I would say 2 in the Big 12 but I think it's plausible that the ACC and B1G could split in half if they get too big, and each side could expand from there. Ditto if the SEC goes beyond 14.

I personally think the number will always hover around 65 but maybe it grows to 70-75 if a conference or two splits up and adds members.

I think PAC12 could grow by two an B12 by four. So six would be my magic number if we stay with the P5. It goes to P4 then I think it stays it goes down to 64. The question is which P5 gets left behind and which G5 could be promoted.

My guess is we're pretty much maxed out.

(06-12-2017 08:35 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  I would say 2 in the Big 12 but I think it's plausible that the ACC and B1G could split in half if they get too big, and each side could expand from there. Ditto if the SEC goes beyond 14.

I personally think the number will always hover around 65 but maybe it grows to 70-75 if a conference or two splits up and adds members.

Wuuut?

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Two most likely, four at the most. Depends on the Big XII.

Totally depends. If OU and UT go somewhere together, that's probably it, aside from another in the ACC if/when ND ever joins full. I don't see any realistic options for the Pac12 unless it involves UT and OU. I would say max 5 if, say OU goes to the B1G with KU. That leaves UT +1 to another conference when LHN expires... with again the ACC ND partner if that ever happened.

If Big12 stays together then only 3 spots: 2 maybe for the Big 12 plus ND's partner.

Declining carriage fees creates the argument that less mouths to feed is better than going to 16+, especially given the fact that 16 decreases cross-divison play that much more. There just aren't any candidates aside from UT/OU/KU that carry their own weight enough to justify splitting the pie out more.

(06-12-2017 08:35 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  I would say 2 in the Big 12 but I think it's plausible that the ACC and B1G could split in half if they get too big, and each side could expand from there. Ditto if the SEC goes beyond 14.

I personally think the number will always hover around 65 but maybe it grows to 70-75 if a conference or two splits up and adds members.

Very true, just passing the time until football season.

B1G + 2
SEC + 2
ACC + 1-1.5
PAC + 2-4
Big 12 + 2- 4

Overall 68-72 teams. I look at there being plenty of money from CFP to make it like football version of March Madness. I think the whole cable thing is overblown. Bottom line is people want the playoff and that's the real golden goose.

Anywhere from 0 to 15 teams...so many variables and scenarios. I could see anywhere from 4 to 6 Power Conferences.

Nobody expands unless it is at least a net neutral revenue for each preexisting team. The last resort type of expansion will be the leftovers from a conference implosion hooking up with the best of the G5 to keep in the Power Club.

The Big12 is the big part of the puzzle. Texas and Notre Dame are the biggest change agents.

(06-12-2017 09:20 PM)Strut Wrote:  B1G + 2
SEC + 2
ACC + 1-1.5
PAC + 2-4
Big 12 + 2- 4

Overall 68-72 teams. I look at there being plenty of money from CFP to make it like football version of March Madness. I think the whole cable thing is overblown. Bottom line is people want the playoff and that's the real golden goose.

There's spots, and there's who would fill those spots. If OU or UT aren't part of a "block of 4", the PAC isn't going to expand to the central time zone. And that means the PAC probably doesn't expand at all because there's no worthy additions in the near future.

Basically you have UT, OU, KU as the only real jewels out there to fill those 10-18 slots. No one is going to expand because someone else did, or because it gets us to the nice 64 number. An SEC contract fed to less mouths is better than adding Texas Tech and Baylor because the B1G took OU and KU. It's getting to the point where almost no one can say yes to "are you worth $40M to our league", because that's where the payouts are for SEC and B1G.

Sec and BIG10 want a p 4, if big12 breaks up then it will be p4 and about six fewer teams

(06-12-2017 08:35 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  I would say 2 in the Big 12 but I think it's plausible that the ACC and B1G could split in half if they get too big, and each side could expand from there. Ditto if the SEC goes beyond 14.

I personally think the number will always hover around 65 but maybe it grows to 70-75 if a conference or two splits up and adds members.

Fox and ESPN announced there were zero when the Big 12 planned to expand.

I think it comes down to time slots. There are only so many on Saturday on Fox, FS1, ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC. They are pretty much full now.

How about 8 power conferences of 16?

128 teams.

(06-12-2017 11:25 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  How about 8 power conferences of 16?

128 teams.

as soon as you cut that $1.89 billion dollar check every year you can call conferences whatever you want

until then it seems clear that ESPN, Fox, CBS, NBC and Raycom are really not looking to pay more and cable companies are not looking to add conference owned networks

Short term there are no spots available, long term if we go to P4 is none, more likely to leave out a couple. If P5 stays, 0 to 6.

Could see Big Ten, PAC, SEC, and ACC at 16 full members/football teams each, plus the Big 12 still being considered a P conf ... if things roll the right way.

The Big XII explodes sending it's members to the P4.

Pac-12 +4
B1G +2
SEC +2
ACC +1 or 2

Baylor and ISU are the one who are in the most danger of being left out and UConn, Houston & Cincy are the most likely to get a call up from the G5.

I think the Big 12 passing on expansion shows there are zero spots left at least for now. Should some of these proposed movements happen like OU and Texas leaving the Big 12 we could see a few teams get promoted but my belief is that P5 realignment is done for at least a decade.

To be honest, I don't think there's any spots left.

If we work off the assumption that many are making that the Big XII isn't long for this world, you'll see OU, TX, KU, WVU, and maybe OSU find homes. The rest will probably be left out in the cold.

Of the teams currently not in a P5, there's UConn, BYU, and Houston, and I don't see anyone lining up at their doorsteps wanting to invite them.

If things go the collapse of the Big XII route, there's to many teams if anything.