Here is a what if for everyone:

The Oklahoma schools never leave the SWC

My guess is TCU joins in the '20's.

But what about the league that would have been known as the Big 8? My guess is that they have to go deeper into the West for members. Instead of just Colorado maybe it's Colorado St, Utah, and BYU as well.

I don't know that Texas Tech and Houston end up joining if the Oklahoma schools are there. I'm also guessing that without the Oklahoma schools in the Big 8 that schools like Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri all try to make cases to get into the SWC. These schools also probably lobby the Big Ten hard too.

Regardless, I think in the early 90's the SWC becomes a 12 team league and Rice, TCU, and SMU never get pushed out.

(11-30-2017 09:21 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Here is a what if for everyone:

The Oklahoma schools never leave the SWC

My guess is TCU joins in the '20's.

But what about the league that would have been known as the Big 8? My guess is that they have to go deeper into the West for members. Instead of just Colorado maybe it's Colorado St, Utah, and BYU as well.

I don't know that Texas Tech and Houston end up joining if the Oklahoma schools are there. I'm also guessing that without the Oklahoma schools in the Big 8 that schools like Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri all try to make cases to get into the SWC. These schools also probably lobby the Big Ten hard too.

Regardless, I think in the early 90's the SWC becomes a 12 team league and Rice, TCU, and SMU never get pushed out.

They should have kept the SWC together instead of expanded the WAC.

That is the way it would have worked today but the left behind Texas schools at the time were super weak.

(11-30-2017 11:30 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(11-25-2017 05:39 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(08-21-2017 09:35 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(07-13-2017 12:46 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  New alternate history scenario! The earliest differences from our timeline are the Big Ten's rejection of Penn State for membership in 1990 and Notre Dame's TV deal not panning out. This leads the Irish to join the Big Ten, while Penn State creates a new eastern conference that prevents the addition of football to the Big East.

Here's a variant on the scenario referenced above wherein all conferences reach 16 football schools. The present-day Division I-A:

B16
East: Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Ohio State
North: Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Wisconsin
South: Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue
West: Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska
Protected crossover: Notre Dame/Purdue

EAC
East: Boston College, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple
North: Maryland, Penn State, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
South: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL
West: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech

PAC
East: Houston, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
North: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado State, Utah
West: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

SEC
East: Florida, Georgia, NC State, South Carolina
North: Cincinnati, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
South: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
West: Arkansas, LSU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Protected crossovers: Alabama/Tennessee, Auburn/Georgia

SWC
East: Central Florida, East Carolina, South Florida, Wake Forest
North: Kansas State, Louisville, Memphis, Tulsa
South: Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Tulane, UAB
West: Baylor, Rice, SMU, TCU

WAC
East: Air Force, BYU, Utah State, Wyoming
North: Boise State, Idaho, Nevada, UNLV
South: New Mexico, New Mexico State, North Texas, UTEP
West: Fresno State, Hawaii, San Diego State, San Jose State

MAC
East: Army, Buffalo, Connecticut, Navy
North: Akron, Bowling Green, Kent State, Toledo
South: Ball State, Marshall, Miami-OH, Ohio
West: Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan

SAC
East: FAU, FIU, Georgia Southern, Georgia State
North: Appalachian State, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Old Dominion
South: Middle Tennessee, South Alabama, Troy, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State

Notable annual interconference matchups: BYU/Utah, Cincinnati/Miami-OH, Clemson/South Carolina, Colorado/Colorado State, Florida/Florida State, Georgia/Georgia Tech, Kansas/Kansas State, Navy/Notre Dame, NC State/North Carolina, Notre Dame/USC, Oklahoma/Texas

The initial EAC lineup in 1991 was BC, FSU, Miami, PSU, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple, VT, and WVU. The Big 12 formed in 1996 as in our timeline, but Nebraska defected to the Big Ten, and Houston was tapped to replace them. The 6 power conferences were stable for the next 15 years, although there was some movement in the non-power conferences. Unlike in our timeline, the remnant SWC survived and preempted the creation of C-USA and the eastward growth of the WAC.

Then things broke wide open in 2010, when the Pac-10 announced an eastward expansion, into the territory of the increasingly fragile Big 12. Houston, Texas, A&M, and TT joined the newly-renamed PAC (Pacific Athletic Conference) and CSU and Utah from the WAC.

The Big Ten capitalized on the situation by annexing Colorado, ISU, Kansas, and Missouri, becoming the Big 16. The SEC picked off the OK schools while helping themselves to Cincinnati from the SWC and NC State from the small and vulnerable ACC. With the ACC destabilized, the EAC opened its doors to the remaining ACC schools, aside from WF.

The Southern Athletic Conference (SAC) is a Sun Belt analog that formed from the eastern wing of the widely-dispersed Big West after the western wing defected to the WAC. Similar to the Sun Belt, the SAC filled out its ranks by drawing from I-AA. The last independent holdouts, Army and Navy, joined the MAC as football affiliates, leading to eight 16-team I-A conferences.

Here's a map depicting the P4 conferences in this scenario: https://www.dropbox.com/s/9w31hzv5a9zzlu...C.png?dl=0

Also, a variant on the evolution of the G4 conferences:

After the other ACC schools leave, Wake Forest rebuilds the ACC rather than joining the SWC. Initial adds include Army, ECU, Louisville, Marshall, Navy, UCF, UConn, and USF. Like the SWC, the ACC is no longer considered a power conference.

ACC
East: East Carolina, James Madison, Old Dominion, Wake Forest
North: Army, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Navy
South: Central Florida, FAU, FIU, South Florida
West: Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Louisville, Marshall

MAC
East: Bowling Green, Miami-OH, Ohio, Toledo
North: Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Youngstown State
South: Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky
West: Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan

SWC
East: South Alabama, Southern Miss, Troy, UAB
North: Arkansas State, Kansas State, Memphis, Tulsa
South: Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Tulane
West: Baylor, Rice, SMU, TCU

WAC
East: New Mexico, New Mexico State, North Texas, UTEP
North: Air Force, BYU, Utah State, Wyoming
South: Fresno State, Hawaii, San Diego State, San Jose State
West: Boise State, Idaho, Nevada, UNLV

And a map for this G4: https://www.dropbox.com/s/3vek074vkkzx9b...4.png?dl=0

And a full set of Wikipedia-style timelines for the major conferences in this timelines: https://www.dropbox.com/s/cnfo56e6enlooc...s.png?dl=0

(11-30-2017 09:21 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Here is a what if for everyone:

The Oklahoma schools never leave the SWC

My guess is TCU joins in the '20's.

But what about the league that would have been known as the Big 8? My guess is that they have to go deeper into the West for members. Instead of just Colorado maybe it's Colorado St, Utah, and BYU as well.

I don't know that Texas Tech and Houston end up joining if the Oklahoma schools are there. I'm also guessing that without the Oklahoma schools in the Big 8 that schools like Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri all try to make cases to get into the SWC. These schools also probably lobby the Big Ten hard too.

Regardless, I think in the early 90's the SWC becomes a 12 team league and Rice, TCU, and SMU never get pushed out.

I addressed my thoughts on this earlier in the thread with an alt-timeline SWC

(08-05-2017 07:29 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  Alternative SWC:

When formed in 1914, the original SWC looked like this:

Texas A&M

UT-Austin

Arkansas

Baylor

Rice

Oklahoma

Oklahoma A&M (later OSU)


(Southwestern was also part of the original 1915 group but would only be a member for one year so I'm ignoring them)

Invitations were also issued to LSU and Ole Miss but they declined. In this scenario they accept and the Oklahoma schools stay as members. SMU and TCU also both join by 1923 like in real life.

So in 1924 the conference looks like this:

Texas A&M
TCU
UT-Austin
SMU
Baylor
Rice
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
LSU
Ole Miss

Nebraska and then Kansas, Missouri are later added to form a 14 team super SWC that looks like this today (with permanent opposite division opponent in parenthesis)



Texas A&M (Nebraska)
UT-Austin (Oklahoma)
Arkansas (LSU)
SMU (Ole Miss)
TCU (Oklahoma State)
Baylor (Missouri)
Rice (Kansas)

(09-01-2017 01:33 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Suppose that a more forward-thinking Big 12 had been able to convince the NCAA to drop the 12-school minimum for a conference championship in late 2011, by which point the conference had settled on 10 schools. I imagine that one major consequence of this is that the non-power conferences wouldn't have been so keen on reaching 12. While the P5 would likely have proceeded with expansion as in our timeline, I would guess that 8 or 10 football schools would probably be the target for rest of the conferences. This means that the WAC could possibly have survived as a football conference, although only barely. A potential G6 alignment by 2017:

American: Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, Navy (FB only), SMU, Temple, Tulane, UCF, UConn, USF

C-USA: Charlotte, ECU, FIU, Marshall, North Texas, Rice, Southern Miss, Tulsa, UAB, UTEP

MWC: Air Force, Boise, CSU, Fresno, Hawaii (FB only), Nevada, New Mexico, SDSU, UNLV, Wyoming

Sun Belt: Arkansas State, FAU, MTSU, South Alabama, Troy, ULL, ULM, WKU

WAC: Idaho, La Tech, NMSU, SJSU, Texas State, Utah State, UTSA, (someone else?)

The MAC is the same as in our timeline.

Basically, the old Big East/American declines to invite ECU and Tulsa. So those two stick with C-USA, who in turn isn't as inclined to overexpand and so only takes FIU and North Texas from the Sun Belt. (UAB drops and readds football as in our timeline.) Similarly, the MWC doesn't pick off SJSU or USU from the WAC. The Sun Belt restocks to the 8-school minimum by adding USA. This leaves the WAC with just 7 football schools after adding Texas State and UTSA, so perhaps they'd add an FCS team to make eight. The MAC's 12 full members had all been in the conference since before the turn of the century. UMass had already been set as of April 2011 to join as a football affiliate, but they part ways with the MAC in just a few years as in our timeline. ODU, App State, GA Southern, GSU, and CCU remain in the FCS without an FBS conference invite.

This topic was broached in another thread just recently, but I didn't want to hijack that thread, so I thought I'd revive this one.

Here's a revised version of the "CCG deregulation in 2011" scenario. Georgia State was invited by the Sun Belt earlier than I had thought. I also neglected to take into account non-football members of the conferences.

The FBS as of 2018 in this alternate timeline (in parentheses = full members/non-FB members/FB-only members):

American (9/1/1)
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, South Florida, Temple
West: Houston, Memphis, Navy* (Patriot), SMU, Tulane
NFB: Wichita State

CUSA (10/0/0)
East: Charlotte, East Carolina, FIU, Marshall, UAB
West: North Texas, Rice, Southern Miss, Tulsa, UTEP

MWC (9/1/1)
Mountain: Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Wyoming
West: Fresno State, Hawaii* (Big West), Nevada, San Diego State, UNLV
NFB: Gonzaga

Sun Belt (9/1/1)
East: Appalachian State* (SoCon), FAU, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Troy
NFB: Little Rock

WAC (7/3/0)
FB: Idaho, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, San Jose State, Texas State, Utah State, UTSA
NFB: Denver, Seattle, Texas-Arlington

FBS Ind
Army* (Patriot), BYU* (WCC), Liberty* (ASUN), Massachusetts* (A-10), Notre Dame* (ACC)

* = football only (primary conference)

The MAC and P5 conferences are the same as in our timeline. CCU, Georgia Southern, and ODU are still in the FCS. Note that Gonzaga has joined the MWC here, balancing out Hawaii. With only 7 football schools, the WAC receives an NCAA waiver to remain an FBS conference, which the other conferences accept in exchange for the WAC taking a smaller cut of the CFP money. Since WAC football survives, Idaho sticks around in the FBS. Liberty buys their way into the FBS, as is their wont.

In the earlier CCG deregulation scenario, events could have changed to prevent the breakup of the Big East. However, I think that the conference's fate was sealed by the time they lost Notre Dame (and Rutgers and Louisville) -- possibly even earlier, before WV, Pitt, and Syracuse announced their departure, back when the Big East foolishly turned down the ESPN deal. The addition of Tulane has been (falsely) scapegoated as the straw that broke the camel's back; IMO the Big East's back was already broken. Once the Big East was no longer treated as a "power" football conference, there was little reason for the basketball schools to stick around.

However, supposing that the conference could continue to survive in its hybrid form, the lifting of the 12-school minimum for CCGs would have given it a better chance to live on. In that case, the scenario presented by Fighting Muskie in the separate thread he created is probably how it would have gone down. The full membership invite for Tulane and the FB-only membership invite for ECU were indeed announced on the same day, right after Rutgers announced it was leaving and right before Louisville did. If only the ECU FB-only invite had been extended, Louisville still would have left, but there would have been no need to add Tulane or Tulsa or give ECU a full ride. So maybe the Big East as we knew it clings to life for a while longer, adding Butler as Muskie proposed to even out the non-FB schools. I suppose even adding ECU as FB-only wouldn't have been necessary, but they had already invited Navy, so having a 10th football school would have made scheduling easier.

The FBS as of 2018 in this alternate timeline (in parentheses = full members/non-FB members/FB-only members):

Big East (8/8/2)
East: ECU (FB only), Temple, UCF, UConn, USF
West: Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, Navy (FB only), SMU
Non-FB: Butler, DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova

This leaves Tulane and Tulsa in CUSA along with non-FB ECU. I don't think the conference would have expelled ECU for putting their FB elsewhere. They didn't drop UAB in our timeline when they dropped the sport, after all. Here they add Charlotte, FIU, and North Texas because "marketz."

CUSA (10/1/0)
East: Charlotte, FIU, Marshall, Southern Miss, UAB
West: North Texas, Rice, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP
Non-FB: ECU

MWC (9/0/1)
Mountain: Air Force, Boise, CSU, New Mexico, Wyoming
West: Fresno, Hawaii (FB only), Nevada, SDSU, UNLV

SBC (10/0/0)
East: FAU, Georgia State, MTSU, Troy, WKU
West: Arkansas State, South Alabama, UALR, ULL, ULM

WAC (8/4/0)
FB: Idaho, La Tech, Montana, NMSU, SJSU, Texas State, Utah State, UTSA
Non-FB: CSU Bakersfield, Denver, Seattle, UTA

The MAC and P5 conferences are the same as in our timeline.

NOTE: Here's the alt-AAC if the Big East basketball schools did split away after the moves above. ECU is offered full membership and non-FB Wichita State is added to balance out FB-only Navy, as in our timeline.

AAC (9/1/1)
East: ECU, Temple, UCF, UConn, USF
West: Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, Navy (FB only), SMU
Non-FB: Wichita State

Fascinated the number of posts about the MAC that don't account for all of the members

Currently
East Bowling Green, Buffalo, Miami, Ohio, Kent St., Akron
West Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Ball State, Northern Illinois

I cannot envision a scenario where Marshall would be let back in. Any expansion of the MAC would likely go east and west with another Illinois school and maybe another NY school

Might as well add a Canadian school, the NCAA allows those now.

(01-24-2018 12:50 PM)indianasniff Wrote:  Fascinated the number of posts about the MAC that don't account for all of the members

Currently
East Bowling Green, Buffalo, Miami, Ohio, Kent St., Akron
West Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Ball State, Northern Illinois

I cannot envision a scenario where Marshall would be let back in. Any expansion of the MAC would likely go east and west with another Illinois school and maybe another NY school

If Marshall wanted back in I think the MAC would listen. With that said, there is no real advantage to large G5 conferences anymore and no one in the MAC looks terribly upwardly mobile so the league will likely remain stable for decades to come.

(01-24-2018 12:50 PM)indianasniff Wrote:  Fascinated the number of posts about the MAC that don't account for all of the members

Currently
East Bowling Green, Buffalo, Miami, Ohio, Kent St., Akron
West Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Ball State, Northern Illinois

I cannot envision a scenario where Marshall would be let back in. Any expansion of the MAC would likely go east and west with another Illinois school and maybe another NY school

What NY school? Albany and Stony Brook are both FCS and pretty far east.

(01-25-2018 09:59 AM)megadrone Wrote:  

(01-24-2018 12:50 PM)indianasniff Wrote:  Fascinated the number of posts about the MAC that don't account for all of the members

Currently
East Bowling Green, Buffalo, Miami, Ohio, Kent St., Akron
West Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Ball State, Northern Illinois

I cannot envision a scenario where Marshall would be let back in. Any expansion of the MAC would likely go east and west with another Illinois school and maybe another NY school

What NY school? Albany and Stony Brook are both FCS and pretty far east.

They probably mean Syracuse and Rutgers. To bring in the NYC market.

Here's a question: Why did CUSA add take UTEP from the WAC in 2005 and not LA Tech? Because "marketz"? Geographically speaking, UTEP was a bad move.

Because Louisiana Tech is barely a step up from the other Louisana schools. Even if Tech is better on the field of play right now, UTEP is the better option for a myriad of reasons.

The other Louisana schools minus LSU obviously.

(02-21-2018 01:57 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Because Louisiana Tech is barely a step up from the other Louisana schools. Even if Tech is better on the field of play right now, UTEP is the better option for a myriad of reasons.

Fair enough. Does Tech look down on ULL and ULM?

(02-21-2018 03:58 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(02-21-2018 01:57 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Because Louisiana Tech is barely a step up from the other Louisana schools. Even if Tech is better on the field of play right now, UTEP is the better option for a myriad of reasons.

Fair enough. Does Tech look down on ULL and ULM?

They most definitely do. Recall that they spent 2001-2012 in the WAC when the newly formed SBC football would have been a much better fit. They absolutely loath ULM.

(02-21-2018 06:29 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(02-21-2018 03:58 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(02-21-2018 01:57 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Because Louisiana Tech is barely a step up from the other Louisana schools. Even if Tech is better on the field of play right now, UTEP is the better option for a myriad of reasons.

Fair enough. Does Tech look down on ULL and ULM?

They most definitely do. Recall that they spent 2001-2012 in the WAC when the newly formed SBC football would have been a much better fit. They absolutely loath ULM.

Sticking around in the WAC rather than joining a more geographically appropriate conference simply to avoid being associated with ULM seems like cutting off your nose to spite your face.

(02-21-2018 06:32 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(02-21-2018 06:29 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(02-21-2018 03:58 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(02-21-2018 01:57 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Because Louisiana Tech is barely a step up from the other Louisana schools. Even if Tech is better on the field of play right now, UTEP is the better option for a myriad of reasons.

Fair enough. Does Tech look down on ULL and ULM?

They most definitely do. Recall that they spent 2001-2012 in the WAC when the newly formed SBC football would have been a much better fit. They absolutely loath ULM.

Sticking around in the WAC rather than joining a more geographically appropriate conference simply to avoid being associated with ULM seems like cutting off your nose to spite your face.

It really was but I guess you could argue that the WAC had 3 bowl tie-ins at the time while the Sunbelt had just 1. If LA Tech stays with the Sunbelt in 2001 then I think NMSU stays too in 2005. WAC schools Fresno St, San Jose St, Hawaii, Nevada, and Boise likely still have enough pull to get the Big West's Idaho and Utah St but they likely have to find a pair of FCS call ups to survive.

Didn't Louisiana Tech refuse an Independence Bowl bid in their backyard after a nine-win season because they'd be playing ULM and ended up getting shut out when no one else invited them?

(02-21-2018 01:33 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Here's a question: Why did CUSA add take UTEP from the WAC in 2005 and not LA Tech? Because "marketz"? Geographically speaking, UTEP was a bad move.

LA Tech was never considered when TCU was plucked by the MWC (announced in early 2004). 2 reasons:
1. Everyone in CUSA wanted UTEP because it was better than LA Tech in everything except women's basketball.
2. Tulane really didn't want them.