Some interesting numbers here:

For 2017 Nielsen add 2 million TV households for a total of 118,400,000 estimated number of TV households.

The estimated number of pay TV households stands at around 98,700,000 households. (83% and declining)

ESPN is currently in 87,895,000 pay TV households. (89% of pay TV households, 74% of total households and declining)

While other sports networks are also declining, ESPN is the focus as they charge the largest amount per subscriber of all the channels.

https://sportstvratings.com/how-many-mor...ates/7433/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/2512...in-the-us/

http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/ne...eason.html


Side note: https://www.fastcompany.com/40450179/cor...c-declines
Last year (2016) saw 1.75 million households cut the cord. For 2017 the first 2 quarters have match last years total (1.75 million) already with still half a year to go.

meh. dvd services are now free for ott channels once you buy a box one time fee. there will soon be significantly less money available for content providors to hand out in contracts


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Guys, the problem isn't just that people are leaving cable, its that the cable companies are having to cut their prices to keep customers. Comcast has been dropping prices in my area to try to retain customers.

Don't just look at subscribers, but look at REVENUE. It has fallen significantly, and it will continue to fall.

This is why people are paying $60 to $70 for internet service that used to cost $30 to $40.

Cablecos trying to make up the difference

The next time I call Comcast will be to cancel. I've called them before and they claim they will give me a lower rate for 12 months but after a month or two the rates go up. The last 3 times I've called. It's obvious that nothing they tell me can be trusted.When I get around to it, they're gone.... and I can't imagine that a lot of other people aren't about to do the same thing, in addition to the people that have already done it.

They've lied to me for the last time.

(08-08-2017 06:43 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(08-08-2017 05:57 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Yep, that hard, steady decline from 0.5% to 1% to 1.5% to ...

Just 90 more years and your dream will come true!

Realize that is 1% per qtr in decline of households. It'll be less than 90 years. But also, there will be an inflection point where the there will be more numerous declines.
5 years ago it was a trickle, now it is a stream, creek or crook depending what part of the country and getting bigger.

The real issue for them is the never connected. Younger people are automatically going for the streaming alternatives and never developing a habit for cable. Many of those customers are permanently lost and they will be a majority of the potential customer base in 20 years.

(08-08-2017 08:44 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Guys, the problem isn't just that people are leaving cable, its that the cable companies are having to cut their prices to keep customers. Comcast has been dropping prices in my area to try to retain customers.

Don't just look at subscribers, but look at REVENUE. It has fallen significantly, and it will continue to fall.

That is a good thing for consumers, always.

(08-08-2017 06:43 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  But also, there will be an inflection point where the there will be more numerous declines.
5 years ago it was a trickle, now it is a stream, creek or crook depending what part of the country and getting bigger.

Thing is, we're already past the inflection point ... and the inflection point is turned UP, not down.

Cable/sat will be/already are combating the losses with new, cheaper products to retain subscribers while maintaining margins.

(08-08-2017 07:00 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Side note: https://www.fastcompany.com/40450179/cor...c-declines
Last year (2016) saw 1.75 million households cut the cord. For 2017 the first 2 quarters have match last years total (1.75 million) already with still half a year to go.

Keep in mind, these numbers are doctored, like all reported numbers are, to present an agenda. The agenda being "whatever sounds the worst/best/etc in order to get you to click on our click-bait headline".

These numbers are purely people who are canceling Comcast cable, Charter cable, DirecTV satellite, DISH, satellite, and other similar services, with NO regard to the large percentage of these folks who are in turn paying for TV service in another way (be it Sling, VUE, Netflix, HBO Now, etc.).

(08-09-2017 07:11 AM)bullet Wrote:  The real issue for them is the never connected. Younger people are automatically going for the streaming alternatives and never developing a habit for cable. Many of those customers are permanently lost and they will be a majority of the potential customer base in 20 years.

You adapt, or you die. That has always been true in business, for even the largest companies. No product platform lives forever ... people are always the most interested in what's new.

Young people may not have ever had a cable TV subscription with a cable box in their apartments .... and may not even own a TV! They're very dedicated to their secondary screens, laptops and phones. So .... you adapt, and offer them subscription services that cater to those secondary screens. DirecTV Now, being a great example.

Pay TV isn't going anywhere. It may just not look like what you had when you were growing up ...

Maybe it will be good for subscribers and maybe it won't.

I tend to think a lot of the content that has a dedicated following will be expensive.

If I am ESPN and can get 20 million people to pay $50 a month I'll take that all day, every day over 67 million paying $15 a month.

Revenue is basically identical but I cut my server and bandwidth costs dramatically.

Outside of the ESPN3 and online products, ESPN doesn't have to worry about their distribution costs. When they are sending the signal to a satellite it doesn't matter if 3 or 300 million are pulling in the signal.

That's why Sinclair is trying to get the FCC to change the digital rules to give stations even more bandwidth and offer subscription services. Once they get the box in the consumer's hands their distribution costs are the same no matter how many watch.

Not sure if you were talking about this, arkst ... but I definitely think OTA will stick around for a long time. It serves an important niche, and if all else fails (internet backbone sub-station for a metro explodes or something catastrophic like that) it's a sure-fire backup plan to get information out.

(08-08-2017 09:58 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  The next time I call Comcast will be to cancel. I've called them before and they claim they will give me a lower rate for 12 months but after a month or two the rates go up. The last 3 times I've called. It's obvious that nothing they tell me can be trusted.When I get around to it, they're gone.... and I can't imagine that a lot of other people aren't about to do the same thing, in addition to the people that have already done it.

They've lied to me for the last time.

Walk into a service center in person to drop off your cable box then they'll trot out some deals.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G530AZ using CSNbbs mobile app

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-walt-...SKBN1AP1K2

Disney's stock dips as streaming push unnerves some investors

Quote:Walt Disney Co's (DIS.N) shares fell 5 percent on Wednesday to their lowest in eight months as investors doubted whether the world's biggest entertainment company can succeed with its plan to launch its own streaming services rather than rely on Netflix Inc (NFLX.O) to reach online viewers.

Disney announced its plans on Tuesday alongside quarterly results showing further subscription losses as it struggles to keep hold of viewers defecting to online streaming services offered by Netflix, Time Warner Inc's (TWX.N) HBO and others.

Under its plan, Disney will stop providing new movies to Netflix starting in 2019, a deal analysts at RBC Capital Markets estimate earns Disney more than $100 million a year. Some on Wall Street have doubts that Disney can easily replicate that revenue stream.

"The Disney product is taking a very successful and settled part of the business model (pay TV economics for films) and putting it at risk in the hopes of building an asset with more long-term value," Cowen and Co analysts wrote in a research note.

(08-09-2017 11:44 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(08-08-2017 09:58 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  The next time I call Comcast will be to cancel. I've called them before and they claim they will give me a lower rate for 12 months but after a month or two the rates go up. The last 3 times I've called. It's obvious that nothing they tell me can be trusted.When I get around to it, they're gone.... and I can't imagine that a lot of other people aren't about to do the same thing, in addition to the people that have already done it.

They've lied to me for the last time.

Walk into a service center in person to drop off your cable box then they'll trot out some deals.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G530AZ using CSNbbs mobile app

I reccomend this as well. Never, ever try to do anything over the phone with Comcast. Customer service hell at its worse.

(08-09-2017 11:58 AM)goofus Wrote:  I reccomend this as well. Never, ever try to do anything over the phone with Comcast. Customer service hell at its worse.

Have called into Comcast multiple times over the last 3+ years, each time a promo price ends. Have always been treated very well, and given a new promo for usually a considerably similar, if not exactly the same, bundle of service.

Note: you need to get to the "loyalty dept" when you call in.

YMMV

(08-08-2017 09:58 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  The next time I call Comcast will be to cancel. I've called them before and they claim they will give me a lower rate for 12 months but after a month or two the rates go up. The last 3 times I've called. It's obvious that nothing they tell me can be trusted.When I get around to it, they're gone.... and I can't imagine that a lot of other people aren't about to do the same thing, in addition to the people that have already done it.

They've lied to me for the last time.

I always ask for the record locater for the tape of the conversation before agreeing to sign up for anything. Then, not if, but when, Comcast tries to jerk me around, I call them up and demand that they produce the tape. Here's a hint, they either don't record their conversations or its really expensive for them to retrieve them. As a result, every time I demand the tape, with the record locater reference, I get what I want.

(08-09-2017 08:46 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(08-08-2017 06:43 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  But also, there will be an inflection point where the there will be more numerous declines.
5 years ago it was a trickle, now it is a stream, creek or crook depending what part of the country and getting bigger.

Thing is, we're already past the inflection point ... and the inflection point is turned UP, not down.

Cable/sat will be/already are combating the losses with new, cheaper products to retain subscribers while maintaining margins.

(08-08-2017 07:00 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Side note: https://www.fastcompany.com/40450179/cor...c-declines
Last year (2016) saw 1.75 million households cut the cord. For 2017 the first 2 quarters have match last years total (1.75 million) already with still half a year to go.

Keep in mind, these numbers are doctored, like all reported numbers are, to present an agenda. The agenda being "whatever sounds the worst/best/etc in order to get you to click on our click-bait headline".

These numbers are purely people who are canceling Comcast cable, Charter cable, DirecTV satellite, DISH, satellite, and other similar services, with NO regard to the large percentage of these folks who are in turn paying for TV service in another way (be it Sling, VUE, Netflix, HBO Now, etc.).

I don't think we are the inflection point yet. Also, the numbers are not doctored for click bait. The source is an independent research company (MoffettNathanson) that put the numbers together from the company reports of the cable/sat and internet companies.
Yes the chart is showing the number of Cable/Sat/Internet TV losses only.

By the way, Dish does include Sling numbers. Their net loss for the Q2 was 196,000 customers.
http://variety.com/2017/biz/news/dish-q2...202514660/
The chart of the previous post from Moffett Nathanson estimated that Dish lost 285,000 satellite customers.
So roughly, 89,000 Sling customers were added to give Dish a net loss of 196,000.
Some new customers for Sling came from other cable/sate companies or from other OTT companies. .
But still, the fact is, there are not many people canceling their cable/sat packages and going to OTT TV service.

http://variety.com/2017/biz/news/att-q2-...202506255/

Here is ATT/Direct TV numbers. Total losses for both is 351,000.
However, they did get 152,000 DirectTV Now customers, but the net loss for the Q2 2017 was 199,000.

Here is an interesting article from Bloomberg.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...ium=social

"So far, skinny bundle are making up for 60 percent of the people who drop pay-TV service, according to Moffett. Over the next decade, 31 million homes will cancel or cut back their traditional TV service, while just 17 million will go for live online options, say Barclays."

(08-09-2017 09:08 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Not sure if you were talking about this, arkst ... but I definitely think OTA will stick around for a long time. It serves an important niche, and if all else fails (internet backbone sub-station for a metro explodes or something catastrophic like that) it's a sure-fire backup plan to get information out.

Yeah Sinclair (former owner of ASN) is trying to convince the FCC to give stations more bandwidth so they can offer subscription video and digital service delivery in addition to traditional OTA TV.

(08-09-2017 01:37 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  But still, the fact is, there are not many people canceling their cable/sat packages and going to OTT TV service.

For now. You're rushing to the conclusion, because it's the conclusion you want to be true.

People don't understand it yet. It's too new, still.

(08-09-2017 01:37 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  "So far, skinny bundle are making up for 60 percent of the people who drop pay-TV service, according to Moffett. Over the next decade, 31 million homes will cancel or cut back their traditional TV service, while just 17 million will go for live online options, say Barclays."

But this is based on the faulty numbers, that are due to people not having enough time to adapt, learn, and understand the other options out there.


Also reject that Netflix and HBO don't count as pay TV. That's agenda-driven BS.

(08-09-2017 08:46 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(08-08-2017 06:43 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  But also, there will be an inflection point where the there will be more numerous declines.
5 years ago it was a trickle, now it is a stream, creek or crook depending what part of the country and getting bigger.

Thing is, we're already past the inflection point ... and the inflection point is turned UP, not down.

Cable/sat will be/already are combating the losses with new, cheaper products to retain subscribers while maintaining margins.

(08-08-2017 07:00 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Side note: https://www.fastcompany.com/40450179/cor...c-declines
Last year (2016) saw 1.75 million households cut the cord. For 2017 the first 2 quarters have match last years total (1.75 million) already with still half a year to go.

Keep in mind, these numbers are doctored, like all reported numbers are, to present an agenda. The agenda being "whatever sounds the worst/best/etc in order to get you to click on our click-bait headline".

These numbers are purely people who are canceling Comcast cable, Charter cable, DirecTV satellite, DISH, satellite, and other similar services, with NO regard to the large percentage of these folks who are in turn paying for TV service in another way (be it Sling, VUE, Netflix, HBO Now, etc.).

(08-09-2017 07:11 AM)bullet Wrote:  The real issue for them is the never connected. Younger people are automatically going for the streaming alternatives and never developing a habit for cable. Many of those customers are permanently lost and they will be a majority of the potential customer base in 20 years.

You adapt, or you die. That has always been true in business, for even the largest companies. No product platform lives forever ... people are always the most interested in what's new.

Young people may not have ever had a cable TV subscription with a cable box in their apartments .... and may not even own a TV! They're very dedicated to their secondary screens, laptops and phones. So .... you adapt, and offer them subscription services that cater to those secondary screens. DirecTV Now, being a great example.

Pay TV isn't going anywhere. It may just not look like what you had when you were growing up ...

Lol, when I grew up we only had an antenna and three channels.....but, I agree with you.

(08-09-2017 03:15 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(08-09-2017 08:46 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(08-08-2017 06:43 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  But also, there will be an inflection point where the there will be more numerous declines.
5 years ago it was a trickle, now it is a stream, creek or crook depending what part of the country and getting bigger.

Thing is, we're already past the inflection point ... and the inflection point is turned UP, not down.

Cable/sat will be/already are combating the losses with new, cheaper products to retain subscribers while maintaining margins.

(08-08-2017 07:00 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Side note: https://www.fastcompany.com/40450179/cor...c-declines
Last year (2016) saw 1.75 million households cut the cord. For 2017 the first 2 quarters have match last years total (1.75 million) already with still half a year to go.

Keep in mind, these numbers are doctored, like all reported numbers are, to present an agenda. The agenda being "whatever sounds the worst/best/etc in order to get you to click on our click-bait headline".

These numbers are purely people who are canceling Comcast cable, Charter cable, DirecTV satellite, DISH, satellite, and other similar services, with NO regard to the large percentage of these folks who are in turn paying for TV service in another way (be it Sling, VUE, Netflix, HBO Now, etc.).

(08-09-2017 07:11 AM)bullet Wrote:  The real issue for them is the never connected. Younger people are automatically going for the streaming alternatives and never developing a habit for cable. Many of those customers are permanently lost and they will be a majority of the potential customer base in 20 years.

You adapt, or you die. That has always been true in business, for even the largest companies. No product platform lives forever ... people are always the most interested in what's new.

Young people may not have ever had a cable TV subscription with a cable box in their apartments .... and may not even own a TV! They're very dedicated to their secondary screens, laptops and phones. So .... you adapt, and offer them subscription services that cater to those secondary screens. DirecTV Now, being a great example.

Pay TV isn't going anywhere. It may just not look like what you had when you were growing up ...

Lol, when I grew up we only had an antenna and three channels.....but, I agree with you.

When we got our first TV, we has CBS and NBC, and they were not even on from midknight to 6am. Big huge console, and 12 inch black n white screen.