(04-04-2017 09:57 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Col. Kurtz ... the guy that went batsh*t insane in "Apocalypse Now"... but he somehow survived 'Nam and now he's pitching realignment scenarios! awesome

Fun fact - Kurtz was originally an ivory trader in the book "Heart of Darkness". Intended to showcase the Congo Free State, King Leopold of Belgium and all of the evils done in this time period.

Would the Big 12 vote for expansion to keep Houston from going to the PAC-12?

The PAC would need to add 4 in the CTZ to be worthwhile

But they're not going to touch ANYONE (not even OU) until and unless they know for sure that UT is permanently off the table for them

(04-05-2017 02:25 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  The PAC would need to add 4 in the CTZ to be worthwhile

But they're not going to touch ANYONE (not even OU) until and unless they know for sure that UT is permanently off the table for them

I think that's an accurate assessment.

Houston does NOT fit the profile of a Pac-12 school. Rice more or less does but the only way they move is if Texas takes them as a package deal. Other than Rice and A&M, there's no other Texas school that fits the profile the Pac-12 looks in candidates.

If seven years ago you substitute Rice for Baylor, there would be a Pac-16 even if A&M went to the SEC.

(04-05-2017 03:42 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  Houston does NOT fit the profile of a Pac-12 school. Rice more or less does but the only way they move is if Texas takes them as a package deal. Other than Rice and A&M, there's no other Texas school that fits the profile the Pac-12 looks in candidates.

If seven years ago you substitute Rice for Baylor, there would be a Pac-16 even if A&M went to the SEC.

Louisville didnt fit the profile for the ACC and got the call, even though UConn fit what was thought to be the profile.

(04-05-2017 03:42 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  Houston does NOT fit the profile of a Pac-12 school. Rice more or less does but the only way they move is if Texas takes them as a package deal. Other than Rice and A&M, there's no other Texas school that fits the profile the Pac-12 looks in candidates.

If seven years ago you substitute Rice for Baylor, there would be a Pac-16 even if A&M went to the SEC.

That's a little unfair. Houston is actually fairly similar to Pac-12 members in a number of ways. Houston is a large enrollment public, in a large city, with a diverse enrollment, and a tier one research classification by Carnegie. That's similar to a number of P12 schools. That said, Houston is not AAU (but neither are several existing P12 members) and is probably a step behind most of the Pac12 academically. While a step behind, UH is not as far off academically as you might think.

What Houston does do that Rice cant is provide a relatively large fan base for a G5, modern P5 like facilities, a wining reputation, and strong TV ratings in the city---all things Rice, with its tiny student body, will likely never be able to do--P5 or not. One thing most don't know, Houston TV ratings actually do surprising well in other major Texas cities like Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio.

Like 10th Mountain said, we aren't a Pac12 first choice---Thats UT and whoever they want. But if UT says no---Houston is probably a completely viable option to help anchor any P12 attempt to gain a presence in Texas.

(04-05-2017 01:22 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(04-04-2017 09:57 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Col. Kurtz ... the guy that went batsh*t insane in "Apocalypse Now"... but he somehow survived 'Nam and now he's pitching realignment scenarios! awesome

Fun fact - Kurtz was originally an ivory trader in the book "Heart of Darkness". Intended to showcase the Congo Free State, King Leopold of Belgium and all of the evils done in this time period.

Yep. That is exactly correct. Good summary. Most people don't know that.

"Terminate the mission."
"Terminate Kurtz, Sir?"
"Terminate with extreme prejudice."

(04-05-2017 06:18 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 01:22 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(04-04-2017 09:57 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Col. Kurtz ... the guy that went batsh*t insane in "Apocalypse Now"... but he somehow survived 'Nam and now he's pitching realignment scenarios! awesome

Fun fact - Kurtz was originally an ivory trader in the book "Heart of Darkness". Intended to showcase the Congo Free State, King Leopold of Belgium and all of the evils done in this time period.

Yep. That is exactly correct. Good summary. Most people don't know that.

"Terminate the mission."
"Terminate Kurtz, Sir?"
"Terminate with extreme prejudice."

The horror. The horror... of PAC12 network performance may compel the pac to expand before the B12 contract ends. They could go to 14 and still have room for Texas/OU, just like the ACC is at 14 and saving a spot - hopeless or not - for ND.

(04-05-2017 06:18 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 01:22 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(04-04-2017 09:57 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Col. Kurtz ... the guy that went batsh*t insane in "Apocalypse Now"... but he somehow survived 'Nam and now he's pitching realignment scenarios! awesome

Fun fact - Kurtz was originally an ivory trader in the book "Heart of Darkness". Intended to showcase the Congo Free State, King Leopold of Belgium and all of the evils done in this time period.

Yep. That is exactly correct. Good summary. Most people don't know that.

"Terminate the mission."
"Terminate Kurtz, Sir?"
"Terminate with extreme prejudice."

IMHO, one of the best books ever written. It's a quick read, and you can even get it bundled with "The Secret Sharer".

(04-05-2017 05:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 03:42 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  Houston does NOT fit the profile of a Pac-12 school. Rice more or less does but the only way they move is if Texas takes them as a package deal. Other than Rice and A&M, there's no other Texas school that fits the profile the Pac-12 looks in candidates.

If seven years ago you substitute Rice for Baylor, there would be a Pac-16 even if A&M went to the SEC.

That's a little unfair. Houston is actually fairly similar to Pac-12 members in a number of ways. Houston is a large enrollment public, in a large city, with a diverse enrollment, and a tier one research classification by Carnegie. That's similar to a number of P12 schools. That said, Houston is not AAU (but neither are several existing P12 members) and is probably a step behind most of the Pac12 academically. While a step behind, UH is not as far off academically as you might think.

What Houston does do that Rice cant is provide a relatively large fan base for a G5, modern P5 like facilities, a wining reputation, and strong TV ratings in the city---all things Rice, with its tiny student body, will likely never be able to do--P5 or not. One thing most don't know, Houston TV ratings actually do surprising well in other major Texas cities like Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio.

Like 10th Mountain said, we aren't a Pac12 first choice---Thats UT and whoever they want. But if UT says no---Houston is probably a completely viable option to help anchor any P12 attempt to gain a presence in Texas.

Houston does not fit the P12. First and foremost it is made up of top 10% research schools, 9 of them top 6% in the top 50 schools nationally, budgets over $420m (even WSU and OSU have budgets above $250m, and that is the bottom). Houston is only $150m.

The P12 is dominated by the UC chancellors and UW's chancellor, as well as the presidents of Stanford and USC. Larry Scott said it was like pulling teeth to get them to approve Utah and Colorado, two schools whose combined research is nearly $1B annually. The P12 leaders care about academic prestige above all else, and that means research. Like the B1G, research grants are almost 8:1 over athletics revenue. The B12 and SEC it's closer to 2:1. That makes a huge difference in selection criteria. Basically only 7 D-I football schools west of the Mississippi are top 10% and not in the SEC or B1G. Texas, Kansas, Iowa State, Colorado State, Hawai'i, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. Add to that Rice as an AAU school, and you have the entire list of schools that if their athletics are good enough might get P12 consideration.

Houston would be at the very bottom of the P12 in terms of academics and research. If you follow the rule that a new school need to be at least above the bottom quarter, then Houston is about $100m short in research to even be considered (they do about $150m which is pretty solid; just not P12 level, where even Washington State and Oregon State are $250m level).

It's very clear the P12 wont settle for less than their standards. Which basically means Texas or Oklahoma for athletics, and one of Kansas or Iowa State if you need a 2nd school (Kansas much preferred). If Rice had athletics competence they would get in over Houston. Not even a contest. The Athletic Departments don't run the show anymore, because the sums of money involved are now way too much to be a side effort. That means the Presidents decide. And for the P12 it means who would the Chancellors of Berkeley, UCLA, Washington, and the Presidents of Stanford and USC want at their table.

Actually, that's an interesting proposal...

It would definitely put the Pac 12 right inside the SEC and Big XII footprint.

But nah..

Here's why

Take UH and you'll never get UT. Not that UH would block, but UT would never jump and the PAC really wants UT.

(04-05-2017 07:56 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 05:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 03:42 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  Houston does NOT fit the profile of a Pac-12 school. Rice more or less does but the only way they move is if Texas takes them as a package deal. Other than Rice and A&M, there's no other Texas school that fits the profile the Pac-12 looks in candidates.

If seven years ago you substitute Rice for Baylor, there would be a Pac-16 even if A&M went to the SEC.

That's a little unfair. Houston is actually fairly similar to Pac-12 members in a number of ways. Houston is a large enrollment public, in a large city, with a diverse enrollment, and a tier one research classification by Carnegie. That's similar to a number of P12 schools. That said, Houston is not AAU (but neither are several existing P12 members) and is probably a step behind most of the Pac12 academically. While a step behind, UH is not as far off academically as you might think.

What Houston does do that Rice cant is provide a relatively large fan base for a G5, modern P5 like facilities, a wining reputation, and strong TV ratings in the city---all things Rice, with its tiny student body, will likely never be able to do--P5 or not. One thing most don't know, Houston TV ratings actually do surprising well in other major Texas cities like Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio.

Like 10th Mountain said, we aren't a Pac12 first choice---Thats UT and whoever they want. But if UT says no---Houston is probably a completely viable option to help anchor any P12 attempt to gain a presence in Texas.

Houston does not fit the P12. First and foremost it is made up of top 10% research schools, 9 of them top 6% in the top 50 schools nationally, budgets over $420m (even WSU and OSU have budgets above $250m, and that is the bottom). Houston is only $150m.

The P12 is dominated by the UC chancellors and UW's chancellor, as well as the presidents of Stanford and USC. Larry Scott said it was like pulling teeth to get them to approve Utah and Colorado, two schools whose combined research is nearly $1B annually. The P12 leaders care about academic prestige above all else, and that means research. Like the B1G, research grants are almost 8:1 over athletics revenue. The B12 and SEC it's closer to 2:1. That makes a huge difference in selection criteria. Basically only 7 D-I football schools west of the Mississippi are top 10% and not in the SEC or B1G. Texas, Kansas, Iowa State, Colorado State, Hawai'i, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. Add to that Rice as an AAU school, and you have the entire list of schools that if their athletics are good enough might get P12 consideration.

Houston would be at the very bottom of the P12 in terms of academics and research. If you follow the rule that a new school need to be at least above the bottom quarter, then Houston is about $100m short in research to even be considered (they do about $150m which is pretty solid; just not P12 level, where even Washington State and Oregon State are $250m level).

It's very clear the P12 wont settle for less than their standards. Which basically means Texas or Oklahoma for athletics, and one of Kansas or Iowa State if you need a 2nd school (Kansas much preferred). If Rice had athletics competence they would get in over Houston. Not even a contest. The Athletic Departments don't run the show anymore, because the sums of money involved are now way too much to be a side effort. That means the Presidents decide. And for the P12 it means who would the Chancellors of Berkeley, UCLA, Washington, and the Presidents of Stanford and USC want at their table.

Houston is trending in the right direction academically. Any moves are nearly a decade away--so Houston has time to improve and get closer to Pac12 levels. I'd also add that the Pac12 doesnt have single tiny private school. Not one. Stanford is closest to Rice, but it has over 15K students--which is similar to many mid-sized public schools. USC has over 40K students--which is fairly large even among publics (and flat out huge for private). Frankly, if say UT and Oklahoma bolt to someplace like the SEC or Big10---I could see the Pac12 take Houston and Texas Tech---two schools that are similar in research, size, and academics. Both would currently fall short of P12 standards, but both are heading in the right direction and might be getting pretty close by 2024.

(04-05-2017 05:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 03:42 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  Houston does NOT fit the profile of a Pac-12 school. Rice more or less does but the only way they move is if Texas takes them as a package deal. Other than Rice and A&M, there's no other Texas school that fits the profile the Pac-12 looks in candidates.

If seven years ago you substitute Rice for Baylor, there would be a Pac-16 even if A&M went to the SEC.

That's a little unfair. Houston is actually fairly similar to Pac-12 members in a number of ways. Houston is a large enrollment public, in a large city, with a diverse enrollment, and a tier one research classification by Carnegie. That's similar to a number of P12 schools. That said, Houston is not AAU (but neither are several existing P12 members) and is probably a step behind most of the Pac12 academically. While a step behind, UH is not as far off academically as you might think.

What Houston does do that Rice cant is provide a relatively large fan base for a G5, modern P5 like facilities, a wining reputation, and strong TV ratings in the city---all things Rice, with its tiny student body, will likely never be able to do--P5 or not. One thing most don't know, Houston TV ratings actually do surprising well in other major Texas cities like Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio.

Like 10th Mountain said, we aren't a Pac12 first choice---Thats UT and whoever they want. But if UT says no---Houston is probably a completely viable option to help anchor any P12 attempt to gain a presence in Texas.

I highly doubt Houston has any chance of getting a spot in the PAC. Academically and financially, Rice has much more to offer the PAC. No they don't have the new stadium, but Rice Stadium is historic and they certainly have the money to renovate and expand it, if it was necessary. Plus, Rice would certainly attract additional casual sports fans, if they were to move to the PAC.

Honestly, I can't see a reason why the PAC would look to add two universities in the same city. It just doesn't make sense. In my opinion, if the PAC wanted to be in Houston, Rice would be the logical choice. But, none of it really matters. I doubt the PAC is looking to expand with any Texas program not named UT.

(04-05-2017 09:18 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 05:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 03:42 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  Houston does NOT fit the profile of a Pac-12 school. Rice more or less does but the only way they move is if Texas takes them as a package deal. Other than Rice and A&M, there's no other Texas school that fits the profile the Pac-12 looks in candidates.

If seven years ago you substitute Rice for Baylor, there would be a Pac-16 even if A&M went to the SEC.

That's a little unfair. Houston is actually fairly similar to Pac-12 members in a number of ways. Houston is a large enrollment public, in a large city, with a diverse enrollment, and a tier one research classification by Carnegie. That's similar to a number of P12 schools. That said, Houston is not AAU (but neither are several existing P12 members) and is probably a step behind most of the Pac12 academically. While a step behind, UH is not as far off academically as you might think.

What Houston does do that Rice cant is provide a relatively large fan base for a G5, modern P5 like facilities, a wining reputation, and strong TV ratings in the city---all things Rice, with its tiny student body, will likely never be able to do--P5 or not. One thing most don't know, Houston TV ratings actually do surprising well in other major Texas cities like Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio.

Like 10th Mountain said, we aren't a Pac12 first choice---Thats UT and whoever they want. But if UT says no---Houston is probably a completely viable option to help anchor any P12 attempt to gain a presence in Texas.

I highly doubt Houston has any chance of getting a spot in the PAC. Academically and financially, Rice has much more to offer the PAC. No they don't have the new stadium, but Rice Stadium is historic and they certainly have the money to renovate and expand it, if it was necessary. Plus, Rice would certainly attract additional casual sports fans, if they were to move to the PAC.

Honestly, I can't see a reason why the PAC would look to add two universities in the same city. It just doesn't make sense. In my opinion, if the PAC wanted to be in Houston, Rice would be the logical choice. But, none of it really matters. I doubt the PAC is looking to expand with any Texas program not named UT.

Rice is too small for P5. At best, they'd be a Wake Forest...

(04-05-2017 04:19 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 03:42 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  Houston does NOT fit the profile of a Pac-12 school. Rice more or less does but the only way they move is if Texas takes them as a package deal. Other than Rice and A&M, there's no other Texas school that fits the profile the Pac-12 looks in candidates.

If seven years ago you substitute Rice for Baylor, there would be a Pac-16 even if A&M went to the SEC.

Louisville didnt fit the profile for the ACC and got the call, even though UConn fit what was thought to be the profile.

You can't compare Louisville to Houston. First of all, the ACC needed to replace Maryland and second, choosing a basketball first school like UConn was not going to cut it with Florida State and Clemson. The ACC looked the other way around on Louisville's academics because its own existence as a P5 league was in play since its two most important football schools were at risk of leaving to the Big XII. The Pac-12 is not in that situation so they can be selective on who they want to associate with. Houston is a great school but they just don't fit the Pac-12 profile of flagship/land grant institution and/or rich private school with elite academics. Texas, Texas A&M and Rice are the only schools in Texas that fit that profile. A&M is happy in the SEC so that leaves only UT and Rice as the only real possibilities but even then Rice has a long way to go. Texas Tech's only choice is if they go as a Texoma package deal but that's it.

(04-05-2017 05:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 03:42 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  Houston does NOT fit the profile of a Pac-12 school. Rice more or less does but the only way they move is if Texas takes them as a package deal. Other than Rice and A&M, there's no other Texas school that fits the profile the Pac-12 looks in candidates.

If seven years ago you substitute Rice for Baylor, there would be a Pac-16 even if A&M went to the SEC.

That's a little unfair. Houston is actually fairly similar to Pac-12 members in a number of ways. Houston is a large enrollment public, in a large city, with a diverse enrollment, and a tier one research classification by Carnegie. That's similar to a number of P12 schools. That said, Houston is not AAU (but neither are several existing P12 members) and is probably a step behind most of the Pac12 academically. While a step behind, UH is not as far off academically as you might think.

What Houston does do that Rice cant is provide a relatively large fan base for a G5, modern P5 like facilities, a wining reputation, and strong TV ratings in the city---all things Rice, with its tiny student body, will likely never be able to do--P5 or not. One thing most don't know, Houston TV ratings actually do surprising well in other major Texas cities like Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio.

Like 10th Mountain said, we aren't a Pac12 first choice---Thats UT and whoever they want. But if UT says no---Houston is probably a completely viable option to help anchor any P12 attempt to gain a presence in Texas.

I'm not disagreeing with your post but reality says otherwise. Until recently, I thought Houston's chance for a P5 invite was in the ACC. But they just structured their tv deal until the mid 2030s so they might not expand until then. Or they might if they struggle with their tv network and need new markets to expand. That's where I could see Houston, Cincinnati and UConn in play (but one or two might get the call but not the three) and the ACC can compromise on Houston's academics like they did with Louisville. Your chances are better with the ACC than with the Pac-12.

I'd say that Houston has a 0% chance at getting into the PAC in the next decade...BUT, I never thought Louisville would get an ACC invite either. So there's a chance. Houston has finally gotten up to R1 status which is huge. If people could see the difference between Houston 15 years ago and now...It's pretty impressive how much the school has improved.

Louisville ranks slightly ahead of Houston

University of Louisville (rank = 107, percentile = 12, R&D = $179,499,000)
University of Houston (rank = 123, percentile = 14, R&D = $150,628,000)

Last two P12 adds, to give you an idea of the threshold (7th and 9th in the P12)

University of Utah, The (rank = 40, percentile = 5, R&D = $518,928,000)
University of Colorado Boulder (rank = 53, percentile = 6, R&D = $420,775,000)

(04-06-2017 08:39 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Louisville ranks slightly ahead of Houston

University of Louisville (rank = 107, percentile = 12, R&D = $179,499,000)
University of Houston (rank = 123, percentile = 14, R&D = $150,628,000)

Last two P12 adds, to give you an idea of the threshold (7th and 9th in the P12)

University of Utah, The (rank = 40, percentile = 5, R&D = $518,928,000)
University of Colorado Boulder (rank = 53, percentile = 6, R&D = $420,775,000)

Interesting. But that kind of makes my point. Utah and Colorado do 3 times the research of Louisville and Houston. I bet Hawaii, Colorado St and New Mexico (the other 3 west of Mississippi R1's) do 3 times the research as Louisville and Houston. Louisiville got into a great academic conference DESPITE those low numbers. That's why I was saying Houston has a little hope. The Louisville hope.