Lenvillecards
Heisman
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Let's Take a Closer Look at What ESPN Holds:
(07-01-2017 07:51 PM)Underdog Wrote: (06-27-2017 11:29 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote: (06-25-2017 05:22 PM)JRsec Wrote: (06-25-2017 04:26 PM)Underdog Wrote: (06-23-2017 11:23 PM)JRsec Wrote: AAC: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, Navy, South Florida, Southern Methodist, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa
ACC: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest and Notre Dame as a partial.
SEC: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt
They have a 50% share in the PAC.
They have a 50% share in the Big 12 (T3 advantages with Texas and Kansas)
They have about a 40% share of the Big 10.
If you look at a map you will find that they have 100% of the top P5 and G5 product in the following states: Alabama (2), Arkansas (1), Connecticut (1), Florida (5), Georgia (2), Kentucky (2), Louisiana (2), Massachusetts (1), Mississippi (2), Missouri (1), North Carolina (5), New York (1) and would be 2 if Army joins the AAC, Tennessee (3)
Here are the states where they share product. These counts will be in a fraction with the product they own completely on top and the total number of product in which they only own 50% or less on bottom: Indiana 1/3, Iowa 0/2, Kansas 0/2, Maryland 1/2, Ohio 1/2, Oklahoma 1/3, Pennsylvania 2/3, Texas 3/7, West Virginia 0/1
So let's assume that in the final realignment ESPN is satisfied with the conference placement of the ACC, SEC, and of the AAC and that they don't wish to promote or demote any of the schools in those conferences. Of the States that ESPN has less than 100% of control which constitute the most profitable investment in order to completely have rights to those states?
1. Texas: Baylor, T.C.U., Texas Tech and Texas are all 50% shared more or less. To effectively control that State ESPN needs to add Texas and Texas Tech in full. They can maintain complete control over Baylor in the AAC. T.C.U. could be a full P4 addition in an ESPN held conference, or they could also be fully controlled in the AAC.
2.
A. Since they already control as much as they will in Maryland, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Indiana the best ESPN could hope to do is pick up an addition in Iowa. Iowa State could serve as a market sharing addition if added to a P5. That would make for the most effective entry into the Iowa market. Otherwise in the AAC they would merely be a presence in Iowa.
B. They could own all of Oklahoma and Kansas if they desired to pursue them. Since Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will want to move together and ESPN already has Tulsa this is an easier pick up. Make a juicy offer for the pair and they make obtaining all of Texas even easier. Especially if....
C. They also make a strong play for Kansas and let Kansas State slip into the AAC.
3. Controlling a state as a network allows for more leverage in the procuring of the highest advertising rates. In Texas that can be lucrative.
So the objectives should be Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Iowa State if they want to solidly market the region.
West Virginia may be picked up as a solo if need be.
That's a total of 7 Big 12 schools.
Put Texas, Texas Tech, and West Virginia in the ACC with Texas as an independent and relegate T.C.U. and Baylor to the AAC and the state of Texas is completely accounted for.
Put Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Iowa State in the SEC and Kansas State in the AAC and Oklahoma and Kansas are completely accounted for. Add Iowa State and you have a presence in a key Big 10 state.
The SEC and ACC move to 18. The AAC picks up Army to go with Kansas State, Baylor and T.C.U. and they move to 16.
4. If ESPN truly wanted to wield effective power they would encourage a joint academic association between the AAU schools of their three conferences:
From the SEC (6): Florida, Iowa State, Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
From the ACC (6): Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Texas, Virginia
From the AAC (1) : Tulane
That consortium would equal the AAU members of the Big 10. By forming such an association schools would not be reticent at all to join any of the 3 ESPN held conferences.
Associations of note but not AAU then become: Notre Dame, Syracuse, Boston College, Army, Navy, Miami (which may become AAU soon), Kentucky, Georgia, N.C. State, Wake Forest, South Carolina, Clemson, and Tennessee.
By focusing on additions in this manner it becomes quite clear that ESPN can benefit all of us through scheduling alliances, academic associations, and by having complete control over the entire Eastern Seaboard from Virginia to Miami with all of the Southeastern states into Texas thereby controlling the entire Gulf of Mexico region into the Plains as far as Kansas and Missouri.
And for that solidarity we all benefit in payouts due to not having to split ad revenues within our region with another network.
So when questions arise about why take a little brother, total control of each state is essential to maintain the leverage and of all of the 7 additions suggested only 2 would be redundant. I'd say it is worth it! At the very least we need the Texa-homa schools.
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An addendum: With the Big 12 gone eventually the PAC and Big 10 will have to have a kind of merger. When that happens the AAC could be elevated to the 4th P Conference. They would also make an excellent device to pick up left over PAC schools following the Big 10 / PAC merger. Washington State, Oregon State, Air Force, San Diego State, Boise State, U.N.L.V. and a couple of more could help to form a 20 school AAC that would comprise the 4th power conference.
I stopped at the last bold part above so please forgive me for not continuing to read.... I’m breaking your post into practical parts and when I got to, “That's a total of 7 Big 12 schools”—this is where your suggestion becomes unpractical in my opinion… and this is why:
We need to start with how the AAC was formed to fully understand why what you're suggesting is not practical in my opinion: There is a conference hierarchy is college sports, which is why Cincy, UCONN, and USF were able to dismantle CUSA into the SBC despite not having a name and being unstable. Those three schools were not going to abase themselves by joining G4 conferences that were perceived as being lower in status. Consequently, they decided to elevate certain schools to where they were in the hierarchy of college sports conferences.
With that said JRsec, the B12 is far above the AAC in the conference hierarchy of college sports. The B12 brand alone would entice many AAC schools to join Baylor, TCU, and Kansas St. Being part of the Big East brand was a major reason why some schools left CUSA and joined the oBE/AAC when the expected $$ didn’t materialize. Even when the Big East name and brand was sold, other CUSA schools joined an unnamed and unstable conference. Baylor, TCU, and Kansas St also know the aforementioned history of how the AAC was formed and that almost every school would leave in lifeboats to rescue them…. Furthermore, the schools in the AAC would likely be locked into a tv contract—but if they joined the rebuilt B12, a new and better contract would likely be negotiated. The B12 would also be in the best position to assemble a true “tweener” conference that so many AAC fans currently claim.
However, let’s just say for the sake of discussion that all the schools in the AAC turn down a B12 invite. Baylor, TCU, and Kansas St would simple invite schools from the MWC or CUSA before abasing themselves (regarding perception) by joining the AAC. Therefore, I have to respectfully disagree with that part of your post. I will respond to the rest of it later….
Underdog I'm looking at the bigger picture here. It doesn't matter if it is called the AAC or Big 12 and I didn't mean to open a can of worms on semantics. I do see your point about nomenclature and branding. But the gist of my point is what ESPN holds and controls. That is the sole focus.
They have amassed sole possession of all of the P5 and top G5 schools in every state that these 3 conferences represent plus the Big 12 save these: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New York, Indiana and Ohio.
In those states they have:
Texas: 50% ownership in the 4 Big 12 schools. Majority ownership in Houston, S.M.U. and Texas A&M.
Oklahoma: 50% ownership in the 2 Big 12 schools. Majority ownership in Tulsa.
Kansas: 50% ownership in the 2 Big 12 schools.
Iowa: 50% ownership in the 1 Big 12 school.
New York: Majority ownership in Syracuse. Should Army also join the AAC/NewBig12 then they have 100%
In these state the % won't change: Ohio 1 of 2, Pennsylvania 2 of 3, Maryland 1 of 2, Indiana 1 of 3 and that one is only partial.
States where there is Big 12 product that they currently have a 50% stake in: Iowa State, West Virginia.
I was pointing out the advantage of looking at this from purely the network position. There is a clear M.O. at work here. And one that would indicate that ESPN's priority will be to hold the rights to all of the Texas schools which are currently in the P5 or top of the G5. And possibly those in Oklahoma and Kansas. West Virginia would be easy to accomplish and 50% of Iowa State give them another back door into Big 10 advertising regions.
And, the reason ESPN has been able to gain the SECN universal carriage and garner as much revenue for the ACC (even with their rotten numbers) is because they are the only avenue advertisers can take if they want to utilize and extremely popular means of acquiring the attention of viewers in one of the growing areas of the country. Since no other network has a single way to garner advertising in the Mid Atlantic and Southeast they have to go through ESPN and they have to pay a premium rate to do so.
Acquiring Texas in full is huge. It's the largest college sports regional market in the world. Having the leverage on ad rates there is worth the investment in the product.
What I'm asserting here is that by placing 4 of the present Big 12 in the SEC and 3 in the ACC and the rest in the AAC/NewBig12 this is what is set up and if you had read far enough you might have realized it.
The Big 10 in order to gain the market size it needs would be forced to merge with 8 to 10 of the present PAC and since the monetary disparity between the two conferences is about to reach 19 million a year that is highly likely.
If that happens then by making the AAC/NewBig12 a national conference with 4 very distinct regional divisions ESPN can now access advertising in every region of the nation through the ACC, SEC, and the enhanced AAC/NewBig12. That means no need to invest in the PAC since they would have good West Coast games for the 9 PM time slot. Having Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Temple, Army and Navy to go along with Pitt, Syracuse, B.C., WVU, Missouri and Kansas puts them into every major Big 10 city except: Omaha, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Detroit, and Madison. That's not bad at all. And if N.D. continues to play Michigan or Michigan State they get into to Detroit too. Schedule some OOC games between any of their three conferences and Nebraska, Minnesota and Wisconsin and you've accessed all of them.
With the PAC out of the way the new AAC/B12 becomes the 4th power conference. There's your promotion! And at that point I don't think any of your schools will give a hoot what it is called.
Just to interject here, I don't think that it should be overlooked at just how much money Cincinnati, UCONN & USF had from exit fees, NCAA credits & the C7 settlement. That money was used to entice new members to join.
That $$$ is almost gone—which is why the AAC isn’t adding any B12 leftovers unless the conference is dissolved. The three B12 schools in JRsec's realignment scenario would have plenty of exit fee $$$ to "entice" AAC schools to join them. I see the following realignment scenario:
The B16
West: *Air force, Baylor, Houston, Kansas St, Memphis, TCU, Tulane, Tulsa
East: *Army, ECU, Navy, Temple, UC, UCF, UConn, USF
The AAC is dissolved, which eliminates exit fees.
AAC Leftovers: WS (no football program) and SMU (a small private that would be an unnecessary market duplication)
My point was simply that the 3 remaining BE schools had $ to lure in new members to form a new conference instead of having to join an existing one. The remaining B12 schools would have the B13 brand & the $ received from exit fees so yes, they could annihilate the American. That would be a challenge to ESPN plans as JR laid out.
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