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NCAA selection process
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #1
NCAA selection process
Just saw this....
There still will be four separate columns, with the first column consisting of home games against teams ranked 1-30, neutral-site games against teams ranked in the top 50 and road games against opponents ranked in the top 75. The second column will include home games against teams ranked 31-75, neutral-site games versus teams ranked 51-100 and road games against teams ranked 76-135.

The third column will consist of home games played against competition ranked 76-160, games played on a neutral court versus teams ranked 101-200 and games on the road against teams ranked 136-240. The fourth column will include home games against teams ranked 161-351, neutral-site games played against teams ranked 201-351 and road games versus opponents ranked 241-351.


So for instance- last year a team like #1 Villanova(by RPI going into tourney)

old way-
12-2 vs top 50
5-1 vs 51-100
9-0 vs 101-200
5-0 vs 201-351

new way-
11-2 vs tier 1(2-1 home top 30, 4-0 neutral top 50, 5-2 vs away top 75)
7-1 vs tier 2(5-1 vs h 31-75, 1-0 vs N 51-100, 1-0 a 76-135)
9-0 vs tier 3(3-0 vs h 76-160, 1-0 vs N 101-200, 5-0 vs a 136-240)
4-0 vs tier 4(4-0 vs h 161+)

Seems pretty reasonable.
07-14-2017 01:04 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #2
RE: NCAA selection process
Briefly ... why is this new method more fair than just based off opponent ranking regardless where the game was played?
07-14-2017 01:24 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #3
RE: NCAA selection process
because beating #50 team on the road is statistically tougher than beating the 31st team at home.
07-14-2017 01:28 PM
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jhn31 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: NCAA selection process
Still arbitrary cutoffs. There's no special significance about the 30th best team compared to the 31st, but a home win over #30 is worth a lot more.

A mid major who beats #5, 31, and 32 is a lot more impressive than one who beats 26, 30, and 74, etc.
(This post was last modified: 07-14-2017 01:34 PM by jhn31.)
07-14-2017 01:34 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #5
RE: NCAA selection process
did a bit of quick looking:

last team in:
57 Kansas St
1-3 vs h t30
1-2 vs n t50
4-3 vs a t75
6-8 vs tier 1 (4-9)

0-2 vs h 31-75
0-2 vs a 76-135
0-4 vs tier 2(2-2)

4-0 vs h 76-160
2-1 vs a 161-240
6-1 vs tier 3(8-2)

8-0 vs h 161-351 (6-0)

1st team out:
Syracuse
3-1 vs h t30
0-2 vs n t50
1-6 vs a t75
4-9 vs tier 1 (6-8)

4-0 vs h 31-75
0-1 vs a 76-135
4-1 vs tier 2 (2-1)

1-2 vs h 76-160
0-1 vs n 101-200
1-1 vs a 136-240
2-4 vs tier 3 (4-4)

8-0 vs h 161-351(6-1)

Illinois St
0-0 vs h t30
0-1 vs n t50
0-2 vs a t75
0-3 tier 1(1-2)

1-0 vs h 31-75
0-1 vs n 51-100
0-1 vs a 76-135
1-2 tier 2(1-2)

2-0 vs h 76-160
3-0 vs n 101-200
7-1 vs a 136-240
12-1 tier 3(13-1)

11-0 vs h 161-351
2-0 vs a 241-351
13-0 tier 4(11-1)
07-14-2017 01:37 PM
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Jjoey52 Online
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Post: #6
NCAA selection process
I am glad they are finally giving some consideration to road wins as mids have to do their work on the road.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
(This post was last modified: 07-14-2017 01:53 PM by Jjoey52.)
07-14-2017 01:53 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: NCAA selection process
(07-14-2017 01:53 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  I am glad they are finally giving some consideration to road wins as mids have to do their work on the road.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I don't think it's going to help anywhere near as much as you think. I mean look at Illinois St. They lose their tier 1 home game vs Wichita as a result of the change. Going to be very rare when you see them with a home game that's categorized in tier 1.
07-14-2017 02:04 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #8
RE: NCAA selection process
Sorry if this is a dumb question .... but it's the opponent ranking during the game, not at the end of the season, right?
07-14-2017 02:06 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #9
RE: NCAA selection process
(07-14-2017 02:06 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Sorry if this is a dumb question .... but it's the opponent ranking during the game, not at the end of the season, right?

no, end of the season. kind of tough to do a rating for game 2 of the year.....
07-14-2017 02:09 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #10
RE: NCAA selection process
I don't like that. You beat a team easily early in the year, then get extra credit when they rise. Conversely, you pull off a really tough game on the road against a top team only to see them tank the rest of the season and lose credit for the win.
07-14-2017 02:16 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #11
RE: NCAA selection process
(07-14-2017 02:16 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  I don't like that. You beat a team easily early in the year, then get extra credit when they rise. Conversely, you pull off a really tough game on the road against a top team only to see them tank the rest of the season and lose credit for the win.

But that's gasp, giving teams credit for how the teams actually are and not how they're supposed to be. What a novel concept. If I play team x and they're supposed to be something, but they totally crap the bed, why should I get all that much credit? but then again, if I play team y, and they're supposed to suck, but they come out of no where and have a great season, why shouldn't I get credit?
07-14-2017 02:19 PM
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Cyniclone Online
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Post: #12
RE: NCAA selection process
(07-14-2017 01:28 PM)stever20 Wrote:  because beating #50 team on the road is statistically tougher than beating the 31st team at home.

I agree, but I wonder if they overcompensated on road games, because now they're treating a road win against a 135 RPI team with the same weight as a home win against a 31 RPI team.

This might also lead to more home-neutral games, since it doesn't appear to distinguish between UNC vs. UCLA in Kansas City and UNC v. UCLA in Greensboro.
07-14-2017 02:23 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #13
RE: NCAA selection process
(07-14-2017 02:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(07-14-2017 02:16 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  I don't like that. You beat a team easily early in the year, then get extra credit when they rise. Conversely, you pull off a really tough game on the road against a top team only to see them tank the rest of the season and lose credit for the win.

But that's gasp, giving teams credit for how the teams actually are and not how they're supposed to be. What a novel concept. If I play team x and they're supposed to be something, but they totally crap the bed, why should I get all that much credit? but then again, if I play team y, and they're supposed to suck, but they come out of no where and have a great season, why shouldn't I get credit?

Like when BYU during their NC season got a ton of credit for beating #3 Pittsburgh on the road, a same Pitt team that finished 3-9. In retrospect, beating Pitt was no big deal, but BYU jumped a lot of teams because of the perception at the time.
07-14-2017 02:43 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #14
RE: NCAA selection process
(07-14-2017 02:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  But that's gasp, giving teams credit for how the teams actually are and not how they're supposed to be. What a novel concept. If I play team x and they're supposed to be something, but they totally crap the bed, why should I get all that much credit? but then again, if I play team y, and they're supposed to suck, but they come out of no where and have a great season, why shouldn't I get credit?

You've never heard of injuries, or switching strategies?


(07-14-2017 02:43 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Like when BYU during their NC season got a ton of credit for beating #3 Pittsburgh on the road, a same Pitt team that finished 3-9. In retrospect, beating Pitt was no big deal, but BYU jumped a lot of teams because of the perception at the time.

If it happens this way more often than the other way, then it is correct to do it base off end of season rankings.

But if happens the other way more than this way, it should be correct to base the ranking on when the teams play.
07-14-2017 03:04 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #15
RE: NCAA selection process
using the Big East from last year-

games that were tier 1 but now are tier 2-
home games vs #32 Creighton, #46 Seton Hall
games that were tier 2 but are now tier 1-
away games vs #61 Providence, #67 Marquette
games that were tier 3 but are now tier 2-
away game vs #115 Georgetown
games that were tier 4 but are now tier 3-
away game vs #236 DePaul

so a net 2 spot improvement...
07-14-2017 03:19 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #16
RE: NCAA selection process
So basically, they are going to look at some different metrics, and if that still doesn't give them the result they are looking for, then they will decide based on their gut, just like they always have. What else is new?
07-14-2017 03:38 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #17
RE: NCAA selection process
Might help mid-majors get more quality NC home games.
07-14-2017 06:03 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #18
RE: NCAA selection process
(07-14-2017 02:23 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  
(07-14-2017 01:28 PM)stever20 Wrote:  because beating #50 team on the road is statistically tougher than beating the 31st team at home.

I agree, but I wonder if they overcompensated on road games, because now they're treating a road win against a 135 RPI team with the same weight as a home win against a 31 RPI team.

This might also lead to more home-neutral games, since it doesn't appear to distinguish between UNC vs. UCLA in Kansas City and UNC v. UCLA in Greensboro.

That won't happen often. Teams are not going to lose sight of economics and burn their season ticket holders by moving their best non-conference home games out of their home arena. The top teams will continue to play those made-for-ESPN one-offs in NYC or Chicago or wherever, but they're not going to leave their most loyal supporters with nothing but Southern Manitoba State games for a home schedule.
07-14-2017 08:54 PM
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SouthEastAlaska Offline
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Post: #19
RE: NCAA selection process
So does this change anything Steve? Is this really going to push more mid-majors into the tournament? Or is this just fluff to make someone feel better about the process?
(This post was last modified: 07-14-2017 10:46 PM by SouthEastAlaska.)
07-14-2017 10:45 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #20
RE: NCAA selection process
I really don't think it's going to impact the mid majors as some folks think. I mean, look at what I posted earlier with Illinois St. I think any games that they might gain in the 51-75 road category they may lose in the 31-50 home range.
07-14-2017 11:38 PM
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