(05-05-2017 01:36 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote: (05-03-2017 06:25 PM)jrj84105 Wrote: (05-03-2017 05:08 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote: (05-03-2017 04:24 PM)jrj84105 Wrote: (05-03-2017 04:05 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: Will ESPN be willing to spend that money? That is an open question now.
The pot for TV revenue is shrinking, and the only way to generate the kind of revenue to effect Realignment is reduce the number of people eating from the pot. The BigXII is most vulnerable because realistically, you could drop half the BigXIi's membership without losing many cable subscribers. Dropping 6 BigXII members to G5 pay frees up some money, but really only about 150M/yr or 10M more for each of the new PAC16. That's still not catching up to the SEC and B1G, but it's really close. Dropping a few PAC members who are also superfluous while adding UT, OU, KU would do the trick. Basically, the only way I see PAC expansion happening is if it's more of a merger with a few schools dropped. That seems improbable, so I don't see it happening.
A PAC-X that eliminates WSU and OSU in favor of UT and OU would work. Add the PAC could add any 2 more (14) and realistically not have to many issues with divisional alignment as Eastern schools would maintain their CA exposure in cross division play due to removing OSU and WSU from that division.
No one is getting dropped. Once that door is open teams like your and mine will see ourselves out of it in due time. Also no way the state governments allow it's sister schools to vote to kick out the other schools.
I agree that no P5 will drop members. But I think only the B1G and SEC are guaranteed survival. If (big if) those two in collaboration with ESPN/FOX were to go full super league we could wind up with a 50-60 school P2 where some ACC, BigXII, and PAC members get dropped. Your school IMO as a B1G member is in a very, very safe place. But if the B1G wanted to go National by adding the Best of the West I'd be hoping, but far from sure, that Utah could grab one of the final spots.
I don't think it's entirely far-fetched that a P2 could happen. The mechanism would be 1) at end of BigXII GoR dissolve the BigXII and move valuable properties (OU, KU, UT affiliated) to PAC in exchange for Network equity. 2) at end of LHN dissolve the PAC and move valuable properties into the B1G. The UT, OU, KU votes make it so UW, OU can't protect OSU/WSU.
The Pac would be included for west coast exposure.
Most of the PAC, anyway.
The ACC, BigXII, and PAC are all underpaid relative to the SEC and B1G. People talk about "placing" enough BigXII members to effect BigXII dissolution, but of the PAC, BigXII, and ACC only the PAC has enough valuable members that one could actually pull dissolution off.
If the B1G or SEC were to go SuperLeague there would be at minimum room for UW, UO, Cal, Furd, USC, UCLA, CU, and one (probably both) of the AZ schools in either a FOX or ESPN league. OSU and WSU would be out and Utah would depend on whether or not it made divisional alignments work. It only takes 9 votes to dissolve the PAC, so it's not like OSU, WSU, and Utah could prevent it. UW and OU might give the dissolution "nay" enough votes until USC threatens to go independent at which point one of UW or UO would cave.
Add 10 PAC schools (minus ORSU and WSU) to either the B1G or SEC and how does that look?
SEC West:
Coast: UW, UO, Cal, Furd, USC, UCLA
Border: ASU, AZ, UU, CU, A&M, LSU
SEC East:
Gulf: Ark, Mizzou, Bama, Aub, Miss, MSU
Atlantic: Fla, UGA, TN, Vandy, SC, KY
That national network has more clout than the current SECN while bringing in all 3 top recruiting states. If ESPN wanted to cut costs to make a. Ew acquisition, this would be a good one.
/
Conference Realignment Revisited 2010
