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Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
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Hokie4Skins Offline
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Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college...ve-forward

It would be interesting to see the list of schools that Bowlsby "could cry over" passing on.
07-10-2017 07:56 AM
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RE: Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
If the Big 12 had added Louisville in 2011, in addition to West Virginia, TCU and - probably - Cincinnati, then the whole narrative about the Big 12 being on life support goes away. The league continues on with 12 teams and 12 very solid athletic programs. Unfortunately, Big 12 bosses didn't think Louisville was good enough, so they passed and only selected West Virginia (which is still on a monumental island).

The Big 12 will not be getting $35 million annually in its next contract if they continue to be the weakest link in the power conference chain. Bowlsby, Boren and others can proclaim how everything is great, but results, markets and program prestige matters. Having 20% of your conference composed of Kansas and Iowa State (programs with a combined three winning seasons in the past 10 years) doesn't help. Having Baylor, in its current state with negative national perception, doesn't help. Having Bob Stoops, one of the top college football head coaches, just retire, doesn't help. Having Texas continue to be down, doesn't help.

What exactly will the next Big 12 contract be buying-in to?
07-10-2017 08:28 AM
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RE: Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
My top three guesses would be.

Louisville
Clemson
FSU

I think the weakest the ACC was when MD decided to bolt, that may have been the perfect chance for the B12 to poach the ACC. By the ACC taking Louisville, Swofford showed the ACC would finally listen to the football schools.
07-10-2017 08:35 AM
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Lenvillecards Offline
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Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
(07-10-2017 07:56 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college...ve-forward

It would be interesting to see the list of schools that Bowlsby "could cry over" passing on.

Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Louisville & BYU?

I believe Pittsburgh & the B12 were in talks before A&M & Missouri left, would they still have left if Pitt & Syracuse were coming in? If so then still replace them with TCU & WV. Add Louisville & BYU for 14. Would ND find a B12 with those 14 schools more enticing? Cincinnati to the ACC to replace Maryland?
07-10-2017 08:44 AM
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Hokie4Skins Offline
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RE: Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
Six years ago, Pete Thamel reported that the original schools the Big 12 was interested in were Notre Dame, Arkansas, Pitt and BYU. That was pre-Bowlsby though.
07-10-2017 08:53 AM
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RE: Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
(07-10-2017 08:44 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  
(07-10-2017 07:56 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college...ve-forward

It would be interesting to see the list of schools that Bowlsby "could cry over" passing on.

Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Louisville & BYU?

I believe Pittsburgh & the B12 were in talks before A&M & Missouri left, would they still have left if Pitt & Syracuse were coming in? If so then still replace them with TCU & WV. Add Louisville & BYU for 14. Would ND find a B12 with those 14 schools more enticing? Cincinnati to the ACC to replace Maryland?

What if scenario:

XII loses Colorado to PAC, Nebraska to B1G, and Texas A&M with Missouri to SEC - 8 remain.

XII adds West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Connecticut, TCU, and Houston.

XII East: Connecticut, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Louisville, West Virginia, TCU, Houston
XII West: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Kansas St, Iowa St
07-10-2017 09:19 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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RE: Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
(07-10-2017 08:53 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  Six years ago, Pete Thamel reported that the original schools the Big 12 was interested in were Notre Dame, Arkansas, Pitt and BYU. That was pre-Bowlsby though.

The problem that I've always had with the Big 12 leadership (through multiple regimes) has been their complete and utter delusion regarding poaching power. Notre Dame never had any interest in the Big 12 and Arkansas certainly wasn't ever going to leave the SEC. Pitt and BYU were plausible targets, but Pitt ended up taking an ACC invite while BYU talks broke down over TV contract issues. Later on, the Big 12 had another round of delusional focus on Clemson and FSU. All of this created unreasonable realignment expectations from the Big 12's leadership and fan bases, which further led them to waste time on pie-in-the-sky scenarios, mistakenly pass on truly viable options like Louisville and stifle the Big 12 from making any realistic expansion decisions overall.

The Big 12 isn't necessarily the weakest conference financially as of now, but they're the weakest conference in terms of poaching power because there's literally nothing keeping them together OUTSIDE of money (namely, the Texas haul from the LHN). All of the other P5 leagues have institutional commonalities (e.g. academics, institutional fit, geographic continuity, network effects among multiple major metro areas, etc.) that the Big 12 doesn't really have, which is why they were and continue to be the most vulnerable to poaching by the other P5 conferences. (Note that I don't necessarily believe that the Big 12 will end up splitting even though I believe that they're the weakest P5 league relative to the others. I think the need for Texas to outright control a conference is so strong that they legitimately don't want to leave and other valuable schools like Oklahoma and Kansas have serious political hurdles even if they do want to leave.)
(This post was last modified: 07-10-2017 09:44 AM by Frank the Tank.)
07-10-2017 09:43 AM
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RE: Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
(07-10-2017 09:19 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(07-10-2017 08:44 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  
(07-10-2017 07:56 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college...ve-forward

It would be interesting to see the list of schools that Bowlsby "could cry over" passing on.

Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Louisville & BYU?

I believe Pittsburgh & the B12 were in talks before A&M & Missouri left, would they still have left if Pitt & Syracuse were coming in? If so then still replace them with TCU & WV. Add Louisville & BYU for 14. Would ND find a B12 with those 14 schools more enticing? Cincinnati to the ACC to replace Maryland?

What if scenario:

XII loses Colorado to PAC, Nebraska to B1G, and Texas A&M with Missouri to SEC - 8 remain.

XII adds West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Connecticut, TCU, and Houston.

XII East: Connecticut, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Louisville, West Virginia, TCU, Houston
XII West: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Kansas St, Iowa St

At that time, I am not sure 6 teams would have been added let alone 8. I could see FSU, Clemson, Louisville and WVU would have been excellent objectives to take from the BE and ACC.

If the ACC wins out over the B12 to create a P4, I think it will have more to do with poor B12 decision to not let teams in and the ACC jumping on those mistakes to keep FSU and Clemson happy. SYC, PITT, Louisville and ND OOC long term deal seem to have worked okay for the conference. 2023 will be some interesting negotations. I am envisioning another BE type football chaos during the this period. It should make for an interesting summer in 2023.
07-10-2017 09:56 AM
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RE: Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
Big 12 should have gone to 14.

NORTH
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Louisville
Memphis
Iowa State
BYU
Kansas State

SOUTH
Kansas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
TCU
Texas
Baylor
07-10-2017 10:01 AM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
(07-10-2017 08:35 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  My top three guesses would be.

Louisville
Clemson
FSU

I think the weakest the ACC was when MD decided to bolt, that may have been the perfect chance for the B12 to poach the ACC. By the ACC taking Louisville, Swofford showed the ACC would finally listen to the football schools.

To get from 7 members (when South Carolina left) to 12, the ACC added Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College (at the time thriving in the Big East football). How is that not listening to the football schools? Who else might they have added?

And at the time Maryland left, they were one of the weaker programs in the ACC. Competitively, at least, they weren't a big loss.
07-10-2017 10:08 AM
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OrangeDude Online
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RE: Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
(07-10-2017 08:35 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  My top three guesses would be.

Louisville
Clemson
FSU

I think the weakest the ACC was when MD decided to bolt, that may have been the perfect chance for the B12 to poach the ACC. By the ACC taking Louisville, Swofford showed the ACC would finally listen to the football schools.

They are, imho, the only three truly worth crying about. Not to say that the other possibilities aren't great adds, but those three with any other one would have solidified the overall perception of the conference from the outside and freed up possible targets for both the B1G and the SEC.

Of course, as FTT points out (though in respect to other options mentioned like ND and Arkansas), I believe two of the three above were probably always unlikely. But one never truly knows.

Cheers,
Neil
07-10-2017 10:21 AM
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RE: Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
(07-10-2017 09:56 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(07-10-2017 09:19 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(07-10-2017 08:44 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  
(07-10-2017 07:56 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college...ve-forward

It would be interesting to see the list of schools that Bowlsby "could cry over" passing on.

Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Louisville & BYU?

I believe Pittsburgh & the B12 were in talks before A&M & Missouri left, would they still have left if Pitt & Syracuse were coming in? If so then still replace them with TCU & WV. Add Louisville & BYU for 14. Would ND find a B12 with those 14 schools more enticing? Cincinnati to the ACC to replace Maryland?

What if scenario:

XII loses Colorado to PAC, Nebraska to B1G, and Texas A&M with Missouri to SEC - 8 remain.

XII adds West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Connecticut, TCU, and Houston.

XII East: Connecticut, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Louisville, West Virginia, TCU, Houston
XII West: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Kansas St, Iowa St

At that time, I am not sure 6 teams would have been added let alone 8. I could see FSU, Clemson, Louisville and WVU would have been excellent objectives to take from the BE and ACC.

If the ACC wins out over the B12 to create a P4, I think it will have more to do with poor B12 decision to not let teams in and the ACC jumping on those mistakes to keep FSU and Clemson happy. SYC, PITT, Louisville and ND OOC long term deal seem to have worked okay for the conference. 2023 will be some interesting negotations. I am envisioning another BE type football chaos during the this period. It should make for an interesting summer in 2023.

I agree that it is a ridiculous number, but something the XII could have had which would have given the XII at least some stability. If Texas and Oklahoma left, while that might've hurt pretty bad, the XII would still be a power conference. Today, if OU/UT left, it would not get the agreements in place to remain a power.

I don't think it is an IF. The ACC will win out over the XII. ESPN won't allow it otherwise. Also, North Carolina holds a lot of power and the Southern ACC football schools seem to be content with dominating football and getting high quality bowl bids every year. I imagine the B1G, SEC, and ACC being totally fine with the PAC following as surviving - not in the sense the old Big East or the current XII are "surviving" but surviving as in no gain but no loss either.
07-10-2017 10:22 AM
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RE: Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
Everything I've read says that there was a serious attempt by Kentucky politicians to get Louisville in the spot that ultimately went to West Virginia.

That means that probably at least half of the remaining eight teams (five Big 8 teams, and three SWC teams) thought that Louisville would've been a worthy add to pair with TCU.


So why didn't they just add both?!
07-10-2017 10:25 AM
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OrangeDude Online
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RE: Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
(07-10-2017 10:08 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(07-10-2017 08:35 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  My top three guesses would be.

Louisville
Clemson
FSU

I think the weakest the ACC was when MD decided to bolt, that may have been the perfect chance for the B12 to poach the ACC. By the ACC taking Louisville, Swofford showed the ACC would finally listen to the football schools.

To get from 7 members (when South Carolina left) to 12, the ACC added Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College (at the time thriving in the Big East football). How is that not listening to the football schools? Who else might they have added?

And at the time Maryland left, they were one of the weaker programs in the ACC. Competitively, at least, they weren't a big loss.

Agreed. Was it the ACC's fault that after the 2003 expansion both Miami and FSU went down (at least in terms of their standards) almost immediately afterward?

If one wants to nitpick I suppose instead of BC back in 2003 it could have been WVU - but that is 20-20 hindsight now in terms of what was the root cause - which was the spiral downward of Miami into mediocrity and with FSU taking a step down as well.

Cheers,
Neil
07-10-2017 10:33 AM
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msm96wolf Offline
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RE: Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
(07-10-2017 10:22 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(07-10-2017 09:56 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(07-10-2017 09:19 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(07-10-2017 08:44 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  
(07-10-2017 07:56 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college...ve-forward

It would be interesting to see the list of schools that Bowlsby "could cry over" passing on.

Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Louisville & BYU?

I believe Pittsburgh & the B12 were in talks before A&M & Missouri left, would they still have left if Pitt & Syracuse were coming in? If so then still replace them with TCU & WV. Add Louisville & BYU for 14. Would ND find a B12 with those 14 schools more enticing? Cincinnati to the ACC to replace Maryland?

What if scenario:

XII loses Colorado to PAC, Nebraska to B1G, and Texas A&M with Missouri to SEC - 8 remain.

XII adds West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Connecticut, TCU, and Houston.

XII East: Connecticut, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Louisville, West Virginia, TCU, Houston
XII West: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Kansas St, Iowa St

At that time, I am not sure 6 teams would have been added let alone 8. I could see FSU, Clemson, Louisville and WVU would have been excellent objectives to take from the BE and ACC.

If the ACC wins out over the B12 to create a P4, I think it will have more to do with poor B12 decision to not let teams in and the ACC jumping on those mistakes to keep FSU and Clemson happy. SYC, PITT, Louisville and ND OOC long term deal seem to have worked okay for the conference. 2023 will be some interesting negotations. I am envisioning another BE type football chaos during the this period. It should make for an interesting summer in 2023.

I agree that it is a ridiculous number, but something the XII could have had which would have given the XII at least some stability. If Texas and Oklahoma left, while that might've hurt pretty bad, the XII would still be a power conference. Today, if OU/UT left, it would not get the agreements in place to remain a power.

I don't think it is an IF. The ACC will win out over the XII. ESPN won't allow it otherwise. Also, North Carolina holds a lot of power and the Southern ACC football schools seem to be content with dominating football and getting high quality bowl bids every year. I imagine the B1G, SEC, and ACC being totally fine with the PAC following as surviving - not in the sense the old Big East or the current XII are "surviving" but surviving as in no gain but no loss either.

Well I tend to agree with you, I have learned some posters are touchy on this subject. It was my effort to state it will be between the B12/ACC. If I was betting man, I know which way I bet today. I have to be honest though, at the end of the BCS, not quite sure that would be the horse I would have betted on then. 04-cheers

I don't know why, I just feel Ninja Swofford may acheive his holy grail dream and will retire on that note in 2025. 03-wink
07-10-2017 10:56 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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RE: Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
(07-10-2017 10:25 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Everything I've read says that there was a serious attempt by Kentucky politicians to get Louisville in the spot that ultimately went to West Virginia.

That means that probably at least half of the remaining eight teams (five Big 8 teams, and three SWC teams) thought that Louisville would've been a worthy add to pair with TCU.


So why didn't they just add both?!

To be sure, while I personally believe that the Big 12 should have added Louisville when it had the chance, the fact of the matter is that pretty much every single conference will add only the bare minimum of schools where there is a consensus agreement for expansion. That is, there has never been a situation where "Why don't we just add both?"-type thinking has prevailed. Pretty much every conference would rather add ONLY the school where there is a consensus and then wait on the borderline candidates even a solid candidate that needs another school to come along to provide for even numbers. This ranges from the Big 12 only adding WVU and not include Louisville to the recent decision of the MVC to only add Valpo and not include Murray State. University presidents simply don't think, "Well, we like Murray State almost as much as Valpo, so let's add both even though we don't have a 12th school that we like."
07-10-2017 10:57 AM
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RE: Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
I know you're right. Just as we all know hindsight is 20/20. Probably also has to do with your first post, about them thinking they could poach bigger schools.

Could've still taken Houston + 1 more last year, but as we know the Big 8 schools blocked Houston and Texas blocked any expansion without Houston.
(This post was last modified: 07-10-2017 11:06 AM by MplsBison.)
07-10-2017 11:05 AM
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Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
Texas was bluffing about houston
07-10-2017 11:51 AM
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RE: Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
Dodds destroyed the big 12, pre schools leaving and post schools leaving.
07-10-2017 12:54 PM
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RE: Carlton: Big 12 has found its worst enemy
(07-10-2017 11:51 AM)JHS55 Wrote:  Texas was bluffing about houston

Texas Gov pushed it hard, and I think (wild guess) agreed to get UT Houston greenlit in exchange for U Houston in the Big 12.
07-10-2017 12:57 PM
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