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Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
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Underdog Offline
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Post: #221
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-19-2017 03:50 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(08-19-2017 03:04 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  So if the Pac's gambit in 2010 to gut the Big 12 actually succeeded, how would everything have gone down? I'm guessing that CU and the Texoma 4 (OU/OSU/UT/TT) wouldn't move until 2012. This would allow time for the other Big 12 schools to make arrangements with other conferences and permit the Big 12 to dissolve itself without anyone paying exit fees. This might also have delayed the departure of NU until 2012, but I'm not sure about that. Missouri and Texas A&M are picked up by the SEC in 2012 as actually occurred, while Baylor, ISU, KU, and KSU join the Big East.

I doubt that the Big East's expansion would slow the decline of the conference. If anything, I think adding such far-flung schools of dubious value (besides KU) would accelerate the decline. TCU was scheduled to join the Big East in 2012, but that would put the conference at 13 football members. Perhaps TCU's entrance would be delayed? I believe Pitt and Syracuse would still have left for the ACC in 2013, which was the more stable of the two major east coast conferences at the time. TCU joins in 2013 to keep the conference at 12 football members. Here the Big East is not as desperate to add schools as they were in our timeline, so Boise and SDSU don't receive an invite, while of the C-USA schools, only Houston is invited.

I think ND is given the same deal by the ACC as they actually were and so departs in 2013 too. Rutgers will leave for the Big Ten in 2014. Maryland is still going to be poached by the Big Ten, so the ACC is still going to seek a replacement, and Louisville is still likely to be that replacement. WVU is technically up for grabs too, but their academics are worse than Louisville. Would there be a split between the Catholic 7 and the football schools? I really don't know, though I'm inclined to say yes. They will take the Big East name, while the football schools might possibly pick up the discarded but valuable Big 12 name. In 2014, Louisville and Rutgers are replaced by UCF and Navy, the latter of which joins a year earlier than scheduled in reality.

Another question is does the Big East/Big 12 retain its "power" status with the advent of the CFP? My guess is that the conference is no longer considered a power, as it's not all that much better off than the American in our timeline.

The evolution of the (old) Big East/(new) Big 12:

2011 Big East
FB: Cincinnati, Louisville, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, UConn, USF, WVU
NFB: DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova

2012 Big East
FB (East): Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, UConn, USF, WVU
FB (West): Baylor, Cincinnati, ISU, Kansas, KSU, Louisville
NFB: DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova

2013 Big 12
East: Cincinnati, Louisville, Rutgers, UConn, USF, WVU
West: Baylor, Houston, ISU, Kansas, KSU, TCU

2014 Big 12
East: Cincinnati, ISU, UCF, UConn, USF, WVU
West: Baylor, Houston, Kansas, KSU, Navy (FB only), TCU

I wonder how C-USA would replace UCF and Houston. They haven't been raided as extensively as in our timeline, so there is less need to add as many schools as possible. Perhaps this decreased desperation would lead them to stay put at 10. I suppose they could add FAU and/or FIU to get back into Florida.

Any thoughts?

Regarding this scenario I explored earlier: Suppose after the Texoma 4 go to the Pac, it is the Big 12 remnant (Baylor, ISU, KU, KSU) that absorbs the Big East instead of vice versa. The difference may be semantic, since I don't think the football membership would have been much different, if at all, from the above. However, it would likely have resulted in an earlier separation of the Big East non-FB schools (in 2012 rather than 2013). Would that have caused schools like UConn to hesitate more about leaving behind their Big East basketball buddies?

Also, you might think that a rebuilding Big 12 would take schools from the MWC. However, with the Big East adds, the conference would be centered more in the central/eastern US, so I don't think this would have been likely.


We already discussed in another thread about the B12 absorbing the Big East. However, the Big East initially considered merging with the B12. The following is former WV AD Luck’s pan:

[Image: Screen_Shot_2014-06-11_at_1.45.11_PM.0.png]

"Luck's plan, which also had the support of Louisville athletic director Tom Jurich, was also to add UCF for a 12-team Big East divided into two divisions: West: Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU and Louisville; East: UConn, Cincinnati, Rutgers, West Virginia, South Florida and UCF."

https://www.sbnation.com/college-footbal...ealignment

I think the B12 would have likely absorbed the remaining Big East football schools because the C7 wouldn’t have given up “The Big East” name. Pitt and Cuse still go to the ACC. The interesting question is: Does the ACC take Louisville or WV to replace Maryland? I think WV was perceived as the better football program at the time, but Louisville had a lot to offer. Nonetheless, I think the ACC would’ve taken WV.

The Rebuilt B12 (expands to 14):

West: *Air Force, Baylor, Houston, KU, KSU, ISU, TCU

East: *Navy, Louisville, Temple, UConn, UC, UCF, USF

*The B12 wanted Air Force back then, and the Big East wanted Navy (Army and Air Force).

I don’t think BYU is invited because the conference wouldn’t want a similar LHN problem….
(This post was last modified: 11-21-2017 04:35 PM by Underdog.)
11-21-2017 04:12 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #222
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-21-2017 04:12 PM)Underdog Wrote:  We already discussed in another thread about the B12 absorbing the Big East. However, the Big East initially considered merging with the B12. The following is former WV AD Luck’s pan:

[Image: Screen_Shot_2014-06-11_at_1.45.11_PM.0.png]

"Luck's plan, which also had the support of Louisville athletic director Tom Jurich, was also to add UCF for a 12-team Big East divided into two divisions: West: Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU and Louisville; East: UConn, Cincinnati, Rutgers, West Virginia, South Florida and UCF."

https://www.sbnation.com/college-footbal...ealignment

I think the B12 would have likely absorbed the remaining Big East football schools because the C7 wouldn’t have given up “The Big East” name. Pitt and Cuse still go to the ACC. The interesting question is: Does the ACC take Louisville or WV to replace Maryland? I think WV was perceived as the better football program at the time, but Louisville had a lot to offer. Nonetheless, I think the ACC would’ve taken WV.

The Rebuilt B12 (expands to 14):

West: *Air Force, Baylor, Houston, KU, KSU, ISU, TCU

East: *Navy, Louisville, Temple, UConn, UC, UCF, USF

*The B12 wanted Air Force back then, and the Big East wanted Navy (Army and Air Force).

I don’t think BYU is invited because the conference wouldn’t want a similar LHN problem….

Interesting article! Thanks for linking. I suppose it matters whether it's the Big 12 absorbing the Big East football schools or the other way around because of the exit fees for either conference. I'm not sure how it would go down from a legal perspective, but ultimately you'd have a football-sponsoring conference called the Big 12 and a non-football conference called the Big East.

The Big 12 may have wanted Air Force, but I think the ex-Big East members would have vetoed that due to the travel distance. Navy would have been more acceptable, as it's a bigger score for the conference and is already within the expanded footprint.

I'm skeptical that they go for Temple. In our timeline, the Big East only resorted to bringing back the Owls because WV's departure left them with only 7 football schools for 2012 and Temple was available to fill the vacancy. The Big East had actually already invited Houston, SMU, UCF, and Memphis to join for 2013 and Navy for 2015. In any case, for the alternate Big 12, expanding beyond 12 members wouldn't benefit them much due to the CFP payout system.

Also, even if WV is available for the ACC to replace UMD, I still think they go with Louisville. Both are not up to the ACC's academic standards, but Louisville brings a bigger metro, and WV's low admissions standards scare other schools' athletic recruiters.
(This post was last modified: 11-21-2017 06:57 PM by Nerdlinger.)
11-21-2017 06:56 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #223
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
Here's a possible alternate timeline for a Pac-16 scenario:

2011
Colorado from Big 12 to Pac-12
Nebraska from Big 12 to Big Ten
Utah from MWC to Pac-12

2012
Central Florida from C-USA to Big 12
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Rutgers, South Florida, West Virginia from Big East to Big 12
Missouri, Texas A&M from Big 12 to SEC
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech from Big 12 to Pac-16
Pittsburgh, Syracuse from Big East to ACC
TCU from MWC to Big 12

Big 12
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Rutgers, South Florida, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, TCU

2013
Butler (NFB), Xavier (NFB) from A-10 to Big East
Creighton (NFB) from MVC to Big East
Notre Dame (NFB) from Big East to ACC

2014
Houston from C-USA to Big 12
Louisville from Big 12 to ACC
Maryland from ACC to Big Ten
Navy (FB) from FBS Ind to Big 12
Rutgers from Big 12 to Big Ten

~~~~~~

FBS 2018

Same as in our timeline: ACC, Big Ten, SEC, MWC

Pac-16
East Pod: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
North Pod: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South Pod: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West Pod: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC
(pods alternate biennially between Northeast/Southwest and Northwest/Southeast Divisions)

Big 12
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Iowa State, South Florida, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Houston, Kansas, Kansas State, Navy* (Patriot), TCU

C-USA
East: Charlotte, East Carolina, FIU, Marshall, Memphis, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Louisiana Tech, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP, UTSA

MAC
East: Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Massachusetts* (A-10), Miami-OH, Ohio, Temple* (A-10)
West: Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan

Sun Belt
East: FAU, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, South Alabama, Troy, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State* (WAC), North Texas, Texas State
Non-FB: Little Rock

FBS Ind
Army* (Patriot), BYU* (WCC), Liberty* (ASUN), Notre Dame* (ACC)

* = football only (primary conference)
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2018 10:41 AM by Nerdlinger.)
11-22-2017 11:52 AM
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Post: #224
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-20-2017 01:05 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  What if the OG BE FB conference wasn't associated with the Big East and formed their own 12 team conference in like 1989-90 with the eastern indies at the time?

North- PSU, Pitt, Temple, Cuse, Rutgers, BC

South- Miami, FSU, USC, ECU, VT, WVU

Thats a strong eastern FB conference.

I love this alignment.

My next question: is it strong enough to survive raids from the SEC, ACC, and Big Ten?

Miami and Florida St are strong anchors for the southern division. I think South Carolina would weigh their options and pick the Eastern League over the SEC. Virginia Tech I believe would reach the same conclusion about the ACC, finding themselves in a stronger conference than their I stare rival.

In the North, Penn St would have to convince BC and Syracuse that this league was better for them than Big East basketball. If they were successful Penn St would have to weigh the lure of Big Ten membership with being in a conference with blue blood Florida schools. It's a tough call. (If they do lose Penn St I think the southern wing shifts WVU north and reels in an ACC school to fill the void).

This league, if it could hold together, would have the means to raid the ACC.

My guess is that if they hold together, in 1991 the SEC grabs Clemson instead of South Carolina.

The fate is of the rest of the ACC is hazy. The Eastern League would be pretty full at 12. The top Eastern League schools at that point would probably prefer to dump their weaker members--ECU, Rutgers, and Temple, for ACC schools but I don't know how they'd pull that off.
11-22-2017 12:48 PM
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Post: #225
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-22-2017 12:48 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(11-20-2017 01:05 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  What if the OG BE FB conference wasn't associated with the Big East and formed their own 12 team conference in like 1989-90 with the eastern indies at the time?

North- PSU, Pitt, Temple, Cuse, Rutgers, BC

South- Miami, FSU, USC, ECU, VT, WVU

Thats a strong eastern FB conference.

I love this alignment.

My next question: is it strong enough to survive raids from the SEC, ACC, and Big Ten?

Miami and Florida St are strong anchors for the southern division. I think South Carolina would weigh their options and pick the Eastern League over the SEC. Virginia Tech I believe would reach the same conclusion about the ACC, finding themselves in a stronger conference than their I stare rival.

In the North, Penn St would have to convince BC and Syracuse that this league was better for them than Big East basketball. If they were successful Penn St would have to weigh the lure of Big Ten membership with being in a conference with blue blood Florida schools. It's a tough call. (If they do lose Penn St I think the southern wing shifts WVU north and reels in an ACC school to fill the void).

This league, if it could hold together, would have the means to raid the ACC.

My guess is that if they hold together, in 1991 the SEC grabs Clemson instead of South Carolina.

The fate is of the rest of the ACC is hazy. The Eastern League would be pretty full at 12. The top Eastern League schools at that point would probably prefer to dump their weaker members--ECU, Rutgers, and Temple, for ACC schools but I don't know how they'd pull that off.

If FSU and Clemson aren't in the ACC, who would leave and who would this Eastern League be able to pull in? Remember you're looking at the FSU and the 8 dwarves era of ACC football.

Rutgers and Temple were weak in the late 90s but ECU wasn't. PSU wouldn't want to lose Rutgers and Temple (most likely) and Temple basketball would bring quality to the hoops side of the fence. The Eastern league jettisoning those 3 isn't a foregone conclusion by any means.

Temple's expulsion from the Big East was a unique set of circumstances and probably wouldn't have happened if their school president didn't force the issue.
11-22-2017 02:50 PM
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Post: #226
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
Megadrone-

Let's say it's 1991 and the Eastern League sits at:

North: BC, Syracuse, Rutgers, Temple, Pitt, Penn St
South: WVU, VT, ECU, South Carolina, Florida St, Miami

The ACC is down to 7 after Clemson bolts to the SEC:

Maryland, UVA, UNC, NC St, Duke, WF, GT

The ACC is left in a tight spot. Back then I don't think anyone was brave enou to try 14 or 16. The ACC certainly has some schools in their camp that are more attractive than some of the Eatern League schools but there's no room to add them. Maybe we would have seen a bigger conference sooner. Maybe there is a merger of sorts where the best Eastern League withdraw and grab some ACC schools and reform.
11-22-2017 03:12 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #227
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
Bear in mind that after the alternate timeline diverges from ours, it's quite possible that teams would perform increasingly different from the way they did in reality. Even Rutgers could become a football powerhouse -- who knows?
(This post was last modified: 11-22-2017 03:59 PM by Nerdlinger.)
11-22-2017 03:59 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #228
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-22-2017 03:12 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Megadrone-

Let's say it's 1991 and the Eastern League sits at:

North: BC, Syracuse, Rutgers, Temple, Pitt, Penn St
South: WVU, VT, ECU, South Carolina, Florida St, Miami

The ACC is down to 7 after Clemson bolts to the SEC:

Maryland, UVA, UNC, NC St, Duke, WF, GT

The ACC is left in a tight spot. Back then I don't think anyone was brave enou to try 14 or 16. The ACC certainly has some schools in their camp that are more attractive than some of the Eatern League schools but there's no room to add them. Maybe we would have seen a bigger conference sooner. Maybe there is a merger of sorts where the best Eastern League withdraw and grab some ACC schools and reform.

Well, the 16-team Metro Conference was apparently very close to becoming a reality.

Suppose that instead of the Big East adding football schools, the ACC picks them up instead. They admit FSU and Miami as full members while inviting BC, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, VT, and WV as football affiliates. So by 1991, we have:

ACC Football
North: BC, UMD, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, UVA, VT, WV
South: Clemson, Duke, FSU, GT, Miami, UNC, NCSU, WF

ACC Non-football: Clemson, Duke, FSU, GT, UMD, Miami, UNC, NCSU, UVA, WF

BC, Pitt, and Syracuse keep their non-FB sports in the BE, at least initially. The ACC might add some of the FB affiliates as full members over time, like the BE did. The ACC's enhanced profile could very well compel Notre Dame to join the ACC as a non-football member in the '90s rather than the Big East, but I dunno.

~~~~~~

As a bonus, a potential present-day alignment for the above scenario:

ACC
North: Boston College, Maryland, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
South: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Protected crossover: North Carolina/Virginia

Big Ten
East: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue
West: Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Protected crossover: Illinois/Northwestern

Pac-16
East: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado State, Houston, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Utah
West: California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State

SEC
Eastern: Alabama, Auburn, Cincinnati, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee
Western: Arkansas, Kansas State, LSU, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt
Protected crossover: Tennessee/Vanderbilt

Notable annual interconference matchups: Clemson/South Carolina, Colorado/Colorado State, Florida/Florida State, Georgia/Georgia Tech, Kansas/Kansas State, Notre Dame/USC, Oklahoma/Texas, Penn State/Pittsburgh
(This post was last modified: 11-23-2017 02:15 PM by Nerdlinger.)
11-23-2017 01:10 PM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #229
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
Here is an alternate history scenario:

The United States Supreme Court rules differently in 1984. The NCAA remains in control of television broadcasting of college football.

The conferences and schools don't get their TV rights. Many of the independents like FSU, Penn State, Pitt, etc...stay independent.

Conferences remain small, eight member regional entities. "College Realignment" never happens. Wouldn't that be great?
11-23-2017 02:11 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #230
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-23-2017 02:11 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Here is an alternate history scenario:

The United States Supreme Court rules differently in 1984. The NCAA remains in control of television broadcasting of college football.

The conferences and schools don't get their TV rights. Many of the independents like FSU, Penn State, Pitt, etc...stay independent.

Conferences remain small, eight member regional entities. "College Realignment" never happens. Wouldn't that be great?

Sure, if that's what you're into. But if you don't like realignment, why do you frequent this forum?
11-23-2017 02:16 PM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #231
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-23-2017 02:16 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(11-23-2017 02:11 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Here is an alternate history scenario:

The United States Supreme Court rules differently in 1984. The NCAA remains in control of television broadcasting of college football.

The conferences and schools don't get their TV rights. Many of the independents like FSU, Penn State, Pitt, etc...stay independent.

Conferences remain small, eight member regional entities. "College Realignment" never happens. Wouldn't that be great?

Sure, if that's what you're into. But if you don't like realignment, why do you frequent this forum?

No, I don't like realignment or even the very idea of conferences themselves.

I used to follow "realignment" when it was uncertain whether ND would escape the clutches of that evil Jim Delany and the Big Ten. The ACC Network announcement and the GOR extension through 2036 settled that. After that, I had no further interest in realignment.

But...this is called the "College Sports and Conference Realignment" board. So, I frequent this forum for "college sports" info and discussion.

Plus, I have been here for many, many years, from when the old Big East board was in existence, way back when.

Sorry, I thought this thread was open to all fantasy scenarios. Happy Thanksgiving!!
(This post was last modified: 11-23-2017 02:33 PM by TerryD.)
11-23-2017 02:22 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #232
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-23-2017 02:22 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(11-23-2017 02:16 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(11-23-2017 02:11 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Here is an alternate history scenario:

The United States Supreme Court rules differently in 1984. The NCAA remains in control of television broadcasting of college football.

The conferences and schools don't get their TV rights. Many of the independents like FSU, Penn State, Pitt, etc...stay independent.

Conferences remain small, eight member regional entities. "College Realignment" never happens. Wouldn't that be great?

Sure, if that's what you're into. But if you don't like realignment, why do you frequent this forum?

No, I don't like realignment or even the very idea of conferences.

But...this is called the "College Sports and Conference Realignment" board. So, I frequent this forum for "college sports".

Plus, I have been here for many, many years, from when the old Big East board was in existence, way back when.

Sorry, I thought this thread was open to all fantasy scenarios. Happy Thanksgiving!!

It's an interesting scenario. I was just remarking on the comment. Quite a few conferences already had over 8 members by then. Would they have been forced to cut down? That seems unlikely, but now I'm wondering who would be axed if they had to. My guesses:

Big Ten: Northwestern, Purdue
MAC (10): Eastern Michigan?, Northern Illinois (they left in '86 anyway)
Pac-10: Oregon State, Washington State
SEC (10): Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
SWC (9): ? (Arkansas wanted out, but I imagine the conference would have preferred them over most of the private Texas schools)
WAC (9): UTEP or Hawaii?

You have a nice Thanksgiving too.
11-23-2017 02:37 PM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #233
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-23-2017 02:37 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(11-23-2017 02:22 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(11-23-2017 02:16 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(11-23-2017 02:11 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Here is an alternate history scenario:

The United States Supreme Court rules differently in 1984. The NCAA remains in control of television broadcasting of college football.

The conferences and schools don't get their TV rights. Many of the independents like FSU, Penn State, Pitt, etc...stay independent.

Conferences remain small, eight member regional entities. "College Realignment" never happens. Wouldn't that be great?

Sure, if that's what you're into. But if you don't like realignment, why do you frequent this forum?

No, I don't like realignment or even the very idea of conferences.

But...this is called the "College Sports and Conference Realignment" board. So, I frequent this forum for "college sports".

Plus, I have been here for many, many years, from when the old Big East board was in existence, way back when.

Sorry, I thought this thread was open to all fantasy scenarios. Happy Thanksgiving!!

It's an interesting scenario. I was just remarking on the comment. Quite a few conferences already had over 8 members by then. Would they have been forced to cut down? That seems unlikely, but now I'm wondering who would be axed if they had to. My guesses:

Big Ten: Northwestern, Purdue
MAC (10): Eastern Michigan?, Northern Illinois (they left in '86 anyway)
Pac-10: Oregon State, Washington State
SEC (10): Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
SWC (9): ? (Arkansas wanted out, but I imagine the conference would have preferred them over most of the private Texas schools)
WAC (9): UTEP or Hawaii?

You have a nice Thanksgiving too.

Like I said, I never paid attention to conferences the past fifty some years or so.

Eight or ten? Ok......Either way.
11-23-2017 03:10 PM
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Post: #234
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-23-2017 01:10 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(11-22-2017 03:12 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Megadrone-

Let's say it's 1991 and the Eastern League sits at:

North: BC, Syracuse, Rutgers, Temple, Pitt, Penn St
South: WVU, VT, ECU, South Carolina, Florida St, Miami

The ACC is down to 7 after Clemson bolts to the SEC:

Maryland, UVA, UNC, NC St, Duke, WF, GT

The ACC is left in a tight spot. Back then I don't think anyone was brave enou to try 14 or 16. The ACC certainly has some schools in their camp that are more attractive than some of the Eatern League schools but there's no room to add them. Maybe we would have seen a bigger conference sooner. Maybe there is a merger of sorts where the best Eastern League withdraw and grab some ACC schools and reform.

Well, the 16-team Metro Conference was apparently very close to becoming a reality.

Suppose that instead of the Big East adding football schools, the ACC picks them up instead. They admit FSU and Miami as full members while inviting BC, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, VT, and WV as football affiliates. So by 1991, we have:

ACC Football
North: BC, UMD, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, UVA, VT, WV
South: Clemson, Duke, FSU, GT, Miami, UNC, NCSU, WF

ACC Non-football: Clemson, Duke, FSU, GT, UMD, Miami, UNC, NCSU, UVA, WF

BC, Pitt, and Syracuse keep their non-FB sports in the BE, at least initially. The ACC might add some of the FB affiliates as full members over time, like the BE did. The ACC's enhanced profile could very well compel Notre Dame to join the ACC as a non-football member in the '90s rather than the Big East, but I dunno.

~~~~~~

As a bonus, a potential present-day alignment for the above scenario:

ACC
North: Boston College, Maryland, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
South: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Protected crossover: North Carolina/Virginia

I have to think that some of the schools you have as football onlys have basketball that would be attractive enough to add in 1991 as well: Syracuse, BC, Pitt, would be solid adds. WVU, Rutgers, and VT are less appealing but my guess is WVU gets spot 14 while VT and Rutgers are forced to wait a few years for full membership.
11-24-2017 03:52 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #235
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-24-2017 03:52 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(11-23-2017 01:10 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(11-22-2017 03:12 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Megadrone-

Let's say it's 1991 and the Eastern League sits at:

North: BC, Syracuse, Rutgers, Temple, Pitt, Penn St
South: WVU, VT, ECU, South Carolina, Florida St, Miami

The ACC is down to 7 after Clemson bolts to the SEC:

Maryland, UVA, UNC, NC St, Duke, WF, GT

The ACC is left in a tight spot. Back then I don't think anyone was brave enou to try 14 or 16. The ACC certainly has some schools in their camp that are more attractive than some of the Eatern League schools but there's no room to add them. Maybe we would have seen a bigger conference sooner. Maybe there is a merger of sorts where the best Eastern League withdraw and grab some ACC schools and reform.

Well, the 16-team Metro Conference was apparently very close to becoming a reality.

Suppose that instead of the Big East adding football schools, the ACC picks them up instead. They admit FSU and Miami as full members while inviting BC, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, VT, and WV as football affiliates. So by 1991, we have:

ACC Football
North: BC, UMD, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, UVA, VT, WV
South: Clemson, Duke, FSU, GT, Miami, UNC, NCSU, WF

ACC Non-football: Clemson, Duke, FSU, GT, UMD, Miami, UNC, NCSU, UVA, WF

BC, Pitt, and Syracuse keep their non-FB sports in the BE, at least initially. The ACC might add some of the FB affiliates as full members over time, like the BE did. The ACC's enhanced profile could very well compel Notre Dame to join the ACC as a non-football member in the '90s rather than the Big East, but I dunno.

~~~~~~

As a bonus, a potential present-day alignment for the above scenario:

ACC
North: Boston College, Maryland, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
South: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Protected crossover: North Carolina/Virginia

I have to think that some of the schools you have as football onlys have basketball that would be attractive enough to add in 1991 as well: Syracuse, BC, Pitt, would be solid adds. WVU, Rutgers, and VT are less appealing but my guess is WVU gets spot 14 while VT and Rutgers are forced to wait a few years for full membership.

I was thinking that the 3 Big East schools would be hesitant to leave behind their basketball buddies and that the ACC would need time to ease themselves into becoming a true "Atlantic Coast" conference.
11-24-2017 04:12 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #236
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
Nerdlinger--wouldn't they just be swapping basketball buddies?

Maryland, Duke, and UNC are a pretty fair swap for Georgetown, Villanova, and St. John's. I don't think they'd be too broken up about leaving Providence and Seton Hall.
11-24-2017 06:03 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #237
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-24-2017 06:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Nerdlinger--wouldn't they just be swapping basketball buddies?

Maryland, Duke, and UNC are a pretty fair swap for Georgetown, Villanova, and St. John's. I don't think they'd be too broken up about leaving Providence and Seton Hall.

Fair enough. I just don't know much about how strong the rivalries were between the Big East schools back then.

Adding FSU, Miami, BC, Pitt, and Syracuse as full members all at once in 1991-ish is a big step though.
11-24-2017 09:33 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #238
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
There are articles dating back to 1990/91 that mention Syracuse, Pitt, BC, and WVU as possible ACC targets. FSU and Miami too, of course. The ACC knew that there was an opportunity for an east coast conference without Penn State. It just took a number of years (not in the grand scheme) to convince the old heads and get it off the ground.

Rutgers was mentioned for the Big 10 during the same time despite how atrocious they were on the field; the school profile just fit. As was Colorado to the Pac 10, with possibly BYU (no surprise Utah replaces them). Texas never pulled the trigger on the Pac 10, but besides that, most of the substantial predictions have come true.

Miami to the Big East was the largest band-aid of all-time. They were an obvious desperate grasp to replace Penn State in college realignment’s most nearsighted overlook.
11-24-2017 11:21 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #239
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(08-21-2017 09:35 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-13-2017 12:46 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  New alternate history scenario! The earliest differences from our timeline are the Big Ten's rejection of Penn State for membership in 1990 and Notre Dame's TV deal not panning out. This leads the Irish to join the Big Ten, while Penn State creates a new eastern conference that prevents the addition of football to the Big East.

Here's a variant on the scenario referenced above wherein all conferences reach 16 football schools. The present-day Division I-A:

B16
East: Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Ohio State
North: Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Wisconsin
South: Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue
West: Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska
Protected crossover: Notre Dame/Purdue

EAC
East: Boston College, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple
North: Maryland, Penn State, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
South: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL
West: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech

PAC
East: Houston, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
North: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado State, Utah
West: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

SEC
East: Florida, Georgia, NC State, South Carolina
North: Cincinnati, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
South: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
West: Arkansas, LSU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Protected crossovers: Alabama/Tennessee, Auburn/Georgia

SWC
East: Central Florida, East Carolina, South Florida, Wake Forest
North: Kansas State, Louisville, Memphis, Tulsa
South: Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Tulane, UAB
West: Baylor, Rice, SMU, TCU

WAC
East: Air Force, BYU, Utah State, Wyoming
North: Boise State, Idaho, Nevada, UNLV
South: New Mexico, New Mexico State, North Texas, UTEP
West: Fresno State, Hawaii, San Diego State, San Jose State

MAC
East: Army, Buffalo, Connecticut, Navy
North: Akron, Bowling Green, Kent State, Toledo
South: Ball State, Marshall, Miami-OH, Ohio
West: Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan

SAC
East: FAU, FIU, Georgia Southern, Georgia State
North: Appalachian State, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Old Dominion
South: Middle Tennessee, South Alabama, Troy, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State

Notable annual interconference matchups: BYU/Utah, Cincinnati/Miami-OH, Clemson/South Carolina, Colorado/Colorado State, Florida/Florida State, Georgia/Georgia Tech, Kansas/Kansas State, Navy/Notre Dame, NC State/North Carolina, Notre Dame/USC, Oklahoma/Texas

The initial EAC lineup in 1991 was BC, FSU, Miami, PSU, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple, VT, and WVU. The Big 12 formed in 1996 as in our timeline, but Nebraska defected to the Big Ten, and Houston was tapped to replace them. The 6 power conferences were stable for the next 15 years, although there was some movement in the non-power conferences. Unlike in our timeline, the remnant SWC survived and preempted the creation of C-USA and the eastward growth of the WAC.

Then things broke wide open in 2010, when the Pac-10 announced an eastward expansion, into the territory of the increasingly fragile Big 12. Houston, Texas, A&M, and TT joined the newly-renamed PAC (Pacific Athletic Conference) and CSU and Utah from the WAC.

The Big Ten capitalized on the situation by annexing Colorado, ISU, Kansas, and Missouri, becoming the Big 16. The SEC picked off the OK schools while helping themselves to Cincinnati from the SWC and NC State from the small and vulnerable ACC. With the ACC destabilized, the EAC opened its doors to the remaining ACC schools, aside from WF.

The Southern Athletic Conference (SAC) is a Sun Belt analog that formed from the eastern wing of the widely-dispersed Big West after the western wing defected to the WAC. Similar to the Sun Belt, the SAC filled out its ranks by drawing from I-AA. The last independent holdouts, Army and Navy, joined the MAC as football affiliates, leading to eight 16-team I-A conferences.

Here's a map depicting the P4 conferences in this scenario: https://www.dropbox.com/s/9w31hzv5a9zzlu...C.png?dl=0
11-25-2017 05:39 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #240
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-25-2017 05:39 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(08-21-2017 09:35 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-13-2017 12:46 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  New alternate history scenario! The earliest differences from our timeline are the Big Ten's rejection of Penn State for membership in 1990 and Notre Dame's TV deal not panning out. This leads the Irish to join the Big Ten, while Penn State creates a new eastern conference that prevents the addition of football to the Big East.

Here's a variant on the scenario referenced above wherein all conferences reach 16 football schools. The present-day Division I-A:

B16
East: Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Ohio State
North: Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Wisconsin
South: Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue
West: Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska
Protected crossover: Notre Dame/Purdue

EAC
East: Boston College, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple
North: Maryland, Penn State, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
South: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL
West: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech

PAC
East: Houston, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
North: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado State, Utah
West: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

SEC
East: Florida, Georgia, NC State, South Carolina
North: Cincinnati, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
South: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
West: Arkansas, LSU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Protected crossovers: Alabama/Tennessee, Auburn/Georgia

SWC
East: Central Florida, East Carolina, South Florida, Wake Forest
North: Kansas State, Louisville, Memphis, Tulsa
South: Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Tulane, UAB
West: Baylor, Rice, SMU, TCU

WAC
East: Air Force, BYU, Utah State, Wyoming
North: Boise State, Idaho, Nevada, UNLV
South: New Mexico, New Mexico State, North Texas, UTEP
West: Fresno State, Hawaii, San Diego State, San Jose State

MAC
East: Army, Buffalo, Connecticut, Navy
North: Akron, Bowling Green, Kent State, Toledo
South: Ball State, Marshall, Miami-OH, Ohio
West: Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan

SAC
East: FAU, FIU, Georgia Southern, Georgia State
North: Appalachian State, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Old Dominion
South: Middle Tennessee, South Alabama, Troy, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State

Notable annual interconference matchups: BYU/Utah, Cincinnati/Miami-OH, Clemson/South Carolina, Colorado/Colorado State, Florida/Florida State, Georgia/Georgia Tech, Kansas/Kansas State, Navy/Notre Dame, NC State/North Carolina, Notre Dame/USC, Oklahoma/Texas

The initial EAC lineup in 1991 was BC, FSU, Miami, PSU, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple, VT, and WVU. The Big 12 formed in 1996 as in our timeline, but Nebraska defected to the Big Ten, and Houston was tapped to replace them. The 6 power conferences were stable for the next 15 years, although there was some movement in the non-power conferences. Unlike in our timeline, the remnant SWC survived and preempted the creation of C-USA and the eastward growth of the WAC.

Then things broke wide open in 2010, when the Pac-10 announced an eastward expansion, into the territory of the increasingly fragile Big 12. Houston, Texas, A&M, and TT joined the newly-renamed PAC (Pacific Athletic Conference) and CSU and Utah from the WAC.

The Big Ten capitalized on the situation by annexing Colorado, ISU, Kansas, and Missouri, becoming the Big 16. The SEC picked off the OK schools while helping themselves to Cincinnati from the SWC and NC State from the small and vulnerable ACC. With the ACC destabilized, the EAC opened its doors to the remaining ACC schools, aside from WF.

The Southern Athletic Conference (SAC) is a Sun Belt analog that formed from the eastern wing of the widely-dispersed Big West after the western wing defected to the WAC. Similar to the Sun Belt, the SAC filled out its ranks by drawing from I-AA. The last independent holdouts, Army and Navy, joined the MAC as football affiliates, leading to eight 16-team I-A conferences.

Here's a map depicting the P4 conferences in this scenario: https://www.dropbox.com/s/9w31hzv5a9zzlu...C.png?dl=0

Also, a variant on the evolution of the G4 conferences:

After the other ACC schools leave, Wake Forest rebuilds the ACC rather than joining the SWC. Initial adds include Army, ECU, Louisville, Marshall, Navy, UCF, UConn, and USF. Like the SWC, the ACC is no longer considered a power conference.

ACC
East: East Carolina, James Madison, Old Dominion, Wake Forest
North: Army, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Navy
South: Central Florida, FAU, FIU, South Florida
West: Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Louisville, Marshall

MAC
East: Bowling Green, Miami-OH, Ohio, Toledo
North: Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Youngstown State
South: Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky
West: Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan

SWC
East: South Alabama, Southern Miss, Troy, UAB
North: Arkansas State, Kansas State, Memphis, Tulsa
South: Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Tulane
West: Baylor, Rice, SMU, TCU

WAC
East: New Mexico, New Mexico State, North Texas, UTEP
North: Air Force, BYU, Utah State, Wyoming
South: Fresno State, Hawaii, San Diego State, San Jose State
West: Boise State, Idaho, Nevada, UNLV

And a map for this G4: https://www.dropbox.com/s/3vek074vkkzx9b...4.png?dl=0
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2017 05:45 PM by Nerdlinger.)
11-30-2017 11:30 AM
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