(06-23-2017 12:52 PM)BePcr07 Wrote: (06-23-2017 12:36 PM)JRsec Wrote: (06-23-2017 07:47 AM)XLance Wrote: https://www.texastribune.org/2017/06/22/...el-te/amp/
California state agencies, universities and commissions won't be allowed to send their employees to Texas after the California attorney general declared a Texas law discriminatory....................................
The California law allows for exceptions for contracts that are already in place, and it's unclear whether the state's teams would be banned from playing in the Final Four. But the Los Angeles Times reported in February that UCLA has stopped scheduling games against teams in banned states.
In think it definitely clears the path for ESPN. And it also prepares the way for 18 member conferences in the East.
Agreed. The PAC will be stuck with Mountain West expansion targets (if any at all.) Think to 16 with Hawaii, UNLV, New Mexico, and Colorado St - those schools are in states that voted Democrat in the last presidential election.
Not sure the ACC goes to 18 but the SEC and B1G likely would.
ACC + Notre Dame, Cincinnati
SEC + Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma St, West Virginia
B1G + Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Connecticut
Left out: Iowa St, Kansas St, Baylor
There is no way in hell the B1G is going to land either Oklahoma or Texas. Texas isn't heading there period, at least not until 2031 which is well past the GOR. The SEC will offer both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and in the end that will be what it takes to overcome the Big 10 option.
Why am I so sure? Because ESPN will not give up leverage in Texas. ESPN has the Aggies through the SEC. ESPN has Houston and S.M.U. through a lesser contract. Landing Texahoma gives ESPN a total lock on product in the Texas/Oklahoma region which is region that watches college sports almost as much as the SEC. It is why the LHN exists in the first place.
So ESPN will move whatever they have to in order to land Texas and Oklahoma and if that means OSU and TTU so be it. By doing so they take full control of the current Texas and Oklahoma Big 12 properties that they currently split 50/50 for T1 & T2 with FOX. The rest won't matter to ESPN.
If people will stop and think about ESPN's holdings you will see that the own all of the "P" product in the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New York, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. Sure it's split between the SEC and ACC, but in the larger states they own the top G5 product as well: UCF, USF, Temple, Tulane, Memphis, and ECU. They have Cincinnati already by virtue of the AAC contract. And, they currently hold the contracts for Houston and S.M.U.. If Baylor or T.C.U. got relegated they would likely be in the AAC where ESPN would still hold their contracts.
So landing Texas and Tech, and taking OU and OSU to make sure of it is a very cheap way to control all of the advertising rates for major college sports in Texas and Oklahoma.
Given this has been ESPN's master strategy I'd bet strongly that this will be precisely what they are after. If they round that out with Kansas and West Virginia then so be it. If not it doesn't affect their trajectory.
Let's say that Texas opts for an independent deal with the ACC. The SEC could easily expand to 18 with Tech, OU, OSU, and KU. The ACC could add W.V.U. and Cincinnati.
Baylor, Kansas State, T.C.U. and Iowa State join the AAC and do so with scheduling agreements with their rivals and key Big 12 schools and some key SEC and ACC schools in their pockets, pockets which will be full of over 300 million in exit fees if they choose not to push the GOR. And if they push the GOR what do they ultimately get? No scheduling agreements at all, no exit fees, and if they have to wait until 2024-5 no GOR damages either.
So those 4 will either choose to cooperate and pocket about 75 million each, or they will get nothing. What do you suppose they will do?
So ESPN pays 6 of them about 15 million more than they are making now, and after 2025 (as they will honor the value of the Big 12 contracts for the 4 headed to the AAC until the end of the present contract) where they will eventually pay around 15 million less (which is still a nice bump up for the rest of the AAC.) What's even better is that with this lineup of product (SEC/ACC/AAC) ESPN no longer needs to pay the for Big 10 product.
They will be in Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Chicago, outright with their existing product. They will lack Detroit, Madison, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Lincoln and Des Moine. In other words they will have the major centers of the Big 10 without having to buy Big 10 product to get them. That more than pays for the move.
