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How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
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Post: #61
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-30-2017 04:19 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  
(07-30-2017 02:43 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  But someone like Louisiana-Monroe or Appalachian State is a million times less likely to immediately grab new fans as opposed to Temple.

1. This isn't true.
2. You're creating a proxy to measure something that's easier to measure than the proxy. Markets are meaningless. Fans matter. There is no positive correlation between media value and the size of the local market.

Prove it isn't true.

Markets aren't meaningless, they're just overrated.
07-31-2017 12:09 AM
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Post: #62
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-30-2017 03:42 PM)Huskies12 Wrote:  This is obviously just my opinion but if Temple was named Philly U and Rutgers named NJU they would have an easier time attracting non-alum fans.

I always thought Rutgers should have emphasized the New Jersey part more in their name. Their current name sounds like a Patriot League name, granted I know the faculty there loves to be compared to the academic types.
07-31-2017 12:17 AM
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Post: #63
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-30-2017 04:39 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  A big market can actually be a bad thing, particularly if competition from pro sports comes with it. Quite a few programs have to deal with being in the NFL's shadow:

NE Patriots: BC (and to an extent UConn & UMass)
NY Jets/Giants: Rutgers
Buffalo Bills: Syracuse (could have more regional appeal)
Philadelphia Eagles: Temple
Pittsburgh Steelers: Pitt
Washington Redskins: Maryland
Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati (Bearcats, that is)
Chicago: Northwestern
Carolina Panthers: Charlotte 49ers and probably has some impact on all the Carolina teams
Atlanta Falcons: GT, GA St
Tennessee Titans: Vanderbilt
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: USF
Miami Dolphins: U of Miami, FAU, FIU
NO Saints: Tulane
Houston Texans: Houston Cougars, Rice
Dallas Cowboys: SMU, TCU, UNT
Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota Golden Gophers
Arizona Cardinals: Ariz St
Seattle Seahawks: Washington
SF 49ers/Oakland Raiders: Cal, Stanford

I left off the LA teams because I feel like they have done just fine even when they shared the market with the NFL but I with its return I think the brand names of USC and UCLA will remain strong.

Many of those programs were much better supported within their cities before the NFL grew in popularity and expanded through the 60s and 70s.

State flagships do fine but everyone else struggles.
07-31-2017 12:23 AM
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Post: #64
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-31-2017 12:23 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  State flagships do fine but everyone else struggles.

State flagships in P5 conferences. New Mexico, Connecticut, and Wyoming are not exactly making $6m in gate every home game. Rutgers is in a P5 and not exactly raking in the gate either. Cal is definitely hurt by the diversion of money to the NFL teams -- they badly need more high end set buyers to pay down their stadium debt. (I do think Cal being as exclusive as they are loses a lot of regional support because those of us who went to a CSU can never support them, and we way out number Cal grads)
07-31-2017 12:34 AM
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Post: #65
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
I'm talking about in NFL markets. Rutgers technically is but they're not directly in or right next to the city their NFL market claims.
07-31-2017 01:13 AM
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lance99 Offline
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Post: #66
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-30-2017 11:39 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Unless a state or market is too devoid of population to support a program, the "market" does not really matter.
1.8 million is sufficient to support a very credible P5 and a G5.
1.9 million is sufficient to support one of the biggest names in football, Nebraska.
585,000 is sufficient to support a high level G5 in Wyoming.

Number of people isn't nearly as important as number of people interested in college football and willing to attend a school's games. It has been reported that college football draws roughly the same number of eyeballs in the Birmingham television market as the New York television market.

Keep in mind that NYC is an outlier. They may be the largest market, but it is a Pro team City....
07-31-2017 11:12 AM
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lance99 Offline
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Post: #67
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-30-2017 04:39 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  A big market can actually be a bad thing, particularly if competition from pro sports comes with it. Quite a few programs have to deal with being in the NFL's shadow:

NE Patriots: BC (and to an extent UConn & UMass)
NY Jets/Giants: Rutgers
Buffalo Bills: Syracuse (could have more regional appeal)
Philadelphia Eagles: Temple
Pittsburgh Steelers: Pitt
Washington Redskins: Maryland
Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati (Bearcats, that is)
Chicago: Northwestern
Carolina Panthers: Charlotte 49ers and probably has some impact on all the Carolina teams
Atlanta Falcons: GT, GA St
Tennessee Titans: Vanderbilt
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: USF
Miami Dolphins: U of Miami, FAU, FIU
NO Saints: Tulane
Houston Texans: Houston Cougars, Rice
Dallas Cowboys: SMU, TCU, UNT
Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota Golden Gophers
Arizona Cardinals: Ariz St
Seattle Seahawks: Washington
SF 49ers/Oakland Raiders: Cal, Stanford

I left off the LA teams because I feel like they have done just fine even when they shared the market with the NFL but I with its return I think the brand names of USC and UCLA will remain strong.

Many of those programs were much better supported within their cities before the NFL grew in popularity and expanded through the 60s and 70s.


Yes and no. I will counter with Cleveland and Detroit. In the Case of the Browns, there is the following: Akron, Kent and Youngstown State(plus the smaller schools). It doesn't help having the Browns, but it does not hurt also due to the fact that IMHO, most fans does not consider them direct competition. It is High School that is a direct competitor in the area....

In the Case of the Lions you have the following: Michigan, Eastern Michigan and to an extent Toledo. Michigan does just fine being in the Lions shadow. In the case of Eastern, there was a time that they could draw well(30 years ago). Maybe not as good as the school 6 miles away from them, but decent for a MAC school. In the case of Toledo, they are far enough away from Detroit(even if in the same Territory) that they draw very well.....
07-31-2017 11:25 AM
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nzmorange Offline
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Post: #68
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-31-2017 01:13 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  I'm talking about in NFL markets. Rutgers technically is but they're not directly in or right next to the city their NFL market claims.

This is reason #57732684379942685379537 why discussing markets is almost always a dumb waste of time. Arguing that Rutgers doesn't directly compete against the NJ Giants and Jets is nuts. Heck, RU competes against the Rangers, Devils, Islanders, Yankees, Mets, Pinstripes, Red Bull's, Nets, Knicks + a whole host of other colleges. And, if you really want to get into it, RU competes against art museums, clubs, Broadway, and the other 16 billion things to do in NYC.

...and that's just direct competition.

You could also argue that RU competes against the Philly sphere as well, which includes the Eagles, Flyers, Phillies, 76ers, etc.

Fans matter. Arbitrary geographic lines on a map do not.
07-31-2017 11:45 AM
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Post: #69
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
I think you could factor in several things.

1) Size of TV market
2) Size of student/alumni base
3) Competition from other sports/events
4) Competition from other colleges
5) Passion of fan base

For example, UCLA is in major market but has competition galore while Nebraska pretty much has the entire state to themselves.
07-31-2017 11:55 AM
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lance99 Offline
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Post: #70
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-31-2017 11:55 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  I think you could factor in several things.

1) Size of TV market
2) Size of student/alumni base
3) Competition from other sports/events
4) Competition from other colleges
5) Passion of fan base

For example, UCLA is in major market but has competition galore while Nebraska pretty much has the entire state to themselves.

I have always said that Markets do no matter. Example A and B is Rugeters and Nebraska.

If it was all about Market, Nebraska is not even in the conversation, there massive fanbase(with their Radio Network) got them in while in the case of Rugeters, it was the Conferences Massive Aliumi Base in that part of the country.....

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07-31-2017 12:21 PM
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nzmorange Offline
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Post: #71
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-31-2017 12:21 PM)lance99 Wrote:  
(07-31-2017 11:55 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  I think you could factor in several things.

1) Size of TV market
2) Size of student/alumni base
3) Competition from other sports/events
4) Competition from other colleges
5) Passion of fan base

For example, UCLA is in major market but has competition galore while Nebraska pretty much has the entire state to themselves.

I have always said that Markets do no matter. Example A and B is Rugeters and Nebraska.

If it was all about Market, Nebraska is not even in the conversation, there massive fanbase(with their Radio Network) got them in while in the case of Rugeters, it was the Conferences Massive Aliumi Base in that part of the country.....

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I'd also give RU NJ recruiting. A lot of the B1G East recruits students and athletes out of NJ/NYC.
07-31-2017 12:48 PM
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Post: #72
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-31-2017 12:21 PM)lance99 Wrote:  
(07-31-2017 11:55 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  I think you could factor in several things.

1) Size of TV market
2) Size of student/alumni base
3) Competition from other sports/events
4) Competition from other colleges
5) Passion of fan base

For example, UCLA is in major market but has competition galore while Nebraska pretty much has the entire state to themselves.

I have always said that Markets do no matter. Example A and B is Rugeters and Nebraska.

If it was all about Market, Nebraska is not even in the conversation, there massive fanbase(with their Radio Network) got them in while in the case of Rugeters, it was the Conferences Massive Aliumi Base in that part of the country.....

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Market size is ONE of the factors, not the entire equation.

You're right, if it were just about markets, Nebraska would hardly be on the radar. That being said, you can't completely dismiss markets from the conversation.
07-31-2017 01:08 PM
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Post: #73
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-31-2017 12:09 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  
(07-30-2017 04:19 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  
(07-30-2017 02:43 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  But someone like Louisiana-Monroe or Appalachian State is a million times less likely to immediately grab new fans as opposed to Temple.

1. This isn't true.
2. You're creating a proxy to measure something that's easier to measure than the proxy. Markets are meaningless. Fans matter. There is no positive correlation between media value and the size of the local market.

Prove it isn't true.

Markets aren't meaningless, they're just overrated.

If we are talking Nielsen markets they are wildly over-rated.

The geography of the DFW market is massive. Most people in the outlying areas of the DFW market cannot watch DFW television without a really good antenna set-up and post-digital transition even that is going to be iffy, but those same people often can see stations from other markets.

Jonesboro market stations top the ratings in a few Arkansas counties that are in the Memphis market and at least one that is in the Little Rock market because they are so close to the Jonesboro transmitters for ABC, NBC, and PBS that those stations can be seen with rabbit ears, Little Rock and Memphis a quality antenna or cable/sat.

So the TV markets as defined by Nielsen aren't especially good at representing the facts on the ground and in turn not very good.

In the retail industry markets flux over time. My brother-in-law 15 years ago would never go to Jonesboro for big ticket shopping or Christmas shopping. Better roads coupled with better retail options means they now do that shopping in Jonesboro instead of Little Rock, they run a bit of a risk not finding what they want but it is offset by less time behind the wheel and less traffic. Likewise parts of Eastern Arkansas now gravitate more to Jonesboro than Memphis, while some of North Central Arkansas gravitates more to Branson than in the past.
07-31-2017 01:34 PM
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nzmorange Offline
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Post: #74
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-31-2017 12:09 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  
(07-30-2017 04:19 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  
(07-30-2017 02:43 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  But someone like Louisiana-Monroe or Appalachian State is a million times less likely to immediately grab new fans as opposed to Temple.

1. This isn't true.
2. You're creating a proxy to measure something that's easier to measure than the proxy. Markets are meaningless. Fans matter. There is no positive correlation between media value and the size of the local market.

Prove it isn't true.

Markets aren't meaningless, they're just overrated.

You made the claim. You prove your claim.

But run a regression between market size (defined however you want, so long as it's within reason) and value as measured by school revenue (or any other reasonable measure that you want), and see if there's a positive correlation. There won't be.
(This post was last modified: 07-31-2017 03:00 PM by nzmorange.)
07-31-2017 02:59 PM
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Post: #75
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-31-2017 11:45 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  
(07-31-2017 01:13 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  I'm talking about in NFL markets. Rutgers technically is but they're not directly in or right next to the city their NFL market claims.

This is reason #57732684379942685379537 why discussing markets is almost always a dumb waste of time. Arguing that Rutgers doesn't directly compete against the NJ Giants and Jets is nuts. Heck, RU competes against the Rangers, Devils, Islanders, Yankees, Mets, Pinstripes, Red Bull's, Nets, Knicks + a whole host of other colleges. And, if you really want to get into it, RU competes against art museums, clubs, Broadway, and the other 16 billion things to do in NYC.

...and that's just direct competition.

You could also argue that RU competes against the Philly sphere as well, which includes the Eagles, Flyers, Phillies, 76ers, etc.

Fans matter. Arbitrary geographic lines on a map do not.

Fans matter the most obviously. In general though t-shirt fans root for a team because its close and represents the city or state. So if Rutgers has 9 million people around and some other school has 300,000 people in the area Rutgers probably has a better chance for t-shirt fans.
07-31-2017 03:00 PM
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Post: #76
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-31-2017 01:34 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(07-31-2017 12:09 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  
(07-30-2017 04:19 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  
(07-30-2017 02:43 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  But someone like Louisiana-Monroe or Appalachian State is a million times less likely to immediately grab new fans as opposed to Temple.

1. This isn't true.
2. You're creating a proxy to measure something that's easier to measure than the proxy. Markets are meaningless. Fans matter. There is no positive correlation between media value and the size of the local market.

Prove it isn't true.

Markets aren't meaningless, they're just overrated.

If we are talking Nielsen markets they are wildly over-rated.

The geography of the DFW market is massive. Most people in the outlying areas of the DFW market cannot watch DFW television without a really good antenna set-up and post-digital transition even that is going to be iffy, but those same people often can see stations from other markets.

Jonesboro market stations top the ratings in a few Arkansas counties that are in the Memphis market and at least one that is in the Little Rock market because they are so close to the Jonesboro transmitters for ABC, NBC, and PBS that those stations can be seen with rabbit ears, Little Rock and Memphis a quality antenna or cable/sat.

So the TV markets as defined by Nielsen aren't especially good at representing the facts on the ground and in turn not very good.

In the retail industry markets flux over time. My brother-in-law 15 years ago would never go to Jonesboro for big ticket shopping or Christmas shopping. Better roads coupled with better retail options means they now do that shopping in Jonesboro instead of Little Rock, they run a bit of a risk not finding what they want but it is offset by less time behind the wheel and less traffic. Likewise parts of Eastern Arkansas now gravitate more to Jonesboro than Memphis, while some of North Central Arkansas gravitates more to Branson than in the past.

TV markets aren't all that they are cracked up to be. Myrtle Beach is an example of this. The market has grown tremendously over the last few decades. People used to have to go to Charleston or Wilmington for decent stores. They don't have to do that any more. The road network has also improved with the bypasses (SC 31 and 22) that bypass often gridlocked US 17.

Ten years ago, MB didn't even have an NBC affiliate. NBC came through Wilmington, Charleston or Columbia (the MB cable system carried Wilmington and Columbia). At one point back in the 80s and early 90s, Horry County was even in Wilmington's TV market. All of Wilmington's stations came in well there, while the two stations based in Florence at the time (WBTW and WPDE) had their transmitters well inland, near I-95.

As more people got cable, Horry County became a part of the Florence market, and later those two stations moved their studios to Myrtle. Coastal Carolina really only has a big fan base in two counties, Horry and Georgetown, but it is now the only FBS with football between Columbia, Fayetteville, and Charleston. That is something that they can improve on as the Sun Belt gets more exposure.

Charleston stations have started to cover CCU more, as Georgetown County, which has some areas less than 20 miles from CCU's campus, is in the market. This coverage will probably grow over the next few years.
07-31-2017 06:57 PM
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Post: #77
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
Markets aren't meaningless, they're just overrated.
[/quote]

If we are talking Nielsen markets they are wildly over-rated.

The geography of the DFW market is massive. Most people in the outlying areas of the DFW market cannot watch DFW television without a really good antenna set-up and post-digital transition even that is going to be iffy, but those same people often can see stations from other markets.

Because this area is flat most anyone can receive the DFW stations in the DFW area with an antenna. Besides that most people have cable or satellite.
07-31-2017 07:55 PM
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Post: #78
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-31-2017 11:12 AM)lance99 Wrote:  
(07-30-2017 11:39 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Unless a state or market is too devoid of population to support a program, the "market" does not really matter.
1.8 million is sufficient to support a very credible P5 and a G5.
1.9 million is sufficient to support one of the biggest names in football, Nebraska.
585,000 is sufficient to support a high level G5 in Wyoming.

Number of people isn't nearly as important as number of people interested in college football and willing to attend a school's games. It has been reported that college football draws roughly the same number of eyeballs in the Birmingham television market as the New York television market.

Keep in mind that NYC is an outlier. They may be the largest market, but it is a Pro team City....

Birmingham is an outlier. I somehow doubt it has more overall eyeballs than the New York market. Maybe New York City itself but it's at least 10.5 times bigger than Birmingham, if not 20 times bigger.
07-31-2017 08:52 PM
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Post: #79
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-31-2017 11:45 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  
(07-31-2017 01:13 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  I'm talking about in NFL markets. Rutgers technically is but they're not directly in or right next to the city their NFL market claims.

This is reason #57732684379942685379537 why discussing markets is almost always a dumb waste of time. Arguing that Rutgers doesn't directly compete against the NJ Giants and Jets is nuts. Heck, RU competes against the Rangers, Devils, Islanders, Yankees, Mets, Pinstripes, Red Bull's, Nets, Knicks + a whole host of other colleges. And, if you really want to get into it, RU competes against art museums, clubs, Broadway, and the other 16 billion things to do in NYC.

...and that's just direct competition.

You could also argue that RU competes against the Philly sphere as well, which includes the Eagles, Flyers, Phillies, 76ers, etc.

Fans matter. Arbitrary geographic lines on a map do not.

Did I say they didn't directly compete with the Giants/Jets? I said they're not directly in or right next to NYC. They have a presence in the market but realistically can't compete with either of them. Rutgers is by no means the college football team of NYC, just for some people that live in NYC and Northern New Jersey.

Maybe I'm wrong, being an outsider but that's what I guage.
07-31-2017 09:07 PM
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Post: #80
RE: How do you accurately determine a college team's market??
(07-31-2017 08:52 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  
(07-31-2017 11:12 AM)lance99 Wrote:  
(07-30-2017 11:39 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Unless a state or market is too devoid of population to support a program, the "market" does not really matter.
1.8 million is sufficient to support a very credible P5 and a G5.
1.9 million is sufficient to support one of the biggest names in football, Nebraska.
585,000 is sufficient to support a high level G5 in Wyoming.

Number of people isn't nearly as important as number of people interested in college football and willing to attend a school's games. It has been reported that college football draws roughly the same number of eyeballs in the Birmingham television market as the New York television market.

Keep in mind that NYC is an outlier. They may be the largest market, but it is a Pro team City....

Birmingham is an outlier. I somehow doubt it has more overall eyeballs than the New York market. Maybe New York City itself but it's at least 10.5 times bigger than Birmingham, if not 20 times bigger.

If I'm selling ads for college football broadcasts Birmingham and New York City have identical value.
If I'm selling ads for NBA basketball, New York is going to be more valuable than Birmingham by a wide margin.
If I'm selling ads for "Beat Shazam", New York is going to be more valuable.

But if I'm in the college football business, I don't really care what the ad market is for NBA basketball.
08-01-2017 08:47 AM
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