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ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
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arkstfan Away
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Post: #21
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
(06-23-2017 06:06 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(06-23-2017 12:22 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Most non-P5 FBS TV rights -- including AAC, MWC, and SBC as well as Army and BYU -- are now aligned to expire after the 2019-20 academic year, as Matt Sarz noted on his blog at this link.

Curious who this actually bodes well for?

1. ESPN? Do they play the conferences against each other? Does ESPN believe it is there timeslots that matter and not the teams?

2. AAC? Overall, probably the most quality teams in a conference and they will demand to be compensated? But does ESPN really view them that more valuable than other G5s when all is said and done?

3. BYU? National audience and I believe brings ~5-7 mill larger than any G5 conference.

4. SBC or MWC? Willing to take less than the AAC for the AAC TV exposure?

5. All the above agree to a consortium deal? I just don't see the AAC and Especially BYU going for this because they would have the most to lose.

6-What about ESPN wanting schools to handle TV productions? How many G5s or Indy's have this capabilty and infrastructure? This is where I think the AAC could have an upper hand if they Aresco has had the schools prepare for this. I just have no clue if they have or planned too. Hindsight, this would have been a perfect use of the P5 and BE buyout money.

In the Sun Belt: Arkansas State, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, and Troy.
Among G5 Independents to be: BYU, New Mexico State, and Liberty. Suspect UMass has it since the A10 was an early adopter of self-production for hoops.
06-24-2017 02:15 AM
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arkstfan Away
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Post: #22
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
(06-23-2017 08:32 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-23-2017 08:17 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  The question, does ESPN truly want to create that big a difference between the G5 conferences? Unless the AAC has other bidders, why would they give 4x the current contract? I could see doubling it with the an extra million to create the AAC studios but I think ESPN keeps the next contract as low as possible. I would be curious as to the break points for G5 games. If you are only paying a teams less than a million per team for a game verse 8 million what is the rating break even point. I don't know how TV works but I am just thinking, ESPN is still going to want similar profit margins they have with the current AAC contract with the payouts. Is that possible? Maybe the AAC does bring in the money to the network with the new payout or can paying, lets say the sunbelt moves to 100K to 250K, what do the ratings need to be to make the same profit margin? Again, this be may a completely unrealistic TV business model, I am just using simple economics.

Aresco said something in several interviews recently that I thought was pretty revealing, especially coming from a guy that ran a television sports division. He said ESPN isnt looking to get rid of contracts that make them lots of money. I think Aresco knows exactly how much money the AAC makes ESPN and if Aresco knows----Im reasonably sure---other networks know. Given their ratings track record and low price when compared to the P5----I think its extremely likely the AAC will have multiple bidders if they get to the open market. They would be cheap programming for NBC to pair with Notre Dame. They would be a very reaonably priced entry point for streamers like Amazon. I dont think ESPN is going to let the AAC get to the open maket.

AAC gives them content for a crap channel that struggles to find viewers (ESPN News) that the big boys do not like to be shown on. I suspect AAC even with the higher cost to produce a game vs studio crap and regurgitated highlights still makes more off three hours of an actual football game than they do from their regular content.
They also sell content to CBSSN, I was told they were getting "somewhere between $150,000 and $250,000 per game". My understanding is AAC gets a piece of that action now whether it is $1 per game or $100,000 no idea.

Assuming 70% of the AAC contract is for football (the proposed ratio before the C7 departed) and ESPN is allocating it that way on their books (which I doubt) and everyone plays 2 home non-conference games, that's 72 regular season games plus the title game for 73 games. 70% of $18 million is $12.6 million, divided by 73 would mean ESPN is carrying AAC on the books at $172,602.75 per football game. So if we split the baby on the numbers I was told that's $200,000 per game from CBSSN a profit of $27,397.26 per game sold before having to share any with AAC. So 14 games would be $383,561.64 profit for reselling or basically CBSSN in buying 14 games would be paying ESPN's cost for 16 games.

Now I suspect ESPN is NOT carrying AAC football on the books at that cost.

I suspect their math looks more like this 73 football games @ 3 hours each 219 hours. Roughly 100 hoops telecasts @ 2 hours each 200 hours, one article says guarantee of 18 women's telecasts on real tv @ 2 hours each 36, so total hours of "real TV" would 455(ish) divided into $18 million per year for $39,560.44 per hour or $118,681.32 per football game and$79,120.88 per hoops game or 48% allocated to football. Even at the low end of CBSSN range given ($150,000) would be a declared profit of $31,318.68 per sold football game and on their books selling 14 games at $150,000 would $2.1 million and would represent CBSSN taking 14 games while paying ESPN's book cost of almost 18 games. At $200,000 per game that would on book value be equal to CBS taking 14 games but paying for 23.6 games.

That's the beauty of ESPN buying the whole banana rather than paying to show X number of games, it makes the books look a lot better. Add in that they are selling like 30 hoops games even if they are selling the basketball games at a book loss to CBS (let's say $70,000 instead of the $79,120.88 I estimated they are carrying it on the books for) ESPN is taking a book loss of $9,120.88 in this hypo per hoops game sold times 30 is a paper loss of $273,626.40 that depending on contract terms might be used to offset the revenue share to AAC.

Again just spitballing some numbers but at $150,000 per game for football and $70,000 for hoops, CBSSN would be paying just over 45% of ESPN's cost (before subtracting revenue share) but would be taking only 19% of the football content and 30% of the hoops content or 22.4% of the hours of programming.
(This post was last modified: 06-24-2017 02:55 AM by arkstfan.)
06-24-2017 02:46 AM
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CougarRed Offline
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Post: #23
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
(06-24-2017 02:46 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  AAC gives them content for a crap channel that struggles to find viewers (ESPN News) that the big boys do not like to be shown on.

The American gives ESPN a lot more than that.

2016
Tier 1 = 26 games
4 games on ABC
6 on ESPN
6 on ESPN2
10 on ESPNU

Tier 2 = 30 games
15 on ESPNews
15 on CBSSN

2015
Tier 1 = 28 games
5 games on ABC
7 on ESPN
8 on ESPN2
8 on ESPNU

Tier 2 = 29 games
14 on ESPNews
15 on CBSSN

None of these count Navy. They will be added to the mix, will add value, and will have some Tier 1 games.

With ESPNews perhaps being converted to the ACC channel and taking some of the ACC games out of the ESPN2/ESPNU mix . . .

I wonder if the American will sign a Tier 1 deal with ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU for 30 games a year, and then sign a Tier 2 deal with CBSSN for another 30 games a year.

Or maybe the Tier 2 deal is split between CBSSN and some other TV partner.
(This post was last modified: 06-24-2017 10:17 AM by CougarRed.)
06-24-2017 09:59 AM
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Post: #24
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
(06-24-2017 09:59 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  I wonder if the American will sign a Tier 1 deal with ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU for 30 games a year, and then sign a Tier 2 deal with CBSSN for another 30 games a year.

Or maybe the Tier 2 deal is split between CBSSN and some other TV partner.

The Memphis AD has predicted multiple partners for the next deal. He also mentioned Amazon having interest in working with the AAC and that the commish has met with them (must be for tier 3 streaming if meeting now).
06-24-2017 11:25 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #25
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
(06-24-2017 11:25 AM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 09:59 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  I wonder if the American will sign a Tier 1 deal with ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU for 30 games a year, and then sign a Tier 2 deal with CBSSN for another 30 games a year.

Or maybe the Tier 2 deal is split between CBSSN and some other TV partner.

The Memphis AD has predicted multiple partners for the next deal. He also mentioned Amazon having interest in working with the AAC and that the commish has met with them (must be for tier 3 streaming if meeting now).

Aresco stated that the AAC was close to announcing a deal of some sort with a major streamer last year. Most assumed it would be Amazon, but nothing ever came of it as far as i know. I couldn't find the quote (may have been a radio interview), but I did find a quote where he mentions being in negotiations with Amazon to show some content as soon as 2016 in the SI piece below.

https://www.si.com/college-football/2016...-new-media
(This post was last modified: 06-24-2017 12:03 PM by Attackcoog.)
06-24-2017 11:55 AM
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Post: #26
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
AAC should follow the B1G's lead and sell about 25 games to ESPN - 2-3 games for ABC and some ESPN weeknight and ESPNU inventory. (No ESPNews). Then, take another 25 games to FOX, CBS, or NBC to get 2-3 more OTA games and FS1, CBSSN, or NBCSports inventory. That leaves 20 or so Tier 3 games to take to Amazon or Netflix.
06-24-2017 12:47 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #27
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
(06-24-2017 12:47 PM)YNot Wrote:  AAC should follow the B1G's lead and sell about 25 games to ESPN - 2-3 games for ABC and some ESPN weeknight and ESPNU inventory. (No ESPNews). Then, take another 25 games to FOX, CBS, or NBC to get 2-3 more OTA games and FS1, CBSSN, or NBCSports inventory. That leaves 20 or so Tier 3 games to take to Amazon or Netflix.

I'd be fine with that---I just don't think we will make it to the open market. I think that ESPN doesnt want the AAC on the open market. Its better for ESPN to keep ALL of that property. They now need more of it with half of their Big10 inventory gone and the possible loss of some ACC inventory when the ACC Network kicks off.

Better for ESPN to hold on to ALL that AAC inventory because---

1) They'll probably need it.

2) The AAC inventory is better than any other G5 alternative

3) The AAC inventory is much cheaper than any P5 alternative and offers great 'bang for the buck" (especially the top 20 games or so).

4) There are buyers for what ESPN doesnt need--so ESPN has the ability to offset some of the cost of the AAC payout.

5) They can control WHO gets the inventory if they maintain control over it.


Thus, I expect ESPN will make an early extension offer that is high enough that most of the AAC presidents will fear they MIGHT not get as much in the open market. I think ESPN will sweeten the deal by offering the AAC a well funded bowl slot vs a high selection from a P5 conference to serve as the AAC "anchor bowl" for the champ (or runner up). Those two items, plus the tremendous exposure currently enjoyed by the AAC schools, will have the AAC signing on to such an early extension offer and passing on the opportunity for a possible better deal in the open maket. ESPN wins by locking up needed inventory and by not having to get into a bidding battle if the AAC starts chopping up its inventory and selling it piecemeal to the highest bidder.
(This post was last modified: 06-24-2017 01:11 PM by Attackcoog.)
06-24-2017 01:04 PM
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Post: #28
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
(06-24-2017 01:04 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 12:47 PM)YNot Wrote:  AAC should follow the B1G's lead and sell about 25 games to ESPN - 2-3 games for ABC and some ESPN weeknight and ESPNU inventory. (No ESPNews). Then, take another 25 games to FOX, CBS, or NBC to get 2-3 more OTA games and FS1, CBSSN, or NBCSports inventory. That leaves 20 or so Tier 3 games to take to Amazon or Netflix.

I'd be fine with that---I just don't think we will make it to the open market. I think that ESPN doesnt want the AAC on the open market. Its better for ESPN to keep ALL of that property. They now need more of it with half of their Big10 inventory gone and the possible loss of some ACC inventory when the ACC Network kicks off.

Better for ESPN to hold on to ALL that AAC inventory because---

1) They'll probably need it.

2) The AAC inventory is better than any other G5 alternative

3) The AAC inventory is much cheaper than any P5 alternative and offers great 'bang for the buck" (especially the top 20 games or so).

4) There are buyers for what ESPN doesnt need--so ESPN has the ability to offset some of the cost of the AAC payout.

5) They can control WHO gets the inventory if they maintain control over it.


Thus, I expect ESPN will make an early extension offer that is high enough that most of the AAC presidents will fear they MIGHT not get as much in the open market. I think ESPN will sweeten the deal by offering the AAC a well funded bowl slot vs a high selection from a P5 conference to serve as the AAC "anchor bowl" for the champ (or runner up). Those two items, plus the tremendous exposure currently enjoyed by the AAC schools, will have the AAC signing on to such an early extension offer and passing on the opportunity for a possible better deal in the open maket. ESPN wins by locking up needed inventory and by not having to get into a bidding battle if the AAC starts chopping up its inventory and selling it piecemeal to the highest bidder.

I agree with this sentiment. I don't think ESPN would want AAC on open market. Even with an increase it would be a great deal and they can make up some of the cost via sublicensing. If the AAC goes piecemeal ESPN loses control and sublicensing opportunity
06-24-2017 02:01 PM
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Post: #29
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
(06-24-2017 01:04 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 12:47 PM)YNot Wrote:  AAC should follow the B1G's lead and sell about 25 games to ESPN - 2-3 games for ABC and some ESPN weeknight and ESPNU inventory. (No ESPNews). Then, take another 25 games to FOX, CBS, or NBC to get 2-3 more OTA games and FS1, CBSSN, or NBCSports inventory. That leaves 20 or so Tier 3 games to take to Amazon or Netflix.

I'd be fine with that---I just don't think we will make it to the open market. I think that ESPN doesnt want the AAC on the open market. Its better for ESPN to keep ALL of that property. They now need more of it with half of their Big10 inventory gone and the possible loss of some ACC inventory when the ACC Network kicks off.

Better for ESPN to hold on to ALL that AAC inventory because---

1) They'll probably need it.

2) The AAC inventory is better than any other G5 alternative

3) The AAC inventory is much cheaper than any P5 alternative and offers great 'bang for the buck" (especially the top 20 games or so).

4) There are buyers for what ESPN doesnt need--so ESPN has the ability to offset some of the cost of the AAC payout.

5) They can control WHO gets the inventory if they maintain control over it.


Thus, I expect ESPN will make an early extension offer that is high enough that most of the AAC presidents will fear they MIGHT not get as much in the open market. I think ESPN will sweeten the deal by offering the AAC a well funded bowl slot vs a high selection from a P5 conference to serve as the AAC "anchor bowl" for the champ (or runner up). Those two items, plus the tremendous exposure currently enjoyed by the AAC schools, will have the AAC signing on to such an early extension offer and passing on the opportunity for a possible better deal in the open maket. ESPN wins by locking up needed inventory and by not having to get into a bidding battle if the AAC starts chopping up its inventory and selling it piecemeal to the highest bidder.

ESPN does not lose any ACC inventory. The RSN and Raycom games are what move over in 2019.

As for the well funded ESPN bowl, the Texas Bowl is the only one with a decent payout. I doubt SEC or B12 is going to give that up for the AAC.

I could be wrong, I think AAC needs ESPN not the other way around. I just don't see ESPN giving th AAC any more than they have too or feel ESPN needs to help build the brand. Then again, I have stated I thought NBC would be the best landing place for the American if they truly wanted a power conference status. ESPN will always side with the P5 over the AAC.

I know what Aresco says but I have yet see Aresco deliver. Miami was going to get P5 team. Never happened and Bowl had to be sold to espn. Army/Navy part of tv contract, CBS owns it and Navy keeps the money. Basically gave the impression TV contract would be redone after year 3 and entering year 4 with ESPN getting other contracts extending othe contracts to end at the same time. Note, this is nothing against AAC schools but actually looking at Aresco accomplishments to date.

I have a feeling ESPN and others are going to keep status quo and wait for 2024 to see what the landscape will be. My prediction small bumps in payouts for all the G5 in this next round of TV talks, possibly even only a 5 year deal wth 6th option. Overall, no winners or losers, just status quo.
06-24-2017 02:09 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #30
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
(06-24-2017 02:09 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 01:04 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 12:47 PM)YNot Wrote:  AAC should follow the B1G's lead and sell about 25 games to ESPN - 2-3 games for ABC and some ESPN weeknight and ESPNU inventory. (No ESPNews). Then, take another 25 games to FOX, CBS, or NBC to get 2-3 more OTA games and FS1, CBSSN, or NBCSports inventory. That leaves 20 or so Tier 3 games to take to Amazon or Netflix.

I'd be fine with that---I just don't think we will make it to the open market. I think that ESPN doesnt want the AAC on the open market. Its better for ESPN to keep ALL of that property. They now need more of it with half of their Big10 inventory gone and the possible loss of some ACC inventory when the ACC Network kicks off.

Better for ESPN to hold on to ALL that AAC inventory because---

1) They'll probably need it.

2) The AAC inventory is better than any other G5 alternative

3) The AAC inventory is much cheaper than any P5 alternative and offers great 'bang for the buck" (especially the top 20 games or so).

4) There are buyers for what ESPN doesnt need--so ESPN has the ability to offset some of the cost of the AAC payout.

5) They can control WHO gets the inventory if they maintain control over it.


Thus, I expect ESPN will make an early extension offer that is high enough that most of the AAC presidents will fear they MIGHT not get as much in the open market. I think ESPN will sweeten the deal by offering the AAC a well funded bowl slot vs a high selection from a P5 conference to serve as the AAC "anchor bowl" for the champ (or runner up). Those two items, plus the tremendous exposure currently enjoyed by the AAC schools, will have the AAC signing on to such an early extension offer and passing on the opportunity for a possible better deal in the open maket. ESPN wins by locking up needed inventory and by not having to get into a bidding battle if the AAC starts chopping up its inventory and selling it piecemeal to the highest bidder.

ESPN does not lose any ACC inventory. The RSN and Raycom games are what move over in 2019.

As for the well funded ESPN bowl, the Texas Bowl is the only one with a decent payout. I doubt SEC or B12 is going to give that up for the AAC.

I could be wrong, I think AAC needs ESPN not the other way around. I just don't see ESPN giving th AAC any more than they have too or feel ESPN needs to help build the brand. Then again, I have stated I thought NBC would be the best landing place for the American if they truly wanted a power conference status. ESPN will always side with the P5 over the AAC.

I know what Aresco says but I have yet see Aresco deliver. Miami was going to get P5 team. Never happened and Bowl had to be sold to espn. Army/Navy part of tv contract, CBS owns it and Navy keeps the money. Basically gave the impression TV contract would be redone after year 3 and entering year 4 with ESPN getting other contracts extending othe contracts to end at the same time. Note, this is nothing against AAC schools but actually looking at Aresco accomplishments to date.

I have a feeling ESPN and others are going to keep status quo and wait for 2024 to see what the landscape will be. My prediction small bumps in payouts for all the G5 in this next round of TV talks, possibly even only a 5 year deal wth 6th option. Overall, no winners or losers, just status quo.

1). Matt Sarzniak seems to think ESPN might lose a little to the ACC network--but either way, I don't think it will be a big factor.

2). For ESPN to give the AAC a high payout anchor bowl---they just need to create a bowl with a payout high enough to attract a high P5 pick. Doesn't necessarily have to be an bowl that currently has a high payout. As I said---it's a sweetener. Kicking a 2 million payout to a 6 million payout is cheaper than adding an extra million a team to the AAC contract---and delivering a P5 opponent is something ESPN can pull off (more importantly, it's something the AAC couldn't do on thier own).

3). I agree. ESPN will try to get the AAC for as little as possible. Low balling might work....if there are really no other bidders and the AAC doesn't really make ESPN money. But---If the AAC makes ESPN a lot of money, then there will be competing bidders and the open market will set the price. A low bid for early renewal guarantees the AAC goes to the open market---which is where the AAC could maximize value by splitting thier content among multiple networks. Basically---the difference in our views is I just don't think the AAC is as unwanted as you do.
(This post was last modified: 06-24-2017 03:51 PM by Attackcoog.)
06-24-2017 03:46 PM
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Post: #31
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
(06-24-2017 03:46 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 02:09 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 01:04 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 12:47 PM)YNot Wrote:  AAC should follow the B1G's lead and sell about 25 games to ESPN - 2-3 games for ABC and some ESPN weeknight and ESPNU inventory. (No ESPNews). Then, take another 25 games to FOX, CBS, or NBC to get 2-3 more OTA games and FS1, CBSSN, or NBCSports inventory. That leaves 20 or so Tier 3 games to take to Amazon or Netflix.

I'd be fine with that---I just don't think we will make it to the open market. I think that ESPN doesnt want the AAC on the open market. Its better for ESPN to keep ALL of that property. They now need more of it with half of their Big10 inventory gone and the possible loss of some ACC inventory when the ACC Network kicks off.

Better for ESPN to hold on to ALL that AAC inventory because---

1) They'll probably need it.

2) The AAC inventory is better than any other G5 alternative

3) The AAC inventory is much cheaper than any P5 alternative and offers great 'bang for the buck" (especially the top 20 games or so).

4) There are buyers for what ESPN doesnt need--so ESPN has the ability to offset some of the cost of the AAC payout.

5) They can control WHO gets the inventory if they maintain control over it.


Thus, I expect ESPN will make an early extension offer that is high enough that most of the AAC presidents will fear they MIGHT not get as much in the open market. I think ESPN will sweeten the deal by offering the AAC a well funded bowl slot vs a high selection from a P5 conference to serve as the AAC "anchor bowl" for the champ (or runner up). Those two items, plus the tremendous exposure currently enjoyed by the AAC schools, will have the AAC signing on to such an early extension offer and passing on the opportunity for a possible better deal in the open maket. ESPN wins by locking up needed inventory and by not having to get into a bidding battle if the AAC starts chopping up its inventory and selling it piecemeal to the highest bidder.

ESPN does not lose any ACC inventory. The RSN and Raycom games are what move over in 2019.

As for the well funded ESPN bowl, the Texas Bowl is the only one with a decent payout. I doubt SEC or B12 is going to give that up for the AAC.

I could be wrong, I think AAC needs ESPN not the other way around. I just don't see ESPN giving th AAC any more than they have too or feel ESPN needs to help build the brand. Then again, I have stated I thought NBC would be the best landing place for the American if they truly wanted a power conference status. ESPN will always side with the P5 over the AAC.

I know what Aresco says but I have yet see Aresco deliver. Miami was going to get P5 team. Never happened and Bowl had to be sold to espn. Army/Navy part of tv contract, CBS owns it and Navy keeps the money. Basically gave the impression TV contract would be redone after year 3 and entering year 4 with ESPN getting other contracts extending othe contracts to end at the same time. Note, this is nothing against AAC schools but actually looking at Aresco accomplishments to date.

I have a feeling ESPN and others are going to keep status quo and wait for 2024 to see what the landscape will be. My prediction small bumps in payouts for all the G5 in this next round of TV talks, possibly even only a 5 year deal wth 6th option. Overall, no winners or losers, just status quo.

1). Matt Sarzniak seems to think ESPN might lose a little to the ACC network--but either way, I don't think it will be a big factor.

2). For ESPN to give the AAC a high payout anchor bowl---they just need to create a bowl with a payout high enough to attract a high P5 pick. Doesn't necessarily have to be an bowl that currently has a high payout. As I said---it's a sweetener. Kicking a 2 million payout to a 6 million payout is cheaper than adding an extra million a team to the AAC contract---and delivering a P5 opponent is something ESPN can pull off (more importantly, it's something the AAC couldn't do on thier own).

3). I agree. ESPN will try to get the AAC for as little as possible. Low balling might work....if there are really no other bidders and the AAC doesn't really make ESPN money. But---If the AAC makes ESPN a lot of money, then there will be competing bidders and the open market will set the price. A low bid for early renewal guarantees the AAC goes to the open market---which is where the AAC could maximize value by splitting thier content among multiple networks. Basically---the difference in our views is I just don't think the AAC is as unwanted as you do.

If you are right AC, and ESPN doesn't allow this to go to the open market then the "extension" needs to happen now. Only 3 years left on the contract so any extension has to come before the 2017 football season kicks off. In 2 months....You think it'll happen that way? I have no idea, I want your opinion if you think Aresco and ESPN are talking about this right now?
06-24-2017 04:00 PM
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panite Offline
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Post: #32
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
(06-23-2017 03:33 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  
(06-23-2017 02:59 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  ESPN is guaranteed to find BYU a bowl. If all the other conferences fill their contracted ESPN bowl slots, then ESPN HAS to place BYU in Frisco Bowl.

What happened to the SBC spot in the Frisco Bowl?

They would still have it by contract. At large for BYU would come if none of the contacted bowls could fill it. Besides ESPN would find a larger / better bowl for BYU before getting down to the Frisco Bowl just because of their long term commitment to BYU past and present. 04-cheers
06-24-2017 04:36 PM
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Post: #33
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
(06-24-2017 04:36 PM)panite Wrote:  
(06-23-2017 03:33 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  
(06-23-2017 02:59 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  ESPN is guaranteed to find BYU a bowl. If all the other conferences fill their contracted ESPN bowl slots, then ESPN HAS to place BYU in Frisco Bowl.

What happened to the SBC spot in the Frisco Bowl?

They would still have it by contract. At large for BYU would come if none of the contacted bowls could fill it. Besides ESPN would find a larger / better bowl for BYU before getting down to the Frisco Bowl just because of their long term commitment to BYU past and present. 04-cheers

I'm bad and stand corrected on my own. Looks like the only contracted conference is:

Date : Dec. 20 Bowl : Frisco Conference tie-ins : American/At-large

Forgot the AAC had the option of picking any potential P5 school or equivalent (BYU, Army) over any other G5 conference school first since the AAC owned the bowl. So it appears in the sale of the bowl to ESPN Aresco went strictly with the at large option for the remainder of the contract. Hope he got something for it like better bowl options in the ESPN Treasury Box. 04-jawdrop 02-13-banana 04-rock 05-stirthepot 07-coffee3 04-cheers
(This post was last modified: 06-24-2017 04:50 PM by panite.)
06-24-2017 04:49 PM
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msm96wolf Offline
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Post: #34
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
(06-24-2017 03:46 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 02:09 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 01:04 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 12:47 PM)YNot Wrote:  AAC should follow the B1G's lead and sell about 25 games to ESPN - 2-3 games for ABC and some ESPN weeknight and ESPNU inventory. (No ESPNews). Then, take another 25 games to FOX, CBS, or NBC to get 2-3 more OTA games and FS1, CBSSN, or NBCSports inventory. That leaves 20 or so Tier 3 games to take to Amazon or Netflix.

I'd be fine with that---I just don't think we will make it to the open market. I think that ESPN doesnt want the AAC on the open market. Its better for ESPN to keep ALL of that property. They now need more of it with half of their Big10 inventory gone and the possible loss of some ACC inventory when the ACC Network kicks off.

Better for ESPN to hold on to ALL that AAC inventory because---

1) They'll probably need it.

2) The AAC inventory is better than any other G5 alternative

3) The AAC inventory is much cheaper than any P5 alternative and offers great 'bang for the buck" (especially the top 20 games or so).

4) There are buyers for what ESPN doesnt need--so ESPN has the ability to offset some of the cost of the AAC payout.

5) They can control WHO gets the inventory if they maintain control over it.


Thus, I expect ESPN will make an early extension offer that is high enough that most of the AAC presidents will fear they MIGHT not get as much in the open market. I think ESPN will sweeten the deal by offering the AAC a well funded bowl slot vs a high selection from a P5 conference to serve as the AAC "anchor bowl" for the champ (or runner up). Those two items, plus the tremendous exposure currently enjoyed by the AAC schools, will have the AAC signing on to such an early extension offer and passing on the opportunity for a possible better deal in the open maket. ESPN wins by locking up needed inventory and by not having to get into a bidding battle if the AAC starts chopping up its inventory and selling it piecemeal to the highest bidder.

ESPN does not lose any ACC inventory. The RSN and Raycom games are what move over in 2019.

As for the well funded ESPN bowl, the Texas Bowl is the only one with a decent payout. I doubt SEC or B12 is going to give that up for the AAC.

I could be wrong, I think AAC needs ESPN not the other way around. I just don't see ESPN giving th AAC any more than they have too or feel ESPN needs to help build the brand. Then again, I have stated I thought NBC would be the best landing place for the American if they truly wanted a power conference status. ESPN will always side with the P5 over the AAC.

I know what Aresco says but I have yet see Aresco deliver. Miami was going to get P5 team. Never happened and Bowl had to be sold to espn. Army/Navy part of tv contract, CBS owns it and Navy keeps the money. Basically gave the impression TV contract would be redone after year 3 and entering year 4 with ESPN getting other contracts extending othe contracts to end at the same time. Note, this is nothing against AAC schools but actually looking at Aresco accomplishments to date.

I have a feeling ESPN and others are going to keep status quo and wait for 2024 to see what the landscape will be. My prediction small bumps in payouts for all the G5 in this next round of TV talks, possibly even only a 5 year deal wth 6th option. Overall, no winners or losers, just status quo.

1). Matt Sarzniak seems to think ESPN might lose a little to the ACC network--but either way, I don't think it will be a big factor.

2). For ESPN to give the AAC a high payout anchor bowl---they just need to create a bowl with a payout high enough to attract a high P5 pick. Doesn't necessarily have to be an bowl that currently has a high payout. As I said---it's a sweetener. Kicking a 2 million payout to a 6 million payout is cheaper than adding an extra million a team to the AAC contract---and delivering a P5 opponent is something ESPN can pull off (more importantly, it's something the AAC couldn't do on thier own).

3). I agree. ESPN will try to get the AAC for as little as possible. Low balling might work....if there are really no other bidders and the AAC doesn't really make ESPN money. But---If the AAC makes ESPN a lot of money, then there will be competing bidders and the open market will set the price. A low bid for early renewal guarantees the AAC goes to the open market---which is where the AAC could maximize value by splitting thier content among multiple networks. Basically---the difference in our views is I just don't think the AAC is as unwanted as you do.

AC,

Don't take by analytical apprach as I don't think the AAC is not wanted. Much like the Godfather saying goes, "it is not personal, it is business" I think we can agree I have been an advocate for the AAC next contract to be with NBC, I think they will appreciate the AAC. ESPN has far to much invested in the P5s than they do with the AAC. AAC will always be the red headed stepchild with ESPN. Or Fredo staying with the Godfather reference.

One thing that has snakebit the AAC since day one is timing. I think it basically agreed upon by most college football people that 2024 will probably be the year when the major decisions happen for the next realignment phase. Why I think the TV contracts will not bring in the major increases and the bowl idea not likely to happen. P5s already have their bowl money and I don't think you see that many changes in bowl and tie-ins this next go round.


Basically, the B12 GOR is up. I think one of two things happen

B12 survives intact and adds up to four teams from the AAC and MW. (Probably not good for Houston)

or

B12 loses teams and becomes a new tweener conference basically raiding the AAC and MW. (Probably far better for Houston)

Using my highly cloud crystal ball this is what I could see happen. CFP will still exist to avoid anti-trust but it now becomes the P4.



Texas, OSU, OU and TT bolt to the P12.

Leaving the B12 at 6 teams.
The CFP agrees to allow B12 to have Orange bowl game swapping Sugar with the ACC to play the G5 Champ New Years Eve.
B12 will get about half of what the other four get of the P4.

B12 brings in six - 8 teams (My guess 3 MWC and 5 AAC)

Not using crossover rivalry games
Big vs 12
SDSU -WVU
CSU - ISU
Boise - KS
Houston - TCU
Baylor - SMU
USF - UCF
Tulsa - Cinci


AAC and MWC ROB raid CUSA to get back to 10+ teams to keep CCG.

CUSA brings up some FCS teams to get back to 10 similar to the Sun Belt. CUSA can afford to lose 4 teams before needing to bring teams up.
04-cheers
06-24-2017 05:14 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #35
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
(06-24-2017 04:00 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 03:46 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 02:09 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 01:04 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 12:47 PM)YNot Wrote:  AAC should follow the B1G's lead and sell about 25 games to ESPN - 2-3 games for ABC and some ESPN weeknight and ESPNU inventory. (No ESPNews). Then, take another 25 games to FOX, CBS, or NBC to get 2-3 more OTA games and FS1, CBSSN, or NBCSports inventory. That leaves 20 or so Tier 3 games to take to Amazon or Netflix.

I'd be fine with that---I just don't think we will make it to the open market. I think that ESPN doesnt want the AAC on the open market. Its better for ESPN to keep ALL of that property. They now need more of it with half of their Big10 inventory gone and the possible loss of some ACC inventory when the ACC Network kicks off.

Better for ESPN to hold on to ALL that AAC inventory because---

1) They'll probably need it.

2) The AAC inventory is better than any other G5 alternative

3) The AAC inventory is much cheaper than any P5 alternative and offers great 'bang for the buck" (especially the top 20 games or so).

4) There are buyers for what ESPN doesnt need--so ESPN has the ability to offset some of the cost of the AAC payout.

5) They can control WHO gets the inventory if they maintain control over it.


Thus, I expect ESPN will make an early extension offer that is high enough that most of the AAC presidents will fear they MIGHT not get as much in the open market. I think ESPN will sweeten the deal by offering the AAC a well funded bowl slot vs a high selection from a P5 conference to serve as the AAC "anchor bowl" for the champ (or runner up). Those two items, plus the tremendous exposure currently enjoyed by the AAC schools, will have the AAC signing on to such an early extension offer and passing on the opportunity for a possible better deal in the open maket. ESPN wins by locking up needed inventory and by not having to get into a bidding battle if the AAC starts chopping up its inventory and selling it piecemeal to the highest bidder.

ESPN does not lose any ACC inventory. The RSN and Raycom games are what move over in 2019.

As for the well funded ESPN bowl, the Texas Bowl is the only one with a decent payout. I doubt SEC or B12 is going to give that up for the AAC.

I could be wrong, I think AAC needs ESPN not the other way around. I just don't see ESPN giving th AAC any more than they have too or feel ESPN needs to help build the brand. Then again, I have stated I thought NBC would be the best landing place for the American if they truly wanted a power conference status. ESPN will always side with the P5 over the AAC.

I know what Aresco says but I have yet see Aresco deliver. Miami was going to get P5 team. Never happened and Bowl had to be sold to espn. Army/Navy part of tv contract, CBS owns it and Navy keeps the money. Basically gave the impression TV contract would be redone after year 3 and entering year 4 with ESPN getting other contracts extending othe contracts to end at the same time. Note, this is nothing against AAC schools but actually looking at Aresco accomplishments to date.

I have a feeling ESPN and others are going to keep status quo and wait for 2024 to see what the landscape will be. My prediction small bumps in payouts for all the G5 in this next round of TV talks, possibly even only a 5 year deal wth 6th option. Overall, no winners or losers, just status quo.

1). Matt Sarzniak seems to think ESPN might lose a little to the ACC network--but either way, I don't think it will be a big factor.

2). For ESPN to give the AAC a high payout anchor bowl---they just need to create a bowl with a payout high enough to attract a high P5 pick. Doesn't necessarily have to be an bowl that currently has a high payout. As I said---it's a sweetener. Kicking a 2 million payout to a 6 million payout is cheaper than adding an extra million a team to the AAC contract---and delivering a P5 opponent is something ESPN can pull off (more importantly, it's something the AAC couldn't do on thier own).

3). I agree. ESPN will try to get the AAC for as little as possible. Low balling might work....if there are really no other bidders and the AAC doesn't really make ESPN money. But---If the AAC makes ESPN a lot of money, then there will be competing bidders and the open market will set the price. A low bid for early renewal guarantees the AAC goes to the open market---which is where the AAC could maximize value by splitting thier content among multiple networks. Basically---the difference in our views is I just don't think the AAC is as unwanted as you do.

If you are right AC, and ESPN doesn't allow this to go to the open market then the "extension" needs to happen now. Only 3 years left on the contract so any extension has to come before the 2017 football season kicks off. In 2 months....You think it'll happen that way? I have no idea, I want your opinion if you think Aresco and ESPN are talking about this right now?

Its been my feeling for a while that if ESPN was going to try and get the AAC for the lowest price possible---now would be the time to do it. Toss out a 5 million per year offer with the early money starting in 2017.

2017-5th yr old contract moves to 3 million a team rather than 2
2018-6th yr old contract moves to 4 million a team rather than 2
2019-Last yr of old contract stays at 4 million
2020-New 6 year deal begins at 5 million a year.

That brings in extra money early and is at the low end of the expected range. It's less per year than the AAC could probably get on the open market---but extra money begins immediately. Such a deal would be---420 million total value/5 million per team per yr on new deal/5 million per team early. Total value per team/35 million.

If they wait, the price would likely need to be around 6-7 million to forgo the open market and could be 8-10 to retain everything if things break right for the AAC on the open market (or it could be less---who knows?). My opinion is it gets progressively more expensive for ESPN to hold onto the entire package of AAC rights if they wait past this summer. Below are the values of a 6 year deal done starting in 2020 with no early money at different price points. Keep in mind, I think 6-7 minimum is required to keep the old BE teams (who wont have any more realignment money coming in) to forgo trying their luck on the open market. I think it also requires at least 4 million or so to keep UConn from heading to Big East (a hurdle I think the new deal will easily clear).

6-million per team/432 million 36 million per team over life of deal (nothing early)
7-million per team/504 million 42 million per team over life of deal "
8-million per team/576 million 48 million per team over life of deal "
9-million per team/648 million 54 million per team over life of deal "
10-million per team/720 million 60 million per team over life of deal "

Those numbers are why I thought we'd see an early deal this summer. However, back last December Aresco mentioned wanting to approach ESPN in a "few weeks" about a new deal. Aresco said less than a month ago (radio interview) that they were looking at 2019 to work out a new deal--but would talk earlier. So, I have to assume they didn't speak in Dec and nothing is going on now. Maybe ESPN thinks they can get us for 6 million a team in 2019---thus there isn't enough savings to be worth an early extension.
(This post was last modified: 06-24-2017 05:42 PM by Attackcoog.)
06-24-2017 05:24 PM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #36
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
(06-24-2017 05:14 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 03:46 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 02:09 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 01:04 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 12:47 PM)YNot Wrote:  AAC should follow the B1G's lead and sell about 25 games to ESPN - 2-3 games for ABC and some ESPN weeknight and ESPNU inventory. (No ESPNews). Then, take another 25 games to FOX, CBS, or NBC to get 2-3 more OTA games and FS1, CBSSN, or NBCSports inventory. That leaves 20 or so Tier 3 games to take to Amazon or Netflix.

I'd be fine with that---I just don't think we will make it to the open market. I think that ESPN doesnt want the AAC on the open market. Its better for ESPN to keep ALL of that property. They now need more of it with half of their Big10 inventory gone and the possible loss of some ACC inventory when the ACC Network kicks off.

Better for ESPN to hold on to ALL that AAC inventory because---

1) They'll probably need it.

2) The AAC inventory is better than any other G5 alternative

3) The AAC inventory is much cheaper than any P5 alternative and offers great 'bang for the buck" (especially the top 20 games or so).

4) There are buyers for what ESPN doesnt need--so ESPN has the ability to offset some of the cost of the AAC payout.

5) They can control WHO gets the inventory if they maintain control over it.


Thus, I expect ESPN will make an early extension offer that is high enough that most of the AAC presidents will fear they MIGHT not get as much in the open market. I think ESPN will sweeten the deal by offering the AAC a well funded bowl slot vs a high selection from a P5 conference to serve as the AAC "anchor bowl" for the champ (or runner up). Those two items, plus the tremendous exposure currently enjoyed by the AAC schools, will have the AAC signing on to such an early extension offer and passing on the opportunity for a possible better deal in the open maket. ESPN wins by locking up needed inventory and by not having to get into a bidding battle if the AAC starts chopping up its inventory and selling it piecemeal to the highest bidder.

ESPN does not lose any ACC inventory. The RSN and Raycom games are what move over in 2019.

As for the well funded ESPN bowl, the Texas Bowl is the only one with a decent payout. I doubt SEC or B12 is going to give that up for the AAC.

I could be wrong, I think AAC needs ESPN not the other way around. I just don't see ESPN giving th AAC any more than they have too or feel ESPN needs to help build the brand. Then again, I have stated I thought NBC would be the best landing place for the American if they truly wanted a power conference status. ESPN will always side with the P5 over the AAC.

I know what Aresco says but I have yet see Aresco deliver. Miami was going to get P5 team. Never happened and Bowl had to be sold to espn. Army/Navy part of tv contract, CBS owns it and Navy keeps the money. Basically gave the impression TV contract would be redone after year 3 and entering year 4 with ESPN getting other contracts extending othe contracts to end at the same time. Note, this is nothing against AAC schools but actually looking at Aresco accomplishments to date.

I have a feeling ESPN and others are going to keep status quo and wait for 2024 to see what the landscape will be. My prediction small bumps in payouts for all the G5 in this next round of TV talks, possibly even only a 5 year deal wth 6th option. Overall, no winners or losers, just status quo.

1). Matt Sarzniak seems to think ESPN might lose a little to the ACC network--but either way, I don't think it will be a big factor.

2). For ESPN to give the AAC a high payout anchor bowl---they just need to create a bowl with a payout high enough to attract a high P5 pick. Doesn't necessarily have to be an bowl that currently has a high payout. As I said---it's a sweetener. Kicking a 2 million payout to a 6 million payout is cheaper than adding an extra million a team to the AAC contract---and delivering a P5 opponent is something ESPN can pull off (more importantly, it's something the AAC couldn't do on thier own).

3). I agree. ESPN will try to get the AAC for as little as possible. Low balling might work....if there are really no other bidders and the AAC doesn't really make ESPN money. But---If the AAC makes ESPN a lot of money, then there will be competing bidders and the open market will set the price. A low bid for early renewal guarantees the AAC goes to the open market---which is where the AAC could maximize value by splitting thier content among multiple networks. Basically---the difference in our views is I just don't think the AAC is as unwanted as you do.

AC,

Don't take by analytical apprach as I don't think the AAC is not wanted. Much like the Godfather saying goes, "it is not personal, it is business" I think we can agree I have been an advocate for the AAC next contract to be with NBC, I think they will appreciate the AAC. ESPN has far to much invested in the P5s than they do with the AAC. AAC will always be the red headed stepchild with ESPN. Or Fredo staying with the Godfather reference.

One thing that has snakebit the AAC since day one is timing. I think it basically agreed upon by most college football people that 2024 will probably be the year when the major decisions happen for the next realignment phase. Why I think the TV contracts will not bring in the major increases and the bowl idea not likely to happen. P5s already have their bowl money and I don't think you see that many changes in bowl and tie-ins this next go round.


Basically, the B12 GOR is up. I think one of two things happen

B12 survives intact and adds up to four teams from the AAC and MW. (Probably not good for Houston)

or

B12 loses teams and becomes a new tweener conference basically raiding the AAC and MW. (Probably far better for Houston)

Using my highly cloud crystal ball this is what I could see happen. CFP will still exist to avoid anti-trust but it now becomes the P4.



Texas, OSU, OU and TT bolt to the P12.

Leaving the B12 at 6 teams.
The CFP agrees to allow B12 to have Orange bowl game swapping Sugar with the ACC to play the G5 Champ New Years Eve.
B12 will get about half of what the other four get of the P4.

B12 brings in six - 8 teams (My guess 3 MWC and 5 AAC)

Not using crossover rivalry games
Big vs 12
SDSU -WVU
CSU - ISU
Boise - KS
Houston - TCU
Baylor - SMU
USF - UCF
Tulsa - Cinci


AAC and MWC ROB raid CUSA to get back to 10+ teams to keep CCG.

CUSA brings up some FCS teams to get back to 10 similar to the Sun Belt. CUSA can afford to lose 4 teams before needing to bring teams up.
04-cheers

That was a long post for you to say the one thing you really wanted to say:
ACC gets to play in the Sugar Bowl vs the SEC instead of the Big 12. Right?
My prediction: Big 12 continues to play the SEC in the Sugar Bowl and PAC plays Big 10 in the Rose Bowl leaving the ACC with the Orange Bowl vs a runner up or 3rd place team from the Big 10 or SEC.
Remember, The ACC BARELY GOT THAT in the last CFP arrangement, so I'd just be happy with that rather than hope to kick the Big 12 out of their "champions Bowl" arrangement with the SEC.
ACC vs the AAC in the Orange Bowl, how about that?
(This post was last modified: 06-24-2017 06:16 PM by billybobby777.)
06-24-2017 06:13 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #37
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
(06-24-2017 05:14 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 03:46 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 02:09 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 01:04 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 12:47 PM)YNot Wrote:  AAC should follow the B1G's lead and sell about 25 games to ESPN - 2-3 games for ABC and some ESPN weeknight and ESPNU inventory. (No ESPNews). Then, take another 25 games to FOX, CBS, or NBC to get 2-3 more OTA games and FS1, CBSSN, or NBCSports inventory. That leaves 20 or so Tier 3 games to take to Amazon or Netflix.

I'd be fine with that---I just don't think we will make it to the open market. I think that ESPN doesnt want the AAC on the open market. Its better for ESPN to keep ALL of that property. They now need more of it with half of their Big10 inventory gone and the possible loss of some ACC inventory when the ACC Network kicks off.

Better for ESPN to hold on to ALL that AAC inventory because---

1) They'll probably need it.

2) The AAC inventory is better than any other G5 alternative

3) The AAC inventory is much cheaper than any P5 alternative and offers great 'bang for the buck" (especially the top 20 games or so).

4) There are buyers for what ESPN doesnt need--so ESPN has the ability to offset some of the cost of the AAC payout.

5) They can control WHO gets the inventory if they maintain control over it.


Thus, I expect ESPN will make an early extension offer that is high enough that most of the AAC presidents will fear they MIGHT not get as much in the open market. I think ESPN will sweeten the deal by offering the AAC a well funded bowl slot vs a high selection from a P5 conference to serve as the AAC "anchor bowl" for the champ (or runner up). Those two items, plus the tremendous exposure currently enjoyed by the AAC schools, will have the AAC signing on to such an early extension offer and passing on the opportunity for a possible better deal in the open maket. ESPN wins by locking up needed inventory and by not having to get into a bidding battle if the AAC starts chopping up its inventory and selling it piecemeal to the highest bidder.

ESPN does not lose any ACC inventory. The RSN and Raycom games are what move over in 2019.

As for the well funded ESPN bowl, the Texas Bowl is the only one with a decent payout. I doubt SEC or B12 is going to give that up for the AAC.

I could be wrong, I think AAC needs ESPN not the other way around. I just don't see ESPN giving th AAC any more than they have too or feel ESPN needs to help build the brand. Then again, I have stated I thought NBC would be the best landing place for the American if they truly wanted a power conference status. ESPN will always side with the P5 over the AAC.

I know what Aresco says but I have yet see Aresco deliver. Miami was going to get P5 team. Never happened and Bowl had to be sold to espn. Army/Navy part of tv contract, CBS owns it and Navy keeps the money. Basically gave the impression TV contract would be redone after year 3 and entering year 4 with ESPN getting other contracts extending othe contracts to end at the same time. Note, this is nothing against AAC schools but actually looking at Aresco accomplishments to date.

I have a feeling ESPN and others are going to keep status quo and wait for 2024 to see what the landscape will be. My prediction small bumps in payouts for all the G5 in this next round of TV talks, possibly even only a 5 year deal wth 6th option. Overall, no winners or losers, just status quo.

1). Matt Sarzniak seems to think ESPN might lose a little to the ACC network--but either way, I don't think it will be a big factor.

2). For ESPN to give the AAC a high payout anchor bowl---they just need to create a bowl with a payout high enough to attract a high P5 pick. Doesn't necessarily have to be an bowl that currently has a high payout. As I said---it's a sweetener. Kicking a 2 million payout to a 6 million payout is cheaper than adding an extra million a team to the AAC contract---and delivering a P5 opponent is something ESPN can pull off (more importantly, it's something the AAC couldn't do on thier own).

3). I agree. ESPN will try to get the AAC for as little as possible. Low balling might work....if there are really no other bidders and the AAC doesn't really make ESPN money. But---If the AAC makes ESPN a lot of money, then there will be competing bidders and the open market will set the price. A low bid for early renewal guarantees the AAC goes to the open market---which is where the AAC could maximize value by splitting thier content among multiple networks. Basically---the difference in our views is I just don't think the AAC is as unwanted as you do.

AC,

Don't take by analytical apprach as I don't think the AAC is not wanted. Much like the Godfather saying goes, "it is not personal, it is business" I think we can agree I have been an advocate for the AAC next contract to be with NBC, I think they will appreciate the AAC. ESPN has far to much invested in the P5s than they do with the AAC. AAC will always be the red headed stepchild with ESPN. Or Fredo staying with the Godfather reference.

One thing that has snakebit the AAC since day one is timing. I think it basically agreed upon by most college football people that 2024 will probably be the year when the major decisions happen for the next realignment phase. Why I think the TV contracts will not bring in the major increases and the bowl idea not likely to happen. P5s already have their bowl money and I don't think you see that many changes in bowl and tie-ins this next go round.


Basically, the B12 GOR is up. I think one of two things happen

B12 survives intact and adds up to four teams from the AAC and MW. (Probably not good for Houston)

or

B12 loses teams and becomes a new tweener conference basically raiding the AAC and MW. (Probably far better for Houston)

Using my highly cloud crystal ball this is what I could see happen. CFP will still exist to avoid anti-trust but it now becomes the P4.



Texas, OSU, OU and TT bolt to the P12.

Leaving the B12 at 6 teams.
The CFP agrees to allow B12 to have Orange bowl game swapping Sugar with the ACC to play the G5 Champ New Years Eve.
B12 will get about half of what the other four get of the P4.

B12 brings in six - 8 teams (My guess 3 MWC and 5 AAC)

Not using crossover rivalry games
Big vs 12
SDSU -WVU
CSU - ISU
Boise - KS
Houston - TCU
Baylor - SMU
USF - UCF
Tulsa - Cinci


AAC and MWC ROB raid CUSA to get back to 10+ teams to keep CCG.

CUSA brings up some FCS teams to get back to 10 similar to the Sun Belt. CUSA can afford to lose 4 teams before needing to bring teams up.
04-cheers

Yup. If the Big12 survives intact and raids the AAC/MW for 2-4 teams it could leave us in a very diminished conference. That would be very bad news for us. Our only long term hope in that scenario is the Pac12 gives up their Ahab like quest for the Great White Whale (UT) and makes a play for Texas viewers using Houston and one other Texas school (maybe SMU?). All we can really do is to continue to try to make ourselves as attractive an expansion target as possible. 04-cheers
(This post was last modified: 06-24-2017 06:39 PM by Attackcoog.)
06-24-2017 06:36 PM
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msm96wolf Offline
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Post: #38
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
(06-24-2017 06:13 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 05:14 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 03:46 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 02:09 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 01:04 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I'd be fine with that---I just don't think we will make it to the open market. I think that ESPN doesnt want the AAC on the open market. Its better for ESPN to keep ALL of that property. They now need more of it with half of their Big10 inventory gone and the possible loss of some ACC inventory when the ACC Network kicks off.

Better for ESPN to hold on to ALL that AAC inventory because---

1) They'll probably need it.

2) The AAC inventory is better than any other G5 alternative

3) The AAC inventory is much cheaper than any P5 alternative and offers great 'bang for the buck" (especially the top 20 games or so).

4) There are buyers for what ESPN doesnt need--so ESPN has the ability to offset some of the cost of the AAC payout.

5) They can control WHO gets the inventory if they maintain control over it.


Thus, I expect ESPN will make an early extension offer that is high enough that most of the AAC presidents will fear they MIGHT not get as much in the open market. I think ESPN will sweeten the deal by offering the AAC a well funded bowl slot vs a high selection from a P5 conference to serve as the AAC "anchor bowl" for the champ (or runner up). Those two items, plus the tremendous exposure currently enjoyed by the AAC schools, will have the AAC signing on to such an early extension offer and passing on the opportunity for a possible better deal in the open maket. ESPN wins by locking up needed inventory and by not having to get into a bidding battle if the AAC starts chopping up its inventory and selling it piecemeal to the highest bidder.

ESPN does not lose any ACC inventory. The RSN and Raycom games are what move over in 2019.

As for the well funded ESPN bowl, the Texas Bowl is the only one with a decent payout. I doubt SEC or B12 is going to give that up for the AAC.

I could be wrong, I think AAC needs ESPN not the other way around. I just don't see ESPN giving th AAC any more than they have too or feel ESPN needs to help build the brand. Then again, I have stated I thought NBC would be the best landing place for the American if they truly wanted a power conference status. ESPN will always side with the P5 over the AAC.

I know what Aresco says but I have yet see Aresco deliver. Miami was going to get P5 team. Never happened and Bowl had to be sold to espn. Army/Navy part of tv contract, CBS owns it and Navy keeps the money. Basically gave the impression TV contract would be redone after year 3 and entering year 4 with ESPN getting other contracts extending othe contracts to end at the same time. Note, this is nothing against AAC schools but actually looking at Aresco accomplishments to date.

I have a feeling ESPN and others are going to keep status quo and wait for 2024 to see what the landscape will be. My prediction small bumps in payouts for all the G5 in this next round of TV talks, possibly even only a 5 year deal wth 6th option. Overall, no winners or losers, just status quo.

1). Matt Sarzniak seems to think ESPN might lose a little to the ACC network--but either way, I don't think it will be a big factor.

2). For ESPN to give the AAC a high payout anchor bowl---they just need to create a bowl with a payout high enough to attract a high P5 pick. Doesn't necessarily have to be an bowl that currently has a high payout. As I said---it's a sweetener. Kicking a 2 million payout to a 6 million payout is cheaper than adding an extra million a team to the AAC contract---and delivering a P5 opponent is something ESPN can pull off (more importantly, it's something the AAC couldn't do on thier own).

3). I agree. ESPN will try to get the AAC for as little as possible. Low balling might work....if there are really no other bidders and the AAC doesn't really make ESPN money. But---If the AAC makes ESPN a lot of money, then there will be competing bidders and the open market will set the price. A low bid for early renewal guarantees the AAC goes to the open market---which is where the AAC could maximize value by splitting thier content among multiple networks. Basically---the difference in our views is I just don't think the AAC is as unwanted as you do.

AC,

Don't take by analytical apprach as I don't think the AAC is not wanted. Much like the Godfather saying goes, "it is not personal, it is business" I think we can agree I have been an advocate for the AAC next contract to be with NBC, I think they will appreciate the AAC. ESPN has far to much invested in the P5s than they do with the AAC. AAC will always be the red headed stepchild with ESPN. Or Fredo staying with the Godfather reference.

One thing that has snakebit the AAC since day one is timing. I think it basically agreed upon by most college football people that 2024 will probably be the year when the major decisions happen for the next realignment phase. Why I think the TV contracts will not bring in the major increases and the bowl idea not likely to happen. P5s already have their bowl money and I don't think you see that many changes in bowl and tie-ins this next go round.


Basically, the B12 GOR is up. I think one of two things happen

B12 survives intact and adds up to four teams from the AAC and MW. (Probably not good for Houston)

or

B12 loses teams and becomes a new tweener conference basically raiding the AAC and MW. (Probably far better for Houston)

Using my highly cloud crystal ball this is what I could see happen. CFP will still exist to avoid anti-trust but it now becomes the P4.



Texas, OSU, OU and TT bolt to the P12.

Leaving the B12 at 6 teams.
The CFP agrees to allow B12 to have Orange bowl game swapping Sugar with the ACC to play the G5 Champ New Years Eve.
B12 will get about half of what the other four get of the P4.

B12 brings in six - 8 teams (My guess 3 MWC and 5 AAC)

Not using crossover rivalry games
Big vs 12
SDSU -WVU
CSU - ISU
Boise - KS
Houston - TCU
Baylor - SMU
USF - UCF
Tulsa - Cinci


AAC and MWC ROB raid CUSA to get back to 10+ teams to keep CCG.

CUSA brings up some FCS teams to get back to 10 similar to the Sun Belt. CUSA can afford to lose 4 teams before needing to bring teams up.
04-cheers

That was a long post for you to say the one thing you really wanted to say:
ACC gets to play in the Sugar Bowl vs the SEC instead of the Big 12. Right?
My prediction: Big 12 continues to play the SEC in the Sugar Bowl and PAC plays Big 10 in the Rose Bowl leaving the ACC with the Orange Bowl vs a runner up or 3rd place team from the Big 10 or SEC.
Remember, The ACC BARELY GOT THAT in the last CFP arrangement, so I'd just be happy with that rather than hope to kick the Big 12 out of their "champions Bowl" arrangement with the SEC.
ACC vs the AAC in the Orange Bowl, how about that?


That was the old BCS Tie-IN ACC vs Big East. Basically, I was stating the remaining P4 probably goes to Sugar and Rose. If B12 is P4, yup I would agree the ACC would fall into the Orange catergory. Have to disagree, ACC barely got the Orange, Orange tie-in was there since the CFP began. Now if you would have said at the beginning of the CFP, the ACC would be the likely conference to fall out of the P5 instead of B12, I would agree. It is frankly amazing how the ACC has improved football, I still say the ACC has to keep putting teams in the next two years of the CFP to hold onto the last spot over the B12. In addition, I do think the B12 dysfunction has benefitted the ACC. You attaching feelings with my posts, just looking at the current situations with a truly cynical view. 04-cheers
06-24-2017 07:54 PM
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nzmorange Offline
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Post: #39
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
The AAC will almost certainly end up substantially w/ ESPN because they have the best information. Any rational party would get nervous bidding above ESPN, especially if they're substantially above ESPN.

The payout will almost certainly go up, and it will largely be driven by A) a longer contract (I doubt that the conference will sign another 6 yr contract), B) time (it will be signed 6 years later), and C) I doubt that the conference will be as desperate for attention, so it will be more willing to have its games prop up one of ESPN's "who cares" networks ... for a price.

My guess is that it will be like the SEC, where the ESPN bought the vast majority of the games, and another network got a handful (the rest).
06-24-2017 09:33 PM
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panite Offline
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Post: #40
RE: ESPN exercises 2019 option on BYU contract; Bowl free agent
(06-24-2017 06:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 05:14 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 03:46 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 02:09 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(06-24-2017 01:04 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I'd be fine with that---I just don't think we will make it to the open market. I think that ESPN doesnt want the AAC on the open market. Its better for ESPN to keep ALL of that property. They now need more of it with half of their Big10 inventory gone and the possible loss of some ACC inventory when the ACC Network kicks off.

Better for ESPN to hold on to ALL that AAC inventory because---

1) They'll probably need it.

2) The AAC inventory is better than any other G5 alternative

3) The AAC inventory is much cheaper than any P5 alternative and offers great 'bang for the buck" (especially the top 20 games or so).

4) There are buyers for what ESPN doesnt need--so ESPN has the ability to offset some of the cost of the AAC payout.

5) They can control WHO gets the inventory if they maintain control over it.


Thus, I expect ESPN will make an early extension offer that is high enough that most of the AAC presidents will fear they MIGHT not get as much in the open market. I think ESPN will sweeten the deal by offering the AAC a well funded bowl slot vs a high selection from a P5 conference to serve as the AAC "anchor bowl" for the champ (or runner up). Those two items, plus the tremendous exposure currently enjoyed by the AAC schools, will have the AAC signing on to such an early extension offer and passing on the opportunity for a possible better deal in the open maket. ESPN wins by locking up needed inventory and by not having to get into a bidding battle if the AAC starts chopping up its inventory and selling it piecemeal to the highest bidder.

ESPN does not lose any ACC inventory. The RSN and Raycom games are what move over in 2019.

As for the well funded ESPN bowl, the Texas Bowl is the only one with a decent payout. I doubt SEC or B12 is going to give that up for the AAC.

I could be wrong, I think AAC needs ESPN not the other way around. I just don't see ESPN giving th AAC any more than they have too or feel ESPN needs to help build the brand. Then again, I have stated I thought NBC would be the best landing place for the American if they truly wanted a power conference status. ESPN will always side with the P5 over the AAC.

I know what Aresco says but I have yet see Aresco deliver. Miami was going to get P5 team. Never happened and Bowl had to be sold to espn. Army/Navy part of tv contract, CBS owns it and Navy keeps the money. Basically gave the impression TV contract would be redone after year 3 and entering year 4 with ESPN getting other contracts extending othe contracts to end at the same time. Note, this is nothing against AAC schools but actually looking at Aresco accomplishments to date.

I have a feeling ESPN and others are going to keep status quo and wait for 2024 to see what the landscape will be. My prediction small bumps in payouts for all the G5 in this next round of TV talks, possibly even only a 5 year deal wth 6th option. Overall, no winners or losers, just status quo.

1). Matt Sarzniak seems to think ESPN might lose a little to the ACC network--but either way, I don't think it will be a big factor.

2). For ESPN to give the AAC a high payout anchor bowl---they just need to create a bowl with a payout high enough to attract a high P5 pick. Doesn't necessarily have to be an bowl that currently has a high payout. As I said---it's a sweetener. Kicking a 2 million payout to a 6 million payout is cheaper than adding an extra million a team to the AAC contract---and delivering a P5 opponent is something ESPN can pull off (more importantly, it's something the AAC couldn't do on thier own).

3). I agree. ESPN will try to get the AAC for as little as possible. Low balling might work....if there are really no other bidders and the AAC doesn't really make ESPN money. But---If the AAC makes ESPN a lot of money, then there will be competing bidders and the open market will set the price. A low bid for early renewal guarantees the AAC goes to the open market---which is where the AAC could maximize value by splitting thier content among multiple networks. Basically---the difference in our views is I just don't think the AAC is as unwanted as you do.

AC,

Don't take by analytical apprach as I don't think the AAC is not wanted. Much like the Godfather saying goes, "it is not personal, it is business" I think we can agree I have been an advocate for the AAC next contract to be with NBC, I think they will appreciate the AAC. ESPN has far to much invested in the P5s than they do with the AAC. AAC will always be the red headed stepchild with ESPN. Or Fredo staying with the Godfather reference.

One thing that has snakebit the AAC since day one is timing. I think it basically agreed upon by most college football people that 2024 will probably be the year when the major decisions happen for the next realignment phase. Why I think the TV contracts will not bring in the major increases and the bowl idea not likely to happen. P5s already have their bowl money and I don't think you see that many changes in bowl and tie-ins this next go round.


Basically, the B12 GOR is up. I think one of two things happen

B12 survives intact and adds up to four teams from the AAC and MW. (Probably not good for Houston)

or

B12 loses teams and becomes a new tweener conference basically raiding the AAC and MW. (Probably far better for Houston)

Using my highly cloud crystal ball this is what I could see happen. CFP will still exist to avoid anti-trust but it now becomes the P4.



Texas, OSU, OU and TT bolt to the P12.

Leaving the B12 at 6 teams.
The CFP agrees to allow B12 to have Orange bowl game swapping Sugar with the ACC to play the G5 Champ New Years Eve.
B12 will get about half of what the other four get of the P4.

B12 brings in six - 8 teams (My guess 3 MWC and 5 AAC)

Not using crossover rivalry games
Big vs 12
SDSU -WVU
CSU - ISU
Boise - KS
Houston - TCU
Baylor - SMU
USF - UCF
Tulsa - Cinci


AAC and MWC ROB raid CUSA to get back to 10+ teams to keep CCG.

CUSA brings up some FCS teams to get back to 10 similar to the Sun Belt. CUSA can afford to lose 4 teams before needing to bring teams up.
04-cheers

Yup. If the Big12 survives intact and raids the AAC/MW for 2-4 teams it could leave us in a very diminished conference. That would be very bad news for us. Our only long term hope in that scenario is the Pac12 gives up their Ahab like quest for the Great White Whale (UT) and makes a play for Texas viewers using Houston and one other Texas school (maybe SMU?). All we can really do is to continue to try to make ourselves as attractive an expansion target as possible. 04-cheers

B-12 stays intact. ACC, B-10, SEC, Pac-12 stay status quo.

B-12 goes back to 12 or 14 to keep up with the other P5 conferences.
Potential candidates are the usual: BYU, Cinn, UConn, USF, UCF, and Air Force. BYU and Air Force FB only works for 12. BYU and Cinn all sports works for 12 too and probably preferred. If the B-12 for goes on BYU and decides to get into Florida knowing they can't get the ACC Florida teams they take UCF and USF along with Cinn and UConn to get to 14. WV is now off the island. All this is hypothetical but if the B-12 stays together Texas and Oklahoma will dictate who gets in and the rest of the members will rubber stamp their choices with a sigh of relief knowing they won't be on the outside looking in as a G6 conference. 05-mafia 05-stirthepot 04-rock 07-coffee3 03-shhhh 04-cheers
06-24-2017 09:38 PM
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