We have reached a fork in the road of realignment where uniquely it may be in the best interest of FOX, ESPN, CBS, and or NBC to consider additions to existing conference contracts prior to the massive expiration of contracts beginning with the SEC/CBS deal in 2022, the FOX/B1G deal in 2023, the FOX/ESPN/Big 12 T1 & T2 deal in 2023, and the PAC lease to FOX/ESPN in 2023. The why is where the interests begin to tie into scenarios beneficial to the conferences and to the Big 12 schools in general.

If Amazon and other competitors of Amazon desire to enter the sports entertainment business then they will be waiting with fat wallets and anticipation for the massive rights expiration in 2022-3. Such an initial move could easily inflate costs for product beyond the normal market values. That kind of interference would cost existing linear networks even more in overhead to match or beat, if they could do so. Amazon has a heckuva fat bankroll. The current networks could utilize realignment to renegotiate and extend current rights contracts. If the extension was not harmful to conferences who might not like being locked in long term in a transitional market, but of enough duration to allow both the conferences and the networks to study new models and transition into the form that looked to be the most promising for both, it would allow conferences like the PAC and Big 10 which own equity in their current models to slowly adjust to new circumstances without having to take a big lump sum loss which would be likely with a rapid shift of models in 2022-3. Conferences like the SEC might like synchronizing the expiration dates of their T1 with CBS and T2&T3 with ESPN which would open more options for the sale of their product in the future and which with all of their rights in hand at once would give them more leverage to negotiate those rights. For the ACC the issue would be the acquisition of property perhaps as early as 2019 to boost the carriage and launch of their network.

For the Big 12 schools any current move would require at least 8 schools to be placed and all 10 would be preferable. FOX and ESPN, should they split those schools, would likely have 2 or 3 schools each to cover that they might not have had if they waited until the end of the GOR and just bid on the schools they wanted. But then by taking those 2 or 3 extra schools now they may save themselves product, and the whopping cost of that product if Amazon bid it up 6 to 7 years from now. Since UT, OU, KU would find homes anyway they lose nothing by moving early and gain that many more years of additional revenue. Getting in state schools taken care of is a huge plus in making the moves easier and more acceptable. That time is now.

Yes we all might make more if we waited, but we can get more now and have it for the next six years at the cost of about 4 more years on the present contracts, and by then we would all be better equipped to deal with the changes and to profit from them.

So let's reconsider the recent talk in light of this line of reasoning. OU has a fan base as fractured in opinion as to what the Sooners should do as Missouri had, and maybe even more so. OU has factions that want the PAC, the SEC, to stay in the Big 12, and that want to move to the Big 10, including their current President. No matter where they move, if a move is in the offing, say by the end of 2018's football season then starting that transition needs to take place soon. Just getting the OU faithful acclimated to the fact that a move is coming would enable them to avoid the shock that might come if the move was simply announced.

Finebaum is merely putting the SEC on notice that we might add somebody. He says Oklahoma, but that remains to be seen. If the Big 10 schools were assured of homes, and FOX and ESPN on board to make it possible, then worries over the GOR go away and planning can start. Even future scheduling can begin to take shape. That feature alone can take longer than two years to get nailed down. The legalities and logo changes take about a year to two depending on facilities requirements in the new conference home.

Does this mean all 10 might land in a P conference? Not necessarily. If FOX & ESPN pay each school their full contracts through the end of the GOR and the departing schools gave them exit fees that are applicable then it becomes a bankroll and at least the same income they would have received in the full duration of the Big 12 and a lot more money should they head to the AAC. But a P5 home is certainly possible here as well.

So for just a brief couple of years the self interest of Networks, Conferences, and Big 12 Schools coincide. While that doesn't mean early movement will happen, it does mean that is far more likely than most would think.

Finebaum tweeting within the last hour. Apparently he's had a conversation with Berry Tramel on his show today, I imagine. I haven't had a chance to listen to it.

Paul Finebaum‏ @finebaum 54m54 minutes ago
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Is OU & OKST a package deal in realignment?

"It would be very difficult for Oklahoma to untether themselves from Oklahoma St" @BerryTramel

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Paul Finebaum‏ @finebaum 51m51 minutes ago
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.@BerryTramel says OU fans are done with the Big 12.

"They are ready for the SEC & it's fairly overwhelming. It's wide support for the SEC"

The other day, I said Tramel is not a good source of information. I still believe that assuming he's actually being honest. Of course, he could be floating misinformation when he talks about the B1G.

Is this potentially another example of Finebaum preparing us for making additions? Perhaps in this case additions that most SEC fans would find a little odd. He's been talking about OU and OSU on and off for some time.

So Pawl keeps mentioning OU wanting outeven before the GOR is up. It's gonna take major collusion or major money for this to happen this early. If ESPN wanted OU out of the B12 early and with its TV rights, ESPN would have to make the remaining B12 schools happy and Fox. Setting up a B12 Network Online might be enough, but Fox might want considerations; say reduced payout out and choice of replacements.

(05-10-2017 04:06 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  So Pawl keeps mentioning OU wanting outeven before the GOR is up. It's gonna take major collusion or major money for this to happen this early. If ESPN wanted OU out of the B12 early and with its TV rights, ESPN would have to make the remaining B12 schools happy and Fox. Setting up a B12 Network Online might be enough, but Fox might want considerations; say reduced payout out and choice of replacements.

I covered most of the reasoning and options for placing the other schools in the OP. I think particularly that to continue to pay the remaining schools, if any, the full contract until the expiration of the GOR would mitigate or eliminate damage claims. Then the exit fees for each leaving would be very doable.

(05-10-2017 04:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 04:06 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  So Pawl keeps mentioning OU wanting outeven before the GOR is up. It's gonna take major collusion or major money for this to happen this early. If ESPN wanted OU out of the B12 early and with its TV rights, ESPN would have to make the remaining B12 schools happy and Fox. Setting up a B12 Network Online might be enough, but Fox might want considerations; say reduced payout out and choice of replacements.

I covered most of the reasoning and options for placing the other schools in the OP. I think particularly that to continue to pay the remaining schools, if any, the full contract until the expiration of the GOR would mitigate or eliminate damage claims. Then the exit fees for each leaving would be very doable.

What if Fox cancels its contract as a result of OU leaving early? There's not much in favor for Fox in this deal. ESPN would have to compensate them with what? The OU-UT broadcast rights for a set number of years?

I just don't see an affordable way to get OU or OU/OSU out of that GOR this early.

Random thought...

Has OU been bluffing about going to the B1G by themselves in order to save OSU?

Strategy being..."hey ESPN, take our little brother or we'll just leave and go to team FOX."

Using the SEC to acquire both Oklahoma and Texas is a great plan, but OSU doesn't really detract from profitability. Therefore OU wants them in the deal and is adamant about making it happen.

Grab the Oklahoma schools and it's not a far trip to nail down UT so it works just fine for both the SEC and ESPN if they pursue that course. However, don't grab the Oklahoma schools and it's much harder to nail down UT.

(05-10-2017 05:09 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 04:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 04:06 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  So Pawl keeps mentioning OU wanting outeven before the GOR is up. It's gonna take major collusion or major money for this to happen this early. If ESPN wanted OU out of the B12 early and with its TV rights, ESPN would have to make the remaining B12 schools happy and Fox. Setting up a B12 Network Online might be enough, but Fox might want considerations; say reduced payout out and choice of replacements.

I covered most of the reasoning and options for placing the other schools in the OP. I think particularly that to continue to pay the remaining schools, if any, the full contract until the expiration of the GOR would mitigate or eliminate damage claims. Then the exit fees for each leaving would be very doable.

What if Fox cancels its contract as a result of OU leaving early? There's not much in favor for Fox in this deal. ESPN would have to compensate them with what? The OU-UT broadcast rights for a set number of years?

I just don't see an affordable way to get OU or OU/OSU out of that GOR this early.

I think FOX could demand a few things.

1. A healthy slice of the state of TX.
2. No interference in an acquisition of the PACN.
3. The eventual ceding of rights to the B1G.

That last one makes me wonder...

Did ESPN bid on the B1G to use it as a bargaining chip later? That's essentially what they did with the LHN in order to control Texas for the long term...playing games with contracts that is.

FOX surely wants a bigger slice of the B1G, but maybe ESPN wants something in return for their cooperation...UT and OU.

Just another random thought.

(05-10-2017 05:18 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 05:09 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 04:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 04:06 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  So Pawl keeps mentioning OU wanting outeven before the GOR is up. It's gonna take major collusion or major money for this to happen this early. If ESPN wanted OU out of the B12 early and with its TV rights, ESPN would have to make the remaining B12 schools happy and Fox. Setting up a B12 Network Online might be enough, but Fox might want considerations; say reduced payout out and choice of replacements.

I covered most of the reasoning and options for placing the other schools in the OP. I think particularly that to continue to pay the remaining schools, if any, the full contract until the expiration of the GOR would mitigate or eliminate damage claims. Then the exit fees for each leaving would be very doable.

What if Fox cancels its contract as a result of OU leaving early? There's not much in favor for Fox in this deal. ESPN would have to compensate them with what? The OU-UT broadcast rights for a set number of years?

I just don't see an affordable way to get OU or OU/OSU out of that GOR this early.

I think FOX could demand a few things.

1. A healthy slice of the state of TX.
2. No interference in an acquisition of the PACN.
3. The eventual ceding of rights to the B1G.

That last one makes me wonder...

Did ESPN bid on the B1G to use it as a bargaining chip later? That's essentially what they did with the LHN in order to control Texas for the long term...playing games with contracts that is.

FOX surely wants a bigger slice of the B1G, but maybe ESPN wants something in return for their cooperation...UT and OU.

Just another random thought.

It's quite possible. And due to the coming outside influences it would be wise if the two of them worked together and did it early. But they can't make it look like they are working together.

(05-10-2017 05:24 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 05:18 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 05:09 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 04:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 04:06 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  So Pawl keeps mentioning OU wanting outeven before the GOR is up. It's gonna take major collusion or major money for this to happen this early. If ESPN wanted OU out of the B12 early and with its TV rights, ESPN would have to make the remaining B12 schools happy and Fox. Setting up a B12 Network Online might be enough, but Fox might want considerations; say reduced payout out and choice of replacements.

I covered most of the reasoning and options for placing the other schools in the OP. I think particularly that to continue to pay the remaining schools, if any, the full contract until the expiration of the GOR would mitigate or eliminate damage claims. Then the exit fees for each leaving would be very doable.

What if Fox cancels its contract as a result of OU leaving early? There's not much in favor for Fox in this deal. ESPN would have to compensate them with what? The OU-UT broadcast rights for a set number of years?

I just don't see an affordable way to get OU or OU/OSU out of that GOR this early.

I think FOX could demand a few things.

1. A healthy slice of the state of TX.
2. No interference in an acquisition of the PACN.
3. The eventual ceding of rights to the B1G.

That last one makes me wonder...

Did ESPN bid on the B1G to use it as a bargaining chip later? That's essentially what they did with the LHN in order to control Texas for the long term...playing games with contracts that is.

FOX surely wants a bigger slice of the B1G, but maybe ESPN wants something in return for their cooperation...UT and OU.

Just another random thought.

It's quite possible. And due to the coming outside influences it would be wise if the two of them worked together and did it early. But they can't make it look like they are working together.

Honestly, Fox needs inventory and good inventory. If they let OU and Texas join the SEC, Fox could outbid CBS for the teir one rights. The trade off would be ESPN giving Fox some of its B1G football package. I think ESPN needs just enough B1G games to keep subscribers in those states buying.

(05-10-2017 05:43 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 05:24 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 05:18 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 05:09 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 04:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I covered most of the reasoning and options for placing the other schools in the OP. I think particularly that to continue to pay the remaining schools, if any, the full contract until the expiration of the GOR would mitigate or eliminate damage claims. Then the exit fees for each leaving would be very doable.

What if Fox cancels its contract as a result of OU leaving early? There's not much in favor for Fox in this deal. ESPN would have to compensate them with what? The OU-UT broadcast rights for a set number of years?

I just don't see an affordable way to get OU or OU/OSU out of that GOR this early.

I think FOX could demand a few things.

1. A healthy slice of the state of TX.
2. No interference in an acquisition of the PACN.
3. The eventual ceding of rights to the B1G.

That last one makes me wonder...

Did ESPN bid on the B1G to use it as a bargaining chip later? That's essentially what they did with the LHN in order to control Texas for the long term...playing games with contracts that is.

FOX surely wants a bigger slice of the B1G, but maybe ESPN wants something in return for their cooperation...UT and OU.

Just another random thought.

It's quite possible. And due to the coming outside influences it would be wise if the two of them worked together and did it early. But they can't make it look like they are working together.

Honestly, Fox needs inventory and good inventory. If they let OU and Texas join the SEC, Fox could outbid CBS for the teir one rights. The trade off would be ESPN giving Fox some of its B1G football package. I think ESPN needs just enough B1G games to keep subscribers in those states buying.

There are plenty of work arounds. It might even be that ESPN could sublet FOX other rights to the SEC. Or maybe Texas just heads elsewhere.

Would it be worth it to Fox to give up the B12, mostly Texas & Oklahoma, for full rights to the B1G & the PAC? I think it would but would it worth it to ESPN? Possibly. What would ESPN do with the B12? Divvy it up between the SEC & the ACC taking them to 20(+?) or add G5 teams to the B12 to challenge Fox for a slice of the B1G & PAC markets? (Cincinnati & BYU for example.) Interesting premise.

To end it now I think they would have to divvy up the B12. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Iowa State, TT & BYU (for a slice of the PAC market) to the SEC. SEC at 20.

Texas, TCU, Baylor, Kansas State, WV & Cincinnati (for a slice of the B1G market) to the ACC. ND? If they come in full then they replace who? Would the ACC go to 24 with ND in full or stay at 21 in a 3x7?

(05-10-2017 06:14 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  Would it be worth it to Fox to give up the B12, mostly Texas & Oklahoma, for full rights to the B1G & the PAC? I think it would but would it worth it to ESPN? Possibly. What would ESPN do with the B12? Divvy it up between the SEC & the ACC taking them to 20(+?) or add G5 teams to the B12 to challenge Fox for a slice of the B1G & PAC markets? (Cincinnati & BYU for example.) Interesting premise.

To end it now I think they would have to divvy up the B12. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Iowa State, TT & BYU (for a slice of the PAC market) to the SEC. SEC at 20.

Texas, TCU, Baylor, Kansas State, WV & Cincinnati (for a slice of the B1G market) to the ACC. ND? If they come in full then they replace who? Would the ACC go to 24 with ND in full or stay at 21 in a 3x7?

1 solution could be for ESPN to keep BYU under contract as an independent & then replace them with WV or Kansas State. This would make room for ND & keep the ACC & SEC both at 20.

(?)
SEC
Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas State, Iowa State, TT

A&M, Arkansas, Missouri, Ole Miss, Kansas

Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Miss St, Vanderbilt

Florida, Georgia, Auburn, SC, Kentucky

ACC
Texas, TCU, Baylor, WV, Cincinnati

ND, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, BC

NC, Duke, Virginia, VT, GT

FSU, Clemson, Miami, NC St, WF

4 division games + 1 permanent rival + 1 from each division for 8 conference games. Each play 2 from the other conference for 10 total games. Maybe give BYU a 5-6 game scheduling alliance between the 2 conferences.

(05-10-2017 05:43 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 05:24 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 05:18 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 05:09 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 04:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I covered most of the reasoning and options for placing the other schools in the OP. I think particularly that to continue to pay the remaining schools, if any, the full contract until the expiration of the GOR would mitigate or eliminate damage claims. Then the exit fees for each leaving would be very doable.

What if Fox cancels its contract as a result of OU leaving early? There's not much in favor for Fox in this deal. ESPN would have to compensate them with what? The OU-UT broadcast rights for a set number of years?

I just don't see an affordable way to get OU or OU/OSU out of that GOR this early.

I think FOX could demand a few things.

1. A healthy slice of the state of TX.
2. No interference in an acquisition of the PACN.
3. The eventual ceding of rights to the B1G.

That last one makes me wonder...

Did ESPN bid on the B1G to use it as a bargaining chip later? That's essentially what they did with the LHN in order to control Texas for the long term...playing games with contracts that is.

FOX surely wants a bigger slice of the B1G, but maybe ESPN wants something in return for their cooperation...UT and OU.

Just another random thought.

It's quite possible. And due to the coming outside influences it would be wise if the two of them worked together and did it early. But they can't make it look like they are working together.

Honestly, Fox needs inventory and good inventory. If they let OU and Texas join the SEC, Fox could outbid CBS for the teir one rights. The trade off would be ESPN giving Fox some of its B1G football package. I think ESPN needs just enough B1G games to keep subscribers in those states buying.

It's a good point, but I think ESPN could keep those regions with its pro sports coverage. Most people in that region are bigger pro sports fans anyway.