Nerdlinger
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RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(01-23-2018 06:18 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote: (09-01-2017 01:33 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote: Suppose that a more forward-thinking Big 12 had been able to convince the NCAA to drop the 12-school minimum for a conference championship in late 2011, by which point the conference had settled on 10 schools. I imagine that one major consequence of this is that the non-power conferences wouldn't have been so keen on reaching 12. While the P5 would likely have proceeded with expansion as in our timeline, I would guess that 8 or 10 football schools would probably be the target for rest of the conferences. This means that the WAC could possibly have survived as a football conference, although only barely. A potential G6 alignment by 2017:
American: Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, Navy (FB only), SMU, Temple, Tulane, UCF, UConn, USF
C-USA: Charlotte, ECU, FIU, Marshall, North Texas, Rice, Southern Miss, Tulsa, UAB, UTEP
MWC: Air Force, Boise, CSU, Fresno, Hawaii (FB only), Nevada, New Mexico, SDSU, UNLV, Wyoming
Sun Belt: Arkansas State, FAU, MTSU, South Alabama, Troy, ULL, ULM, WKU
WAC: Idaho, La Tech, NMSU, SJSU, Texas State, Utah State, UTSA, (someone else?)
The MAC is the same as in our timeline.
Basically, the old Big East/American declines to invite ECU and Tulsa. So those two stick with C-USA, who in turn isn't as inclined to overexpand and so only takes FIU and North Texas from the Sun Belt. (UAB drops and readds football as in our timeline.) Similarly, the MWC doesn't pick off SJSU or USU from the WAC. The Sun Belt restocks to the 8-school minimum by adding USA. This leaves the WAC with just 7 football schools after adding Texas State and UTSA, so perhaps they'd add an FCS team to make eight. The MAC's 12 full members had all been in the conference since before the turn of the century. UMass had already been set as of April 2011 to join as a football affiliate, but they part ways with the MAC in just a few years as in our timeline. ODU, App State, GA Southern, GSU, and CCU remain in the FCS without an FBS conference invite.
This topic was broached in another thread just recently, but I didn't want to hijack that thread, so I thought I'd revive this one.
Here's a revised version of the "CCG deregulation in 2011" scenario. Georgia State was invited by the Sun Belt earlier than I had thought. I also neglected to take into account non-football members of the conferences.
The FBS as of 2018 in this alternate timeline (in parentheses = full members/non-FB members/FB-only members):
American (9/1/1)
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, South Florida, Temple
West: Houston, Memphis, Navy* (Patriot), SMU, Tulane
NFB: Wichita State
CUSA (10/0/0)
East: Charlotte, East Carolina, FIU, Marshall, UAB
West: North Texas, Rice, Southern Miss, Tulsa, UTEP
MWC (9/1/1)
Mountain: Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Wyoming
West: Fresno State, Hawaii* (Big West), Nevada, San Diego State, UNLV
NFB: Gonzaga
Sun Belt (9/1/1)
East: Appalachian State* (SoCon), FAU, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Troy
NFB: Little Rock
WAC (7/3/0)
FB: Idaho, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, San Jose State, Texas State, Utah State, UTSA
NFB: Denver, Seattle, Texas-Arlington
FBS Ind
Army* (Patriot), BYU* (WCC), Liberty* (ASUN), Massachusetts* (A-10), Notre Dame* (ACC)
* = football only (primary conference)
The MAC and P5 conferences are the same as in our timeline. CCU, Georgia Southern, and ODU are still in the FCS. Note that Gonzaga has joined the MWC here, balancing out Hawaii. With only 7 football schools, the WAC receives an NCAA waiver to remain an FBS conference, which the other conferences accept in exchange for the WAC taking a smaller cut of the CFP money. Since WAC football survives, Idaho sticks around in the FBS. Liberty buys their way into the FBS, as is their wont.
It was correctly noted in a recent thread that when the MWC added USU and SJSU, it was to reach 10 football schools rather than 12, as Boise and SDSU were still destined for the Big East at the time. So I imagine that like the MAC, the MWC would have ended up the same as in our timeline even in this scenario. Therefore, it is unlikely that the WAC would have had enough football schools to remain an FBS conference.
It was also noted that CUSA specifically aimed for greater than 12 schools because it perceived that a large inventory would be valuable. Since the CFP payout arrangement that treated all G5 conferences equally regardless of size hadn't yet been established, I see it as plausible that CUSA would have still sought more schools than necessary.
The FBS as of 2020 in this alternate timeline (in parentheses = full members/non-FB members/FB-only members):
American (8/1/1)
FB: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, Navy* (Patriot), SMU, South Florida, Temple, Tulane
NFB: Wichita State
CUSA (12/0/0)
East: Charlotte, East Carolina, FIU, Marshall, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Rice, Tulsa, UTEP, UTSA
Sun Belt (10/2/0)
East: FAU, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky, Troy
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Texas State
NFB: Little Rock, Texas-Arlington
FBS Ind
Army* (Patriot), BYU* (WCC), Connecticut* (Big East), Liberty* (A-Sun), Massachusetts* (A-10), New Mexico State* (WAC), Notre Dame* (ACC)
* = football only (primary conference)
All other conferences are the same as in our timeline. Since the AAC didn't add ECU and Tulsa, the later departure of UConn to the Big East leaves them with 9 football schools, permitting an 8-game round-robin conference schedule.
Overall, not tremendously different than our timeline. ECU and Tulsa are in CUSA instead of the AAC. FAU, MTSU, and WKU are in the Sun Belt instead of CUSA. And App State, CCU, Georgia Southern, and ODU are still in the FCS.
(This post was last modified: 09-22-2019 01:19 PM by Nerdlinger.)
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