(07-04-2017 09:18 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(07-04-2017 08:36 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(07-03-2017 11:37 PM)stever20 Wrote:  In short with both races, the W/L record is pretty meaningless. ERA is a LOT bigger. The only time when W/L means much with voting is if a guy that 20 wins or something like that.

You keep arguing how voters OUGHT to vote but that's not how they DO vote.

Actually win loss record has meant less in the last 5-6 years. Really since King Felix won the Cy Young award with a 13-12 record- but with a 2.27 ERA. That year David Price was 19-6 2.72 and CC Sabathia was 21-7 with a 3.18. That year, in the predictor, Felix was #7.

I just think to voters the ERA and strikeouts(in that order) mean more than just W-L record. If Scherzer has a sub 2 ERA(to a 2.50 ERA for Kershaw) and has 50 more K's than Kershaw has- 2-3 more wins isn't overcoming that.

Stop arguing the Scherzer/Kershaw strawman; nobody disagrees with you.
ERA and Ks mean more, but not enough to rule out W-L as much as you'd like/think. Your example is from 2010, and you're looking at the Bill James predictor, which pretty clearly mirrors the earlier voting tendency to favor wins. But the Tom Tango predictor takes that into account. It had Hernandez winning. And the Tom Tango predictor, right now, has Kluber 6th in the AL. He's got a lot of work to do just to become a threat, let alone win.

ok lets look at this years race so far-
Sale 52.9
Vargas 45.1
Keuchel 39.7
Santana 36.3
McCullers 34.8
Kluber 34.7

Kluber could if he has a 8 inning 0 run 10 k win start on Sunday night be up to 3rd place in that.

the thing that folks need to remember with that predictor is that you can have like 4-5 point starts pretty easily. I mean, Kluber in his last 7 starts has averaged getting 4.27 points per start.

Also, I think the tracker counts innings pitched too much. Look at 2014. Kershaw threw 45 fewer innings than 2nd guy(Cueto). In the tracker as a result of that extra 22.5 points, it was only a 0.1 pt difference. But in reality, Kershaw was unanimous.

And look at this year. A lot of the current 18 point difference is the 16 point (32 innings divided by 2) difference in innings pitched between Sale and Kluber.

(07-05-2017 10:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing that folks need to remember with that predictor is that you can have like 4-5 point starts pretty easily.

Yeah, but that applies to everybody. The point isn't that Kluber can't improve his "score"; it's that he has to improve it relative to everyone in front of him already. Much more difficult.

Quote:Also, I think the tracker counts innings pitched too much.

OK

Look, it's a model, and a model for voting behavior at that. It's only as good as its data and its assumptions, and the data are solid. The assumptions are the challenge but the models have been remarkably successful at correctly predicting outcomes.

My opinion is that the voters still put too much emphasis on stats that are beyond a pitcher's control, but that's a different debate.

(07-05-2017 05:25 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(07-05-2017 10:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing that folks need to remember with that predictor is that you can have like 4-5 point starts pretty easily.

Yeah, but that applies to everybody. The point isn't that Kluber can't improve his "score"; it's that he has to improve it relative to everyone in front of him already. Much more difficult.

Quote:Also, I think the tracker counts innings pitched too much.

OK

Look, it's a model, and a model for voting behavior at that. It's only as good as its data and its assumptions, and the data are solid. The assumptions are the challenge but the models have been remarkably successful at correctly predicting outcomes.

My opinion is that the voters still put too much emphasis on stats that are beyond a pitcher's control, but that's a different debate.

You see, I don't think the model was all that accurate in 2014 when the model said it was pick 'em between Kershaw and Cueto and it was unanimous in reality.

As far as him being 6th- yeah he's 6th but he's only 1.6 points outside of 4th. And 5 out of 3rd- and the guy in 3rd hasn't pitched in a month- and Kluber will get another start at least more before he starts to pitch again. This time next week, Kluber could easily be in 3rd place. And given that just about all the gap is innings related, which IMO is pretty much meaningless to voters at the end of the year, it's wide open. To me, Kluber is the guy who is the biggest threat to Sale for the Cy Young race, and it's not close really.

as far as the comment that voters put too much emphasis on stats that are beyond a pitchers control- I think that's really a load of crap. I think ERA does factor in quite a bit and a lot of those factors pitchers can control. But my problem with the advanced metrics like I've said is that it ignores stuff that pitchers can absolutely control. The fact that the FIP completely ignores non homer extra base hits is just a joke. I'd venture a guess that 95% of all extra base hits are the pitchers fault. Sure you might get a bloop double or something like that- but then also you have where a defensive player makes a great play. It evens out. But to have those completely ignored is rather comical.

wow saw thing on ESPN talking about the Dodgers.... is this best team ever for them?
top team ever for Dodgers was 1974. 102-60. .630 winning pct. Well right now, the Dodgers winning pct is .663. Haven't won more than 95 games in 40 years(man, that's amazing).

And look at the schedule the rest of the way. 76 games- with 47 of them vs losing teams. Of first 36 games after the break, only 6 are vs winning teams.

got good news/bad news for Swoosh....

The good news- Madbum is back pitching in the minors with his 3rd rehab start last night.

the bad news- he gave up 9 runs and 4 homers vs Dodgers A level team. Which is remarkable given he's never given up more than 8 runs or 3 homers in the MLB ever.

well, Sale with a pretty mediocre start tonight- 4 runs in 7 innings. with a 1.7 start in the tracker that we were using.

So right now Sale has a 11-3 record with a 2.75 ERA
Kluber is 7-3 with a 2.85 ERA

Kluber has gotten close enough to where if he can keep running up the great starts, he could easily get into the race, if not winning the race. And Sale's got a history repeatedly of fading 2nd half.

(07-06-2017 08:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  well, Sale with a pretty mediocre start tonight- 4 runs in 7 innings. with a 1.7 start in the tracker that we were using.

So right now Sale has a 11-3 record with a 2.75 ERA
Kluber is 7-3 with a 2.85 ERA

Kluber has gotten close enough to where if he can keep running up the great starts, he could easily get into the race, if not winning the race. And Sale's got a history repeatedly of fading 2nd half.

except for the fact that Sale has thrown 39 more innings and has 4 more wins

(07-07-2017 11:53 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(07-06-2017 08:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  well, Sale with a pretty mediocre start tonight- 4 runs in 7 innings. with a 1.7 start in the tracker that we were using.

So right now Sale has a 11-3 record with a 2.75 ERA
Kluber is 7-3 with a 2.85 ERA

Kluber has gotten close enough to where if he can keep running up the great starts, he could easily get into the race, if not winning the race. And Sale's got a history repeatedly of fading 2nd half.

except for the fact that Sale has thrown 39 more innings and has 4 more wins

Like I've said, innings gap is pretty much meaningless at the end of the year. As long as Kluber can get to the 180-200 innings range, he'll have a chance. Also, that gap will shrink on Sunday as Kluber will start that night. If your biggest credential is you have more innings, you have nothing. Kluber was pitcher of the month for June, and he started July off great- 1 run in 8 innings.

I just think Sale is far more vulnerable than you want to think he is. If the season ends with
Kluber 15-4 with a 2.25 ERA in 195 innings
Sale 18-6 with a 2.90 ERA in 225 innings

I just don't see Sale having much of a shot. Kluber would have put together a 4 month stretch that is very much similar to Arrieta in '15. Except that Kluber is viewed by the advanced metrics far better than Arrieta.
So
Kluber would have given up 49 runs in 195 innings to get a 2.26 ERA.
rest of way- 21 ER in 106.2 innings- or a 1.77 ERA
Sale would have given up 72 runs in 225 innings to get a 2.88 ERA
rest of way- 33 ER in 97.3 innings- or a 3.05 ERA

if you add in June/so far in July-
Kluber would have given up 28 ER in 157.2 innings- or a 1.60 ERA

So tell me how exactly Sale would have much of a shot? Sale would need to have a pretty darn good 2nd half of the season to beat them.

While I don't think it's a tie right now, I think Sale would get it, if Kluber can keep on pitching as well as he has been these last 7 starts, Kluber will make it a virtual tie in a start or two, and then it's game on from there. Kluber has forced the issue in June/July
Sale- 5-2 2.72 6/68 bb k ratio
Kluber 4-1 1.24 8/74 bb k ratio

so I was wrong about Sale's start last night in the tracker. It was only a 0.7 pt start not a 1.7 pt start....
http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/C...rtDir=desc

Kluber passed McCullers who had a 5 runs in 4.2 innings debacle and dropped by 2.5 points. And Kluber is the only guy in the top 5 currently that has a start left before the all star break- so he's the only one who could improve their situation before the break.

Man just looking at the pitching stats since June 1- it's just amazing what Scherzer has done. He's had in 6 starts a whopping 0.83 ERA. Kluber has been great as well- 1.24- but Scherzer that much better than him even.

So don't want to overstate it- but to me a pretty big win for the Nats tonight. Were down 4-1 to the Braves in the 9th- Braves with a shot to get back within 7.5 games with 2 more games left this weekend. but 3 run 9th then a walk off single by Murphy in the 10th to give the Nats a 5-4 win. Will be interesting to see how the Braves react to the loss these next 2 days.

Oh, and of COURSE I jinxed Max Scherzer tonight. 4 runs in 7.2 innings. Or as many earned runs as he had given in since June 1st.

(07-07-2017 12:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I just think Sale is far more vulnerable than you want to think he is. If the season ends with
Kluber 15-4 with a 2.25 ERA in 195 innings
Sale 18-6 with a 2.90 ERA in 225 innings

<snip>

So tell me how exactly Sale would have much of a shot? Sale would need to have a pretty darn good 2nd half of the season to beat them.

With those numbers, if Sale also has 300 Ks (very realistic), he wins.

(07-09-2017 12:32 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(07-07-2017 12:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I just think Sale is far more vulnerable than you want to think he is. If the season ends with
Kluber 15-4 with a 2.25 ERA in 195 innings
Sale 18-6 with a 2.90 ERA in 225 innings

<snip>

So tell me how exactly Sale would have much of a shot? Sale would need to have a pretty darn good 2nd half of the season to beat them.

With those numbers, if Sale also has 300 Ks (very realistic), he wins.

Except after tonight, Sale has a 176-123 K difference- and since June 1, Kluber has actually struck out 14 more guys than Sale has. So if the gap is 300-250, that's going to be pretty much meaningless....

I mean- looking at it with the tracker.
Sale- 18-6 72 ER in 225 innings- or a 2.88 ERA with 300 k's- 88.5 pts
Kluber- 15-4 49 ER in 195 innings- or a 2.26 ERA with 250 k's- 88.5 pts

so a tie. With Kluber being MUCH stronger since June 1.

Kluber is a guy that Sale can't use the strikeout card and have it be all that overwhelming.

(07-09-2017 08:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(07-09-2017 12:32 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(07-07-2017 12:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I just think Sale is far more vulnerable than you want to think he is. If the season ends with
Kluber 15-4 with a 2.25 ERA in 195 innings
Sale 18-6 with a 2.90 ERA in 225 innings

<snip>

So tell me how exactly Sale would have much of a shot? Sale would need to have a pretty darn good 2nd half of the season to beat them.

With those numbers, if Sale also has 300 Ks (very realistic), he wins.

Except after tonight, Sale has a 176-123 K difference- and since June 1, Kluber has actually struck out 14 more guys than Sale has. So if the gap is 300-250, that's going to be pretty much meaningless....

I mean- looking at it with the tracker.
Sale- 18-6 72 ER in 225 innings- or a 2.88 ERA with 300 k's- 88.5 pts
Kluber- 15-4 49 ER in 195 innings- or a 2.26 ERA with 250 k's- 88.5 pts

so a tie. With Kluber being MUCH stronger since June 1.

Kluber is a guy that Sale can't use the strikeout card and have it be all that overwhelming.

Why are you expecting Kluber to have a 2.26 ERA? He'd have to be AMAZING the rest of the way. Like peak Kershaw

(07-09-2017 09:15 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(07-09-2017 08:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(07-09-2017 12:32 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(07-07-2017 12:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I just think Sale is far more vulnerable than you want to think he is. If the season ends with
Kluber 15-4 with a 2.25 ERA in 195 innings
Sale 18-6 with a 2.90 ERA in 225 innings

<snip>

So tell me how exactly Sale would have much of a shot? Sale would need to have a pretty darn good 2nd half of the season to beat them.

With those numbers, if Sale also has 300 Ks (very realistic), he wins.

Except after tonight, Sale has a 176-123 K difference- and since June 1, Kluber has actually struck out 14 more guys than Sale has. So if the gap is 300-250, that's going to be pretty much meaningless....

I mean- looking at it with the tracker.
Sale- 18-6 72 ER in 225 innings- or a 2.88 ERA with 300 k's- 88.5 pts
Kluber- 15-4 49 ER in 195 innings- or a 2.26 ERA with 250 k's- 88.5 pts

so a tie. With Kluber being MUCH stronger since June 1.

Kluber is a guy that Sale can't use the strikeout card and have it be all that overwhelming.

Why are you expecting Kluber to have a 2.26 ERA? He'd have to be AMAZING the rest of the way. Like peak Kershaw

He would have to finish the season with about a 1.80 ERA in the 2nd half.

I look at the 2014 season where Kluber won the Cy Young.
1st half- he had a 3.01 ERA in 20 starts.
2nd half- he had a 1.73 ERA in 14 starts.

my point is simple. If he puts together a 2nd half like in 2014, Sale will have to be pretty damn good to beat that. Sale would have to pitch better than he has so far this year to be able to top that.

I think the race right now is pretty easy. If either Sale or Kluber has a great 2nd half, they're going to win the award.

looking at the same thing I did last year- if you take the division leaders and have them play .500 ball the rest of the way- what would it take to have someone beat them.....

AL East-
current leader- Boston 50-39 + 37-36 87-75
NYY would need 43-33 to beat them- 92 win pace. Current pace 85 wins +7

AL Central-
current leader- Cleveland 47-40 + 38-37 85-77
Min would need 41-33 to beat them- 90 win pace. Current pace 83 wins +7

AL West-
Current leader- Houston 60-29 + 37-36 97-65
LAA would need 53-17 to beat them- 123 win pace. Current pace 79 wins +44
Tex would need 55-19 to beat them- 120 win pace. Current pace 79 wins +41

NL East
current leader- Washington 52-36 + 37-37 89-73
Atl would need 48-27 to beat them- 104 win pace. Current pace 78 wins +26

NL Central
current leader- Milwaukee 50-41 + 36-35 86-76
Chi/Stl would need 44-30 to beat them- 96 win pace. Current pace 79 wins +17

NL West
current leader- LA Dodgers 61-29 + 36-36 97-75
Ari would need 45-28 to beat them- 100 win pace. Current pace 96 wins +4

NL Wild card also is a bit of a reach-
current leader- Colorado 52-39 + 36-35 88-74
Chi/Stl would need 46-28 to beat them- 101 win pace. Current pace 79 wins +22

I think folks would be surprised by the Brewers and what they need to do to win. But their schedule gets real nasty starting July 25- 42 game stretch that includes
7 with Washington
6 with Cubs
5 with St Louis
3 with Tampa
4 with Twins
3 in Colorado
3 with Dodgers

then end season with 4 with Cubs and 3 with Cardinals in last 10 days.

(07-09-2017 09:41 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(07-09-2017 09:15 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(07-09-2017 08:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(07-09-2017 12:32 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(07-07-2017 12:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I just think Sale is far more vulnerable than you want to think he is. If the season ends with
Kluber 15-4 with a 2.25 ERA in 195 innings
Sale 18-6 with a 2.90 ERA in 225 innings

<snip>

So tell me how exactly Sale would have much of a shot? Sale would need to have a pretty darn good 2nd half of the season to beat them.

With those numbers, if Sale also has 300 Ks (very realistic), he wins.

Except after tonight, Sale has a 176-123 K difference- and since June 1, Kluber has actually struck out 14 more guys than Sale has. So if the gap is 300-250, that's going to be pretty much meaningless....

I mean- looking at it with the tracker.
Sale- 18-6 72 ER in 225 innings- or a 2.88 ERA with 300 k's- 88.5 pts
Kluber- 15-4 49 ER in 195 innings- or a 2.26 ERA with 250 k's- 88.5 pts

so a tie. With Kluber being MUCH stronger since June 1.

Kluber is a guy that Sale can't use the strikeout card and have it be all that overwhelming.

Why are you expecting Kluber to have a 2.26 ERA? He'd have to be AMAZING the rest of the way. Like peak Kershaw

He would have to finish the season with about a 1.80 ERA in the 2nd half.

I look at the 2014 season where Kluber won the Cy Young.
1st half- he had a 3.01 ERA in 20 starts.
2nd half- he had a 1.73 ERA in 14 starts.

my point is simple. If he puts together a 2nd half like in 2014, Sale will have to be pretty damn good to beat that. Sale would have to pitch better than he has so far this year to be able to top that.

I think the race right now is pretty easy. If either Sale or Kluber has a great 2nd half, they're going to win the award.

If Sale ends with a 3.00 ERA and Kluber is at 2.70 with 30 fewer innings and 4 fewer wins, Sale will win it.

Ryan Zimmerman wRC+ and ISO by month:
April: 241 / .466
May: 133 / .223
June: 104 / .185
July: 30 / .000

The July sample size is obviously small, but those numbers are not trending in the right direction. Of course while that's been happening, Rendon has gone supernova. His fWAR is already 4.1. Helluva season and he isn't even in Miami right now. What a joke. Just put him at 2B and play ball