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Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
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Post: #1
Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
It's not necessarily the most exciting way, which is the one and done that we're used to but it's the fairest way.

What they should do is hold a double elimination tournament for each pod. For example, the 1, 16, 8, 9 would all play until three have 2 losses. Rinse, lather, repeat when the four winners from each region get to the Sweet 16. I'm torn on the Final Four, I think there's a certain charm when it comes to the national title game but in the name of fairness, if nothing else the Final Four should be reseeded, if not a total double round robin. Perhaps they could reseed, play a one off game in the semifinals and then a 3-game series for the title..

That said, I know it'll never happen given the popularity of the status quo.
05-01-2017 01:33 PM
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Post: #2
RE: Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
Can't find it with a cursory look on the googles, but some math dude broke down the importance of multiple game vs one-off tournaments by sport.

Main thing I took away from it was that the harder it is to score in a given sport the more important it is to not determine a champion based on single elimination. Or rephrased, single elimination = bad in soccer, hockey, and baseball, but Ok in football and basketball.

The thing is in college basketball seeding is huge. Randomness in outcomes becomes a bigger factor as the tournament proceeds into more closely matched teams.

An overseeded team ends up with an easier path and randomness can mean advancing in later rounds after playing an easier than warranted path while an underseeded team may be eliminated.

Double elimination though isn't TV friendly nor is it office bracket friendly.
05-01-2017 01:59 PM
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Nittany_Bearcat Offline
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RE: Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
Ugh - I disagree completely. The popularity of the Tournament is because of the one-and-done nature of it all. E.g., can Lehigh and the then-unknown CJ McCollum beat Duke in their one shot at one of college basketball's blue bloods.

In a double-elimination tournament back in 2012, Duke loses to Lehigh in Game 1 but they play again after Duke beats Notre Dame in the "losers bracket" and Xavier beats Lehigh (as in real life) in the "winners bracket." I suspect that Duke beats Lehigh in that re-match. Good bye Cinderella.

That said, I do like the double-elimination tournament for baseball. Pitching depth should matter, and that gets tested when a team has to play anywhere from 3-5 games over 3-4 days to advance through a regional.
(This post was last modified: 05-01-2017 02:10 PM by Nittany_Bearcat.)
05-01-2017 02:02 PM
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orangefan Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
(05-01-2017 02:02 PM)Nittany_Bearcat Wrote:  Ugh - I disagree completely. The popularity of the Tournament is because of the one-and-done nature of it all. E.g., can Lehigh and the then-unknown CJ McCollum beat Duke in their one shot at one of college basketball's blue bloods.

In a double-elimination tournament back in 2012, Duke loses to Lehigh in Game 1 but they play again after Duke beats Notre Dame in the "losers bracket" and Xavier beats Lehigh (as in real life) in the "winners bracket." I suspect that Duke beats Lehigh in that re-match. Good bye Cinderella.

That said, I do like the double-elimination tournament for baseball. Pitching depth should matter, and that gets tested when a team has to play anywhere from 3-5 games over 3-4 days to advance through a regional.

Agreed. It's important to remember that the entertainment value of a sporting event needs to be balanced against having a format that provides the truest measure of the best team.

The playoff format of the NFL does both things extremely well. The NBA and NHL playoff formats are extremely good measures of a champion, but result in a huge number of games, including many games early in a series that don't matter, and many series that aren't particularly competitive. That is probably desirable to the leagues, though, since it creates more tickets to sell.

Baseball did an extremely good job until they added the wild card. That is a crazy format for a sport that plays every day for six months. A 2 out of 3 format would be much better, but is not as appealing for TV and would stretch the playoff schedule, which is too long as it is.

Arguably, you would get a more accurate result if you cut the NCAA basketball tournament down to 16 schools with best of three series at each round, but that format would completely undermine the excitement created by the win or go home aspect of the tournament that makes it so incredibly exciting.
05-01-2017 02:44 PM
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C2__ Offline
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RE: Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
Can't say I agree with the first reply. All it takes is one hot shooting night to wipe away a great season by a favorite or a tough break in a coin flip game. Notice how in the NBA, the overwhelming majority of the series are won by the better team. They can absorb an upset and come back and win.

So I disagree with that rationale.
05-01-2017 03:00 PM
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Nittany_Bearcat Offline
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RE: Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
(05-01-2017 03:00 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Can't say I agree with the first reply. All it takes is one hot shooting night to wipe away a great season by a favorite or a tough break in a coin flip game. Notice how in the NBA, the overwhelming majority of the series are won by the better team. They can absorb an upset and come back and win.

So I disagree with that rationale.

That is true. "More losses before being eliminated" is more fair.

But look at the baseball tournament --- that's 64 teams with double-elimination at every point of the way. That means:

1st round: anywhere from 6-7 games in each of 16 regionals (96-112 games total).

2nd round: anywhere from 2-3 games in each of the 8 Super-regionals (16-24 games total).

3rd round: anywhere from 6-7 games in each of the 2 Omaha brackets (12-14 games total).

Finals: either 2 or 3 games.

That's anywhere from 126 to 153 games total. Much harder logistically for basketball (where you can't really have teams playing multiple games on the same day, as sometimes happens in the baseball tourney as teams advance through the loser brackets).

Here's an idea (that will never happen, but an idea): We DO have a best-out-of-3 tournament, but we take ONLY the 32 D-1 conference regular season Champions.

That way, everyone still has access to the tournament (which I think is important). The best-of-3 is more fair vs single elimination. Anywhere from 62 to 94 games total (more than 63 but less than 126-153). And imagine how much more important that would make the college hoops regular season!
05-01-2017 03:13 PM
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Post: #7
RE: Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
IMO, the NCAA Tournament format is one of the purest, simplest and most entertaining aspects of college sports. It will always have the upper hand on anything in football because the CFP can only take 4 teams for the foreseeable future, and - in basketball - you can get away with playing multiple games over a weekend stretch. That's something football - at any level - will be unable to do. The other thing is that each and every tournament is game is must-see. You can't say that about all bowl games.

Trying to tinker with it would be foolish. It truly is perfect the way it is currently constructed.
05-01-2017 03:20 PM
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goofus Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
I agree for entertainment purposes, one and done is best, but if you want it to be more fair, I would prefer best 2 out of 3 for every round except the play-in games which be still 1 game only.

So the play-in games would be on Tues
Then the round of 64 games would be Wed to Fri.
Round of 32 would be Sat to Mon.

Round of 16 would be wed to fri.
Round of 8 would be Sat to Mon
Round of 4 would be Wed to Fri
Championship round be Sat to Mon.

Best case 12 games total for champion
Worst case 19 games total for champion
(This post was last modified: 05-01-2017 03:36 PM by goofus.)
05-01-2017 03:35 PM
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Post: #9
RE: Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
(05-01-2017 03:00 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Can't say I agree with the first reply. All it takes is one hot shooting night to wipe away a great season by a favorite or a tough break in a coin flip game. Notice how in the NBA, the overwhelming majority of the series are won by the better team. They can absorb an upset and come back and win.

So I disagree with that rationale.

Having a hot night in hoops isn't as random as say the NHL where single elimination would see a team win based on a single deflected shot.

Single elimination introduces more randomness in the outcome but the probability of the better team winning single elimination in basketball is higher than it is in baseball, hockey or soccer.

Sure a hot night happens in basketball but there is greater opportunity to recover in a game with 40 made baskets than a game with 7 runs scored or 3 goals scored.
05-01-2017 03:58 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
I 85% agree with keeping it single elimination ... for nothing other than the fact that the "fun" of March Madness is the upsets.

If you were going to completely scrap the system and do an NBA Finals style of playoffs with the top 16 teams in the country, though, I could see where that would also have high TV value with the 'best-of-__" series.
05-01-2017 04:01 PM
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Post: #11
RE: Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
(05-01-2017 03:13 PM)Nittany_Bearcat Wrote:  
(05-01-2017 03:00 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Can't say I agree with the first reply. All it takes is one hot shooting night to wipe away a great season by a favorite or a tough break in a coin flip game. Notice how in the NBA, the overwhelming majority of the series are won by the better team. They can absorb an upset and come back and win.

So I disagree with that rationale.

That is true. "More losses before being eliminated" is more fair.

But look at the baseball tournament --- that's 64 teams with double-elimination at every point of the way. That means:

1st round: anywhere from 6-7 games in each of 16 regionals (96-112 games total).

2nd round: anywhere from 2-3 games in each of the 8 Super-regionals (16-24 games total).

3rd round: anywhere from 6-7 games in each of the 2 Omaha brackets (12-14 games total).

Finals: either 2 or 3 games.

That's anywhere from 126 to 153 games total. Much harder logistically for basketball (where you can't really have teams playing multiple games on the same day, as sometimes happens in the baseball tourney as teams advance through the loser brackets).

Here's an idea (that will never happen, but an idea): We DO have a best-out-of-3 tournament, but we take ONLY the 32 D-1 conference regular season Champions.

That way, everyone still has access to the tournament (which I think is important). The best-of-3 is more fair vs single elimination. Anywhere from 62 to 94 games total (more than 63 but less than 126-153). And imagine how much more important that would make the college hoops regular season!

The basketball tournament weekend is four days. At the most, teams would play five games in five days, which many already come close to doing anyways during their conference tournament season. And that scenario would be rare. Therefore, it's not a major stetch. They'd still be at one site too.
05-01-2017 04:19 PM
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RE: Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
(05-01-2017 03:35 PM)goofus Wrote:  I agree for entertainment purposes, one and done is best, but if you want it to be more fair, I would prefer best 2 out of 3 for every round except the play-in games which be still 1 game only.

So the play-in games would be on Tues
Then the round of 64 games would be Wed to Fri.
Round of 32 would be Sat to Mon.

Round of 16 would be wed to fri.
Round of 8 would be Sat to Mon
Round of 4 would be Wed to Fri
Championship round be Sat to Mon.

Best case 12 games total for champion
Worst case 19 games total for champion

Too much time away from the classroom, which we know is a joke for some but still, it would take them away from school for too long. Plus, you can't have teams playing 6 days a week, not even the NBA does that. That and the entertainment value would sink astronomically under that format. That's why I propose the pods. It wouldn't change much except lessen the impact of fluke upsets.
05-01-2017 04:26 PM
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Post: #13
RE: Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
(05-01-2017 04:26 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  
(05-01-2017 03:35 PM)goofus Wrote:  I agree for entertainment purposes, one and done is best, but if you want it to be more fair, I would prefer best 2 out of 3 for every round except the play-in games which be still 1 game only.

So the play-in games would be on Tues
Then the round of 64 games would be Wed to Fri.
Round of 32 would be Sat to Mon.

Round of 16 would be wed to fri.
Round of 8 would be Sat to Mon
Round of 4 would be Wed to Fri
Championship round be Sat to Mon.

Best case 12 games total for champion
Worst case 19 games total for champion

Too much time away from the classroom, which we know is a joke for some but still, it would take them away from school for too long. Plus, you can't have teams playing 6 days a week, not even the NBA does that. That and the entertainment value would sink astronomically under that format. That's why I propose the pods. It wouldn't change much except lessen the impact of fluke upsets.

It wouldn't change much except the impact of fluke upsets? That potential impact is exactly what makes the tournament what it is. In a best two out of three, there is no chance NC State becomes National Champion in 1983. Oh, wait. Is that what this is all about?
05-01-2017 04:44 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
(05-01-2017 02:44 PM)orangefan Wrote:  
(05-01-2017 02:02 PM)Nittany_Bearcat Wrote:  Ugh - I disagree completely. The popularity of the Tournament is because of the one-and-done nature of it all. E.g., can Lehigh and the then-unknown CJ McCollum beat Duke in their one shot at one of college basketball's blue bloods.

In a double-elimination tournament back in 2012, Duke loses to Lehigh in Game 1 but they play again after Duke beats Notre Dame in the "losers bracket" and Xavier beats Lehigh (as in real life) in the "winners bracket." I suspect that Duke beats Lehigh in that re-match. Good bye Cinderella.

That said, I do like the double-elimination tournament for baseball. Pitching depth should matter, and that gets tested when a team has to play anywhere from 3-5 games over 3-4 days to advance through a regional.

Agreed. It's important to remember that the entertainment value of a sporting event needs to be balanced against having a format that provides the truest measure of the best team.

The playoff format of the NFL does both things extremely well.

FWIW, I've never thought the NFL playoffs do a good job of measuring the best team. One and done is too liable to fluke results.

But the nature of football is such that best-of series as the other major sports have is impractical.
05-01-2017 05:11 PM
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RE: Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
I like the tourney the way it is. If anything, I might make the final four a double elimination.
05-01-2017 06:15 PM
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RE: Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
(05-01-2017 05:11 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  One and done is too liable to fluke results.

For what it's worth, I played around a bit in Excel. The numbers for a best-of-101 series surprised me a bit --- even with impractically long series like that a team needs to be decisively better to win >90% of the time.

If Team A has a 55% chance of beating Team B in a given game:

Team A wins a best-of-1 series 55% of the time (duh)
Team A wins a best-of-3 series 57% of the time
Team A wins a best-of-7 series 61% of the time
Team A wins a best-of-15 series 65% of the time
Team A wins a best-of-101 series 84% of the time

If Team A has a 60% chance of beating Team B in a given game:

Team A wins a best-of-1 series 60% of the time
Team A wins a best-of-3 series 68% of the time
Team A wins a best-of-7 series 71% of the time
Team A wins a best-of-15 series 79% of the time
Team A wins a best-of-101 series 98% of the time

If Team A has a 70% chance of beating Team B in a given game:

Team A wins a best-of-1 series 70% of the time
Team A wins a best-of-3 series 78% of the time
Team A wins a best-of-7 series 87% of the time
Team A wins a best-of-15 series 95% of the time
Team A wins a best-of-101 series 100% of the time
05-01-2017 08:56 PM
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Post: #17
RE: Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
EDIT: dumb post, didn't think it through all the way
(This post was last modified: 05-02-2017 11:07 AM by MplsBison.)
05-01-2017 10:33 PM
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Post: #18
RE: Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
(05-01-2017 10:33 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Those numbers aren't correct.

For example, if winning a game is 0.7 and losing is 0.3, then the probability of winning a best of three is 0.7^3 + 0.7^2*0.3 = 0.49 (49%).

And that of course assumes every game is completely independent, which they never are in truth.

Ah, my favorite type of internet poster. The person who corrects someone on the internet but is NOT correct himself. 05-nono 05-nono 05-nono

Team A wins both game 1 and game 2= 0.7 * 0.7 = 49%

Team A wins game 1, loses game 2, wins game 3 = 0.7 * 0.3 * 0.7 = 14.7%

Team A loses game 1, wins game 2, wins game 3 = 0.3 * 0.7 * 0.7 = 14.7%

Sum them up, it's 78.4%, rounds down to 78%.
05-01-2017 11:28 PM
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Post: #19
RE: Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
In the sense that March Madness is supposed to be crowning a national championship, I agree it is terribly bad. You have very uneven paths, there is never reseeding, and it does not matter if you were 30-0 going into the tournament winning the strongest conference in the country, you lose one game to a 20-10 team and you are out and they keep going.

That said, as far as an event, the current format cannot be beat. It's extremely exciting and the one and done nature and wildness is what people love.

It will never change and I am not sure I would want it to although the flip side of that is that I never want college football getting any closer to a basketball feeling either (since I like the extreme high stakes of the college football regular season).
05-02-2017 07:25 AM
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RE: Fairest Way to do the NCAA Tournament
I would just settle for the NCAA enhancing the regular season by changing the auto bid system. Rate the conferences using whatever computer system. Leagues rated 1-16 get an auto bid for their regular season champion and if the champion loses in the league tournament they get another bid for the tournament champ.
Champions of leagues rated 1-8 are pre-assigned to a sub-regional. So if you are say the B1G you know going into the season that if you win the regular season you are playing in say Milwaukee but you are still playing for seeding once you clinch.

Gives the fans a chance to make their travel arrangements and should bolster crowds at the sub-regionals.

Almost eliminates the chance that a top 40ish team from a mid-major wins their conference and gets snubbed for a tournament loss.

Makes the regular season more important and I value that over trying to get more viewers for the NCAA Tournament.
05-02-2017 08:51 AM
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