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Rice players who we predict will get drafted
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texd Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-09-2017 02:50 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I think I had a similar experience with my freshman academic advisor. But my grade problems were more my fault than his. Maybe I should have listened to my high school guidance counselor, who said I couldn't make it at Rice.

I would agree with more my fault than his. But I still wonder why anyone would think that was sufficient guidance.

There needs to be someone that students trust (maybe from their life before Rice) who sits them down and says "You used to be smart. But now you're at Rice."
06-09-2017 03:09 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-09-2017 03:09 PM)texd Wrote:  
(06-09-2017 02:50 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I think I had a similar experience with my freshman academic advisor. But my grade problems were more my fault than his. Maybe I should have listened to my high school guidance counselor, who said I couldn't make it at Rice.

I would agree with more my fault than his. But I still wonder why anyone would think that was sufficient guidance.

There needs to be someone that students trust (maybe from their life before Rice) who sits them down and says "You used to be smart. But now you're at Rice."

Exactly. The Thresher did a piece on the incoming class, and my scores were exactly 50th percentile. I was average.

I don't know what the system was when you were a freshman. My advisor was a sophomore, who helped me enroll for the first semester. Never had another advisor, unless you count my College Master, who advised me to go home and wait for my draft notice.

I guess the reason I have a Rice degree on my wall is just stubbornness.
06-09-2017 03:29 PM
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texd Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-09-2017 03:29 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Exactly. The Thresher did a piece on the incoming class, and my scores were exactly 50th percentile. I was average.

I don't know what the system was when you were a freshman. My advisor was a sophomore, who helped me enroll for the first semester. Never had another advisor, unless you count my College Master, who advised me to go home and wait for my draft notice.

I guess the reason I have a Rice degree on my wall is just stubbornness.

My advisor was a Brown associate who was also an S/E prof. He said that, signed my triplicate form, and I was off to the registrar to stand in line. In fairness to him, my schedule probably would have been easy for him as a freshman.
06-09-2017 03:33 PM
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mrbig Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-09-2017 03:03 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Bigs, it's not his offense, but his defense that will cause a slip in the draft. I've heard from several scouts that he doesn't have the range of a MLB middle infielder, and I'm not sure he provides the pop for LF or 1B.

Not many people do! I have no idea how his defense rates, especially his range. If he is athletic enough to play LF, RF, 3B, or 1B, then it will really just depend on his bat. If everything goes right for him, maybe he could evolve into someone like Kyle Seager, who was drafted in the 3rd round out of UNC?

I looked at Baseball America. He missed their Top 500 and was listed #52 in the state of Texas (the top 44 in Texas all made the Top 500). Extrapolating, that likely puts Gray in the top 500-600 draft prospects. That is comfortably outside the top 10 rounds, so you are probably right. Perhaps I was reading too much into his late-season surge. I guess my big surprise is that Myers is regarded as being so much higher than Gray.
06-09-2017 03:52 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-09-2017 03:52 PM)mrbig Wrote:  
(06-09-2017 03:03 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Bigs, it's not his offense, but his defense that will cause a slip in the draft. I've heard from several scouts that he doesn't have the range of a MLB middle infielder, and I'm not sure he provides the pop for LF or 1B.

Not many people do! I have no idea how his defense rates, especially his range. If he is athletic enough to play LF, RF, 3B, or 1B, then it will really just depend on his bat. If everything goes right for him, maybe he could evolve into someone like Kyle Seager, who was drafted in the 3rd round out of UNC?

I looked at Baseball America. He missed their Top 500 and was listed #52 in the state of Texas (the top 44 in Texas all made the Top 500). Extrapolating, that likely puts Gray in the top 500-600 draft prospects. That is comfortably outside the top 10 rounds, so you are probably right. Perhaps I was reading too much into his late-season surge. I guess my big surprise is that Myers is regarded as being so much higher than Gray.

Dane is a gold glove 3B or 1B. This year's stats aside, I think Tristan is a better hitter with higher upside, but Dane did show marked improvement this year at the plate...and is a far better baserunner. He's still a sucker for anything but a fastball and, IMO, that's going to keep him out of the Top 7 - 8 rounds, and may cause him to slip to the 10th round.
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2017 04:35 PM by waltgreenberg.)
06-09-2017 04:34 PM
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RiceFootball2K5 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-09-2017 04:34 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(06-09-2017 03:52 PM)mrbig Wrote:  
(06-09-2017 03:03 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Bigs, it's not his offense, but his defense that will cause a slip in the draft. I've heard from several scouts that he doesn't have the range of a MLB middle infielder, and I'm not sure he provides the pop for LF or 1B.

Not many people do! I have no idea how his defense rates, especially his range. If he is athletic enough to play LF, RF, 3B, or 1B, then it will really just depend on his bat. If everything goes right for him, maybe he could evolve into someone like Kyle Seager, who was drafted in the 3rd round out of UNC?

I looked at Baseball America. He missed their Top 500 and was listed #52 in the state of Texas (the top 44 in Texas all made the Top 500). Extrapolating, that likely puts Gray in the top 500-600 draft prospects. That is comfortably outside the top 10 rounds, so you are probably right. Perhaps I was reading too much into his late-season surge. I guess my big surprise is that Myers is regarded as being so much higher than Gray.

Dane is a gold glove 3B or 1B. This year's stats aside, I think Tristan is a better hitter with higher upside, but Dane did show marked improvement this year at the plate...and is a far better baserunner. He's still a sucker for anything but a fastball and, IMO, that's going to keep him out of the Top 7 - 8 rounds, and may cause him to slip to the 10th round.

The way the draft works now with the team bonus pools, a lot of teams use their picks in rounds 6-10 on seniors or other guys that they know will sign under slot. That way they can use the money they save on higher picks they will need to go over slot with (since the pools are cumulative for rounds 1-10). For example, a player drafted in the 8th round might get offered $50k to sign in order to save money for higher picks, take it or leave it. A Round 11 guy can negotiate all the way up to $100k, and occasionally over.

Round 10 and beyond, the pool is no longer applicable unless a bonus goes over $100k. So, often times it's actually better to get drafted in rounds 11-15 than rounds 6-10.

So just because Myers and/or Gray and/or whoever else make it through Round 10 does not mean they are coming back. They can still get nice bonuses in later rounds.
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2017 04:56 PM by RiceFootball2K5.)
06-09-2017 04:54 PM
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Ranger Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
When will we know who has signed? Isn't the deadline in early August?
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2017 07:22 PM by Ranger.)
06-09-2017 07:22 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-09-2017 07:22 PM)Ranger Wrote:  When will we know who has signed? Isn't the deadline in early August?

I thought it was moved up to mid-July.
06-09-2017 07:24 PM
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WRCisforgotten79 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-09-2017 07:24 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(06-09-2017 07:22 PM)Ranger Wrote:  When will we know who has signed? Isn't the deadline in early August?

I thought it was moved up to mid-July.

Friday, July 14 this year.
06-09-2017 07:50 PM
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MemOwl Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
Hard to believe the bonus money would be a major force in shaping the decision if that bonus is somewhere in low 6 figures.

The choice really becomes do you want to jump into minor league baseball or stay in school?

One of the things that bothers me a bit is that we have players who spend 4 years in the program but don't earn their degrees until later. If one isn't going to get a degree in four years, then I really don't see any reason to come back for a 4th year of college baseball. you might as well get paid to play if you are going to play.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I think the best case for urging a player to come back for senior year would be

1. Your pro career is likely to be short and peak out at low level minors
2. If you have your degree in hand, you are well equipped to move rapidly to next chapter of your life

A case study for this might be Jeremy Rathjen. A fine student who likely would have been admitted to Rice straight up, Jeremy was a poor AA player at the age of 25. He is now a Wharton MBA student and a summer intern at Goldman Sachs at the age of 27 and has great opportunities ahead of him.

If Jeremy had left Rice without a diploma, he would not be where he is today.
06-10-2017 07:47 AM
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Post: #31
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-10-2017 07:47 AM)MemOwl Wrote:  Hard to believe the bonus money would be a major force in shaping the decision if that bonus is somewhere in low 6 figures.

The choice really becomes do you want to jump into minor league baseball or stay in school?

One of the things that bothers me a bit is that we have players who spend 4 years in the program but don't earn their degrees until later. If one isn't going to get a degree in four years, then I really don't see any reason to come back for a 4th year of college baseball. you might as well get paid to play if you are going to play.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I think the best case for urging a player to come back for senior year would be

1. Your pro career is likely to be short and peak out at low level minors
2. If you have your degree in hand, you are well equipped to move rapidly to next chapter of your life

A case study for this might be Jeremy Rathjen. A fine student who likely would have been admitted to Rice straight up, Jeremy was a poor AA player at the age of 25. He is now a Wharton MBA student and a summer intern at Goldman Sachs at the age of 27 and has great opportunities ahead of him.

If Jeremy had left Rice without a diploma, he would not be where he is today.

One never knows. If my memory serves me well, Bobby Bramhall was drafted in the 18th round about ten years ago and was offered 50k. A solid reliever, I thought he would turn it down and possibly be a starting pitcher the next year. But he took the deal.

Given the excellent points you made about the extremely low odds of making the majors and the unattractive lifestyle, at least at the lower rungs of the minors, I have never been able to understand leaving early unless offered a lot of money.
06-10-2017 10:38 AM
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RiceBull Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
Maybe its more than just about the money. Baseball is fun. Ego. School is hard. Desk jobs are boring.
06-10-2017 11:45 AM
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texd Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-10-2017 07:47 AM)MemOwl Wrote:  Hard to believe the bonus money would be a major force in shaping the decision if that bonus is somewhere in low 6 figures.

The choice really becomes do you want to jump into minor league baseball or stay in school?

One of the things that bothers me a bit is that we have players who spend 4 years in the program but don't earn their degrees until later. If one isn't going to get a degree in four years, then I really don't see any reason to come back for a 4th year of college baseball. you might as well get paid to play if you are going to play.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I think the best case for urging a player to come back for senior year would be

1. Your pro career is likely to be short and peak out at low level minors
2. If you have your degree in hand, you are well equipped to move rapidly to next chapter of your life

A case study for this might be Jeremy Rathjen. A fine student who likely would have been admitted to Rice straight up, Jeremy was a poor AA player at the age of 25. He is now a Wharton MBA student and a summer intern at Goldman Sachs at the age of 27 and has great opportunities ahead of him.

If Jeremy had left Rice without a diploma, he would not be where he is today.

If he'd graduated from Rice with a 2.19, he probably wouldn't be there either.

(No, I'm not saying that's what any baseball player's GPA is. I just happen to know people who did graduate that low.)

My point was that every kid should take their Junior Year draft pick, it was that the decision to stay at a good school and finish your degree there or move on is situational, and what's right for some folks isn't right for others.

e: And re-reading your post I guess you're kind of saying that too, at least with respect to players who won't graduate after their senior year. And I can tell you that if your performance at Rice earned you academic probation (especially twice), it can be very hard to graduate in 4 years.
(This post was last modified: 06-10-2017 12:32 PM by texd.)
06-10-2017 12:29 PM
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westsidewolf1989 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
Speaking of the draft, Berkman checks in as the best player ever taken at the No. 16 slot, per ESPN.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/19553...-spot-1-30
(This post was last modified: 06-10-2017 04:32 PM by westsidewolf1989.)
06-10-2017 04:32 PM
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texd Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
That's an interesting exercise. And since it's purely WAR-based, you can see the slots where it would be "easiest" to make the list from in the future, specifically 21, 24, and 28 (all 2.03 and below).

The most difficult spots from which to get on the list are 6 (Barry Bonds at 7.38) and 25 (Mike Trout at 7.4).
06-10-2017 09:08 PM
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ETx Owl Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
I hate the draft, would have won back to back in 04 had they put it off two weeks.
06-11-2017 08:26 AM
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Rick Gerlach Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-11-2017 08:26 AM)ETx Owl Wrote:  I hate the draft, would have won back to back in 04 had they put it off two weeks.

Don't know

We lost Pendleton and Kohlkurst to injuries before and during the regional
06-11-2017 11:03 AM
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Ranger Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
Agreed. I think we could have survived with only one, but two injuries was too much.
06-11-2017 01:37 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-11-2017 01:37 PM)Ranger Wrote:  Agreed. I think we could have survived with only one, but two injuries was too much.

That was a weak hitting team all season, and with Pendleton and Kohlkurst out, we were left with little more than Davis and Jaenisch in the lineup. Having said that, thanks to Ueckert's unexpected gem, we still were in a position to advance out of the losers bracket....and with our Big 4 and Degerman out of the pen, we would have been the favorites had we made it to the Supers.
06-11-2017 04:36 PM
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Ranger Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-11-2017 04:36 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(06-11-2017 01:37 PM)Ranger Wrote:  Agreed. I think we could have survived with only one, but two injuries was too much.

That was a weak hitting team all season, and with Pendleton and Kohlkurst out, we were left with little more than Davis and Jaenisch in the lineup. Having said that, thanks to Ueckert's unexpected gem, we still were in a position to advance out of the losers bracket....and with our Big 4 and Degerman out of the pen, we would have been the favorites had we made it to the Supers.

I have no doubt that we would have beaten LSU in the SR.
06-11-2017 05:12 PM
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