RE: WAC expansion open thoughts: Football edition
No football. WAC is done with that. You have the current members correct. The WAC is shifting toward a model of faith schools (Seattle, GCU, CBU, and perhaps in a few years APU) and local regional public schools (UVU, CSUB, UT-RGV) who do not play football. It's sort of a half ASUN half Big South type schools. NMSU is sticking it out until a FBS conference comes along for them, and everyone expects they will probably be in the WAC for 3-4 more years anyway. UMKC moved into the WAC because they believed that they didn't fit the rural Summit schools, and they thought their less than well funded and poor fan supported program would do better in the WAC; it's the same result. The lack of investment makes UMKC unattractive. The result is, they are probably stuck for the next five years also. We actually think they are the greatest flight risk (potentially). But the WAC has a cushion, so they can lose a school and be OK.
This allows the WAC to look for schools that fit their new model rather than grab anyone. The addition of GCU looked crazy and desperate. But it opened the way for schools like CBU and I expect APU to join. Christian shools are the only segment of private liberal arts schools that are growing - IMO because they are bargains in terms of price compared to the prestige liberal arts schools, and because parents feel more comfortable sending their kids to one dominated by Christians as opposed to one where feminist and leftist types dominate (same reason religious schools dominate the private school business for K-12). There are a couple schools with profiles that could generate D-I programs in California and the Pacific Northwest, as well as a few in Texas and Colorado (Colorado Christian). D-II move ups, will likely be most these. There are also some public regional schools in D-II that also fit the profile of schools like UT-RGV (Colorado-Colorado Springs, had metrics that looked best when I examined schools), but these are further off in the future than some of the Christian schools.
An exception to the model described is UCSD. They are waiting for a Big West invite. If they don't get it, then I expect they will give very serious consideration to the WAC, especially with the SoCal schools they are looking to add, who are UCSD's big opponents in D-II right now. They have competed against CBU (and APU) and have a relationship with CSUB, whom they were comfortable having as a partner and co-member in the Big West. They can just as easily be a co-member of the WAC with them. So if the Big West doesn't invite them, UCSD would probably come into the WAC and be a member for a decade.
All this points to a WAC that has options going forward, even if they are D-II move ups, who will be longer term members. This means the WAC doesn't have to do crazy @$$ $h!t just to have enough members. They don't have to pursue football. And the current membership, excepting NMSU, do not have football or want it.
All the other stuff about the P5 not giving extra money, and the G5 not willing to distribute any G5 allocated money to a new conference are true. The WAC would be cut off from Playoff distributions, and schools would get the same payments as Independents like UMass and NMSU barely $100K more than staying in FCS). Every school knows that it's unlikely there would ever be money. So in effect WAC football at FBS level is dead.
(This post was last modified: 04-06-2017 06:42 PM by Stugray2.)
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