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FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
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NoDak Offline
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Post: #21
RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
Delaware has apparently backed off its past stated policy of no FBS. They will do what JMU, Stony Brook, and Albany as they don't want to be left with the dregs of the CAA.
02-17-2017 01:53 PM
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YNot Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
UMass, Stony Brook, Delaware, JMU, Youngstown St., and Liberty (and perhaps Villanova?) would be a decent scheduling association, if nothing else. You could even include some same-season home-home games, if needed to meet FBS minimum scheduling requirements. Though, Stony Brook and Villanova have a ways to go with attendance.

With the no-FCS rule, B1G would be all over scheduling these schools for payday home games.
02-17-2017 02:51 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
(02-17-2017 01:53 PM)NoDak Wrote:  Delaware has apparently backed off its past stated policy of no FBS. They will do what JMU, Stony Brook, and Albany as they don't want to be left with the dregs of the CAA.

Delaware has been in the CAA with Towson, JMU, and W&M since 2001, and playing football under the CAA banner since 2007. Definitely don't see Towson or W&M moving up, so I would say JMU and Delaware could possibly partner for a move.

Don't think Stony Brook, and definitely not Albany, matter one bit.
02-17-2017 03:41 PM
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
(02-17-2017 01:46 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  
(02-17-2017 12:53 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(02-17-2017 12:34 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  
(02-17-2017 11:44 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(02-17-2017 10:55 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I know many of you are too young to remember when Independent football was not that uncommon. I actually am for it. I doubt the P5 will have issues with it because it provides more home games for them. I do see why the G5 will hate it, because it harms them more financially. My problem with the G5 argument, the is unfair for the P5 to make more money but is ok for the G5 to be against FBS independents because it could impact their profit. I a free market person, the market will bear what it wants.

Using the 15K rule for FBS and 2015 attendance. Here are my predictions on next Independents.

1. Montana 7 168,975 24,139 Strong Contender. Really should be in MWC and Replace Hawaii who should go Indy.
2. Jacksonville St. 8 164,781 20,598 Has show strong interest but finance is big question.
3. Yale 4 82,189 20,547 Does anything need to be said?
4. James Madison 7 136,483 19,498 Strong Contender. Really should be in SBC but missed the ship
5. Montana St. 6 115,032 19,172 Strong Contender. Could be start of Big Sky/WAC rehash.
6. Liberty 5 94,950 18,990 Done Deal
7. North Dakota St. 9 166,472 18,497 Should have happened with Libery
8. Southern U. 4 73,239 18,310 Finance is big question. Especially La state finances.
9. Delaware 6 94,954 15,826 Probably most surprising and deserving. Be a great fit with UMASS.
10. South Carolina St. 5 78,147 15,629 With Coastal might be hard
11. Florida A&M 4 60,240 15,060 Florida already FBS overload
12. N.C. A&T 5 74,940 14,988 NC already FBS overload doubt there is room for 8th FBS team
13. Youngstown St. 6 89,125 14,854 Similar to Delaware and is a football town. Very Marshall type program.

I don't think that many schools will follow LU.

Lets move through them.

1) Montana. Could try for it. But it would be terribly expensive. And they wouldn't get in the MWC. Idaho is committed to moving down. Barring a massive move out of FCS, there will be no FBS WAC or Big Sky.
2) Jacksonville State. Wants to jump. Badly. But they're poor and they're not in an economically or demographically growing area. Small enrollment. And there are THREE P5 programs and FIVE FBS programs within two hours of the school. And all of those schools have better media access than JSU. I don't see them being successful at jumping. Also, their current conference will probably kick them out.
3) Ivy league schools will not be jumping. Period
4) JMU might jump, but seeing as they turned down the Sun Belt, which will probably have better scheduling, will have more money, and will have better bowl access, I don't see them jumping now. Possible, but unlikely.
5) Montana State - See Montana
6) Liberty - They're jumping.
7) NDSU - Could jump. Probably the best team on the table.
8) SWAC teams aren't jumping
9) Delaware appears to be not interested at this time
10) MEAC teams aren't jumping.
13) Possible but its really expensive for them to do so. They would be the EIGHTH FBS program in Ohio.

---

Guys, this comes down to money. Without the CFP money, and with the extra (and more expensive) coaches and scholarships involved with moving up, and without a conference or a scheduling alliance of nearby teams, moving to FBS gets really expensive really quickly. And that's before facilities come into play.

Good analysis.
What I believe is that only wealthy private schools could make the jump to FBS Indy who have facilities already that are FBS level or can get there with little effort and have had the attendance to support.
That puts the list at:

Villanova - While looking into FBS with the Big East, being Indy gives them more flexibility to meet their own needs instead of a conference.

Lehigh - has a 16k seated facility but has bowl in the endzone for additional berm seating. Could easily add with minimal $$.

Lafayette - While having 13.5k seating, they have additional room to add for expansion. Would be a mid $$ to improve, but they have the fan support to go along with it.

Both Lehigh and Lafayette could move up at the same time and have the oldest rivalry in the college football. Both have good football facilities and are able to expand or improve with minor $$

Holy Cross - Already has a nice 24k football facility.

These 4 are probably the best that could jump to Indy status. While there are others like Richmond, they don't have the facilities or support to make a big jump to FBS.

Some other thoughts. Enough independents could form a conference. 2020 is the new bowl deals, so Liberty could work out deals like Army and BYU. Also, Liberty does have enough money in the bank to hold out but the new CFP will be renegotiated so new FBS schools will be included. So schools can start transitioning in from 2019-2021 and will be part of the new deal.

Just saying I have a feeling there will be some sort of clause allowing a new conference to be be part of the G5 in the next contract. Remember, P5 wants to avoid any appearance of anti-trust. This is the reason the CFP was setup different than the FBS. All it needs to do is appear inclusive and provide paths. Why you have the all in commercials showing every conference. Also see Independents grouped with the G5 for NYD bowl game in the next deal. Hey, I will just be happy to be alive to see the next deal.

Regarding the bold comment, there is no way for a group of Indy schools to form a new conference. The FBS can't form a football only conference.
Same rules apply to forming a new conference out of a rag-tag group of schools. The 8 year continuity would still need to be met and then after that, they would need to get approval from the D1 council and give up an at-large spot in the NCAA tourney.
Since these schools would be part of an existing D1 conference, they don't need a new conference. What they will have is a group that can be able to schedule each other as a loose group association.
No one said football only, they would have to bring all sports. 03-banghead Yes and Liberty could never be FBS according to current rules. Oh wait, there is a thing called a waver. 04-chairshot
02-17-2017 03:54 PM
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NoDak Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
(02-17-2017 03:41 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  
(02-17-2017 01:53 PM)NoDak Wrote:  Delaware has apparently backed off its past stated policy of no FBS. They will do what JMU, Stony Brook, and Albany as they don't want to be left with the dregs of the CAA.

Delaware has been in the CAA with Towson, JMU, and W&M since 2001, and playing football under the CAA banner since 2007. Definitely don't see Towson or W&M moving up, so I would say JMU and Delaware could possibly partner for a move.

Don't think Stony Brook, and definitely not Albany, matter one bit.

You mean Delaware doesn't care about academics? Stony Brook is AAU and is in the process of fundraising for a 25k expansion and an IPF. Albany's stadium is designed to be expanded to at least 24k and has major academic and research upgrades in the works. Delaware wants to hang around them much more than Towson.
(This post was last modified: 02-17-2017 03:57 PM by NoDak.)
02-17-2017 03:55 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
(02-17-2017 03:55 PM)NoDak Wrote:  You mean Delaware doesn't care about academics?

"Academics" isn't entirely predicated on research.


(02-17-2017 03:55 PM)NoDak Wrote:  Stony Brook is AAU and is in the process of fundraising for a 25k expansion and an IPF.

Yes, AAU and good research. Those are nice. So are several schools that don't have much athletics to speak of.

E Washington tried to fundraise for a stadium upgrade too. Until it happens, you can't count it.


But I'll take Stony Brook a million times over Albany. Albany is nothing. It's a teachers college, with low research and low level athletics. It built a new stadium, but I think seating capacity was like 8.5k? Which is just fine for them -- they don't need more than that, for good reason.

There are no research "upgrades" coming there, either. The NanoTech Center has nothing to do with Albany. That's SUNY Poly, an entirely separate university.


(02-17-2017 03:55 PM)NoDak Wrote:  Delaware wants to hang around them much more than Towson.

Didn't say anything about Towson, other than to describe where Delaware has been the last ~16 years.

So like I said, I think JMU is the main school they're watching.
02-17-2017 04:03 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
Villanova's people are saying to anyone who looks at them with this Liberty situation opening the door for others: "didn't we make it clear the last time to go bugger off?"

Their way to FBS is the same as it's been for some time now: ACC or bust.

As for others, who's really in a place where they don't want to be, and feel like they should be somewhere higher or more distinguished? That's what Liberty is here. A lot of the programs that could support FBS are completely fine with their other sports in their current home. Others, if they moved football to FBS independence, could probably kiss their conference membership for other sports goodbye. That leaves the list trimmed.

Stony Brook comes to mind, if only because they sound so cryptic with their goals from the Seawolves United campaign. Clearly, football is a factor, and, also quite clear: AmEast or CAA can't give them what they want. And since AmEast doesn't sponsor the sport, SBU can't jeopardize its ollies. But, Stony's target was 2020. And, that's if they hit their target.
02-17-2017 04:28 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
Well Stony and NDSU are actually two examples where football is independent from the rest of the sports, because the main conference (America East and Summit, resp.) don't sponsor football.

The interesting thing will be to see if Big South says Liberty has to leave if going FBS indy in football, or will let them stay in non-football. Probably the latter, I'm guessing they do well in other sports for the Big South.
(This post was last modified: 02-17-2017 04:33 PM by MplsBison.)
02-17-2017 04:33 PM
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SlyFox Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
Yes, we do exceptionally well in the other sports. But that might actually work against us when the league presidents vote. I think most of us expect the Big South to let us stay in the fold for now. But if they push us out, most expect us to land in the A-Sun on a temporary basis.
02-17-2017 04:48 PM
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billybobby777 Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
(02-17-2017 04:48 PM)SlyFox Wrote:  Yes, we do exceptionally well in the other sports. But that might actually work against us when the league presidents vote. I think most of us expect the Big South to let us stay in the fold for now. But if they push us out, most expect us to land in the A-Sun on a temporary basis.

You guys had a D-1 wrestling team for a year or two recently and then dropped it. Why?

Cheers!
02-17-2017 04:54 PM
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DavidSt Online
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
West Texas A&M is building an on campus stadium that could be expanding over 22,000 seats as capacity. I think they are aiming for FBS. I think their football program was put on probation for giving benefits like FCOAs to their players in football. Same with Arkansas Tech as well. There are several D2 schools looking at giving extra money on their scholarships for the hard cases of players like what is going on at the D1 level. It is still against the rules to give FCOAs to players of any sports in D2. This is a problem with D2 schools who have sports in D1 right now. Some of the D2 schools that have hockey at D1 are contemplating if they should go ahead and do a FCOAS for hockey, or move their whole programs up to D1.

Now as for FCS schools if they want to go Independent at FBS level? There are several who could get games going.

Big SKY:
Eastern Washington
Sacramento State
Cal-Davis
Cal-Poly
Portland State
Weber State
Northern Arizona
Montana
Montana State

Big South/ASun:
Coastal Carolina
Kennesaw State
North Alabama (added that they could get games with FBS schools since they were the last D2 schools that beat a FBS team)

CAA:
Towson
William & Mary
Villanova
Richmond
New Hampshire
Maine
James Madison
Albany
Stony Brook

MEAC:
South Carolina State
Bethune-Cookman
Florida A&M
Norfolk State
Savannah State

MVFC:
Northern Iowa
North Dakota
North Dakota State
South Dakota
South Dakota State
Missouri State
Southern Illinois
Western Illinois
Illinois State
Indiana State
Youngstown State

NEC:
? Maybe a Central Connecticut State?

OVC:
Eastern Kentucky
Jacksonville State
Tennessee State
Tenn.-Martin
Tenn. Tech
Eastern Illinois

Patriot:
Fordham
Lehigh
Lafayette
Bucknell
Holy Cross

Pioneer:
Jacksonville?
Dayton? Large student body and alumni which they could easily slip in as an FBS candidate if they do major fundraiser.

Southern:
Everybody

Southland:
everybody

SWAC:
Southern
Jackson State
Alabama State (rumored that they wanted to join the SBC)
Grambling State


These are the schools that played FBS schools a lot.

Future consideration?
West Texas A&M which would bring back a rivalry to New Mexico State, New Mexico, and UTEP and maybe Texas Tech. Very long history at D1 level.
North Florida could start up football. They were on the short list of Benson's as an expansion candidate.
Wisconsin-Milwaukee could actually help attract people to go back to Wisconsin as factory jobs are returning. Wisconsin needs another school in the FBS to keep people in state.
Another Minnesota schools. I think Mankato State could be hands down as the bigger name to move up.
Long Beach State hinted MWC, but they can't join unless they restart football.
Wichita State no need for saying.
Azusa Pacific is growing private college that could reach D1 soon like California Baptist and Grand Canyon.
Colorado Mesa could be interesting case. Their metro is larger than some FBS schools who are smaller. Colorado Mesa > Washington State's Metro.
Colorado State-Pueblo is in another very large city in Colorado.
Omaha, yes Omaha. We do need another Nebraska school in FBS which could help Nebraska residents to stay in state.
Canada schools. Simon Fraser, Calgary or British Columbia can help bring FBS football into that country. Imagine when they hold a bowl game in Canada between one of the Canada schools and a MAC team?

Remember, these schools could do a deal with the conferences already in FBS like play 5 games a year, and have a bowl tie in with that conference. Sun Belt could give the same deal with football to the schools in their footprint which includes Lamar, Missouri State, Central Arkansas, Jackson State, Jacksonville State, Alabama State, North Alabama, Kennesaw State, Chattanooga, and so forth.

PAC 12 could offer Boise State, San Diego State, Hawaii, and New Mexico a 5 game conference tie in without adding them for all sports. That could open 4 spots up in MWC for other schools. Big 12 could do the same with BYU, Colorado State, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati and East Carolina.
02-17-2017 05:20 PM
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NoDak Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
(02-17-2017 04:54 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(02-17-2017 04:48 PM)SlyFox Wrote:  Yes, we do exceptionally well in the other sports. But that might actually work against us when the league presidents vote. I think most of us expect the Big South to let us stay in the fold for now. But if they push us out, most expect us to land in the A-Sun on a temporary basis.

You guys had a D-1 wrestling team for a year or two recently and then dropped it. Why?

Cheers!

That might pave the way for FBS and men's hockey, whose rink had a recent major expansion recently.
02-17-2017 05:27 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
(02-17-2017 05:27 PM)NoDak Wrote:  That might pave the way for FBS and men's hockey, whose rink had a recent major expansion recently.

Liberty University presents "Televangelists on Ice!"
(This post was last modified: 02-17-2017 05:39 PM by MplsBison.)
02-17-2017 05:39 PM
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
(02-17-2017 04:33 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Well Stony and NDSU are actually two examples where football is independent of the rest of the sports because the main conference (America East and Summit, resp.) don't sponsor football.

The interesting thing will be to see if Big South says Liberty has to leave if going FBS indy in football or will let them stay in non-football. Probably the latter, I'm guessing they do well in other sports for the Big South.
Missouri St and U Mass are examples of schools turning away from FBS conference because their basketball conference is better.
JMU is a school who turned down an FBS invite for academic reasons.
This waiver gives the two who are not FBS an option that doesn't cost too much.
02-17-2017 07:12 PM
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MJG Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
(02-17-2017 05:39 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  
(02-17-2017 05:27 PM)NoDak Wrote:  That might pave the way for FBS and men's hockey, whose rink had a recent major expansion recently.

Liberty University presents "Televangelists on Ice!"

They have six ACHA teams and good facilities.
02-17-2017 07:13 PM
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ken d Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
(02-17-2017 07:12 PM)MJG Wrote:  
(02-17-2017 04:33 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Well Stony and NDSU are actually two examples where football is independent of the rest of the sports because the main conference (America East and Summit, resp.) don't sponsor football.

The interesting thing will be to see if Big South says Liberty has to leave if going FBS indy in football or will let them stay in non-football. Probably the latter, I'm guessing they do well in other sports for the Big South.
Missouri St and U Mass are examples of schools turning away from FBS conference because their basketball conference is better.
JMU is a school who turned down an FBS invite for academic reasons.
This waiver gives the two who are not FBS an option that doesn't cost too much.

How does a waiver to Liberty give other schools any options they didn't have before? Waivers are, by definition, applicable only to the school to whom they are given.
02-17-2017 07:46 PM
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msm96wolf Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
(02-17-2017 07:46 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(02-17-2017 07:12 PM)MJG Wrote:  
(02-17-2017 04:33 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Well Stony and NDSU are actually two examples where football is independent of the rest of the sports because the main conference (America East and Summit, resp.) don't sponsor football.

The interesting thing will be to see if Big South says Liberty has to leave if going FBS indy in football or will let them stay in non-football. Probably the latter, I'm guessing they do well in other sports for the Big South.
Missouri St and U Mass are examples of schools turning away from FBS conference because their basketball conference is better.
JMU is a school who turned down an FBS invite for academic reasons.
This waiver gives the two who are not FBS an option that doesn't cost too much.

How does a waiver to Liberty give other schools any options they didn't have before? Waivers are, by definition, applicable only to the school to whom they are given.

Once the first waiver occurs, it hard denies another waiver unless the NCAA gives the reason for the original waiver. NCAA hands waivers out like a PEZ dispenses candy.
02-17-2017 07:55 PM
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ken d Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
(02-17-2017 07:55 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(02-17-2017 07:46 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(02-17-2017 07:12 PM)MJG Wrote:  
(02-17-2017 04:33 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Well Stony and NDSU are actually two examples where football is independent of the rest of the sports because the main conference (America East and Summit, resp.) don't sponsor football.

The interesting thing will be to see if Big South says Liberty has to leave if going FBS indy in football or will let them stay in non-football. Probably the latter, I'm guessing they do well in other sports for the Big South.
Missouri St and U Mass are examples of schools turning away from FBS conference because their basketball conference is better.
JMU is a school who turned down an FBS invite for academic reasons.
This waiver gives the two who are not FBS an option that doesn't cost too much.

How does a waiver to Liberty give other schools any options they didn't have before? Waivers are, by definition, applicable only to the school to whom they are given.

Once the first waiver occurs, it hard denies another waiver unless the NCAA gives the reason for the original waiver. NCAA hands waivers out like a PEZ dispenses candy.

I think you're overestimating the significance of this.
02-17-2017 09:21 PM
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msm96wolf Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
I think Wichita St may be the next school to be requesting the waiver. That will be the tell tale sign if Liberty is one off.
02-17-2017 09:57 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
I don't know if Liberty makes the waiver case easier for others. Who's got pockets like they do? The facilities? Sustainability?

And viability? Didn't Liberty have to demonstrate they could sustain the minimum requirements for a FBS schedule; the minimum number of FBS home games? Does that mean Liberty's already got UMass, NMSU, and BYU as verbal commitments?

This is the first case, and it looks like that bar is set pretty high (at least with the financials and program infrastructure). If anything makes things easier, it's the growing pool of independents, making the scheduling component one of the easier challenges to accomplish.
02-18-2017 05:49 AM
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