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College Realignment Moves That Need to Happen
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #41
RE: College Realignment Moves That Need to Happen
(05-11-2017 12:27 PM)StinkyDuck Wrote:  
(05-11-2017 12:16 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  I was thinking hard about possible Big 12 expansion candidates last night, and finally came up with an interesting one, and I think it's the reason the Big 12 chose to table expansion: Arizona. If you look at the Arizona Wildcats, they really have no in-conference rivalries with the rest of the Pac 12 except for Arizona State. That being the case, they could very well leave the conference and just play Arizona State as an OOC game and nobody would probably notice.

The thing that stands out is stability. Even if Arizona wasn't happy (I think they are) with the PAC12 all they have to do is look long term. The PAC12 will still be here 30 years down the road, the Big12 is not a sure thing.

My wife is from Tucson and I have spent a lot of time there.

People there think of themselves as "Westerners". Many travel often to San Diego and other places in California.

I think that they see themselves more aligned toward the Pacific coast and Far West.

I am not sure that people who live in Southern Arizona have much affinity for a Plains based, "Middle West" conference.
05-11-2017 12:31 PM
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Post: #42
RE: College Realignment Moves That Need to Happen
Big 12 a better fit for Cats?

January 2016 article.

Although UA has sizable alumni groups in California, pros of Big 12 membership include fewer late-night kickoffs and tipoffs, Texas and Great Plains recruiting, and potentially better revenue sources.

Arizona and BYU to the Big 12?

OR, Arizona and SDSU?
05-11-2017 12:38 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #43
RE: College Realignment Moves That Need to Happen
(05-11-2017 12:16 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  I was thinking hard about possible Big 12 expansion candidates last night, and finally came up with an interesting one, and I think it's the reason the Big 12 chose to table expansion: Arizona. If you look at the Arizona Wildcats, they really have no in-conference rivalries with the rest of the Pac 12 except for Arizona State. That being the case, they could very well leave the conference and just play Arizona State as an OOC game and nobody would probably notice.


Yeah, no.

And how would that help rivalry situation?

And UA in basketball at least, has one of the most heated rivalries in the game with UCLA. And Oregon is getting there.

And Basketball is all that matters in Tucson.
05-11-2017 12:44 PM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #44
RE: College Realignment Moves That Need to Happen
(05-11-2017 12:38 PM)YNot Wrote:  Big 12 a better fit for Cats?

January 2016 article.

Although UA has sizable alumni groups in California, pros of Big 12 membership include fewer late-night kickoffs and tipoffs, Texas and Great Plains recruiting, and potentially better revenue sources.

Arizona and BYU to the Big 12?

OR, Arizona and SDSU?


I predict neither of the latter will join the Big 12. BYU? Maybe.

I think some sort of AAC/Big 12 merger more likely after 2024.
05-11-2017 12:46 PM
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Post: #45
RE: College Realignment Moves That Need to Happen
(05-11-2017 12:38 PM)YNot Wrote:  Big 12 a better fit for Cats?

January 2016 article.

Although UA has sizable alumni groups in California, pros of Big 12 membership include fewer late-night kickoffs and tipoffs, Texas and Great Plains recruiting, and potentially better revenue sources.

Arizona and BYU to the Big 12?

OR, Arizona and SDSU?

FWIW, Arizona and BYU could help the Big 12 gain a presence in Southern California and Vegas, without having a member school directly in those markets. Arizona and BYU already have a neutral-site game scheduled for 2021 in Vegas - which will likely move to the new NFL stadium.

The Big 12 could continue the Vegas neutral-site kickoff games and perhaps Los Angeles neutral-site games in the new LA stadium (v. PAC or B1G?), with BYU and Arizona heading that effort. Also, add an upgraded Las Vegas Bowl and bring back the Holiday Bowl to the Big 12 lineup....
05-11-2017 12:47 PM
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orangefan Offline
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Post: #46
RE: College Realignment Moves That Need to Happen
Ok, I'm a little unclear on why these moves "need" to happen. Here's the bottom line, every addition by a P5 or AQ conference over the past 30 years has either been to enhance the TV value of the conference or a reactive move responding to the loss of one or more schools to another conference. There are no other relevant reasons to consider.

On their face, none of these moves appear likely to increase the average per school payout to members of the conference, aside from ND to the ACC. With respect to that move, it seems unlikely that such a move would increase the television payout to ND for its football rights.

The one move with the potential to really move the needle for the value of a P5 conference's TV rights would be Texas, OU and 2 more from among KU, Ok.St. or TTU to the P12. The P12's existing footprint has far less population (i.e., TV households) than the B12, SEC or ACC, and the P12 lacks early start games for inclusion in its TV package. Texas and A&M to the P10 was considered by both sides before the formation of the B12 and this same P16 concept was actively considered by both sides back in 2010 and 2011. This is then followed by the reactive move of BYU, UH, Cincy, UConn and others to the B12.

Another possibility involved the Big Ten. The B1G's primary long term weakness is the demographics of its geographic footprint. Its population is not growing as rapidly as the south and west, which affects both the relative size of its fanbase and the availability of quality football talent within its own footprint. The obvious move would be to target a school in Texas or Florida, but North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia would also be strong markets to add. Nobody is leaving the SEC, so that means targeting the ACC or the B12. However, the ACC's member's are contractually committed until 2036. That leaves Texas as the only school that fits the bill. They would need a "running mate" to make the move. OU would be the obvious choice, but KU may have some appeal as well. Flip Purdue into the East and call it good.
(This post was last modified: 05-11-2017 01:55 PM by orangefan.)
05-11-2017 12:50 PM
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Post: #47
RE: College Realignment Moves That Need to Happen
(05-11-2017 12:44 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Yeah, no.

And how would that help rivalry situation?

And UA in basketball at least, has one of the most heated rivalries in the game with UCLA. And Oregon is getting there.

And Basketball is all that matters in Tucson.

I tend to agree that it is a long shot idea. But, Arizona-Kansas and a conference that sends 70% of its teams to the tournament (instead of 33%) would at least get a long look.
05-11-2017 12:51 PM
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TodgeRodge Offline
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Post: #48
RE: College Realignment Moves That Need to Happen
(05-11-2017 12:27 PM)StinkyDuck Wrote:  
(05-11-2017 12:16 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  I was thinking hard about possible Big 12 expansion candidates last night, and finally came up with an interesting one, and I think it's the reason the Big 12 chose to table expansion: Arizona. If you look at the Arizona Wildcats, they really have no in-conference rivalries with the rest of the Pac 12 except for Arizona State. That being the case, they could very well leave the conference and just play Arizona State as an OOC game and nobody would probably notice.

The thing that stands out is stability. Even if Arizona wasn't happy (I think they are) with the PAC12 all they have to do is look long term. The PAC12 will still be here 30 years down the road, the Big12 is not a sure thing.

when one looks at the financial picture of the states, the universities and of the athletics departments in the PAC 12 there is no guarantee it will stay the same forever

there are a couple of PAC 12 states with major higher ed budget issues and there are several PAC 12 universities with budget issues especially when it comes to athletics debt, athletics income, and athletics subsidies from the academic side

over the long term especially if TV money does not keep up and if some of these states and universities can't figure out their budget issues and if some departments can't pay down debt and lessen subsides from the academic side there could be PAC 12 programs that decide they want to be in a conference where teams are not just existing to exist

that does not mean the Big 12 would be the first choice of the ones that would have a choice, but the Big 12 could be there for those with less of a choice

and the PAC 12 is the conference that comes up first in 2023-24 so that will set the stage for the others

the PAC 12 has always been the conference that tried to hold the line on athletics spending and I respect them for trying, but they have not succeeded in that lately and they are the conference with the largest number of schools that will turn on athletics if the spending gets much more out of hand
05-11-2017 02:09 PM
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Big Frog II Offline
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Post: #49
RE: College Realignment Moves That Need to Happen
The Pac 12 does continue to fall further behind the others in TV revenue. It is just as possible as TodgeRodge stated that PAC 12 teams could look east when their TV contract expires.
05-11-2017 03:02 PM
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