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stever20 Online
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Post: #1341
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Kershaw and Keuchel have very similar stats for the series.
10-30-2017 02:07 AM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #1342
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(10-30-2017 01:41 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  Uhh, yeah, he shut down the Astros in Game 1. The Astros were at home and their bats were very much awake tonight/last night. Kershaw is fine. He's not perfect but he's to be respected. He did much better than Keuchal. Keuchal has been disappointing in his last three starts, including tonight/last night.

This isn't some whacky theory. He ruptured a disk in his back last year. You can't repair that like some injuries - you have to manage it. Look at his stats this year, game by game. His highs are still very high but his lows are lower and more frequent. The lack of depth in his slider has been discussed all year, including during the playoffs. Look at stever's post again. The best pitcher of his generation, at 29 years old, sets the MLB record for playoff HRs allowed? He's obviously not fine.
(This post was last modified: 10-30-2017 08:41 AM by Brookes Owl.)
10-30-2017 08:40 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #1343
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
and you can see he's clearly not the same guy after the injury THIS year....

pre dl stint- he had given up 18 hr in 141.1 ip. But still a 2.04 ERA and a 24/168 bb/k ratio
post dl stint- he's given up 13 hr in 62.2 ip. A 3.88 ERA and a 14/63 bb/k ratio(extrapolate that to 141.1 ip and it's 32/142) And extrapolate the hr to 141.1 ip and it's a whopping 29 hr.

and what's bad about it now is that it's not a real small sample size for the post DL stint. It's 11 starts.

What's so strange about the homers is before this year- he didn't give up many. Before this year he had never given up 1 hr/9 ip. Taking out his 1st year in 2008- he had never given up more than .6 hr/9. The 13 hr in the post dl stint- would be #4 in his career(and 1 of those years was this year).
10-30-2017 09:04 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #1344
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
oh and the other scary stat for Kershaw. last night now the 10th straight game giving up at least 1 homer. Esp given he gave up 8 homers all of last year.
10-30-2017 11:24 AM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #1345
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Two comments about Sunday's game from guys who hit a lot of home runs:

Quote:Reggie Jackson
@mroctober

Is this a good game or just bad pitching in a ballpark as big as a hotel lobby ?

10:08 PM - 29 Oct 2017

Quote:Jose Canseco‏
@JoseCanseco

The balls in my pants have less juice in them then the balls in this game

10:10 PM - 29 Oct 2017
10-30-2017 04:45 PM
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Love and Honor Offline
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Post: #1346
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(10-30-2017 04:45 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Two comments about Sunday's game from guys who hit a lot of home runs:

Quote:Reggie Jackson
@mroctober

Is this a good game or just bad pitching in a ballpark as big as a hotel lobby ?

10:08 PM - 29 Oct 2017

Quote:Jose Canseco‏
@JoseCanseco

The balls in my pants have less juice in them then the balls in this game

10:10 PM - 29 Oct 2017

The weird ball theory may have some legitimacy to it, but IIRC the park effect at Enron Fie...I mean Minute Maid Park is usually middle-of-the-pack since the deep power alleys and dead center cancel out the short lines. Of course they took the hill out and shortened the fence there as well, that probably helped hitters a bit.
10-30-2017 05:09 PM
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Post: #1347
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
thing to watch tonight is how many outs the starters can get 1st 2 times thru the lineup. Because they've turned into pumpkins right after that...

LA's pitchers have seen guys 3rd time 9 times this series. in those times- they are 2-7 with a homer and 2 walks. 3/4 guys scored.
Hou's pitchers have seen guys 3rd time 17 times this series. In those times they are 5-14 with 2 hr and 3 walks. 7/8 guys scored.

For LA it's really tough. They have lefty starters for the most part- and the top 5 guys in the Houston lineup are righty. So you have a tired starter with platoon disadvantage. Not a good combo.
10-31-2017 08:44 AM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #1348
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(10-31-2017 08:44 AM)stever20 Wrote:  thing to watch tonight is how many outs the starters can get 1st 2 times thru the lineup. Because they've turned into pumpkins right after that...

LA's pitchers have seen guys 3rd time 9 times this series. in those times- they are 2-7 with a homer and 2 walks. 3/4 guys scored.
Hou's pitchers have seen guys 3rd time 17 times this series. In those times they are 5-14 with 2 hr and 3 walks. 7/8 guys scored.

For LA it's really tough. They have lefty starters for the most part- and the top 5 guys in the Houston lineup are righty. So you have a tired starter with platoon disadvantage. Not a good combo.

It's not the starters who are tired. Hill threw 60 pitches in his first start. Darvish threw 49.

The edge for the Astros in this series might just be that Verlander gets to pitch twice in Dodger Stadium, the only park in this series in which the pitchers have a fighting chance. It pretty much didn't matter who was pitching in Houston.
10-31-2017 09:36 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #1349
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(10-31-2017 09:36 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(10-31-2017 08:44 AM)stever20 Wrote:  thing to watch tonight is how many outs the starters can get 1st 2 times thru the lineup. Because they've turned into pumpkins right after that...

LA's pitchers have seen guys 3rd time 9 times this series. in those times- they are 2-7 with a homer and 2 walks. 3/4 guys scored.
Hou's pitchers have seen guys 3rd time 17 times this series. In those times they are 5-14 with 2 hr and 3 walks. 7/8 guys scored.

For LA it's really tough. They have lefty starters for the most part- and the top 5 guys in the Houston lineup are righty. So you have a tired starter with platoon disadvantage. Not a good combo.

It's not the starters who are tired. Hill threw 60 pitches in his first start. Darvish threw 49.

The edge for the Astros in this series might just be that Verlander gets to pitch twice in Dodger Stadium, the only park in this series in which the pitchers have a fighting chance. It pretty much didn't matter who was pitching in Houston.
And the thing is, tonight should be even better than last time, as it'll only be like 70 degrees instead of 95 for game 1. So the ball shouldn't carry as much as it did 1st 2 games.....
10-31-2017 10:13 AM
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Post: #1350
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(10-31-2017 09:36 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(10-31-2017 08:44 AM)stever20 Wrote:  thing to watch tonight is how many outs the starters can get 1st 2 times thru the lineup. Because they've turned into pumpkins right after that...

LA's pitchers have seen guys 3rd time 9 times this series. in those times- they are 2-7 with a homer and 2 walks. 3/4 guys scored.
Hou's pitchers have seen guys 3rd time 17 times this series. In those times they are 5-14 with 2 hr and 3 walks. 7/8 guys scored.

For LA it's really tough. They have lefty starters for the most part- and the top 5 guys in the Houston lineup are righty. So you have a tired starter with platoon disadvantage. Not a good combo.

It's not the starters who are tired. Hill threw 60 pitches in his first start. Darvish threw 49.

The edge for the Astros in this series might just be that Verlander gets to pitch twice in Dodger Stadium, the only park in this series in which the pitchers have a fighting chance. It pretty much didn't matter who was pitching in Houston.

Houston is not quite Coors Field. It skews toward hitters more now that the hill was removed and fence brought in but it is an average park at worst. The short porch is not always a factor.
10-31-2017 01:03 PM
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Post: #1351
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(10-30-2017 08:40 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(10-30-2017 01:41 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  Uhh, yeah, he shut down the Astros in Game 1. The Astros were at home and their bats were very much awake tonight/last night. Kershaw is fine. He's not perfect but he's to be respected. He did much better than Keuchal. Keuchal has been disappointing in his last three starts, including tonight/last night.

This isn't some whacky theory. He ruptured a disk in his back last year. You can't repair that like some injuries - you have to manage it. Look at his stats this year, game by game. His highs are still very high but his lows are lower and more frequent. The lack of depth in his slider has been discussed all year, including during the playoffs. Look at stever's post again. The best pitcher of his generation, at 29 years old, sets the MLB record for playoff HRs allowed? He's obviously not fine.

My point is he's still a great pitcher.
10-31-2017 01:04 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #1352
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(10-31-2017 01:04 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  
(10-30-2017 08:40 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(10-30-2017 01:41 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  Uhh, yeah, he shut down the Astros in Game 1. The Astros were at home and their bats were very much awake tonight/last night. Kershaw is fine. He's not perfect but he's to be respected. He did much better than Keuchal. Keuchal has been disappointing in his last three starts, including tonight/last night.

This isn't some whacky theory. He ruptured a disk in his back last year. You can't repair that like some injuries - you have to manage it. Look at his stats this year, game by game. His highs are still very high but his lows are lower and more frequent. The lack of depth in his slider has been discussed all year, including during the playoffs. Look at stever's post again. The best pitcher of his generation, at 29 years old, sets the MLB record for playoff HRs allowed? He's obviously not fine.

My point is he's still a great pitcher.

And nothing I wrote is in disagreement with that, but you can't simply say "he's fine - Astros are just a great offense" without acknowledging the obvious changes in his performance and their likely cause.
10-31-2017 01:33 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #1353
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
I know my fan-dom gets in the way here but I think baseball would be well served by a 7th game. What a series. Tonight you've got Hill and Verlander on full rest and pretty much everything after that (later innings tonight and possible game 7) is going to be pitched by someone who is fatigued and/or underperforming. Last men standing.
10-31-2017 01:39 PM
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Post: #1354
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(10-31-2017 01:04 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  
(10-30-2017 08:40 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(10-30-2017 01:41 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  Uhh, yeah, he shut down the Astros in Game 1. The Astros were at home and their bats were very much awake tonight/last night. Kershaw is fine. He's not perfect but he's to be respected. He did much better than Keuchal. Keuchal has been disappointing in his last three starts, including tonight/last night.

This isn't some whacky theory. He ruptured a disk in his back last year. You can't repair that like some injuries - you have to manage it. Look at his stats this year, game by game. His highs are still very high but his lows are lower and more frequent. The lack of depth in his slider has been discussed all year, including during the playoffs. Look at stever's post again. The best pitcher of his generation, at 29 years old, sets the MLB record for playoff HRs allowed? He's obviously not fine.

My point is he's still a great pitcher.

but given the numbers he's put up since he returned from the DL- he's not pitching like a great pitcher. He's given up homers in 10 straight games. ERA up from 2.04 to 3.88. HR per 141.1 IP(which is what he threw before going on DL) up from 18 to 29. K's per 141.1 IP down from 168 to 142.
10-31-2017 01:56 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #1355
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Yeah, I think it's a matter of perspective. He's still capable of great performances, I think, but the consistency just isn't there.
10-31-2017 01:58 PM
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Post: #1356
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(10-31-2017 01:58 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Yeah, I think it's a matter of perspective. He's still capable of great performances, I think, but the consistency just isn't there.

yeah.

to put the 3.88 in perspective...

3.88 ERA regular season would have been #27. Just behind Michael Fulmer and Yu Darvish and just ahead of Jhoulys Chacin and Zach Davies....
10-31-2017 02:14 PM
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Post: #1357
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Who will Roberts use if Hill is knocked out after 3? No way he can go to Maeda or Morrow. And it seems unlikely Jansen will be able to go multiple innings. Tonight might give us a McCarthy appearance
10-31-2017 02:24 PM
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Post: #1358
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Maybe. I know Dave Cameron floated the idea of using Yu Darvish tonight.
10-31-2017 02:30 PM
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Post: #1359
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
1 thing- we may see more pitchers than we think- remember it's an NL game. Makes the tandem start idea that much tougher.
10-31-2017 02:35 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #1360
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(10-31-2017 02:24 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Who will Roberts use if Hill is knocked out after 3? No way he can go to Maeda or Morrow. And it seems unlikely Jansen will be able to go multiple innings. Tonight might give us a McCarthy appearance

I'd guess Stripling, but McCarthy could happen.
10-31-2017 04:14 PM
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