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Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #741
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(10-31-2020 09:32 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m going to tweak my MVC speculation a bit:

In the 50s the MVC loses Drake but gains Tulsa and Wichita St so that by the 60s the line up was:

Iowa St, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas St, Wichita St, Tulsa, Colorado

This puts them at 8 members at the same time the real Big 8 went to 8.

Nebraska goes to the SWC in the early 90s, SC and VT to the SEC, BYU to the MVC.

In 04 Miami, Cuse, and BC go to the ACC.

That leaves Rutgers, Pitt, WVU, and UConn all in a tight spot (Temple too). UCF gets into the Big East along with Cincy, Louisville, USF, Marquette, and DePaul.

The BCS ends up being a little different with 7 conferences instead of 6.

In 2010 the PAC 10 takes Colorado and Utah. The Big 10 takes Nebraska. The SWC holds at 10.

Infighting caused by Texas leads TAMU and Arkansas to leave the SWC for the SEC. In 2012 Pitt and Rutgers jump to the ACC. The 8 SWC schools bring in Missouri, Kansas, K St, and Iowa St for 12.

BYU goes Indy.

PAC 12–same as now
Big 10–same as now only no Maryland or Rutgers
ACC-same as now only instead of Louisville and VT they have Maryland and Rutgers
SEC—same as now only they have VT instead of Missouri
SWC—North: Iowa St, Kansas, K St, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St
South: TCU, SMU, Baylor, Rice, TTU, Texas
BE fb: UConn, Temple, WVU, Cincy, Louisville, USF, UCF, Wich St, Tulsa, +Navy (fb only)

I may have missed it - what happens to Houston?
10-31-2020 11:14 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #742
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(10-31-2020 11:14 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(10-31-2020 09:32 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m going to tweak my MVC speculation a bit:

In the 50s the MVC loses Drake but gains Tulsa and Wichita St so that by the 60s the line up was:

Iowa St, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas St, Wichita St, Tulsa, Colorado

This puts them at 8 members at the same time the real Big 8 went to 8.

Nebraska goes to the SWC in the early 90s, SC and VT to the SEC, BYU to the MVC.

In 04 Miami, Cuse, and BC go to the ACC.

That leaves Rutgers, Pitt, WVU, and UConn all in a tight spot (Temple too). UCF gets into the Big East along with Cincy, Louisville, USF, Marquette, and DePaul.

The BCS ends up being a little different with 7 conferences instead of 6.

In 2010 the PAC 10 takes Colorado and Utah. The Big 10 takes Nebraska. The SWC holds at 10.

Infighting caused by Texas leads TAMU and Arkansas to leave the SWC for the SEC. In 2012 Pitt and Rutgers jump to the ACC. The 8 SWC schools bring in Missouri, Kansas, K St, and Iowa St for 12.

BYU goes Indy.

PAC 12–same as now
Big 10–same as now only no Maryland or Rutgers
ACC-same as now only instead of Louisville and VT they have Maryland and Rutgers
SEC—same as now only they have VT instead of Missouri
SWC—North: Iowa St, Kansas, K St, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St
South: TCU, SMU, Baylor, Rice, TTU, Texas
BE fb: UConn, Temple, WVU, Cincy, Louisville, USF, UCF, Wich St, Tulsa, +Navy (fb only)

I may have missed it - what happens to Houston?

They're forgotten in the sands of time.
11-01-2020 01:14 AM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #743
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-01-2020 01:14 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(10-31-2020 11:14 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(10-31-2020 09:32 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m going to tweak my MVC speculation a bit:

In the 50s the MVC loses Drake but gains Tulsa and Wichita St so that by the 60s the line up was:

Iowa St, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas St, Wichita St, Tulsa, Colorado

This puts them at 8 members at the same time the real Big 8 went to 8.

Nebraska goes to the SWC in the early 90s, SC and VT to the SEC, BYU to the MVC.

In 04 Miami, Cuse, and BC go to the ACC.

That leaves Rutgers, Pitt, WVU, and UConn all in a tight spot (Temple too). UCF gets into the Big East along with Cincy, Louisville, USF, Marquette, and DePaul.

The BCS ends up being a little different with 7 conferences instead of 6.

In 2010 the PAC 10 takes Colorado and Utah. The Big 10 takes Nebraska. The SWC holds at 10.

Infighting caused by Texas leads TAMU and Arkansas to leave the SWC for the SEC. In 2012 Pitt and Rutgers jump to the ACC. The 8 SWC schools bring in Missouri, Kansas, K St, and Iowa St for 12.

BYU goes Indy.

PAC 12–same as now
Big 10–same as now only no Maryland or Rutgers
ACC-same as now only instead of Louisville and VT they have Maryland and Rutgers
SEC—same as now only they have VT instead of Missouri
SWC—North: Iowa St, Kansas, K St, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St
South: TCU, SMU, Baylor, Rice, TTU, Texas
BE fb: UConn, Temple, WVU, Cincy, Louisville, USF, UCF, Wich St, Tulsa, +Navy (fb only)

I may have missed it - what happens to Houston?

They're forgotten in the sands of time.

Someone has to be
11-01-2020 02:43 AM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #744
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(10-31-2020 11:14 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(10-31-2020 09:32 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m going to tweak my MVC speculation a bit:

In the 50s the MVC loses Drake but gains Tulsa and Wichita St so that by the 60s the line up was:

Iowa St, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas St, Wichita St, Tulsa, Colorado

This puts them at 8 members at the same time the real Big 8 went to 8.

Nebraska goes to the SWC in the early 90s, SC and VT to the SEC, BYU to the MVC.

In 04 Miami, Cuse, and BC go to the ACC.

That leaves Rutgers, Pitt, WVU, and UConn all in a tight spot (Temple too). UCF gets into the Big East along with Cincy, Louisville, USF, Marquette, and DePaul.

The BCS ends up being a little different with 7 conferences instead of 6.

In 2010 the PAC 10 takes Colorado and Utah. The Big 10 takes Nebraska. The SWC holds at 10.

Infighting caused by Texas leads TAMU and Arkansas to leave the SWC for the SEC. In 2012 Pitt and Rutgers jump to the ACC. The 8 SWC schools bring in Missouri, Kansas, K St, and Iowa St for 12.

BYU goes Indy.

PAC 12–same as now
Big 10–same as now only no Maryland or Rutgers
ACC-same as now only instead of Louisville and VT they have Maryland and Rutgers
SEC—same as now only they have VT instead of Missouri
SWC—North: Iowa St, Kansas, K St, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St
South: TCU, SMU, Baylor, Rice, TTU, Texas
BE fb: UConn, Temple, WVU, Cincy, Louisville, USF, UCF, Wich St, Tulsa, +Navy (fb only)

I may have missed it - what happens to Houston?

Oops—lost them in the shuffle. They are in the SWC, which bumps Iowa St to the Big East.
11-01-2020 08:13 AM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #745
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(10-02-2020 07:53 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(04-28-2020 08:20 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Remember the WAC-16 from 1996-1998? From what I’ve read, it came into being by one vote. But what if they couldn’t get the votes and don’t add 2 members to their eastern flank and 4 to the west? (From what I understand, the 3 SWC schools were only coming as a package deal and the West schools were going to block any expansion that didn’t include UNLV and SJSU).

The WAC holds at 10:

Hawaii, Fresno St, San Diego St, Utah, BYU, Wyo, Colo St, AFA, UNM, UTEP

The Big West still expands that year:

SJSU, UNLV, Nevada, Utah St, NMSU, Boise St, Idaho, UNT

What happens with the SWC schools? I’d think Houston still bails on the other 3.

Any chance that C-USA decides to go to 16 in all sports and 10 for football?:

Tulsa, SMU, TCU, Houston, Rice, Tulane, USM, Memphis, Louisville, Cincinnati
non-fb: UAB, Char, USF, DePaul, Marquette, St Louis

by 2003 fb would be at 12 with the UAB and USF upgrades

The alternative for the SWC schools is a lot bleaker.

2005 sees Louisville, Cincinnati, USF, DePaul, Marquette, St Louis, and Charlotte depart C-USA and Marshall, UCF, and ECU join.

SBC football doesn’t get off the ground until 2005 with Ark St, LA Tech, ULL, MTSU, Troy, FAU, and FIU.

The WAC and Big Sky conferences enjoy stability from 1996-2010, when Utah and BYU leave the WAC.

I'm a bit late in responding to this, but I posted a similar scenario upthread a ways: https://csnbbs.com/thread-821510-post-15...id15283343

I feel like even if the WAC stuck at 10 for 1996, they'd eventually expand to 12 for the CCG, and it would end up very much like that scenario.

The tricky part with a 12 team WAC is the Airport 5–they are going to want to all be together. This probably means then that either 1 of UNM/UTEP gets thrown in an odd division or you have some weird North/South alignment.

If you bring in UNLV and SJSU as 11 and 12 you get:

North: UNLV, Utah, BYU, Wyoming, Colorado St, Air Force
South: Hawaii, SDSU, Fresno St, SJSU, UNM, UTEP

The MWC has no interest in expanding for a CCG from 1999-2011 so my thinking is that this WAC wouldn’t either.

Now if you add 4 schools from the West though you can make things work. In 1996 Nevada is pick #13 but there is no clear #14—NMSU and Utah St would both be blackballed.

If the WAC was going to go from 10 to 14, they have to do it a little later to give Boise St time to establish themselves as the #14 option. If I had to pick a time where the MWC would have expanded and added a CCG it would be either 2005 when the ACC and C-USA were adding CCGs or in that run of great Boise St seasons from 2006-2010.
(This post was last modified: 11-02-2020 02:46 PM by Fighting Muskie.)
11-02-2020 02:32 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #746
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
In my WAC scenario the Big West would run into some membership gridlock in 1996. They’d have football playing members:

SJSU
UNLV
Nevada
Utah St
NMSU

and an equal number of non-football members:

UC Irvine
UC Santa Barbara
Pacific
Cal St Fullerton
Long Beach St

In real life, they lose 2 football schools (UNLV, SJSU) but add 3 (Idaho, Boise St, UNT) but leveled out at 6-6 by adding Cal Poly-SLO on the non-fb side.

Boise likely can’t join without Idaho so another non-fb school would have to come in that year too (Sac St or CSUN).

UNT could still be added as a fb affiliate.

So what I envision the 1996 Big West looking like is:

Non-fb (7): UC Irvine, UCSB, LB St, Pacific, Cal St-Fullerton, Cal Poly-SLO, CSUN
fb (7): SJSU, Nevada, UNLV, Utah St, Idaho, Boise St, NMSU
fb affiliates (5): ULL, LA Tech, Ark St, UNT, NIU

NIU would then screw up the 2 divisions of 6 model by joining the MAC in 1997 bringing football participation down to 11.
11-02-2020 05:49 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #747
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
We’ve probably done this before, but if the SoCon never splits and the small private schools drop out you get a 20 member conference:

West: LSU, Tulane, Ole Miss, Miss St, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Florida
East: Georgia, Georgia Tech, Clemson, SC, UNC, NC St, Duke, UVA, VT, Maryland

Maybe someone figures out early on that they should match the top two teams in a bowl game, like the Sugar Bowl, and we get the very first CCG.
11-06-2020 03:03 PM
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Post: #748
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-06-2020 03:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’ve probably done this before, but if the SoCon never splits and the small private schools drop out you get a 20 member conference:

West: LSU, Tulane, Ole Miss, Miss St, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Florida
East: Georgia, Georgia Tech, Clemson, SC, UNC, NC St, Duke, UVA, VT, Maryland

Except there are some other members that were neither small and/or private playing in the SoCon:

George Washington
William & Mary (the second largest school in VA at the time)
VMI
Wake Forest
11-06-2020 03:11 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #749
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-06-2020 03:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’ve probably done this before, but if the SoCon never splits and the small private schools drop out you get a 20 member conference:

West: LSU, Tulane, Ole Miss, Miss St, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Florida
East: Georgia, Georgia Tech, Clemson, SC, UNC, NC St, Duke, UVA, VT, Maryland

Maybe someone figures out early on that they should match the top two teams in a bowl game, like the Sugar Bowl, and we get the very first CCG.

I’d think Georgia would stick to the West and a school like Kentucky would go East. Regardless, a pod system may work?

West: Alabama, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Tulane
South: Auburn, Clemson, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina
North: Kentucky, Maryland, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
East: Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Virginia
11-06-2020 04:25 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-06-2020 03:11 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  
(11-06-2020 03:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’ve probably done this before, but if the SoCon never splits and the small private schools drop out you get a 20 member conference:

West: LSU, Tulane, Ole Miss, Miss St, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Florida
East: Georgia, Georgia Tech, Clemson, SC, UNC, NC St, Duke, UVA, VT, Maryland

Except there are some other members that were neither small and/or private playing in the SoCon:

George Washington
William & Mary (the second largest school in VA at the time)
VMI
Wake Forest

VMI, Washington & Lee, and Sewanee were the only ones to join before the SEC/SoCon split. I’m assuming they never add the schools that joined after the SEC breakaway.
11-06-2020 06:07 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #751
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-06-2020 04:25 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(11-06-2020 03:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’ve probably done this before, but if the SoCon never splits and the small private schools drop out you get a 20 member conference:

West: LSU, Tulane, Ole Miss, Miss St, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Florida
East: Georgia, Georgia Tech, Clemson, SC, UNC, NC St, Duke, UVA, VT, Maryland

Maybe someone figures out early on that they should match the top two teams in a bowl game, like the Sugar Bowl, and we get the very first CCG.

I’d think Georgia would stick to the West and a school like Kentucky would go East. Regardless, a pod system may work?

West: Alabama, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Tulane
South: Auburn, Clemson, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina
North: Kentucky, Maryland, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
East: Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Virginia

Or 3 pods:

East: Maryland, UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, Duke, Clemson, SC (8)
Central: Florida, GT, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky (6)
West: Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss, Miss St, LSU, Tulane (6)
11-06-2020 06:12 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #752
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
Playing with early 90s realignment a little:

Arkansas and Florida St to the SEC
Miami to the ACC

What happens with what’s left? Does the Big East’s Pitt, Cuse, and BC still assemble a football league with Rutgers, Temple, WVU, VT, and SC (taking the place of Miami)? Is that group still capable of getting a seat in the Bowl Alliance/Coalition and then BCS?

Is there then instate pressure for the ACC to go to 12 with VT, SC, and one more and if so does it happen sooner?

Is there a scenario where, for the 90s and early 00s that the Metro—with SC, VT, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, USM, and Tulane—bring in affiliates and/or full members and its them and not the Big East hosting a football conference?
11-11-2020 12:08 PM
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RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
I’ve been thinking some more about that last scenario I posed.

Miami is really in a position to determine if either the ACC or the conglomerate of former independents gets a seat at the Bowl Coalition/Alliance table. With that leverage in mind, if they go to the ACC they would have a big say in who else gets to be in the conference and might be able to name a school or schools to come with them. There could be a 12 team ACC in 1991.

Pitt, Cuse, BC, VT, WVU, and SC would all be in that hunt.
11-12-2020 05:14 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #754
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
If the WAC 16 vote fails what happens?

Do Rice, SMU, and TCU find their way into the C-USA merger? If they do, is it anyone’s expense?

Is there any chance they try to rebuild the SWC? If Tulane and USM are on board, maybe it swings some of the other football playing schools into the fold. Maybe Tulsa and UTEP get in the fold?
(I’m guessing that UNT, ULL, LA Tech, and Ark St would all be unpalatable)

Out west, I’m guessing the Big West lives on a little longer as a football conference—maybe all the way to 2011 unless the WAC decides to go to 12 somewhere in there.
11-21-2020 04:18 PM
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Post: #755
RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(11-11-2020 12:08 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Playing with early 90s realignment a little:

Arkansas and Florida St to the SEC
Miami to the ACC

What happens with what’s left? Does the Big East’s Pitt, Cuse, and BC still assemble a football league with Rutgers, Temple, WVU, VT, and SC (taking the place of Miami)? Is that group still capable of getting a seat in the Bowl Alliance/Coalition and then BCS?

Is there then instate pressure for the ACC to go to 12 with VT, SC, and one more and if so does it happen sooner?

Is there a scenario where, for the 90s and early 00s that the Metro—with SC, VT, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, USM, and Tulane—bring in affiliates and/or full members and its them and not the Big East hosting a football conference?
If the ACC was at 9 schools (with Miami, rather than FSU) and was seeking to expand to 12 schools, then the instate pressures would have been the determining factor in expansion. Clemson was supportive of USC’s return...USC is the 10th. Similarly, VT can leverage UVA to become the 11th member.

The 12th member would be a difficult call. The best candidate would be a Big East school that was willing to prioritize football...Syracuse, WVU and BC would be the best candidates.

Basically, USC replaces FSU in this alternate.
11-21-2020 06:20 PM
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