the size of their fan base, the size of the population that watches them in hopes that they lose, and the size of th epopulation that's willing to watch them due to their quality of play (i.e. people that just want a good game).

How do you accurately determine those three things? Some have a fan base in just one city, some have a fan base in an entire state, some have a fan base in a region, etc.
You're spending way too much time/effort focusing on arbitrary geographic distinctions that are largely meaningless.

My best guess at determining a school's fan base is to use a combination of:
*Attendance
*Merch sales
*Ratings (factoring in time, network, record, and opponent)
07-29-2017 01:44 AM
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DawgNBama Offline
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RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
What's a good website for looking at merchandise sales? Forbes?
I'm not baiting, I'm not spamming, not calling anybody out, etc. I really want to know. I always feel like I'm at a loss in these market threads because I don't really know how to determine market, fan base size, etc., and I really want to because I want to make informed posts to reply to posts on markets.
(This post was last modified: 07-29-2017 02:47 AM by DawgNBama.)
07-29-2017 02:02 AM
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RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-29-2017 01:44 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 12:46 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 12:31 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  You don't. It's meaningless.

You determine the size of their fan base, the size of the population that watches them in hopes that they lose, and the size of th epopulation that's willing to watch them due to their quality of play (i.e. people that just want a good game).

How do you accurately determine those three things? Some have a fan base in just one city, some have a fan base in an entire state, some have a fan base in a region, etc.
You're spending way too much time/effort focusing on arbitrary geographic distinctions that are largely meaningless.

My best guess at determining a school's fan base is to use a combination of:
*Attendance
*Merch sales
*Ratings (factoring in time, network, record, and opponent)

This. ECUs market may be small however we do well in the three items above. The weird thing is ECU is only an hour or so from Raleigh where most ECU fans live. Yet we can't count that as our TVmarket.
07-29-2017 02:47 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #8
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
It depends on what you are trying to sell, and to whom. If you are on the outside of the P5 looking in, you will want to claim the broadest possible market reach, whether you can demonstrate that's real or not.

If you draw well on TV, you will tout that. If you sell a lot of tickets, you will point to that as evidence of the breadth of your "market". Same with merchandise.

At the end of the day, the people who are buying will apply their own subjective judgment. The sellers' arguments will carry little weight.
07-29-2017 07:57 AM
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Wolfman Offline
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RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
Market is an obsolete metric in terms of broadcasting. If Miami is at Oklahoma, the vast majority of the DFW fans will tune into that game over any SMU game. Conversely, if Miami were hosting Savannah State, few fans in Miami would tune in.

I'm sure the media moguls have some elaborate formula for determining what games they can get the most revenue from.
07-29-2017 09:05 AM
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DawgNBama Offline
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RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-29-2017 02:47 AM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 01:44 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 12:46 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 12:31 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  You don't. It's meaningless.

You determine the size of their fan base, the size of the population that watches them in hopes that they lose, and the size of th epopulation that's willing to watch them due to their quality of play (i.e. people that just want a good game).

How do you accurately determine those three things? Some have a fan base in just one city, some have a fan base in an entire state, some have a fan base in a region, etc.
You're spending way too much time/effort focusing on arbitrary geographic distinctions that are largely meaningless.

My best guess at determining a school's fan base is to use a combination of:
*Attendance
*Merch sales
*Ratings (factoring in time, network, record, and opponent)

This. ECUs market may be small however we do well in the three items above. The weird thing is ECU is only an hour or so from Raleigh where most ECU fans live. Yet we can't count that as our TVmarket.

Why can't you claim Raleigh as your tv market? You may not be able to claim it exclusively, IMO, but I would think you would be able claim it.
07-29-2017 09:48 AM
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Section 200 Offline
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RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
Markets work very well for the NFL, where folks in Pittsburgh watch the Steelers and folks in Chicago watch the Bears, and most large cities overwhelming support 1 local team. There are too many college teams to use market as an accurate metrics.
07-29-2017 10:38 AM
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RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
For the P5 programs the market is at least as big as the state.
For the non P5 its usually more local .
Small state flagships being similar to P5 but numbers wise close to upper non P5.

I think digital networks will end these debates. If NDSU draws an average as high as Memphis online they will be considered the same to advertisers.

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07-29-2017 10:56 AM
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Post: #13
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-29-2017 12:31 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  You don't. It's meaningless.

You determine the size of their fan base, the size of the population that watches them in hopes that they lose, and the size of th epopulation that's willing to watch them due to their quality of play (i.e. people that just want a good game).

It probably only matters for the regional games.

Quality of the teams is probably the driving metric, even in a lopsided game. Alabama vs its FCS opponent will draw better than USF - Stony Brook, even for part of the game.

Size of the market the school is located in is probably an opening point in negotiations because you have to start somewhere or you are looking at potential numbers. Rutgers/BC/Temple will all have more potential viewers than WVU because they are located in bigger markets. Whether those are realized viewers is a different question.

Alabama, Miami, etc. all have national draw so market size doesn't matter.
07-29-2017 12:07 PM
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RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-29-2017 02:47 AM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 01:44 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 12:46 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 12:31 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  You don't. It's meaningless.

You determine the size of their fan base, the size of the population that watches them in hopes that they lose, and the size of th epopulation that's willing to watch them due to their quality of play (i.e. people that just want a good game).

How do you accurately determine those three things? Some have a fan base in just one city, some have a fan base in an entire state, some have a fan base in a region, etc.
You're spending way too much time/effort focusing on arbitrary geographic distinctions that are largely meaningless.

My best guess at determining a school's fan base is to use a combination of:
*Attendance
*Merch sales
*Ratings (factoring in time, network, record, and opponent)

This. ECUs market may be small however we do well in the three items above. The weird thing is ECU is only an hour or so from Raleigh where most ECU fans live. Yet we can't count that as our TVmarket.

ECU's "market" starts at the mouth of the Chesapeake, then runs an arc toward Winston-Salem, then to Charlotte, then and arc back to Myrtle Beach SC. Football fans in that area will watch ECU and ECU can sell it's merchandise in that area. Many if not all UNC and NC State football fans, will watch ECU if the game is against another P-5.

ECU support and interest drops off west of I-77 and is replaced by interest and support of App State.

They can put 45K of their OWN fans in the seats at Ficklen. There is a reason that VT and SC play them and that's recruiting competition in the Tidewater and the Pee Dee basin of SC.
07-29-2017 12:18 PM
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RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
Navy has a national market. I did not serve in the Navy but my father did. That bonds me and my family to the Navy and I will watch Navy and pull for them to win against any team they play except NC State. I could not give a damn if the Air Force academy football team won another game.

I think in addition to the potential market around the school, you have to consider the "hook".

Notre Dame's hook is Catholics, and people love to hate on ND
Duke's hook is that people love to hate on Duke

I hate the New York Yankees. Would I rather watch Boston win or the Yankees lose?

USC and UCLA have the LA glamor hook. Navy, Army, and Air Force the military hook. Bama has the Deep South love it or hate it hook.

Then there are the little brother, little sister hooks.

Beyond the hook, it has to be about the quailty of the product and the size of the built in audience.

If you go 2-10 three years in a row, even the maggots will not watch you.
07-29-2017 12:28 PM
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Love and Honor Offline
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RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
There are two ways I look at a team's market: base and incremental support. Base is the number of fans you'd have if the team turned into cellar dwellers, had no star players or coaches, removed promotional and marketing activity, etc. and were basically left with die-hards, parents, the band, and people who show up just to get drunk. Incremental is what happens when you win and do all those things, draw abnormally good home opponents (e.g. P5 teams for the G5), get alumni and students who don't like sports a ton to show up because it's 'the event' to go to, and so on. Yet incremental isn't equal across schools due to size, history, and competition, someone like Rice couldn't fill their stadium even if they won ten games a year for example.

Usually when people say a team has a good market they're saying their base is high and they're taking advantage of their incremental potential. It's interesting since most schools that struggle with support had a 'golden age' at some point where they took advantage of both to some extent by winning a bunch and it resulted in a bit of a local following for a while. Take Miami, we averaged over 25K butts in the seats in 2003 and were 'the team' of the Miami Valley (far north Cincy suburbs through Dayton) outside of OSU's general pull of course. Fast forward over a decade later and we're basically at our base with only devoted alumni and Oxford townies showing up, though it looks like that's turning around.
07-29-2017 01:32 PM
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nzmorange Offline
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Post: #17
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-29-2017 12:07 PM)megadrone Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 12:31 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  You don't. It's meaningless.

You determine the size of their fan base, the size of the population that watches them in hopes that they lose, and the size of th epopulation that's willing to watch them due to their quality of play (i.e. people that just want a good game).

It probably only matters for the regional games.

Quality of the teams is probably the driving metric, even in a lopsided game. Alabama vs its FCS opponent will draw better than USF - Stony Brook, even for part of the game.

Size of the market the school is located in is probably an opening point in negotiations because you have to start somewhere or you are looking at potential numbers. Rutgers/BC/Temple will all have more potential viewers than WVU because they are located in bigger markets. Whether those are realized viewers is a different question.

Alabama, Miami, etc. all have national draw so market size doesn't matter.

It's not like almost all of these schools haven't been televised for decades.

Temple's value would be the same if they were located in Altoona. A large population of indifferent people who happen to live near a school doesn't add any value.
07-29-2017 02:10 PM
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malenko2 Offline
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RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-29-2017 02:10 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 12:07 PM)megadrone Wrote:  
(07-29-2017 12:31 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  You don't. It's meaningless.

You determine the size of their fan base, the size of the population that watches them in hopes that they lose, and the size of th epopulation that's willing to watch them due to their quality of play (i.e. people that just want a good game).

It probably only matters for the regional games.

Quality of the teams is probably the driving metric, even in a lopsided game. Alabama vs its FCS opponent will draw better than USF - Stony Brook, even for part of the game.

Size of the market the school is located in is probably an opening point in negotiations because you have to start somewhere or you are looking at potential numbers. Rutgers/BC/Temple will all have more potential viewers than WVU because they are located in bigger markets. Whether those are realized viewers is a different question.

Alabama, Miami, etc. all have national draw so market size doesn't matter.

It's not like almost all of these schools haven't been televised for decades.

Temple's value would be the same if they were located in Altoona. A large population of indifferent people who happen to live near a school doesn't add any value.

You are incorrect about Temple as usual. Just an FYI, we are no longer in the 90s/early 00s and the Temple you continually post about bears no resemblance to the Temple of today.

They havent been televised for decades and weren't during their time as a football only member in the Big East (and that is probably a good thing as we all know how they performed then).

They were on TV some of the time in the MAC and have only started to be televised regularly in football and basketball when they moved back to the Big East in 2012 and the current AAC.
(This post was last modified: 07-29-2017 02:40 PM by malenko2.)
07-29-2017 02:36 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #19
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-29-2017 12:17 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  I was looking at this post I copied from the AAC board


(07-19-2017 07:31 AM)Moody Magic Wrote:  The WSU thread about being great for the board got me thinking about what they add numbers wise. I'm sure this has been discussed before but I quickly ranked the metro areas by population for each AAC school. I'm not saying each school delivers their market but it is their base. Interesting to note the two schools with loudest/most annoying/vocal fans come from the two smallest markets.....

AAC rank - metro area (metro pop, US metro rank)

1. SMU - DFW (7,200,000 4th)
2. UH - Houston (6,800,000 5th)
3. Temple - Philly (6,100,000 7th)
4. USF - Tampa (3,000,000 18th)
5. Navy - Baltimore/Annapolis (2,700,000 21st)
6. UCF - Orlando (2,500,000 23rd)
7. Cincy - Cincinnati (2,200,000 28th)
8. Memphis - Memphis (1,300,000 42nd)
9. Tulane - New Orleans (1,300,000 46th)
10. UConn - Hartford (1,200,000 47th)
11. Tulsa - Tulsa (1,000,000 55th)
12. WSU - Wichita (600,000 87th)
13. ECU - Greenville, NC (200,000 236th)

Also, I included Annapolis in the Baltimore metro.

, and it got me thinking, "how does one accurately determine a college team's market?" With some teams, it's kinda obvious like UCLA's market is LA and Miami, Fl's market is Miami, etc. But how do you determine USC's market? It stands for the University of Southern California, so just how many markets can it claim? And Auburn has fans both in the states of Alabama and Georgia. What markets can they claim? See what I mean? So, how does one determine the market for each team??

Markets have little to do with broadcast ratings. That is a reflection of history of success and quality of the program.

Markets are a factor in developing attendance and fan support on a regional level, which over time can impact broadcast ratings. SMU has been discussed already. The Mustangs had a long history of success in the old SWC, but not since, and they also carry the distinction of having received the death penalty. TCU, also in the Dallas market, has managed to elevate their program back into a P5 conference. Both are small private schools, with a limited ability to attract sizable fan support and have struggled to draw large crowds (realistically: SMU draws far fewer fans then they report, TCU draws a large numbers of visitors when they play one of the Texas Big12 teams). North Texas the 3rd FBS program in the Dallas area, is the only public university in the bunch, and has more students then SMU and TCU combined, but lacks the deep pockets and SWC pedigree of SMU and TCU. Truth is Texas and Texas A&M rate higher in Dallas than all of us, and they are not located in our market. So there you go.
07-29-2017 02:52 PM
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Post: #20
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
I would say that while Dallas is still very much a no man's land, TCU has done a great job of capitalizing on the Big 12 and selling itself as Fort Worth's hometown team. There's just a different level of presence here now that wasn't there even 5-6 years ago when I first moved back to the area here with things like Go Purple Fridays program with the City of Fort Worth. TCU's strategy of trying to be Fort Worth's team rather than all of DFWs team (for now) is doing a great job of brand building which is often hard for small private schools.
(This post was last modified: 07-29-2017 03:25 PM by 10thMountain.)
07-29-2017 03:22 PM
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