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flyingswoosh Online
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Post: #61
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-29-2017 02:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so Familia gets a 15 game suspension to start the season for the Mets in that domestic violence case.

Kind of interesting in that it's at a relatively speaking easy period of the schedule. 3 Braves, 3 Marlins, 3 @ Phils, 4 @ Marlins, and then 2 more with Philly. He'd have only 1 game back before a 3 game with the Nats. So 2 things. 1st off, if there's any rainouts, he could miss the Nats series or at least 1-2 games of it. But 2nd off, they might lose a game or 2 in the 15 games he is out that they wouldn't necessarily count on.

My concern here is that none of these DV cases ever seem to go to court. I mean, we shouldn't rely on MLB to punish Familia, Reyes or Chapman and especially not prematurely. I'm not saying they don't deserve punishment, but rather that punishment should first and foremost come from the court system and then the person's employer
(This post was last modified: 03-29-2017 02:41 PM by flyingswoosh.)
03-29-2017 02:37 PM
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Post: #62
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-29-2017 01:49 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 12:53 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 08:57 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-28-2017 11:28 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think the big question for me will be can Bryce Harper keep up what he's done this spring. In 53 ab's he's got 8 homers. Consider in his prior 243 ab's in spring training over 6 seasons- he had all of 10 homers- never more than 3 in 1 spring. If Harper is back to 2015 Harper, Nats are a real dangerous team. His current projections of .286 30 homers 91 RBI seems to be very much pessimistic.

Chris Marrero (who probably won't even make our roster) also has 8 spring training HR. I'm not saying I don't believe in Harper, but I'm so skeptical of spring training stats. I think that projection is mostly fair. I mean how many HR would you project? I think 40 is a bit bullish for a projection

I think 99% of the time spring training stats are meaningless. But 1% of the time it does translate. When a great player has a spring like what Harper has had- it can be a real sign of a possible huge season....

why I think the 30 hr projection is unreasonable is that is his average per 162 games right now for his career. I think if he stays healthy 35-40 is much more of a realistic projection- and even there I might lean towards the over.

i think 35 is fair, but I wouldn't predict more than that. I mean the last 3 seasons were 24, 42 and 13. I don't think there's much of a pattern in that. In short, i wouldn't be surprised with anything between 30-40. I mean, his career ISOs are:
2012: .206
2013: .212
2014: .151
2015: .319
2016: .198

So basically you're predicting another .300+ season. I could certainly see it happening, but it's definitely bullish

I look at it this way: Harper is a young, emotional player. Athletes like that thrive on confidence and hitting well in the spring builds confidence. If I was a Nats fan I'd be optimistic.
03-29-2017 04:56 PM
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Post: #63
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-29-2017 02:37 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 02:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so Familia gets a 15 game suspension to start the season for the Mets in that domestic violence case.

Kind of interesting in that it's at a relatively speaking easy period of the schedule. 3 Braves, 3 Marlins, 3 @ Phils, 4 @ Marlins, and then 2 more with Philly. He'd have only 1 game back before a 3 game with the Nats. So 2 things. 1st off, if there's any rainouts, he could miss the Nats series or at least 1-2 games of it. But 2nd off, they might lose a game or 2 in the 15 games he is out that they wouldn't necessarily count on.

My concern here is that none of these DV cases ever seem to go to court. I mean, we shouldn't rely on MLB to punish Familia, Reyes or Chapman and especially not prematurely. I'm not saying they don't deserve punishment, but rather that punishment should first and foremost come from the court system and then the person's employer

Problem is that burden of proof is so different. Something less than reasonable doubt doesn't mean a punishable act didnt occur.
03-29-2017 05:01 PM
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flyingswoosh Online
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Post: #64
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-29-2017 05:01 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 02:37 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 02:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so Familia gets a 15 game suspension to start the season for the Mets in that domestic violence case.

Kind of interesting in that it's at a relatively speaking easy period of the schedule. 3 Braves, 3 Marlins, 3 @ Phils, 4 @ Marlins, and then 2 more with Philly. He'd have only 1 game back before a 3 game with the Nats. So 2 things. 1st off, if there's any rainouts, he could miss the Nats series or at least 1-2 games of it. But 2nd off, they might lose a game or 2 in the 15 games he is out that they wouldn't necessarily count on.

My concern here is that none of these DV cases ever seem to go to court. I mean, we shouldn't rely on MLB to punish Familia, Reyes or Chapman and especially not prematurely. I'm not saying they don't deserve punishment, but rather that punishment should first and foremost come from the court system and then the person's employer

Problem is that burden of proof is so different. Something less than reasonable doubt doesn't mean a punishable act didnt occur.

That's true, but unfortunately it's for the court system to fix this, not MLB
03-30-2017 09:18 AM
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Post: #65
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-29-2017 04:56 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 01:49 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 12:53 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 08:57 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-28-2017 11:28 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think the big question for me will be can Bryce Harper keep up what he's done this spring. In 53 ab's he's got 8 homers. Consider in his prior 243 ab's in spring training over 6 seasons- he had all of 10 homers- never more than 3 in 1 spring. If Harper is back to 2015 Harper, Nats are a real dangerous team. His current projections of .286 30 homers 91 RBI seems to be very much pessimistic.

Chris Marrero (who probably won't even make our roster) also has 8 spring training HR. I'm not saying I don't believe in Harper, but I'm so skeptical of spring training stats. I think that projection is mostly fair. I mean how many HR would you project? I think 40 is a bit bullish for a projection

I think 99% of the time spring training stats are meaningless. But 1% of the time it does translate. When a great player has a spring like what Harper has had- it can be a real sign of a possible huge season....

why I think the 30 hr projection is unreasonable is that is his average per 162 games right now for his career. I think if he stays healthy 35-40 is much more of a realistic projection- and even there I might lean towards the over.

i think 35 is fair, but I wouldn't predict more than that. I mean the last 3 seasons were 24, 42 and 13. I don't think there's much of a pattern in that. In short, i wouldn't be surprised with anything between 30-40. I mean, his career ISOs are:
2012: .206
2013: .212
2014: .151
2015: .319
2016: .198

So basically you're predicting another .300+ season. I could certainly see it happening, but it's definitely bullish

I look at it this way: Harper is a young, emotional player. Athletes like that thrive on confidence and hitting well in the spring builds confidence. If I was a Nats fan I'd be optimistic.

Seriously? You don't think this is a bit of a stretch?
03-30-2017 09:19 AM
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flyingswoosh Online
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Post: #66
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Nats going with Treinen as the closer. 4+ BB per 9 each of the last 2 seasons. Doesn't sound like a recipe for success, but you never know with relief pitching. A high ground ball rate in front of a solid defensive infield will always give him better ERAs than FIPs, so that's good
03-30-2017 11:13 AM
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Post: #67
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-30-2017 09:19 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 04:56 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 01:49 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 12:53 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 08:57 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Chris Marrero (who probably won't even make our roster) also has 8 spring training HR. I'm not saying I don't believe in Harper, but I'm so skeptical of spring training stats. I think that projection is mostly fair. I mean how many HR would you project? I think 40 is a bit bullish for a projection

I think 99% of the time spring training stats are meaningless. But 1% of the time it does translate. When a great player has a spring like what Harper has had- it can be a real sign of a possible huge season....

why I think the 30 hr projection is unreasonable is that is his average per 162 games right now for his career. I think if he stays healthy 35-40 is much more of a realistic projection- and even there I might lean towards the over.

i think 35 is fair, but I wouldn't predict more than that. I mean the last 3 seasons were 24, 42 and 13. I don't think there's much of a pattern in that. In short, i wouldn't be surprised with anything between 30-40. I mean, his career ISOs are:
2012: .206
2013: .212
2014: .151
2015: .319
2016: .198

So basically you're predicting another .300+ season. I could certainly see it happening, but it's definitely bullish

I look at it this way: Harper is a young, emotional player. Athletes like that thrive on confidence and hitting well in the spring builds confidence. If I was a Nats fan I'd be optimistic.

Seriously? You don't think this is a bit of a stretch?

Forget the numbers. Qualitatively, I'd guess Harper is more likely to have a good season following a good spring than not. In 2-3 years, as he matures, settles into routines, (and generally has the fun wiped out of the game by its unwritten rules and "baseball the right way" BS), I'd be less inclined to think this way.
03-30-2017 01:49 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #68
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-30-2017 11:13 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Nats going with Treinen as the closer. 4+ BB per 9 each of the last 2 seasons. Doesn't sound like a recipe for success, but you never know with relief pitching. A high ground ball rate in front of a solid defensive infield will always give him better ERAs than FIPs, so that's good

They just need to hang around the top of the division until mid-season. Somebody will be available. If they can't/don't make a trade then, making/advancing in playoffs could be a struggle.
03-30-2017 01:50 PM
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Post: #69
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-30-2017 09:18 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 05:01 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 02:37 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 02:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so Familia gets a 15 game suspension to start the season for the Mets in that domestic violence case.

Kind of interesting in that it's at a relatively speaking easy period of the schedule. 3 Braves, 3 Marlins, 3 @ Phils, 4 @ Marlins, and then 2 more with Philly. He'd have only 1 game back before a 3 game with the Nats. So 2 things. 1st off, if there's any rainouts, he could miss the Nats series or at least 1-2 games of it. But 2nd off, they might lose a game or 2 in the 15 games he is out that they wouldn't necessarily count on.

My concern here is that none of these DV cases ever seem to go to court. I mean, we shouldn't rely on MLB to punish Familia, Reyes or Chapman and especially not prematurely. I'm not saying they don't deserve punishment, but rather that punishment should first and foremost come from the court system and then the person's employer

Problem is that burden of proof is so different. Something less than reasonable doubt doesn't mean a punishable act didnt occur.

That's true, but unfortunately it's for the court system to fix this, not MLB

Why can't an employer discipline his/her employee for an act that violates the rules of the organization? Or are you saying MLB shouldn't have those kinds of rules? I'd hate to see a situation where a guy clearly did something that harmed the league and/or team, but team couldn't take action because the player isn't convicted.
03-30-2017 01:54 PM
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Post: #70
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Final thought in this posting flurry: One of those things that makes you go hmm... Rich Hill stats this spring: 12⅓ innings, 14 walks, 13 strikeouts, 12 runs, 11 earned runs, 8.03 ERA. Add last spring with Oakland and over two springs: 27 runs, 29 walks and 22 strikeouts in 24⅓ innings, 9.62 ERA. Gonna be stoic about spring like my man swoosh, but damn...
(This post was last modified: 03-30-2017 01:57 PM by Brookes Owl.)
03-30-2017 01:57 PM
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Post: #71
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-30-2017 01:54 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(03-30-2017 09:18 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 05:01 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 02:37 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 02:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so Familia gets a 15 game suspension to start the season for the Mets in that domestic violence case.

Kind of interesting in that it's at a relatively speaking easy period of the schedule. 3 Braves, 3 Marlins, 3 @ Phils, 4 @ Marlins, and then 2 more with Philly. He'd have only 1 game back before a 3 game with the Nats. So 2 things. 1st off, if there's any rainouts, he could miss the Nats series or at least 1-2 games of it. But 2nd off, they might lose a game or 2 in the 15 games he is out that they wouldn't necessarily count on.

My concern here is that none of these DV cases ever seem to go to court. I mean, we shouldn't rely on MLB to punish Familia, Reyes or Chapman and especially not prematurely. I'm not saying they don't deserve punishment, but rather that punishment should first and foremost come from the court system and then the person's employer

Problem is that burden of proof is so different. Something less than reasonable doubt doesn't mean a punishable act didnt occur.

That's true, but unfortunately it's for the court system to fix this, not MLB

Why can't an employer discipline his/her employee for an act that violates the rules of the organization? Or are you saying MLB shouldn't have those kinds of rules? I'd hate to see a situation where a guy clearly did something that harmed the league and/or team, but team couldn't take action because the player isn't convicted.

I'm not saying the employer doesn't have a right to suspend its employee for potential misconduct, but it seems like people expect each respective league to sort of become the final arbiter of justice. Fact is, the leagues should not be expected to decide what is or isn't a fair punishment. They do the best they can, but ultimately these acts are crimes, not PED cases
03-30-2017 03:27 PM
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Post: #72
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-30-2017 01:50 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(03-30-2017 11:13 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Nats going with Treinen as the closer. 4+ BB per 9 each of the last 2 seasons. Doesn't sound like a recipe for success, but you never know with relief pitching. A high ground ball rate in front of a solid defensive infield will always give him better ERAs than FIPs, so that's good

They just need to hang around the top of the division until mid-season. Somebody will be available. If they can't/don't make a trade then, making/advancing in playoffs could be a struggle.

agreed. Just saying I don't think anyone should be stoked about Treinen being their closer
03-30-2017 03:28 PM
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Post: #73
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-30-2017 01:49 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(03-30-2017 09:19 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 04:56 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 01:49 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(03-29-2017 12:53 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think 99% of the time spring training stats are meaningless. But 1% of the time it does translate. When a great player has a spring like what Harper has had- it can be a real sign of a possible huge season....

why I think the 30 hr projection is unreasonable is that is his average per 162 games right now for his career. I think if he stays healthy 35-40 is much more of a realistic projection- and even there I might lean towards the over.

i think 35 is fair, but I wouldn't predict more than that. I mean the last 3 seasons were 24, 42 and 13. I don't think there's much of a pattern in that. In short, i wouldn't be surprised with anything between 30-40. I mean, his career ISOs are:
2012: .206
2013: .212
2014: .151
2015: .319
2016: .198

So basically you're predicting another .300+ season. I could certainly see it happening, but it's definitely bullish

I look at it this way: Harper is a young, emotional player. Athletes like that thrive on confidence and hitting well in the spring builds confidence. If I was a Nats fan I'd be optimistic.

Seriously? You don't think this is a bit of a stretch?

Forget the numbers. Qualitatively, I'd guess Harper is more likely to have a good season following a good spring than not. In 2-3 years, as he matures, settles into routines, (and generally has the fun wiped out of the game by its unwritten rules and "baseball the right way" BS), I'd be less inclined to think this way.

What is he had a spring where he hit .250 with 4 HR? Would that change the projections? Sure, you don't want him to totally suck in spring, but I really wouldn't worry about it too much
03-30-2017 03:29 PM
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Post: #74
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-30-2017 01:57 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Final thought in this posting flurry: One of those things that makes you go hmm... Rich Hill stats this spring: 12⅓ innings, 14 walks, 13 strikeouts, 12 runs, 11 earned runs, 8.03 ERA. Add last spring with Oakland and over two springs: 27 runs, 29 walks and 22 strikeouts in 24⅓ innings, 9.62 ERA. Gonna be stoic about spring like my man swoosh, but damn...

Yup, I would not worry about it. He throws multiple curve balls, so maybe he's tuning all of them up. For some guys, spring training is just about going through the motions and working up the arm strength. For others like Cueto there are a lot of moving parts and pitches to practice. Check out what Cueto did last spring. One of the only things that really bothers me is a major velocity decrease, like Greinke. He's been sitting at 88-90 and I think that's something to be concerned about
03-30-2017 03:32 PM
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Post: #75
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-30-2017 03:27 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  ...it seems like people expect each respective league to sort of become the final arbiter of justice.

And if by "people" you mean "media" I think I see where you are and we are in agreement. The criminal justice system is not perfect and often guys who probably should end up in jail for their actions get off with slaps on the wrist, if that. And the media then cry for the leagues/teams to make up for flaws in the justice system. That's wrong. But I'll be honest: I'm already losing interest in pro sports and it's not going to help if I'm being asked to watch guys who probably (if not certainly) commit violent acts against their families. But a league/owner should be free to address employee discipline however they feel best. Then I can vote with my pocketbook how I feel about it. Seems fair all around.
03-30-2017 04:17 PM
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Post: #76
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-30-2017 04:17 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(03-30-2017 03:27 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  ...it seems like people expect each respective league to sort of become the final arbiter of justice.

And if by "people" you mean "media" I think I see where you are and we are in agreement. The criminal justice system is not perfect and often guys who probably should end up in jail for their actions get off with slaps on the wrist, if that. And the media then cry for the leagues/teams to make up for flaws in the justice system. That's wrong. But I'll be honest: I'm already losing interest in pro sports and it's not going to help if I'm being asked to watch guys who probably (if not certainly) commit violent acts against their families. But a league/owner should be free to address employee discipline however they feel best. Then I can vote with my pocketbook how I feel about it. Seems fair all around.

we are definitely in agreement
03-31-2017 07:52 AM
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Post: #77
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Braves with a bad break with what happened with I 85 in Atlanta collapsing. Going to make traffic there really bad for a while.
03-31-2017 01:01 PM
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Post: #78
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-31-2017 01:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Braves with a bad break with what happened with I 85 in Atlanta collapsing. Going to make traffic there really bad for a while.

don't know sh*t about atlanta. I assume that's bad?
03-31-2017 01:32 PM
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Post: #79
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Day one and already one blown save for the Giants. This time courtesy of Derek Law in the 8th. Management has done such a horrible job of developing relievers
04-02-2017 05:54 PM
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Post: #80
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
And now Melancon blows a save right after Posey is incapable getting a runner home from third with one out. Just like last year, the hitters c can't get the job done and the relievers can't protect a one run lead. Casilla could've done this
04-02-2017 06:31 PM
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