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Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #841
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
I find it hard to believe the Triangle schools would ever permit West Virginia in the ACC. Louisville was already a compromise. To put it in academic standards/USN&WR rankings, Louisville's dumber than Mississippi. West Virginia's dumber than Mississippi State.
02-18-2021 03:02 PM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #842
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(02-18-2021 02:24 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(02-18-2021 02:12 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  
(02-18-2021 12:20 PM)schmolik Wrote:  How about the Big Ten never invites Nebraska knowing they're going to get booted from the AAU. Eventually they do pick off Maryland from the ACC but they're #12 and they don't need Rutgers to even up the conference so the Big Ten is a conference of 12 with two fewer mouths to feed.

Nebraska has to stay in the Big 12 but Texas A&M and Missouri still wind up in the SEC and Colorado in the Pac 12. Down to nine teams and still needing another Texas school, the Big 12 still adds TCU but West Virginia doesn't get invited. The Big 12 has their ten teams but Nebraska is in instead of West Virginia. Nebraska then gets a couple of things they didn't get in the old Big 12, an annual game with Oklahoma and equal first/second tier revenue sharing with Texas and other members in the Big 12 with the opportunity to control their own third tier rights (Husker Sports?)

Meanwhile, Rutgers and West Virginia are stuck in the AAC. Now the ACC after Maryland was taken by the Big Ten could have taken Rutgers instead of Louisville to replace the Terrapins. Rutgers played in bowl games all but one year between 2005 and 2014 so they could've been good enough for the football schools that didn't want UConn as well and a better academic alternative to Louisville for Boston College. They sucked in men's basketball. But they were way better academically than Louisville and were actually "Atlantic" and could've given the ACC a presence in the New York metropolitan area. Maybe it's Louisville who's screwed instead of Rutgers. Or if Rutgers winds up in the ACC, the Big 12 decides to go for West Virginia and Louisville to bring the Big 12 to 12 members.

If Maryland is #12 to the BIG and the ACC has to choose #14 from Louisville, WVU, Rutgers or UConn, then the ACC dynamics are more complex.

First, the core VA/NC group is not coalescing around UConn...Rutgers becomes their candidate. They’d promote the TV market and fertile recruiting in NJ; they’d probably get some ESPN insights about the potential of the NYC to DC corridor. Basically, the core ACC would be using the same marketing campaign that the BIG used when actually selecting Rutgers in 2011.

The football schools (led by FSU and Clemson) are pushing either Louisville or West Virginia. Given the long history with Pitt, VT and Syracuse, I would imagine that West Virginia emerges as the football-first preference. Because the B12 is courting FSU (and possibly Clemson) with greater payouts, the football schools have the initial advantage.

To break the impasse, the ACC core agrees to restructure division alignment as follows (in order of cross division rivals):
Atlantic - FSU, Clemson, NC State, Wake, Va Tech, Pitt and Syracuse
Coastal - Miami, Ga Tech, UNC, Duke, UVA, Rutgers and BC
They can rebrand the divisions as East (Coastal) and West (Atlantic).

In this implausible scenario, Louisville and West Virginia get picked immediately by the B12...after FSU decides to stay. The same P5 schools remain, but in different conferences.

I tend to think that WVU would win the day, not Rutgers. The football schools wanted a football pick and if we are to presume that all of the schools who backed UConn are Rutgers votes, and all the Louisville supporters are pushing WVU, then the same faction wins this scenario.

IMO it’s a close call.

The difference comes from the Rutgers v UConn comparison. Rutgers is a larger university and an AAU member; that gets stronger support from the academics. NJ has better demographics than CT; more people (more potential students), closer to the core ACC markets. NJ has more potential recruits and $$$.

The football faction definitely has the upper hand in the decision-making process. The core was shaken by Maryland leaving. But that is why the compromise is made. Divisional realignment addresses some of FSU’s concerns with ACC decision-making. There aren’t enough recruits in New England nor New York, so Syracuse and BC are split. Football schools want more passionate fans that will travel, so VT shifts over.
02-18-2021 04:01 PM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #843
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(02-18-2021 03:02 PM)schmolik Wrote:  I find it hard to believe the Triangle schools would ever permit West Virginia in the ACC. Louisville was already a compromise. To put it in academic standards/USN&WR rankings, Louisville's dumber than Mississippi. West Virginia's dumber than Mississippi State.

Stop using terms such as “dumber” to describe universities. It’s not right. Universities are neither smart nor dumb. The academic missions of universities can differ greatly and we’re really discussing sports.

If you are comparing academics, the terms selective or prestigious are more appropriate.
(This post was last modified: 02-18-2021 04:21 PM by Wahoowa84.)
02-18-2021 04:18 PM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #844
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
Is basketball really of no concern to the ACC at all? UConn won a national championship in 2011. Louisville had Rick Pitino. But UNC and Duke would rather have a team that hasn't even made the NCAA Tournament since 1991 (and still hasn't)? And yeah let's not take Louisville, West Virginia's better. And you wonder why the Big Ten's better than the ACC in basketball these days.
02-18-2021 04:18 PM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #845
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(02-18-2021 04:18 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Is basketball really of no concern to the ACC at all? UConn won a national championship in 2011. Louisville had Rick Pitino. But UNC and Duke would rather have a team that hasn't even made the NCAA Tournament since 1991 (and still hasn't)? And yeah let's not take Louisville, West Virginia's better. And you wonder why the Big Ten's better than the ACC in basketball these days.

Championships are nice, but what drives expansion is $$$$$.

UConn has 4 men’s championships and countless women’s championships. If you need to root for a good basketball school, UConn is it.

On the other hand, Rutgers is in New Jersey. The state has 9 million residents (CT has 3.5M) and 9 blue chips in the next recruiting cycle (CT has no blue chip recruits). If a conference member needs out of state students and star athletes, New Jersey is fertile territory. If Rutgers ever gets good at sports, they would be extremely valuable.
02-18-2021 06:06 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #846
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(02-18-2021 04:18 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  
(02-18-2021 03:02 PM)schmolik Wrote:  I find it hard to believe the Triangle schools would ever permit West Virginia in the ACC. Louisville was already a compromise. To put it in academic standards/USN&WR rankings, Louisville's dumber than Mississippi. West Virginia's dumber than Mississippi State.

Stop using terms such as “dumber” to describe universities. It’s not right. Universities are neither smart nor dumb. The academic missions of universities can differ greatly and we’re really discussing sports.

If you are comparing academics, the terms selective or prestigious are more appropriate.

You are spot on. It’s an insult to call a school dumb or dumber. Selective or prestigious are the appropriate terms.
02-18-2021 09:35 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #847
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(02-18-2021 04:18 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Is basketball really of no concern to the ACC at all? UConn won a national championship in 2011. Louisville had Rick Pitino. But UNC and Duke would rather have a team that hasn't even made the NCAA Tournament since 1991 (and still hasn't)? And yeah let's not take Louisville, West Virginia's better. And you wonder why the Big Ten's better than the ACC in basketball these days.

What?!?! I can’t hear you behind all those Big Ten national championship banners!!!
02-18-2021 09:55 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #848
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(02-18-2021 09:55 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(02-18-2021 04:18 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Is basketball really of no concern to the ACC at all? UConn won a national championship in 2011. Louisville had Rick Pitino. But UNC and Duke would rather have a team that hasn't even made the NCAA Tournament since 1991 (and still hasn't)? And yeah let's not take Louisville, West Virginia's better. And you wonder why the Big Ten's better than the ACC in basketball these days.

What?!?! I can’t hear you behind all those Big Ten national championship banners!!!

03-lmfao
Now, that's funny!!
02-19-2021 06:01 AM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #849
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
I’m going to throw out a radical concept I don’t think we’ve ever played around with.

I’m not sure how high school sports are organized in your states but here in Ohio it’s quite common for a conference to have a “Big School” and “Small School” division. Some of the really big ones will be divided into small, medium, and large and still others might fall along the lines of Big Schools North, Big Schools, South, Small Schools North, and Small Schools South.

There isn’t necessarily much crossover play or any among the divisions. There’s also some wiggle room I’d say one school district has a population boom they might move from the Small School to the Big School division without having to leave their conference.

I wonder if something like this might have worked back in the 80s in the East:

Little School Division: Army, Navy, Temple, Rutgers, Villanova, UConn

Big School Division: Penn St, Pitt, WVU, Syracuse, BC, ND
(This post was last modified: 02-20-2021 02:46 PM by Fighting Muskie.)
02-20-2021 02:42 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #850
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
Throwing this out here in this thread too. I’m trying to get together a group of posters to participate a war game scenario where we start with the 1989 alignment and weigh alternatives.

PM me if you’re interested. I’d like to get at least one person who’d advocate for:

Big 10
SEC
Big 8
SWC
PAC 10
ACC
Eastern Independents
Southern Independents
02-23-2021 11:14 AM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #851
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(02-18-2021 06:06 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  
(02-18-2021 04:18 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Is basketball really of no concern to the ACC at all? UConn won a national championship in 2011. Louisville had Rick Pitino. But UNC and Duke would rather have a team that hasn't even made the NCAA Tournament since 1991 (and still hasn't)? And yeah let's not take Louisville, West Virginia's better. And you wonder why the Big Ten's better than the ACC in basketball these days.

Championships are nice, but what drives expansion is $$$$$.

UConn has 4 men’s championships and countless women’s championships. If you need to root for a good basketball school, UConn is it.

On the other hand, Rutgers is in New Jersey. The state has 9 million residents (CT has 3.5M) and 9 blue chips in the next recruiting cycle (CT has no blue chip recruits). If a conference member needs out of state students and star athletes, New Jersey is fertile territory. If Rutgers ever gets good at sports, they would be extremely valuable.

If the ACC got Rutgers to replace Maryland (instead of Louisville), I think the ACC has greater incentive and support to plant a flag in NYC. Between the additions of Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame and Rutgers, along with Boston College already, as well as alumni numbers in the NYC area, I think they make a greater push to steal MSG from the BE, or having more frequent tournaments at Barclays in Brooklyn.

However, I know that MSG likes the Big East because they can commit every year there for the tournament, which was why their deal was extended. The B1G and ACC can only commit to MSG on a semi-rotational basis. The B1G will never move fully away from Chicago/Indianapolis and the ACC will never fully move away from Greensboro/Charlotte.
02-23-2021 12:36 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #852
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(02-23-2021 12:36 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(02-18-2021 06:06 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  
(02-18-2021 04:18 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Is basketball really of no concern to the ACC at all? UConn won a national championship in 2011. Louisville had Rick Pitino. But UNC and Duke would rather have a team that hasn't even made the NCAA Tournament since 1991 (and still hasn't)? And yeah let's not take Louisville, West Virginia's better. And you wonder why the Big Ten's better than the ACC in basketball these days.

Championships are nice, but what drives expansion is $$$$$.

UConn has 4 men’s championships and countless women’s championships. If you need to root for a good basketball school, UConn is it.

On the other hand, Rutgers is in New Jersey. The state has 9 million residents (CT has 3.5M) and 9 blue chips in the next recruiting cycle (CT has no blue chip recruits). If a conference member needs out of state students and star athletes, New Jersey is fertile territory. If Rutgers ever gets good at sports, they would be extremely valuable.

If the ACC got Rutgers to replace Maryland (instead of Louisville), I think the ACC has greater incentive and support to plant a flag in NYC. Between the additions of Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame and Rutgers, along with Boston College already, as well as alumni numbers in the NYC area, I think they make a greater push to steal MSG from the BE, or having more frequent tournaments at Barclays in Brooklyn.

However, I know that MSG likes the Big East because they can commit every year there for the tournament, which was why their deal was extended. The B1G and ACC can only commit to MSG on a semi-rotational basis. The B1G will never move fully away from Chicago/Indianapolis and the ACC will never fully move away from Greensboro/Charlotte.

If Rutgers replaced Maryland, I think the XII does get back to 12 with Louisville and Cincinnati. The B1G gets to 14 with either Missouri and Kansas. I think they get Missouri to move from the SEC since their tenure there had only been a year or two (no chance today). The SEC looks to TCU. XII backfills with Houston.
02-23-2021 01:31 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
Don’t forget that Maryland and Rutgers were invited to the Big 10 at virtually the same time. The ACC never had a chance to slot them in Maryland’s spot.

By the time Maryland was gone the options from the 05-12 BE were:

Louisville
UConn
Cincinnati
USF
02-23-2021 01:54 PM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #854
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(02-23-2021 01:54 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Don’t forget that Maryland and Rutgers were invited to the Big 10 at virtually the same time. The ACC never had a chance to slot them in Maryland’s spot.

By the time Maryland was gone the options from the 05-12 BE were:

Louisville
UConn
Cincinnati
USF

In my scenario, Nebraska was never invited so the Big Ten only had one spot and not two to fill so Rutgers is not invited along with Maryland. So Rutgers is an option for the ACC along with the others above. In the real world, the Big Ten wanted Maryland and needed an "evener" so with Pittsburgh and Syracuse off the board the Big Ten had to choose between Buttgers and the choices above. Had they been smarter, they could have gotten Pittsburgh or Syracuse instead before the ACC did.
02-23-2021 02:32 PM
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