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Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
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orangefan Offline
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Post: #1
Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
Time to look at the recent news at ESPN from another angle. As I've stated elsewhere, while ESPN remains an extremely profitable company, it has reached a stage where those profits aren't growing anymore. Disney's success as a company over the past several years (it has nearly tripled in value over the past 5 years) has been built on growth, and ESPN has been a major part of that.

One of the biggest factors pressing ESPN's profitability is the rising costs of rights fees. It's four biggest contracts are with the NFL ($1.9 billion/year), NBA ($1.4 billion/year), MLB ($700 million/year) and CFP/NY6 ($608 million/year). As these contracts come up again, there will be significant pressure to hold the line on the price paid or even reduce the payouts.

This problem is compounded for the CFP/NY6 because ratings have been short of expectations. To date, the ratings of many of the non-playoff NY6 bowls have been disappointing. The non-playoff Sugar Bowl has been a complete disaster ratings wise. Non-playoff Rose Bowl ratings are also down from the BCS era, likely because the game becomes anticlimactic with the semis having been completed. The attempt to play a noon NY6 game on New Year's Eve drew dismal ratings. The ratings of the semifinals played on New Year's Eve have also been disappointing, leading to a rescheduling of these to the Saturday before New Year's Day in many years.

Given these factors, if nothing changes, ESPN would almost certainly be looking to hold the line or even cut the payouts to the CFP when the contract next comes up in 8 years. However, sports organizations always like to see growth in rights fees as they move forward. Fortunately the CFP has an alternative to counteract this problem - expand the CFP to an 8 team format. I'm not saying this is good or bad, it is simply reality, and recent events at ESPN make it more likely to happen.
04-28-2017 08:19 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
It cements what we know about college athletics: it moves when the money's better for the right players.

This is one of those situations where a fan like me would get what he'd want to see (an expanded playoff pool), but done in a way that totally exposes the sham of the operation.

We all know this stuff should be like what's there in FCS and the NCAA tournament. A defined field with AQ and all that. But, it isn't. Done under the cloak of autonomy, freedom, whatever bull**** hyperbole or abstract you want to call it, this is a good ole boys club of about 50-60 major programs, a couple of old bowls, and the racket they pull with media partners to make sure they all control the product. It's textbook anti-trust material, but, what are you going to do?

Do the ends justify the means? I mean, while it may be an easy "yes" to some...couldn't this be the sort of line in the sand where someone says enough to the whole structure and sues to recoup or break up the shell game? I might wait a lifetime, and may never see the governments come back at this structure and force schools to pony up on taxes. I may expire, but the argument won't. And this brings it closer, if even a fraction of an inch on a track that spans miles.
(This post was last modified: 04-28-2017 09:15 AM by The Cutter of Bish.)
04-28-2017 09:14 AM
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JHS55 Offline
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Post: #3
Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
You are correct sir...
04-28-2017 09:24 AM
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RE: Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
(04-28-2017 09:14 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  It cements what we know about college athletics: it moves when the money's better for the right players.

This is one of those situations where a fan like me would get what he'd want to see (an expanded playoff pool), but done in a way that totally exposes the sham of the operation.

We all know this stuff should be like what's there in FCS and the NCAA tournament. A defined field with AQ and all that. But, it isn't. Done under the cloak of autonomy, freedom, whatever bull**** hyperbole or abstract you want to call it, this is a good ole boys club of about 50-60 major programs, a couple of old bowls, and the racket they pull with media partners to make sure they all control the product. It's textbook anti-trust material, but, what are you going to do?

Do the ends justify the means? I mean, while it may be an easy "yes" to some...couldn't this be the sort of line in the sand where someone says enough to the whole structure and sues to recoup or break up the shell game? I might wait a lifetime, and may never see the governments come back at this structure and force schools to pony up on taxes. I may expire, but the argument won't. And this brings it closer, if even a fraction of an inch on a track that spans miles.

This^
04-28-2017 09:38 AM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
(04-28-2017 09:14 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  It cements what we know about college athletics: it moves when the money's better for the right players.

This is one of those situations where a fan like me would get what he'd want to see (an expanded playoff pool), but done in a way that totally exposes the sham of the operation.

We all know this stuff should be like what's there in FCS and the NCAA tournament. A defined field with AQ and all that. But, it isn't. Done under the cloak of autonomy, freedom, whatever bull**** hyperbole or abstract you want to call it, this is a good ole boys club of about 50-60 major programs, a couple of old bowls, and the racket they pull with media partners to make sure they all control the product. It's textbook anti-trust material, but, what are you going to do?

Do the ends justify the means? I mean, while it may be an easy "yes" to some...couldn't this be the sort of line in the sand where someone says enough to the whole structure and sues to recoup or break up the shell game? I might wait a lifetime, and may never see the governments come back at this structure and force schools to pony up on taxes. I may expire, but the argument won't. And this brings it closer, if even a fraction of an inch on a track that spans miles.

Where you see textbook anti-trust material, I see a free market at work. I suppose if I were a fan of a G5 school or conference, I might prefer that someone intervene to give me a bigger slice of the pie than that market wants to give me.

I don't see that desire to be much different than someone insisting that actors in B-movies be given more starring roles in major motion pictures. If the public prefers watching Meryl Streep or Tom Hanks instead of Bruce Campbell, what's wrong (or unjust) about that?

Why should FBS football be like FCS football, or basketball? "Should" has nothing to do with this. There is no "should" in the entertainment business.

I think we should be careful what we wish for. An expanded playoff isn't going to help the little guys of the college football world. At the end of the day, it will mean that ESPN will pay less than they do now, and that reduction in pay is going to come out of the pockets of the little guys. They will get less money and less exposure than they do today. The gravy train is slowing down.
04-28-2017 09:44 AM
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JHS55 Offline
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Post: #6
Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
So ken d, are you happy that college football has moved to eliminate half of FBS teams from a fighting chance for a championship
You have your own p5 championship because of espn
Remember that little school called Miami?, they had no real football success until they tried, but in today's world you seem to be happy to eliminate this fighting chance.
So my question to you ken d is, are you happy ?
04-28-2017 10:13 AM
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bullet Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
(04-28-2017 09:44 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(04-28-2017 09:14 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  It cements what we know about college athletics: it moves when the money's better for the right players.

This is one of those situations where a fan like me would get what he'd want to see (an expanded playoff pool), but done in a way that totally exposes the sham of the operation.

We all know this stuff should be like what's there in FCS and the NCAA tournament. A defined field with AQ and all that. But, it isn't. Done under the cloak of autonomy, freedom, whatever bull**** hyperbole or abstract you want to call it, this is a good ole boys club of about 50-60 major programs, a couple of old bowls, and the racket they pull with media partners to make sure they all control the product. It's textbook anti-trust material, but, what are you going to do?

Do the ends justify the means? I mean, while it may be an easy "yes" to some...couldn't this be the sort of line in the sand where someone says enough to the whole structure and sues to recoup or break up the shell game? I might wait a lifetime, and may never see the governments come back at this structure and force schools to pony up on taxes. I may expire, but the argument won't. And this brings it closer, if even a fraction of an inch on a track that spans miles.

Where you see textbook anti-trust material, I see a free market at work. I suppose if I were a fan of a G5 school or conference, I might prefer that someone intervene to give me a bigger slice of the pie than that market wants to give me.

I don't see that desire to be much different than someone insisting that actors in B-movies be given more starring roles in major motion pictures. If the public prefers watching Meryl Streep or Tom Hanks instead of Bruce Campbell, what's wrong (or unjust) about that?

Why should FBS football be like FCS football, or basketball? "Should" has nothing to do with this. There is no "should" in the entertainment business.

I think we should be careful what we wish for. An expanded playoff isn't going to help the little guys of the college football world. At the end of the day, it will mean that ESPN will pay less than they do now, and that reduction in pay is going to come out of the pockets of the little guys. They will get less money and less exposure than they do today. The gravy train is slowing down.

Its a classic oligopoly between ESPN/Fox and the P5. It is definitely not a totally free market.
04-28-2017 10:17 AM
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JHS55 Offline
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Post: #8
Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
Bullet, you are correct sir...
04-28-2017 10:19 AM
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RE: Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
Look at how ESPN was willing to pay $13-$15 million to the Big East football schools with Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, Rutgers, TCU, UConn, Cincinnati, South Florida and Temple. The AAC gets around $2 million.

Is that really that much better than 4 of the same schools (UConn, Cincinnati, South Florida, Temple) plus Memphis, Houston, Navy, UCF, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa and ECU?
04-28-2017 10:21 AM
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Post: #10
RE: Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
The problem of CFP ratings is largely one of not having enough January timeslots.

Move to an 8 team playoff with another round in January and I can gaurantee ratings improve.

I think its obvious that ESPN is not real excited about accelerating the growth of G5 TV contracts. What you are seeing is a growth of G5 payouts which is a substitute.

CFP is modeling itself after the NCAA tournament cash cow as a mega contract to float all conferences.

Whats most at stake are P5 deals if anything because 300 million a year is a lot to pay 1 conference.


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04-28-2017 10:34 AM
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Post: #11
Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
Kittonhead, you are correct sir...
04-28-2017 10:45 AM
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RE: Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
(04-28-2017 10:17 AM)bullet Wrote:  Its a classic oligopoly between ESPN/Fox and the P5. It is definitely not a totally free market.

No, other media companies have more than enough money and have some interest in college sports, they just spend their money in other ways. CBS pays obscene amounts for March Madness and also has SEC football. Turner is also invested in March Madness. NBC has Notre Dame football and bid so much for Pac-12 rights that ESPN and Fox had to be persuaded to bid jointly in order to outbid NBC.

There's nothing stopping any of those three giant media companies from paying tons of money for non-P5 college sports, except the fact that they don't want to.
04-28-2017 10:51 AM
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RE: Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
(04-28-2017 10:21 AM)bullet Wrote:  Look at how ESPN was willing to pay $13-$15 million to the Big East football schools with Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, Rutgers, TCU, UConn, Cincinnati, South Florida and Temple. The AAC gets around $2 million.

Is that really that much better than 4 of the same schools (UConn, Cincinnati, South Florida, Temple) plus Memphis, Houston, Navy, UCF, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa and ECU?

If we are talking play on the field (football), there is not a lot of difference. There are a couple more bad teams at the bottom in the AAC but they also have 4 more members. Navy, Houston, Memphis and Temple have been pretty solid for the past few years and would have been highly competitive with WVU, Louisville and Cincinnati (the cream of the crop in the Big East from 2005-2011).

Obviously the biggest difference between the two schools is what they offer in basketball; but every keeps throwing around that basketball only accounts for about 20% of what the value of a conference media value is.
04-28-2017 10:55 AM
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RE: Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
Who knows, but I hope so. 07-coffee3
04-28-2017 11:00 AM
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RE: Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
(04-28-2017 09:44 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(04-28-2017 09:14 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  It cements what we know about college athletics: it moves when the money's better for the right players.

This is one of those situations where a fan like me would get what he'd want to see (an expanded playoff pool), but done in a way that totally exposes the sham of the operation.

We all know this stuff should be like what's there in FCS and the NCAA tournament. A defined field with AQ and all that. But, it isn't. Done under the cloak of autonomy, freedom, whatever bull**** hyperbole or abstract you want to call it, this is a good ole boys club of about 50-60 major programs, a couple of old bowls, and the racket they pull with media partners to make sure they all control the product. It's textbook anti-trust material, but, what are you going to do?

Do the ends justify the means? I mean, while it may be an easy "yes" to some...couldn't this be the sort of line in the sand where someone says enough to the whole structure and sues to recoup or break up the shell game? I might wait a lifetime, and may never see the governments come back at this structure and force schools to pony up on taxes. I may expire, but the argument won't. And this brings it closer, if even a fraction of an inch on a track that spans miles.

Where you see textbook anti-trust material, I see a free market at work. I suppose if I were a fan of a G5 school or conference, I might prefer that someone intervene to give me a bigger slice of the pie than that market wants to give me.

I don't see that desire to be much different than someone insisting that actors in B-movies be given more starring roles in major motion pictures. If the public prefers watching Meryl Streep or Tom Hanks instead of Bruce Campbell, what's wrong (or unjust) about that?

Why should FBS football be like FCS football, or basketball? "Should" has nothing to do with this. There is no "should" in the entertainment business.

I think we should be careful what we wish for. An expanded playoff isn't going to help the little guys of the college football world. At the end of the day, it will mean that ESPN will pay less than they do now, and that reduction in pay is going to come out of the pockets of the little guys. They will get less money and less exposure than they do today. The gravy train is slowing down.

Its not a free market and it IS anti-trust. The networks can only buy what's offered. The P5 have the power to say "we wont participate unless we get our way". Unless you can prove that the networks don't want a larger more inclusive playoff---then you would have to conclude its not really a free market at work. Everyone knows that money was left on the table by not offering an 8 team playoff. That's not even arguable. So---since when was purposely restricting supply while deciding who can provide additional supply a part of a the definition of free markets?

That said, the problem with sports is that it really doesn't work like most other lines of business. Its the only business where you are effectively partners with your competition. So---anti-competitive/anti-trust behavior is going to look differently and be defined differently in college sports than it would be in most other areas of commerce.
(This post was last modified: 04-28-2017 11:37 AM by Attackcoog.)
04-28-2017 11:05 AM
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RE: Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
(04-28-2017 10:55 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(04-28-2017 10:21 AM)bullet Wrote:  Look at how ESPN was willing to pay $13-$15 million to the Big East football schools with Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, Rutgers, TCU, UConn, Cincinnati, South Florida and Temple. The AAC gets around $2 million.

Is that really that much better than 4 of the same schools (UConn, Cincinnati, South Florida, Temple) plus Memphis, Houston, Navy, UCF, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa and ECU?

If we are talking play on the field (football), there is not a lot of difference. There are a couple more bad teams at the bottom in the AAC but they also have 4 more members. Navy, Houston, Memphis and Temple have been pretty solid for the past few years and would have been highly competitive with WVU, Louisville and Cincinnati (the cream of the crop in the Big East from 2005-2011).

Obviously the biggest difference between the two schools is what they offer in basketball; but every keeps throwing around that basketball only accounts for about 20% of what the value of a conference media value is.

also the big east was technically a power conference in football they got a auto bid to a bcs game, i think that is another reason why the big east got a bigger pay check.
04-28-2017 11:11 AM
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Post: #17
RE: Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
(04-28-2017 10:51 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(04-28-2017 10:17 AM)bullet Wrote:  Its a classic oligopoly between ESPN/Fox and the P5. It is definitely not a totally free market.

No, other media companies have more than enough money and have some interest in college sports, they just spend their money in other ways. CBS pays obscene amounts for March Madness and also has SEC football. Turner is also invested in March Madness. NBC has Notre Dame football and bid so much for Pac-12 rights that ESPN and Fox had to be persuaded to bid jointly in order to outbid NBC.

There's nothing stopping any of those three giant media companies from paying tons of money for non-P5 college sports, except the fact that they don't want to.

Actually there is. The networks were interested in a another CFP game that featured G5 participants---they just were not interested to the tune of 40 million a year. In toher words, they were not going to pay Orange Bowl prices for G5 games---but they still had significant value if attached to the CFP package. Since they didn't meet the minimum bid that was set by the CFP Committee (which is essentially the P5), the idea of additional CFP games for the G5 was discarded. There could easily have been an additional 40 million added to the pot by creating a couple more CFP bowls that would feature G5's. It wasn't done because they feared it might somehow erode the value of other bowl games the P5 are aligned with. That's not really the free market---that's more protectionism than free market.
(This post was last modified: 04-28-2017 11:20 AM by Attackcoog.)
04-28-2017 11:17 AM
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RE: Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
It's a matter of perception based on the aspect in focus. When you look at it from a college sports perspective you are looking at a trailing aspect rather than a leading one. And the focus is too defined to see the impetus for this trailing trend.

The impetus is enrollment. It's contributing factors are the broader economy, the erosion of state sales tax bases due to that economy and deals they have cut to attract jobs, and the mechanization of the work force. There are many other contributing factors but these are among some of the most recognized.

Then factor in a birthrate among the middle class that is past peak and is waning.

State Flagship schools are dropping enrollment standards (not a lot but by increments) increasing enrollment through decreased tuition, or increased scholarships, or by the creation of zones beyond the state where out of state tuition will not be charged, and they are expanding available campus and off campus housing in preparation for what most states recognize as a necessity, cuts in higher education appropriations.

The total number of colleges and universities that we have were a direct beneficiary of the Baby Boom and the GI Bill. Single function colleges (teacher's colleges for the most part) blossomed into universities. Jr Colleges sprang up everywhere to make attending easier for applicants with either the inability to leave a smaller community for higher education or who had obligations to stay in a smaller community.

There was a retraction in this growth in between the education of returning WWII vets on the GI Bill, and the matriculation of the Boomers. There was a retraction after the Boomers and the matriculation of their children. Now we face a protracted retraction. The Boomers and their echo have passed. The echo of the Boomer's children's children (which will grow ever smaller) will have very little impact on the trends at hand. They will be less financially able to afford higher education partially because of inflation, partially because of the erosion of inheritances to end of life care and taxes, and mostly because most forms of labor (which is in abundant supply) are subject to supply and demand. Make jobs that cover the cost of a college education less available to the majority of graduates and the trend in higher education goes down, not up. So return on investment in a college education will mean fewer enroll out of fewer total applicants which means the higher education boom that was created when the GI's returned to a grateful nation pursued degrees that prior to the war would never have been pursued, and that they saw it as an obligation to their children to do the same, will no longer be the priority of a totally new generation.

The top 5% of students will still be the best paid professional class of citizens. But those who are craftsmen, or know trades, will be on the upswing. Skill sets, and more importantly the credentialing that says you have them, will become the new diploma to get a job. Those skills could be in communications, graphic arts, or plumbing. They will simply be what the current job market demands.

So with the reality of the current situation at hand States will protect their oldest institutions, combine or close their smallest ones, and redefine the missions their mid sized universities.

It's the natural human emotions over our institutions that lead to the angst. Really it is nothing more than the tide going out and taking with it the flotsam we thought was permanent because it was there for most of our lives.

Since the state focus will be on consolidation, state institutions cut with regard to state funding, and enrollment an issue, the leaders of those institutions who study trends constantly have already made the adjustments they deemed necessary to survive the present conditions.

If you need enrollment you do the things I've already mentioned they are doing including the building projects that seem to be counter productive. But they only seem that way because enrollment is trending down, not because we are considering that they are preparing for the downsizing of higher ed within their states. They are pursuing new revenue streams to make up for cuts in appropriations. FOX and ESPN see this as an opportunity to seized upon. Why? Because it gives them finally an opportunity to organize what had been the sleepy, regional, domain of the conferences. Now that the administrations of these schools are waking up to the need to cover lost funding the mega dollars of television are impossible for them to pass up. The cost is they've lost control over the form and function of their athletics and it has simply become big business and big business throws its weight around in this country.

Consolidation of branding in business lifts the brands involved. In other words place a highly sought product with another that is commonly needed and sales of both go up. The same principle applies to college sports programs. Place a brand with other brands and the demand for both goes up. This isn't a sinister plan of the P schools. It's the sinister plan of the networks and the P schools are the chosen product that has been hijacked from its rightful owners, the citizens of the states they represent.

Somehow we feel devalued when schools we attended or graduated from are demoted in the public perception, and we feel detached if they are closed. It is really an erroneous attachment as your diploma is not worth less, and it doesn't affect who you are. I only say this because more closures are coming. We are just at the beginning of this cycle.

Market forces and now technology are making many jobs obsolete and we aren't talking manual labor, we are talking white collar jobs. Many forms of management are going away. Work as we know it will be radically changed over the next few decades. And in the educated and industrialized world the birth rate proves this. The stress on the environment by overpopulation isn't coming from Europe and the United States. The mass migrations into Europe from Africa and the Middle East is a tell. Every major natural and man made catastrophe has been preceded by such migrations. Man made catastrophes are usually called war and they are almost always fought over resources.

So we will see a much tighter consolidation in Flagship schools, a broader elimination of smaller ones, and a more comprehensive change in the mission of the mid sized ones, before we see anything else. And since realignment is merely a side effect of these trends we will see more consolidation into top brands there as well. But it will be motivated by the pursuit of money and capitalized upon by the networks who will constantly looking for a smaller and better mix of schools and will be restrained only by the need to appease a larger market so eventually they will find the sweet spot in their models.

So if you blame a P school for your problems you are merely abusing a passenger on the Titanic lucky or fortunate enough to have found a lifeboat instead of directing your anger at the Captains who steered us into this iceberg, or the overall class system that had you locked below decks when lifeboats were available, and you are not seeing those schools in the P5 as victims who have nearly lost everything that endeared them to their alumni to an opportunist which places its stipulations on which cheers can be used, how the venues are to be used during games, what logos can go on the walls and where they will be placed, and what overhead they have to spend to get their venues ready for corporate connections for broadcast. It's like the Carpathia said to those in the lifeboats, give me control over your life and we'll pick you up. The ratio is about right too. 2200 went into the water and over 1500 perished. In other words a little less than 1/3rd survived the catastrophe. But the wreck that is realignment is merely the byproduct of forces that are radically altering a much much larger portion of our lives than just sports. And if that doesn't shake us and wake us, we're toast!
04-28-2017 11:17 AM
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RE: Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
(04-28-2017 10:13 AM)JHS55 Wrote:  So ken d, are you happy that college football has moved to eliminate half of FBS teams from a fighting chance for a championship
You have your own p5 championship because of espn
Remember that little school called Miami?, they had no real football success until they tried, but in today's world you seem to be happy to eliminate this fighting chance.
So my question to you ken d is, are you happy ?

I am...

Let's face it, there are A LOT of schools... UMass, Idaho, and sometimes whole conferences...that moved up to "FBS" solely for the paycheck and have NO...absolutely NO...business playing major college football. Honestly, there ought to be a cap on FBS and the proliferation on FBS teams has hurt the sport.

Now where that cap-line is drawn is the real area of debate. Right now, my favorite team is on the wrong-side of that cap-line, but I'll be honest...UC has often made poor decisions over the years that has led to them being shut-out of the "Power" football conferences. It was often said of UC that they functioned with a "MAC mindset" when it came to athletics and that, sadly, contributed to UC being relegated to the AAC. And it probably is too late to do anything to fix that.

But yes... I don't care to watch a "F_U" playing some directional Louisiana school in FB. It's great fun for "The Waterboy" but in real life, not so much.
04-28-2017 11:21 AM
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JHS55 Offline
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Post: #20
Will ESPN's problems lead to an 8 team College Football Playoff?
Jrsec, really dude, all that for what? Not even on topic at all
04-28-2017 11:24 AM
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