(06-01-2017 01:51 PM)bullet Wrote: http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/democ...-midterms/
"GOP congressional candidate Greg Gianforte body-slammed a reporter the day before the U.S. House special election in Montana and still won by 6 percent. Democrats should take that as a harbinger of political doom on a par with meeting the weird sisters or receiving a visit from Hamlet’s father. You need no ghost to come from the grave to tell you that when your policies are 6 percent less popular than misdemeanor assault, you need new policies....
They’re dropping Kasich-wins-Ohio quantities of metaphorical confetti over Gianforte’s narrow 6-point win. They’re screaming, “Trump won by 20. Gianforte only won by 6. Montana is basically blue now. End of story.” The only problem is that when Trump won Montana by 20 points last November, guess who else was on the ballot that day. Greg Gianforte!
Gianforte ran for governor against Democrat incumbent Steve Bullock, and Gianforte lost by 4 points. That’s right! All those same voters who gave Trump a 20-point landslide on election day went right down the ballot and voted against Greg Gianforte. Gianforte lost by 4 last November but won by 6 points in the special election, so — by the logic underlying the media’s pretend political science — Montana voters are now much more Republican than they were seven months ago!..."
LOL. I saw that article on Real Clear. I always go to see their polls, then count the pro-Trump vs pro-Dem articles they promote...usually 70-30 pro-Trump.
First of all the article is from LifeZette
Secondly, the article is simply an opinion piece devoid of any real analysis
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The Dems need 28 seats to take back the House, even in the face of extreme GOP gerrymandering. Kansas' CD was probably about the 100th most likely to flip, the Montana one was in the 70's. Georgia 6, is probably in the high 50's to low 60s.
The house isn't going to turn on West Virginia, Eastern Kentucky, Kansas or Montana. It will turn on districts with higher numbers of minority voters and higher numbers of educated voters. It would be something to discuss if there really weren't a lot of districts like GA-6, but they exist in pretty large numbers. Right now I see EIGHT CDs in California that I think are going to flip. Some big names are going away (Issa, Rohrabacher). I see three in Texas (and that's before the courts redistrict - this summer). Florida has four districts where the GOP is in deep trouble even before Trump ruins Medicare. NY has another 4 districts that are going to be very hard for the GOP to hold. NJ has 2. Illinois has a few. So does Eastern Pennsylvania. I see about 50 seats that are in play right now. And Ga - 6 really isn't one of them.
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If the GOP wasn't worried about a Dem wave, then why do they want to ban party line voting?
BTW, I don't think today's action by Trump really helped him in GA-6
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Democrats should be worried about 2018
