otown
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RE: The P6 brand is working:
(07-19-2017 06:47 PM)quo vadis Wrote: (07-19-2017 10:18 AM)otown Wrote: (07-19-2017 07:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (07-18-2017 07:23 PM)otown Wrote: (07-18-2017 11:25 AM)quo vadis Wrote: Here's what the author says about the goal of the P6 campaign:
"Instead of a playoff spot, the AAC is hoping that the perception it creates by championing itself as the most powerful Group of Five conference will help its champion earn that benefit of the doubt when the selection committee places teams in bowl games and gives its top-ranked Group of Five team a spot in the vaunted New Year's Six."
There are two things wrong with this. First, the AAC's campaign is not about positioning itself as the most powerful G5 conference. The whole concept of "P6" is that the AAC is NOT a member of the G5 at all, but rather should be regarded as a Power conference.
Second, if he's right about the goal of the campaign, to get the benefit of the doubt in CFP deliberations about which G5 school gets the NY6 Bowl bid, the available evidence suggests it has NOT worked, as the AAC has gotten the NY6 bid only 1 time in the 3 years it has been available. Heck, it failed to get that bid this past year, when it was easily the best of the G5 conferences during the regular season.
So this article seems a lot of poofery with nothing to back it up.
I don't expect you to respond......buuuuuttt.........AAC got the bid 1 time out of 3 chances..... and in the 2 that they were not selected, their top team had more loses during the regular season. Soooo...... quo...... I must ask........ if every conceivable media outlet expects the AAC to get the nod with an equal amount of loses to a candidate from one of the other conferences..........how exactly is it not working? The AAC gets the benefit.....other conferences have to have a better record, since tying the AAC will not get them in.
I think that when this guaranteed slot for the G5 was created during the CFP negotiations, that it was more or less expected to be a shoe-in slot for the Big East/AAC. Aresco even celebrated it as such. Sure, maybe Boise might get it every few years, but other than that, it was created almost as a quasi-guarantee for the AAC. Obviously, it hasn't worked out that way so far.
As for losses, it's not anywhere near the case that if two teams have the same record, the team that gets a bid over the other got any kind of psychic benefit from whoever made the selection. Oftentimes, one 9-2 team is clearly more deserving than another 9-2 team, usually because of schedule strength or somesuch.
No, evidence for a real benefit is when team (or conference) A is ranked above or gets a bid over B when A is 9-2 while B is 10-1. That does happen, but so far the AAC hasn't pulled that off. There just is no evidence so far that the CFP gives the AAC any kind of special boost in their rankings, and especially not based on this P6 campaign.
The author of the article just made an unjustified assertion, namely that the AAC's P6 campaign has created some kind of impression in the mind of the CFP that favors it. So far, there is no evidence for that.
Proof?
Look no further than 2016 CFP rankings.
Week 13: 2 loss Houston one slot behind 1 loss Boise. You bet your butt Houston would be ahead of them with equal loses. Zero loss WMU behind both.
Week 14: Houston and Boise lose, but Houston remains at 24 with 3 losses and Boise drops out with 2 losses. WMU now top and undefeated, but Navy slings onto their behinds with 2 loses.
Week 15: Navy get 3 loses and drops, but still ranked. Temple joins as being ranked with 3 loses. WMU still undefeated. Its clear based on the trend that if Navy would have won the final game, they would have hopped WMU with 2 losses.
How about 2014 rankings.
Boise got in over Marshal with more losses. I am sure that if the AAC didn't have a total disaster year, with equal losses, they would have been ahead of Boise
Bringing back the BCS era (yes, not quite apples to oranges), lets pretend AAC was not a BCS conference at the time
Week 16 UCF same amount of losses to Fresno State and NIU, but 5 slots ahead Fresno and 8 ahead of NIU.
So it seems to me that an AAC team seems to finish ahead of the MWC when tied and neck and neck when even one more loss. Same can be said with the MWC compared the MAC/Sunbelt/CUSA.
Quo, these are the facts. History shows the trends. You cannot use your personal bias against the facts, and the facts are in the historical trends. AAC has a one stroke handicap against the MWC and a 2 stroke handicap against the MAC/CUSA/Sunbelt.
So yes, the P6 is working. Its just that the AAC seems to consistently beat up on one onother. We have no clear top.
A couple of things wrong with your account. First, the "P6 campaign" can't have accounted for any edge the AAC got in 2015 or before, because the campaign was just launched last year. Heck, it wasn't formally launched until just a couple months ago, on May 1st, and informally it didn't go into effect until very late last season, IIRC the weekend of November 5th was when our teams started wearing "P6" patches on the helmets.
So that wipes out the great bulk of your timeline events right there.
As for Houston vs Boise last year, I agree that was instructive, but not in the way you think. Yes, Houston was breathing down Boise's neck during week 13, but they had the unique situation of having just beaten #5 Louisville, and also an earlier big win over a top-5 Oklahoma team. That's what it took on a AAC team's resume, two wins over top-5 ranked P5 powers (not very likely to happen again, eh?), and they were STILL ranked behind another G5 team from the MWC that had one fewer loss!
Not much evidence of an "AAC premium" there.
As for Navy, you aren't presenting facts, just your speculation about what you believe would have happened if they'd won the AAC title game. Yeah, you're "sure" that Navy would have jumped ahead, just like you're "sure" an AAC team in 2014 with same record as Boise woulda jumped them. Those aren't facts, they are woulda coulda shoulda wishful thinking.
You speak of facts, but here are the facts:
(1) The AAC has received just 1 of the 3 automatic NY6 bids despite expectations they would dominate the bid.
(2) No AAC team has yet received the bid while getting any kind of "AAC premium" over a team from any other G5 conference.
(3) So far, the only conference which has is the MWC, in 2014 Boise got the bid despite having a worse record than Marshall of C-USA.
1. You are trying to make your point by looking at stats in a vacuum. Any peer reviewed study would get you blown out of the water.
2. Once again, you are looking at it in a vacuum. Unfortunately for you, the CFP does their rankings weekly, in fact, many weeks in advance. Plenty of facts there to back my claim. One can clearly demarcate a trend for an expected outcome based on those trends inserting one less loss.
3. You really have no statistical knowledge do you? You cannot look at the end result to prove or disprove the AAC handicap hypothesis without looking at how an outcome occurred and trends set in the study.
(This post was last modified: 07-19-2017 07:32 PM by otown.)
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